Two Koreas 'at a turning point' says South president

[Jimbuna]

I doubt we'll witness much if any change :hmmm:


The Korean peninsula is at a "turning point" and there are opportunities for change, South Korean President Lee Myung-bak said in a new year speech.

On Sunday North Korea told citizens to defend leader Kim Jong-un to the death.


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-16380918

[STEED]

Change my rump, it's business as usual in the North.

[Jimbuna]

I thought tou were Luton area darn sarf :hmmm:

[Platapus]

Change will come slowly to North Korea.

Kim Jong Un (KJU) is not only a full generation removed from Kim Il Sung (KIS), KJU actually spent very little time with KIS. KJU spent most of his early life out of the country in school. The cultural and spiritual connection with KIS will not be as strong as with Kim Jong Il (KJI). KJU will still be honoured and will have many high ranking titles, but more of the running of the country will fall to others.

In a culture that values the elderly, KJU's age (at 28 he is the youngest head of state in the world) will further push him in a position of being a revered figurehead, but little actual power. KJI was 53 when he assumed power. It is also important to recognize that KJI has considerable political experience up to the death of KIS. KJU has relatively little.

It is popular myth to consider North Korea to be run solely by one person. The reality is far from that. There is considerable political rivalry and much of the power rests with official and unofficial cohorts amongst powerful and experienced politicians and military officers.

Looking at my crystal ball, I envision a period of increased rhetoric on the part of KJU and the North Korean government aimed at convincing the North Koreans that things are continuing as before but then after a year or two, deals with South Korea and China will be made.. perhaps clandestinely.

KJI was, domestically, a failed leader. Where KIS was able to use Juche for success, KJI continued the philosophy of Juche but had very few successes. The fact that KJI was the son of KIS, gave KJI a lot of slack with the North Korean people and intelligentsia. It is doubtful that such slack will be cut to KJU unless some domestic successes are forthcoming.

If US Foreign Policy was governed by logic, the best thing the US can do is throttle back the rhetoric and let things settle down. There will be no changes for perhaps a few years.

Diplomacy has been called the art of letting the other person have your way.

It is better for the North Korean government to "come up" with an idea that will result in a small change than for the US to push such an idea.

The short attention span of US Foreign Policy as well as our domestic politics will work against us. We need to focus on patience not pride.

This being an election year, I am not optimistic. While I am not sad that KJI died, I do wish he could have hung on until after our next election. It would have made our foreign policy decisions a little less affected by politics.