View Full Version : Will Egypt follow Tunisia's lead? (merged)
Cairo, Egypt (CNN) -- Thousands of people who filled the streets of Cairo on Tuesday hope their demonstrations against corruption and failing economic policies will cause upheaval in the government, like the similar protests in Tunisia that inspired them.But analysts caution that in Egypt, the protesters are up against a different set of challenges.
Juan Cole, a Middle East historian at the University of Michigan and blogger, describes Tunisia as "a little bit unique."
"There have been lots of civil wars. There's been lots of societies in turmoil. But this kind of phenomenon where you had crowds peacefully coming into the streets to demand a change in their own contract with their government -- in the Arab world proper, this is the first time it's happened and it's the first time since 1979 in the Middle East," Cole told CNN last week.
http://edition.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/africa/01/25/egypt.tunisia.analysis/index.html?hpt=C1
Note: January 25, 2011 Updated 1828 GMT
Will the Egyptian government come down? I doubt it, but it'll be a messy few days while the police restore order.
Algeria went up a few days back but the police cracked down on it hard, I imagine that we won't hear the end of that though.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/mattfrei/2011/01/as_north_african_protests_the.html
Interesting points made in that article, comparing the situation in North Africa to the one in Central Europe circa 1989. :hmmm:
Skybird
01-25-11, 08:17 PM
I do not know mujch about Tunisia, I only transitted thorugh it, and very fast, so I do not comment. However, Egypt I repeatedly stayed in, though not as long as in Turkey and Iran. Last time was 2004, before in the mid- and late 90s. I think it is a mistake in case of Egypt to assume that more democrtacy and frfeedom there would lead to more demcoracy anmd freedom, I fear a religious radicalisation in the politcal landscape there. That the Muslim Brotherhood there immediately doubled their share in seats when Mubarak allowed slightly more freedom for opposition factions to candidate, should serve as a warning that should not be overheared. A more liberal political regime in Egypt I would only support if the weakenbing of the current regime is accompanied by sending the fundamentalists back under thewir stones, too. And I think these fundamentalists are too popular with huge parts of the population as if this would happen. A less Mubarakian, more religiously fundamentalistic Egypt would be a great concern for Israel and Saudi Arabia, for Israel: due to the huge influence the Brotherhood has in Egypt, for the Saudis: the brotherhood could turn into an even more powerful rival in the Saudi claim of being the keeper and representative of real Islam. Tensions are almost guaranteed between Saudi Wahabatism, and the MB. So far the brotherhood is tolerated in Saudi Arabaia, but the saudis keep a very sharp eye on it, and challenge them quite frequently.
Tunisia is a country with many sides, not only that there is a previous Colonialism power that has made its mark, it might be worth a visit for study purposes .. sounds like I work at a travel agency, :o
papa_smurf
01-27-11, 06:08 AM
Similar protests have now spread to the Yemen, with thousands of protesters calling for Ali Abdullah Saleh, president for more than 30 years, to step down.
Where will these protests spread next:hmmm:
Source:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12295864
Castout
01-27-11, 06:39 AM
I hope Singapore but Singaporeans don't have pride nor courage needed. They would just bend their backs and cower. And it's much easier to control a small population in the size of a city. :DL
Climate change is good for political change.
Israel won't be happy with Egypt situation since they would lose all their developed contacts within Hosni Mubarak government. But Egyptians will decide for Egypt. I hope whether the regime falls or not reform would be carried out nonetheless and the regime could hand its rod of power to another worthy successor and not to Mr Hosni son.
Israel won't be happy with Egypt situation since they would lose all their developed contacts within Hosni Mubarak government. But Egyptians will decide for Egypt. I hope whether the regime falls or not reform would be carried out nonetheless and the regime could hand its rod of power to another worthy successor and not to Mr Hosni son.
I really hope not.
There is no such thing as democracy in Arab coutures anyway.
The first that grabs the power just holds it or worse it will destabilize the country into civil war.
Making it good platform for terror organizations.
I just hope Egypt will not fall for islamic extremist because it will be sign to flash Israel Egyptian peace treaty down the toilet.
Betonov
01-27-11, 07:23 AM
I hope Singapore but Singaporeans don't have pride nor courage needed. They would just bend their backs and cower.
It seems that our two nations are related
Egypt will be reformed in the long term with or without support from the West, or they allied Arabs, which I believe
commandosolo2009
01-27-11, 03:10 PM
in Egypt, the government screws you, the regime blocks your fb, twitter, and myspace, and the police hurl rocks back atcha....
We've kissed reform a long time ago.... The only day maybe like Faruks stepping down the throne and ruling day.
Source: on the scene :D
CAIRO -- Nobel Peace laureate Mohamed ElBaradei, Egypt's top democracy advocate and a key challenger to President Hosni Mubarak, returned to the country Thursday night after declaring he was ready to lead the grass-roots protest movement to a regime change.
Violence escalated outside the capital Cairo. In the flashpoint city of Suez, east of Cairo, rioters -- some wearing surgical masks or scarves over their faces to ward off tear gas -- attacked the main fire station in downtown and looted it before torching it with firebombs.
Firefighters jumped out windows to escape the flames, as heavy black smoke billowed from the burning building. In the northern Sinai area of Sheik Zuweid, several hundred bedouins and police exchanged live gunfire, killing a 17-year-old man.
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2011/01/27/egypts-protests-pose-threat-regime/?test=latestnews
Note: Update record, Published January 27, 201
CAIRO -- Nobel Peace laureate Mohamed ElBaradei, Egypt's top democracy advocate and a key challenger to President Hosni Mubarak, returned to the country Thursday night after declaring he was ready to lead the grass-roots protest movement to a regime change.
Acording to polls if Egypt was to hold free election Muslim Brothers would win.
That probably would make the election first and last one for a long time.
I really would like to see Egypt as democratic country but Arabs haven't learned the game yet.
Skybird
01-27-11, 07:18 PM
ElBaradei. Fan-tas-tic. :dead:
Skybird
01-27-11, 07:25 PM
Acording to polls if Egypt was to hold free election Muslim Brothers would win.
That probably would make the election first and last one for a long time.
I really would like to see Egypt as democratic country but Arabs haven't learned the game yet.
Maybe they would even held elections again - if they do not need to fear the outcome.
Egypt is not Tunisia. Egypt has a strong fundamentalist movement, much stronger than there was/is any in Tunisia. The MB is deeply rooted in the structures of civilian society by maintaing a dense network of social wellfare, education and health caring. That'S why the regime always had a sharp eye and a ready fist on them.
But let'S not poaint the devil on the wall. The regime in Egypt is much stronger than that in Tunisia has ever been. Military and security are strong in numbers, too, and so far do not show any sign they would become disloyal to Mubarak. The real test will come in fall, at the elections. Mubarak shoulkd not push it to the limits by candidating again, but should install a loyal follower who would keep up the pressure on the Brotherhood. Even trying to install his son maybe would light a fire, so maybe he better gives up that idea as well.
Preventing the fundamentalism in Egypt breaking out all open must be seen as the Wests and Israel'S top interest.
I certainly do not expect EU politicians to understand this. And by what I heared from them said so far, especially from Germany dominus narcissimus of foreign policy, Guido Westerwelle, indeed they don't understand it at all.
I don't doubt that Mubarak will stop those demonstrations from escalating.
He probably will make some changes and reforms but future of Egypt doesn't look promising anyways.
With Lebanon and Syria becoming proxy of Iran and Egypt possibly becoming hostile its looks like 70s again.
Damn Shi'its on the north and Sunni from the south and Israel in between lol:arrgh!:
Castout
01-27-11, 08:31 PM
I really hope not.
There is no such thing as democracy in Arab coutures anyway.
The first that grabs the power just holds it or worse it will destabilize the country into civil war.
Making it good platform for terror organizations.
I just hope Egypt will not fall for islamic extremist because it will be sign to flash Israel Egyptian peace treaty down the toilet.
I don't believe that while I can perfectly understand your reasoning just that I refuse to believe that Arabs could only choose between authoritarian fascist or religious fundamentalist.
The one thing that gives your reasoning a well grounding is that the people who made the revolution are USUALLY completely different from the people who are going to enjoy or benefit from them.
Young Arabs today are idealist, smart and sophisticated people(Take a look at young Iranians). Just that their government the one which is being an impediment to social and political progress since it's riddled with corruption and cronyism and nepotism.
Young people in every nation are really the hope of that nation, the bringer of light and hope. If you break the backs of the young people that country's fate is sealed for another generation but as long as the young people are free they will become the engine or driver of change through political, and social activism and movement. I have my utmost respect to the Arab youth especially the Iranian, Tunisian, and Egyptian young people ! They deserve better! :salute: I only hope their leaders could appreciate and understand their youth aspirations better instead holding onto petty selfishness
Young Arabs today are idealist, smart and sophisticated people(Take a look at young Iranians). Just that their government being an impediment to social progress since it's riddled with corruption and cronyism and nepotism.
Young people in every nation are really the hope of that nation, the bringer of light and hope. If you break the backs of the young people that country's fate is sealed for another generation but as long as the young people are free they will become the engine of change through political, and social activism and movement. I have my utmost respect to the Arab youth! :salute:
Iranians are not Arabs and have different cultural background.
While Arabs are making slow progress so the resistance from radical islam grows.
While in general Arabs are much more educated and progressive compared to 50 years ago the strength of radicals is much stronger and influential than before in majority groups that stayed behind.
Your assumption is a very naive one.
Please remember that radicals will use any means necessary to achieve their goals.
Look what happen in Iraq and the democracy experiment.
It made Iraqis miss Sadam Husein at least there was an order in the country.
Iran even with the residence inside still IS islamic regime.
Castout
01-27-11, 08:58 PM
Iranians are not Arabs and have different cultural background.
While Arabs are making slow progress so the resistance from radical islam grows.
While in general Arabs are much more educated and progressive compared to 50 years ago the strength of radicals is much stronger and influential than before in groups that stayed behind.
Your assumption is a very naive one.
Please remember that radicals will use any means necessary to achieve their goals.
Look what happen in Iraq and the democracy experiment.
It made Iraqis miss Sadam Husein at least there was an order in the country.
Iran even with the residence inside still IS islamic regime.
Yeah Iranians are Persians. What is happening in Iraq is of no barometer to other Arab states. Saddam was toppled not by the Iraqis but by US and her allies. The was no movement to topple Saddam in the first place so there was no ground on the people roots to support the new government. It will take one or two generations before Iraqis could be free of their oppressed mentality provided they are given suitable environment to grow and develop. As of now majority of Iraqis have no interest in the political turmoil that's been plaguing their country. But if situation decays for extended period many will be drawn to the fundamentalist way of interpretation.
Yeah Iranians are Persians. What is happening in Iraq is of no barometer to other Arab states. Saddam was toppled not by the Iraqis but by US and her allies. The was no movement to topple Saddam in the first place so there was no ground on the people roots to support the new government. It will take one or two generations before Iraqis could be free of their oppressed mentality provided they are given suitable environment to grow and develop. As of now majority of Iraqis have no interest in the political turmoil that's been plaguing their country. But if situation decays for extended period many will be drawn to the fundamentalist way of interpretation.
There was no movment in Iraq because the coutry was under iron hand.
Paranoid Saddam Husain was very similar to Stalin so very difrent from Mubarak who allows some political autonomy/opposition as long as its not Islamic one .
He as an relatively progressive Arab seems to understand the problem and danger of radical islam.
The problem in Iraq is not that US tried to force democracy on it as a foreign power.
It is more because radical fractions sponsored by foreign terror organization/goverments did every thing they could for US to not to succeed.
They fought US while fighting each other as well trying to kill as many Iraqis as they could.
Castout
01-27-11, 09:23 PM
Time for video
Playlist on Egypt movement.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kWr6MypZ-JU&feature=&p=7372E865986E4330&index=0&playnext=1
Castout
01-27-11, 09:25 PM
Mubarak who allows some political autonomy/opposition as long as its not Islamic one .
He as an relatively progressive Arab seems to understand the problem and danger of radical islam.
But 30 years under the same man would probably change the man so much.
The protests could widen after Friday prayers!
Egyptian security forces are on high alert, with thousands of people expected to join anti-government rallies after Friday prayers.
The government says it is open to dialogue but also warned of "decisive measures" as the fourth day of violent protests loomed.
There has been widespread disruption to internet and mobile phone services.There were reports of fresh clashes overnight, as well as opposition figures being arrested.
The apparent crackdown on the largest opposition movement, the Muslim Brotherhood, came after it said it would back the Friday protests.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12303564
Note: Update record, 28 January 2011 Last updated at 10:15 GMT
Castout
01-28-11, 07:03 AM
I can imagine US diplomats losing their sleep over Egypt nowadays mumbling what they think soon to be lost billions of dollars of military aid. Gosh damn it we helped Hosni but we forgot the Egyptians still exist.
Could Egypt become another Iran :DL.
Jordanian king has felt some pressure too.
Armistead
01-28-11, 12:17 PM
Another US puppet dictator in trouble due to corruption. Almost the same story line that led to nam, support a puppet dictator, give lot's of aid to help, but corruption steals it and the people uprise.
The people are burning the government down right now..gonna get ugly.
Skybird
01-28-11, 01:51 PM
German correspondents independently from each other reported from Kairo that they witnessed incoming military columns being greeted by protesters with flowers and the soldiers partialy having fraternised with them. The police, siad both correspodnets, has been chased through the streets by protesters - with military crews and their armnoured vehicles just standing by, watching, talking - not intervening.
When Egypt falls, that will cause more shockwaves than just Tunisia.
For the West it means
- that in Egypt the fundamentalists have card blanche to ride the train of democracy as long as needed to secure their power and influence, being applauded by the EU for that, and then jump off the train when they have reached their goals,
- the status quo of peaceful neighbourly coexistenc between egypt and Israel is in danger and Gaza gets an open southern border for Hamas to be supplied more openly,
- the US, investing 1-1.5 billion in military aid per year into Egypt, having sunk an awful lot of money into it and having given Muslim fundamentalists access to some of the most modern Western military equipment, in very significant numbers,
- the Suez channel becoming a new focus of concern,
- and due to the fall of Egypt inevitably being followed by even more autocratic regimes being challenged and toppled, the issue of secured oil supply is becoming a critical and threatened one.
We either act morally against claimed Western convictions for more time to come, but benefit practically if the regime survives, or we act morally, but by that boosting fundamentalism in all Islamic world, damaging our own critical, most vital interests that way. For the West, it is a no win-no win situation.
And for Israel it is even more, and directly, dangerous, at worst marking the beginning of the end in the assessments of future historians looking back at the current events from a later century.
It's certainly moving fast over there, if the army is going to flip, and I hear that the Army chief has cut short a visit to Washington and headed back to Cairo, so this coupled with the delay in Mubaraks speech could mean that the military are taking control, they are certainly beginning to appear in the cities.
I'm not so sure about fundamentalism, there is perhaps an increased risk of extremism in this time, and the possibility of extremists riding the democracy train, but you get the risk of that in any major power struggle and fall of government, however I would definitely agree that if the Egyptian government does collapse then it will send out shockwaves amongst North-Africa and Israels neighbours, possibly leading to uprisings there, there have already been some in Jordan so I hear. I wouldn't blame the Israeli government for being a bit nervy at the moment.
This could go one of two ways at the moment, either Mubarak will give greater control to the military in return for their assistance in breaking up the riots, or the military will oust Mubarak and put in an interim government. Either which way, the military are going to decide, not the people.
Skybird
01-28-11, 03:42 PM
It's certainly moving fast over there, if the army is going to flip, and I hear that the Army chief has cut short a visit to Washington and headed back to Cairo, so this coupled with the delay in Mubaraks speech could mean that the military are taking control, they are certainly beginning to appear in the cities.
I'm not so sure about fundamentalism, there is perhaps an increased risk of extremism in this time, and the possibility of extremists riding the democracy train, but you get the risk of that in any major power struggle and fall of government, however I would definitely agree that if the Egyptian government does collapse then it will send out shockwaves amongst North-Africa and Israels neighbours, possibly leading to uprisings there, there have already been some in Jordan so I hear.
The Egyptian oppositioin is not uniform but quite diverse, but the biggest faction is the Muslim Brotherhood, and by a far lead. They dominate already the oublic social service factor, wellfare, and run far-leading underground education structures (or should one say indoctrination structures). A latest poll from just short time agi said that if there were free elections in Egypt, the brotherhood would win with a total majority.
The brotherhood maintains sister organisations throughout the Islamic and Western world. Their financing therefore is secured. It tells me something that they jumped a bit delayed onto the democratic demonstration train. A free, democratric soceity is what some of the students want, but back in the mid-90s and still today that they are a minoprity faction only, most, like some of the youinger ones in Iran in the 90s unrests, want just some more clearly defined freedoms, like poress and itnernet aceess, but the majority does not wish Western-style democracies. And that also is certainly the last thing that the Muslimbrothers want. They will act like Erdoghan said: "Democracy is like a train. We shall get out when we arrive at the station we want." That's what has happened in Turkey since the aKP rose. That is what is happeniong in Iraq and Al Sadr'S movement. And it is what will happen in Egypt. They have learned that they can bypass Western resistance to their radical goals and evenm can sack in a whole lot of money from the West if they acchieve their radical antidemocratic goals by democratic means. Islam - is anything but democratic or tolerant or multicultural. And Egyptians after all still see themselves as Muslims.
What you say would not surprise me Sky, it would be an extremely stupid person not to see the opportunities present in a change in government, and say what you like about them, but the leaders of the jihadist movement are not stupid, they are smart, shrewd and very cunning and they have a vast pool of resources to call on to achieve their objectives. :yep:
Question is, how big are the inroads into the Egyptian military that the Muslim Brotherhood has? Because, popular uprising or not, the military will decide the future of this intifada.
Watching live pictures, it is indeed looking huge right now, although it seems to me like the key to how this is going to resolve is currently with the army. What I'm seeing is that they're now taking a very ambiguous position. At the end of the day, I think they will have to take a position. Once they do - whichever way - I think there will be quite a crackdown. Either they will shut this down, or there will be a coup d'etat. Either way, I think the army leadership will be the real winners of this...
Anyone else watching this?
http://english.aljazeera.net/watch_now/
looks like its going all to hell over there:down:
Pres. Mubarak just asked the government to resign dam...
wonder whats gonna happen
Armistead
01-28-11, 05:41 PM
I just watch Mubarak speak, only people he wants to resign is members of his government. He'll have to go though.
Oil up $4 a barrel, go up more tomorrow and if the area stayed in unrest for any period of time, many say over $200 a barrel....wonder what that would be at the pump..$10-12 per gal.
At least four people have been killed in protests after thousands of people joined in a "day of revolt" against the Egyptian president.
http://www.foxnews.com/slideshow/world/2011/01/26/deadly-egyptian-protests/#slide=1
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2011/01/28/violent-clashes-police-break-cairo/
Note:Published January 28
Skybird
01-28-11, 06:43 PM
I feel there is currently a rift in the military. The higher ranks forming a minority faction, interested in supporting the regime because that would promise US military aid keeping to flow, and a majority faction of most troops and lower ranks, not caring much about that, and feeling more soldaric with the people on the street. I would not be surprised to learn that the military hierarchy currently is fighting a battle within it's own ranks.
The outcome is open. In Iran the world also hoped for a toppling of the regime, and then it was exactly the opposite. I saw that coming. But in Egypt's case I don't dare any predictions anymore.
Mubarak's statement to release the government and form a new one, looks like a concession not born from a position of strength to offer a deal, but uncertainty or weakness.
If only there would not be this damn Islam in Egypt, and no Muslim Brotherhood. If these two would not be there, it would be easy to chose a side.
MB, is waiting for the chance to make a breakthrough in some way
I can't see Mubaraks speech doing anything other than rile the people up against him even more, it's almost sad watching him cling to power with his fingernails when his people want him out. But, alas, it is between the devil and the deep blue sea. Tomorrow will tell which way this is going to go, but I'd wager that the streets will not be empty, that's for certain.
Rockstar
01-28-11, 07:44 PM
No good thing is going to come of this if the MB gets both feet in the door. Which is whats going to happen if Mubarak loses control of Egypt. If Egypt follows Iran or Tunisia will depend on wether protesters can get together with common goals, not likely. But much depends too if the MB will step up their involement.
Also heard many in Israel seem to think much of what they see on the news is overblown.
Skybird
01-28-11, 08:27 PM
Also heard many in Israel seem to think much of what they see on the news is overblown.
So say returning tourists who did not report any witnessing of unrest, just that tours to Kairo have been cancelled. However, most tourists, over 90%, have theiur hotel outside Kairo and Alexandria, especially at the tourist ressorts in Sharm-Al-Sheich and the red sea area. The Israelis, on the other hand, have gagged all officals and cabinet members to not lose a single word of comment on Egypt. For them, a regime change in Egypt would be a major catastrophe: Hezbollah having taken over Lebanon in the North, unrest in Jordan in the East, Hamas' thorn named Gaza in their side, the Palestinians in their middle, and a to-become-hostile Egypt now in their South. So if the citizens indeed say they do not believe what they see to be representative for the truth, then this maybe illustrates a head-in-the-sand mentality in the face of being confronted with major disaster, because 1.) they are helpless to influence events rolling, a state which they necessarily must hate, and 2.) many people tend to think that it cannot be what should not be.
I wonder if Iran has its hand in these unrests, like the StaSi was orchestrating the political left and the peace movement in Westgermany to raise troubles for the Western government and NATO, to agitate and to stage street protests and unrest. Revolutionary Guards in Iran in recent months have strengthened their position in Iran and gained additional powers and influence on civil and industrial structures, probably a reaction to the unrests after the elections.
When Egypt falls, I think it is only a question of time until unrest also breaks out in Saudi Arabia, even if Jordan and Jemen go first - and then it would all be Iranian and Turkish hey-day.
Armistead
01-28-11, 08:49 PM
I feel there is currently a rift in the military. The higher ranks forming a minority faction, interested in supporting the regime because that would promise US military aid keeping to flow, and a majority faction of most troops and lower ranks, not caring much about that, and feeling more soldaric with the people on the street. I would not be surprised to learn that the military hierarchy currently is fighting a battle within it's own ranks.
The outcome is open. In Iran the world also hoped for a toppling of the regime, and then it was exactly the opposite. I saw that coming. But in Egypt's case I don't dare any predictions anymore.
Mubarak's statement to release the government and form a new one, looks like a concession not born from a position of strength to offer a deal, but uncertainty or weakness.
If only there would not be this damn Islam in Egypt, and no Muslim Brotherhood. If these two would not be there, it would be easy to chose a side.
It's a muslim nation, that's why we support a puppet dictator. We would never want freedom of the vote, they would vote in a theocracy, we don't want what the people want, so we give them billions every year, but what doe's it go to..the military.
One day we will learn as a nation you can't overthrow the will of millions of people for long, you can go broke trying, but you'll fail in the end. The people want Mubarak out and the US out. Again, our policy will turn a moderate muslim nation into a radical one.
Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak is due to appoint a new government after firing his previous administration amid a wave of protests against his rule.
Friday saw tens of thousands on the streets of Cairo, Suez, Alexandria and other cities in protests that continued into the night, defying a curfew At least 18 people are reported to have been killed during the day in clashes with security forces.
Protests are continuing in central Cairo, and shots have been heard.
Mobile phone services have been restored in the capital, but the internet remains down.
The BBC's Rupert Wingfield-Hayes, in Suez, says the streets of the eastern port city were left to the protesters overnight but the army has now arrived there.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12314799
Note: Update record, 29 January 2011 Last updated at 09:10 GMT
Castout
01-29-11, 06:17 AM
it's too late for Mubarak to offer any concession. He had had that opportunity for the past 30 years. The people have moved they won't be lied again I guess.
It's better for him to resign willingly and to appoint temporary successor and to promise a democratic AND fair election within 1-2 years at the latest so the chance of the country falling to religious fundamentalist could be minimized.
For Egypt sake and for your own Mr Mubarak resign. It's still honorable to do that even now. That way he gets to keep most of his dimes and jewels too
Everything is not just about money or Uncle Scrooge...
Skybird
01-29-11, 06:25 AM
It's a muslim nation, that's why we support a puppet dictator. We would never want freedom of the vote, they would vote in a theocracy, we don't want what the people want, so we give them billions every year, but what doe's it go to..the military.
One day we will learn as a nation you can't overthrow the will of millions of people for long, you can go broke trying, but you'll fail in the end. The people want Mubarak out and the US out. Again, our policy will turn a moderate muslim nation into a radical one.
You imply that "radicals" are there because the West supports those iron fists cracking down on the radicals. You do not see that the radicals would be there anyway, no matter what we do. And that we thus support iron-handed dictators in order to keep the radicals in check and prevent them to gain power. Radical theocrats in power are a major problem for us, it touches upon our most vital interests, not even mentioning the inherent aggressive and expansionstic drive of Islam .
If you think that democracies in these countries would keep the radicals in check, you should learn it better. Demcioarcy is what broiught Hamas to power. Demcoarcy was what has enabled Hezbollah to take over Lebanon. Democracy was what helped the Muslimbrothers in egypt to win their seats in parliament and double it when Muabark agree to slightly more freedoms becasue the naive Europeans pressed him for that. Democracy what is destroying the Kemalistic-secular state structure of Turkey, and has given birth to a fundamentalistic process in Turkey, moving it far, far into orthodox Islam again.
Democracy and goot intentions are no fast-selling items. It depends on the cultural circumstances where they are tried. You cannot compare the German revolution of 1989 with Egypt, and you cannot compare post-war developements in Germany after 1945 with Iraq 2003/2011. The starfting conditions always were totally different. And where freedom leads people to bring radicals and fanatics into power, we should be careful to be to eager to support freedom for this purpose - it may backfire against ourselves.
Tribesman
01-29-11, 06:48 AM
You do not see that the radicals would be there anyway, no matter what we do.
The "radicals" influance and growth is directly proportional to both the problems with current governments/dictatorships and the various foriegn groups/governments supporting those people.
Radiation is always there no matter what you do, but if you dump lots more radiation strtaight into the water source there is going to be more radiation spreading round there.
Demcioarcy is what broiught Hamas to power
And there was me thinking it was the long record corruption that lost the PLO grouping the election.
. Demcoarcy was what has enabled Hezbollah to take over Lebanon.
Democracy???????
Its the ever shifting alliances between the parties and their militais coupled with numerous various foriegn interferences that enabled Hez to form a coilition under the confessional electoral process the Leb has.
But I don't expect Sky to be able to understand any of that even if it was written in neon letters across his bedroom ceiling and drilled into his skull repetedly as he just goes blind when the word "muslim" is mentioned
Castout
01-29-11, 08:07 AM
Umm read that some of the deployed military take side with the protesters.
Tanks becoming resting point and anti Mubarak banner waver.
Skybird
01-29-11, 08:16 AM
Umm read that some of the deployed military take side with the protesters.
Tanks becoming resting point and anti Mubarak banner waver.
Yes, German correspondents saw such scenes and reported them on TV already last evening.
I slowly get a feeling that it'S going down the drain down there. A united military - looks different. Some units just abandon their M60s and leave them behind, others were reported to have burnt their M113s voluntarily. Yesterday I did not know how to rate the events, today I say it is 40:60 against Mubarak, balance shifting further. He either changes the trend quickly within the next 24-36 hours, or he does not and becomes toast sooner or later, I currently think.
While I wish the Egyptians well and freedom, I fear that fundamentalism that is already sunken in deeply into the civil society and the social sector, the latter making them very popular and influential, I already saw that and felt that in the mid-90s, and again 2004, which was the last time I was there.
In most cases this is old news when it should be the one published by a news agency, nothing strange about that ..
1738 Witnesses say there are snipers on the roof of Egypt's interior ministry building, and they have been firing live rounds at anybody who tries to approach the building, the BBC Arabic's Ranya Sabri reports from Cairo.
1742 Jon Jensen tweets: "Army no longer guarding streets near Egypt Ministry of Interior - there is a gunfight going on there now. For past 3 hours."
1742 CNN's Ben Wederman tweets: "Almost all police stations ransacked, arsenals looted. Suddenly weapons in the streets wielded by thugs. Where is the army?"
Hello anarchy.
Armistead
01-29-11, 01:27 PM
You imply that "radicals" are there because the West supports those iron fists cracking down on the radicals. You do not see that the radicals would be there anyway, no matter what we do. And that we thus support iron-handed dictators in order to keep the radicals in check and prevent them to gain power. Radical theocrats in power are a major problem for us, it touches upon our most vital interests, not even mentioning the inherent aggressive and expansionstic drive of Islam .
If you think that democracies in these countries would keep the radicals in check, you should learn it better. Demcioarcy is what broiught Hamas to power. Demcoarcy was what has enabled Hezbollah to take over Lebanon. Democracy was what helped the Muslimbrothers in egypt to win their seats in parliament and double it when Muabark agree to slightly more freedoms becasue the naive Europeans pressed him for that. Democracy what is destroying the Kemalistic-secular state structure of Turkey, and has given birth to a fundamentalistic process in Turkey, moving it far, far into orthodox Islam again.
Democracy and goot intentions are no fast-selling items. It depends on the cultural circumstances where they are tried. You cannot compare the German revolution of 1989 with Egypt, and you cannot compare post-war developements in Germany after 1945 with Iraq 2003/2011. The starfting conditions always were totally different. And where freedom leads people to bring radicals and fanatics into power, we should be careful to be to eager to support freedom for this purpose - it may backfire against ourselves.
Show me one nation where we supported a dictator over democracy that it worked. We provide billions to the dictators and they abuse the money, not using it to help the people. When we deny religious freedom and the right for others to chose through a free vote and press, we only create a more radical class.
As in Egypt and more nations to follow the dictators policies result in mass poverty. This goe's on maybe for years in which the population turns to more radical groups. As in this case, eventually poverty forces the hand of the masses and radical groups take the lead. If we allowed freedom of the vote today the Muslim Brotherhood would take control in parliament. So the US would still deny democracy, resulting in a more radical mindset to deal with later. We should help force out Mubarak, let them vote and get our nose out of their business, along with withdrawing funding. The world would invade should they try to close the canal.
In every nation we've done this it's resulted in a more radical muslim movement. Yes, radical Islam will always have elements in every muslim nations, but when we support dictators, the masses turn to these groups.
We keep reliving wars, spending 100's of billion doing this circle screw...Support dictators, go to war, spend billions, leave and repeat every 10 years or so...and the masses are more radical each time.
Skybird
01-29-11, 01:39 PM
For some time, the Shah kept Islamic radicals in check - with brute force.
For some time, Attaturk kept Islamic radicals in check - with brutally enforces secularism.
For some time, Saddam Hussein kept Islamci radicals in check - with brute force.
For 30 years, Mubarak kept Islamci radicals in check - with brute force.
Islam is a radical, totalitarian ideology in itself. It is fundamentalistic by nature and self-definition. And thourhgout history, it was only suvccessfully contaioned or poushed back or brought to a hold, where it was confronted with brute force that was stronger in violent power than itself was.
Compromises with Islam, and appeasement, in the long perspective do not work. Freedom givien to Islam, is used to increasde Islam, and reduce freedom. So keep in check Islam - in order to increase freedom.
:yep:
Analysts warned Obama: Don't end up on the wrong side of Egypt's revolution
American administration tried to avoid taking a side when the unrest began last week; Obama eventually urged his counterpart to embark on reforms.
By Natasha Mozgovaya (http://www.haaretz.com/misc/writers/natasha-mozgovaya-1.493) Tags: Israel news Egypt
As the demonstrations and clashes unfolded in Egypt over the last week, senior officials in the American administration tried – maniacally – to avoid taking a side in the conflict.
Essentially, the American pendulum swung between cautionary estimation that President Hosni Mubarak's regime was "stable" and U.S. Vice President Joe Biden's denial that he had referred to the Egyptian leader as a "dictator".
http://www.haaretz.com/polopoly_fs/1.340011.1296327973!/image/250853999.jpg_gen/derivatives/landscape_295/250853999.jpg Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and U.S. President Barack Obama
Photo by: AP
Simultaneously, the White House lapped criticism on the Egyptian regime in general and on the way Mubarak was handling the demonstrations in particular.
Washington's initial careful responses caused American analysts to take Barack Obama to task and warn him that by supporting the Egyptian president, he was likely to find himself on the wrong side of the revolution.
Following that, the U.S. president urged his Egyptian counterpart to embark on "political, social and economic reforms that meet the aspirations of the Egyptian people."
Despite Obama's cautionary approach, the British Daily Telegraph revealed that the pragmatic Americans had played a double game with Mubarak by secretly backing those responsible for the current uprising that spent three years planning a coup in Egypt.
A December 2008 cable dispatched to Washington by the U.S. ambassador in Cairo indicates that the Americans were well acquainted with the Egyptian opposition's plan to change the regime.
Reporting in a secret cable about her meeting with a member from Egypt's opposition, Ambassador Margaret Scobey wrote that a number of activists were prepared to support a program that would see the shift to a parliamentary democracy, prior to the September 2011 elections.
Such a program was so sensitive, Scobey noted in her cable, that it could not be put in writing. The ambassador seemed to doubt the feasibility of the program, but the opposition member with whom she met won the support of American diplomats.
The opposition member met regularly with diplomats over the last few years, served as a source regarding the Egyptian regime's violation of human rights, and was even invited to a meeting of young activists in New York organized by the State Department.
:o
Armistead
01-29-11, 04:45 PM
Thanks for proving my point with the list.
The Shah for instance. His father refused to deal with the allies during WW2 and after. The Shahs father was a nationalist, not a muslim radical. After the war the allies wanted to control the oil there, he fought against it, so short story the allies forced him off the throne and bribed his son and we basically decided the use of oil...
Overall, a peaceful people before. We basically set up the Shah, one of the most brutal and corrupt dictators in history to his people. Due to his corruption, the people were forced into poverty. It got so bad he was forced to leave the country, but the US and British financed a coup and reinstalled the Shah. He became more brutal with his own secret police fully backed by the US and British. The masses turned towards religious leaders. When he was forced out again, it was over..out with the Shah and in with radical clerics, ala Khomeini. Iran was not a threat or radical muslim state, but our policies over 30 years set it up.
We've done this throughout the region. It's really all about oil. We support dictators who do what we want with oil, but they deny any economic wealth to the people from oil, why they themselves live in billion dollar castles. Who wouldn't hate us.
Islam is the largest and fastest growing religion in the world including the US...why christianity dies. Think we had anything to do with that?
As stated, this cycle we create to protect our self interest..oil, we do at the expense of the arab people. It would be easy for all these nations to go the way of Egypt....
Why Dictators give us brief moments to do as we please, the cycle has now reached the critical point...and we don't have the troops or funds to repeat the cycles of the past to our liking. It's reached a level of being out of control, terrorism, hate for the west...and not much we can do about it.
Skybird
01-29-11, 06:45 PM
While oil is one motive for Wetsern policy, it is not the driivng policy of Islam. For Islam it is about spremacy and dominance. It is antisemtic by nature, not becasue of what Israel has achieved in making a green oasis of where before generations of Palestinians just had empty sand, although being demonstrated other culture'S superior acting for Islam is a narcissistic offense, and a disgrace to its claims to be the best there is.
In the end, islam hates the West no matter whether we are after oil or not. It does so because - we are not Islamic. That we have become a more advanced, more humane, more just, better, more sophisticated and more potent culture than Islamic societies, makes our sins even worse, from Islam's perspective, and that the French under Napoleon landed in Egypt and showed the Islamic world its own backwardedness stunned it until recently, hadn'T the Islamci world spend the long time before in a self-focusased dream of being the best there is in all the world. And then came this impertinent French people into their country and showed that they were wrong, and that the Islamci world could not even do anything about the French doing like they wanted! Unforgivable offence to Islam!
You see, this is what drives Islam. Our policies regarding oil, are not more than just the cherry on top of the cream on top of the cake.
When you think that we provoke Islam to be aggressive, you could as well think that the Third Reich's aggressiveness was provoked by the behaviour of other nations. That way you can easily label the attacker the victim which acted in self defence.
Islam is not the victim. It is the agressor. It is because of it's ideologic content and self-understanding. Scorpions sting, frogs squawk, birds fly, fioshes swim, and Islam wants to be the only one there is. - Essentially, that is what it comes down to.
Castout
01-29-11, 07:01 PM
While I wish the Egyptians well and freedom, I fear that fundamentalism that is already sunken in deeply into the civil society and the social sector, the latter making them very popular and influential, I already saw that and felt that in the mid-90s, and again 2004, which was the last time I was there.
That's why Mobarak needs to resign so he could get the chance to steer Egypt for the last time by appointing a temporary successor until general election could elect a new president. If I were him I'd give that rod to the man most worthy and credible rather than his crony even if it means his own opposition. It goes without saying not to hand over the rod to religious fundamentalist.
Eqyptians are fed up with him. The man is a dictator who fails to deliver prosperity to his people.
From wiki:
Thirty-four constitutional changes voted on by parliament on March 19, 2007 prohibit parties from using religion as a basis for political activity
Tribesman
01-29-11, 07:24 PM
Thanks for proving my point with the list.
I don't think he understands that, he thinks it grows because it grows and because it grew it will grow.
AngusJS
01-29-11, 10:51 PM
The Egyptian Museum has suffered in the uprising. :cry:
Initial reports said the Tutenkhamen exhibit was not harmed, but now there is some doubt:
http://cosmiclog.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2011/01/28/5943271-were-tuts-treasures-damaged
:wah:
CHICAGO – Thousands of people in Egypt who flooded streets in riots calling for President Hosni Mubarak to step down were joined Saturday by relatives and supporters at protests in major American cities.
"Mubarak will go. If not today, then tomorrow," Magdy Al-Abady, 39, of Chicago, said during a demonstration downtown in front of the Egyptian consulate's office. The genomics researcher, with an Egyptian flag draped over his shoulders, said his brother and parents were protesting in Egypt and he was speaking often with his brother.
http://www.foxnews.com/us/2011/01/29/protesters-offer-support-egyptians/
Note: Update record, Published January 29, 2011
Skybird
01-30-11, 07:34 AM
That's why Mobarak needs to resign so he could get the chance to steer Egypt for the last time by appointing a temporary successor until general election could elect a new president. If I were him I'd give that rod to the man most worthy and credible rather than his crony even if it means his own opposition. It goes without saying not to hand over the rod to religious fundamentalist.
"That'S why"...? Because the fundamental threat is there, this is the reason why they must be opened the gate? Mind you, the MB immediately doubled it seats with just the small additional freedom Mubarak granted them during the second last election, and a recent poll from short before the unrest broke out showed they would win a majority if free elections would be held today.
Anyway, I think Munarak plans to step down, and not to make his son his follower. That he made the chief of the secret service - whom is mentioned as being highly respected by the military as well as the Israelis - his vice, and making another high ranking officer the top number in the new givernment shows that they try to not gove the Bortherhood that opportunity and that they lay things more into the ehand of the military to govern the country, at least with more influence - to guard against fundamentalists.
With a vreasonably run military goivenrment like there was in Turkey before the AKP, I can live perfectly well. Better than the alternative which would inevitably emerge over the next forseeable future: see Turkey. See Lebanon. See Gaza.
Giving extremists freedom and democracy, does not lead to freedcom and democracy, Castout. But to extremism and fanatics taking over command. If Egypt would not be of any important interest to us, we would not need to care, but it is of interest to us, and the whole region. It is about shifting power balances towards Iran and fundamentalism in general, it is about regional stability, and for the forseeable future it will remain to be about oil, too.
Tribesman
01-30-11, 08:14 AM
Mind you, the MB immediately doubled it seats with just the small additional freedom Mubarak granted them during the second last election
Theres the proof, freedom builds fundamentalism:doh:
Its so hard to understand how someone can consistantly get their "logic" so backwards.
and a recent poll from short before the unrest broke out showed they would win a majority if free elections would be held today
I wonder what a poll would show if a free election was held in a free country that had already had some free elections?
see Turkey. See Lebanon. See Gaza
Thats wierd, none of them fit the bill which makes them irrelevant doesn't it.
Armistead
01-30-11, 09:42 AM
"That'S why"...? Because the fundamental threat is there, this is the reason why they must be opened the gate? Mind you, the MB immediately doubled it seats with just the small additional freedom Mubarak granted them during the second last election, and a recent poll from short before the unrest broke out showed they would win a majority if free elections would be held today.
Anyway, I think Munarak plans to step down, and not to make his son his follower. That he made the chief of the secret service - whom is mentioned as being highly respected by the military as well as the Israelis - his vice, and making another high ranking officer the top number in the new givernment shows that they try to not gove the Bortherhood that opportunity and that they lay things more into the ehand of the military to govern the country, at least with more influence - to guard against fundamentalists.
With a vreasonably run military goivenrment like there was in Turkey before the AKP, I can live perfectly well. Better than the alternative which would inevitably emerge over the next forseeable future: see Turkey. See Lebanon. See Gaza.
Giving extremists freedom and democracy, does not lead to freedcom and democracy, Castout. But to extremism and fanatics taking over command. If Egypt would not be of any important interest to us, we would not need to care, but it is of interest to us, and the whole region. It is about shifting power balances towards Iran and fundamentalism in general, it is about regional stability, and for the forseeable future it will remain to be about oil, too.
Look at all your logic, we must make them bow to our will for our interest using what brutal dictator we install and payoff and you wonder why they hate us. We claim we love freedom, yet deny it to so called radical muslims that have become that way because we want to control their land and politics.
It's not our business to say Islam is backwards because of how they live.
That's their choice, if the people want to change it, that's up to them. They have several times in history, just as we fought our civil war and created many other stupid wars for no reason. You have to remember Europe and the US became powerful by conquering other nations through history using the bible and the sword.
You ever wonder why so many lands are still so backwards. colonialism.."colonialism as "the policy of acquiring and maintaining colonies, especially for exploitation." It's the history of the world, the strong take from the weak, force them into poverty, kill them when they fight back.
Europe and the US basically did there what it did to the American Indian. The cycle of stong nations change every few hundred years. We're overall a young nation, now bankrupt, heading for the same crap, a two class society of a few percent rich, majority poor. The problem now is we live in a world full of WMD's. Eventually this cycle of maddness will be the worlds undoing.
Strange, the only brutal dictators we support happen to be on oil land, because we wont deal with our energy issues at home, so these nations of oil are added to our war self interest clause. Imagine if other nations claimed we were their self interest and if we didn't do as they pleased they bombed us into dark ages.
The US and Britian were killing muslims in mass, ruling and taking their land for hundreds of years just over 75 years ago, we're not much better. Every religion has radical elements, one day we'll wake up and stop doing things that make people turn to radical movements so they don't starve.
If the people choose to live under radical law, too dumb to come out of the dark ages, why should we care, doesn't effect us, let them eat dirt, just don't give them a reason to blame us for how it taste. We certainly have no problem with most of Africa living in the dark ages, don't see us going to war there for any issue, freedom, genocide, ect.
If these nations want to use democracy to vote in religion, let them. The GOP talks non stop of bringing this nation back to God, putting religion back in government and school. In 1000's of churchs, millions of Americans want to vote their version of God back in office. Always scares the hell out of me when people want their version of God to rule the land....simply code words for setting up an elite group of rulers to control people using fear, hellfire and guilt of religion.
The Egyptian military has staged an apparent show of strength in the capital Cairo during a sixth day of anti-government protests.
Two air force jets and a helicopter are repeatedly flying low over Tahrir (Liberation) Square, the main gathering point for demonstrators.
A column of tanks arrived there only to have its path blocked by demonstrators.
Meanwhile, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has called for an "orderly transition" of power in Egypt.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12319523
Note: Update record, 30 January 2011 Last updated at 14:28 GMT
Aaah, that explains:
1450 In Tahrir Square, the BBC's Middle East editor Jeremy Bowen notes that the tanks and fighter jets massed in front of the protesters were supplied to the Mubarak government by the US - something unlikely to endear the US to those taking to the streets, especially if Washington does not come out and openly oppose the president.
I was pondering how you mass fighter jets in front of a crowd... :hmmm:
Speaking of tanks though, I saw a tank on Al-Jazerra yesterday, it was trying to move through the square but it was literally covered with people, it was like a moving group of people with a barrel sticking out of it...quite funny really.
Haven't seen many Abrams, mostly M-60s, so I presume the Abrams are up on the borders. :yep:
http://i.imgur.com/6r0kb.jpg
http://i.imgur.com/N8Yop.jpg
M-60 and the venerable Mi-8 I'd say.
I wonder if that's Unit 777. :hmmm:
Would explain a few things.
TLAM Strike
01-30-11, 11:13 AM
Look like elements of the 26th MEU (Kearsage and Ponce) have been dispatched to the Red Sea in case there needs to be a NEO. But there is about 90,000 Americans in Egypt no way the couple dozen helis those two ships got can evac them all in any shot period of time. That number of people we are talking about like 600+ flights using C-17s fitted for passengers.
Something like this,no..
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q4F98rDlp7A
Something like this,no..
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q4F98rDlp7A
Well, kind of, but with more machine guns and commandos. :yep:
TLAM Strike, whenever I hear of civvie airevac by chopper, always makes me think of http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vj_ImnJrOA0
It's one of those scenes that, even if you weren't around in the era, just sticks in your mind.
Rockstar
01-30-11, 01:20 PM
And while everyone is looking at Egypt, unrest is breaking out in other Muslim countries. Protests are occuring in Yemen, Albania, and Jordan right now. This is not good.
Haven't seen many Abrams, mostly M-60s, so I presume the Abrams are up on the borders. :yep:
I stand corrected, the Abrams rolled in today. Apparently their commanders are quite different to the conscripts originally in Cairo, which would explain the increased military level in the city now.
Guys you're missing the fact the army is well-respected in Egypt, unlike the polics. There were stories of fraternising between soldiers and protesters and there is less likelihood of violence than with the police. If the army refuses to fire on protesters than Mubarak is finished.
Quite a few of the army level captains and tank commanders are against Mubarak themselves, I've seen pictures of them tearing up pictures of him.
I think they primarily want to enforce the curfew to get rid of the looters, many local people have made their own local defence forces against the looters and some families have taken in foreigners and directed them away from looters. It's chaotic but the people seem to be holding up well against it, but many are scared, which is understandable.
I would be extremely surprised if the military opened fire, some may have wanted it, but I think if they tried to order it the military would mutiny and overthrow Mubarak themselves. He's smart to not order it. :yep:
Skybird
01-30-11, 06:21 PM
Over here, the absence of the police in the streets today and the relative self-restraint of the military is interpreted as that they have intentionally given orders to do so, and there are indices, correspondents say, that this indeed is a well-planned operation. The goal is to show people what happens if the law and property do not get protected by police/military: looting, theft in museums, anarchy, chaos - to make people wish back the state order to take over again.
Other signs I saw in TV I interprete as that the military is rallying together again and left little doubt that in the end it is in control and is the decisive factor. The low flights of fighter-bombers over Cairo and the sending of tank formations into the still calm tourist resorts seem to indicate this.
Correspondents said that indeed in the late evening thewre were first voices to beheared that the police should take over control of security again, espoecially since the massive thefts committed in their museums.
If all this is indeed planned, and if it turns out to be successful in that it is a containment of the unrest and leaving nevertheless anti-fundamentalists and the military in power (the latter with an increase in influence in the new government), then I would say that it was extremly cold-blooded and very very clever gamble and card-playing by the regime, letting the unrest's energy fade out in a controlled way without creating the opportunity for the fundamentalists to benefit from the events. Mubarak, however, sooner or later would need to go, since he now is what a red rag is for a bull - or he does not candidate again at the autumn elections.
I hope that my little theory is correct, and if so, that it works. Anything is better than to invite the Muslimbrotherhood to power. And Joea is right - the military is very respected in Egypt indeed (and it is a quite competent one by training and mentality, better than the Saudi or Arab armies). I could imagine that the military will put pressure on Mubarak to fold.
I was wondeirng since some time what would happen if Mubarak dies, I was not happy with the idea that a family oligarchy gets installed by making his son his successor: that would have been pure provocation for the Egyptian people. If what I write above works the way I hope, then this would be an acceptable way to lead Egypt into the new post-Mubarak-era without destabilising the country and the whole region and allowing freedom to the fundamentalists.
It is the best optional scenario I can imagine currently. The US should give Mubarak asylum, he was a very reliable and trustworthy ally, and a broker between the West and Israel, and the Arabs. And he understood the importance to keep the radicals in as tight check as possible. Yes I know of the corruption of the regime and that it is a dictatorship and nthat there is torture, but still - Egypt under Mubarak was an effective factor for stabilising the region, and containing fundamentalists.
Preventing the latter from coming to power must be our absolute top priority. It seems to me that the US understands this much better than the EU.
You're not the only one to consider that Sky, I heard rumours yesterday or the day before that the absence of police has been deliberate, and, judging from what I've seen and heard, the protests do seem to be loosing momentum and dying out a bit. Meanwhile outside of the cities, Mubarak has quite a few supporters it would seem.
Hopefully the scenario you've pointed out will play out, it's certainly the best case scenario out of them all, Mubarak still goes but not in the anarchy of a revolution which leaves the door open for all kinds to jump on the bandwagon and derail what is mostly a just cause (democracy).
Still, tomorrow will bring fresh light on the situation, now that the regular forces are in Cairo, I expect things will be a bit more tightly controlled. The curfew is a joke but the police are back on the scene and they seem to be working with the impromptu militias against the looters as opposed to against both of them, so that's something at least.
ElBaradai is one to watch, I doubt he has the power to give the riots a longer lifespan, but he would be quicker to spot and exploit any mistakes or weaknesses that Mubarak makes. Alternatively, the more cynical person in me suspects that he might position himself to claim success over Mubaraks eventual (and inevitable) resignation/not standing for re-election in order to further his status.
Of course, there's the other nations in turmoil at the moment, if the Egyptian revolution fails in its initial goals, then there is a chance the other uprisings will falter out as well, particularly in places like Sudan where the military is a little quicker to bring out the guns. :yep:
Matador.es
01-31-11, 04:43 AM
Good Thing The Egyptian Police Don’t Have These (http://defensetech.org/2011/01/30/good-thing-the-egyptian-police-dont-have-these/)
HunterICX
01-31-11, 04:51 AM
http://img130.imageshack.us/img130/8742/egypte.png
http://singstarsource.com/sswf/images/smilies/facepalm2.gif
HunterICX
Castout
01-31-11, 06:31 AM
Guys you're missing the fact the army is well-respected in Egypt, unlike the polics. There were stories of fraternising between soldiers and protesters and there is less likelihood of violence than with the police. If the army refuses to fire on protesters than Mubarak is finished.
Mubarak is finished one way or the other. It comes down to what kind of end he wishes to be in after all this is over. He could have retained much dignity by stepping down during the early days but it seems he intends to play the waiting game to test the waters and gambling that this mess will quieten down on its own within days or a couple weeks and everything including his authority would be restored. In short he's making it worse for himself by antagonizing the Egyptians further and by allowing his image and authority to deteriorate to new lows. The numbers killed are rising and will continue to rise until order is restored that is by him stepping down and hopefully while being able to pick a successor who the people are able to accept at least a temporary one until next emergency free and fair election to form a new democratic and accountable Egypt government is held within months or a year or two at most. The faster being the better considering all the necessary preparation(logistics and political).
papa_smurf
01-31-11, 06:47 AM
Mubarak is finished one way or the other. It comes down to what kind of end he wishes to be in after all this is over. He could have retained much dignity by stepping down during the early days but it seems he intends to play the waiting game to test the waters and gambling that this mess will quieten down on its own within days or a couple weeks and everything including his authority would be restored. In short he's making it worse for himself by antagonizing the Egyptians further and by allowing his image and authority to deteriorate to new lows. The numbers killed are rising and will continue to rise until order is restored that is by him stepping down and hopefully while being able to pick a successor who the people are able to accept at least a temporary one until next emergency free and fair election to form a new democratic and accountable Egypt government is held within months or a year or two at most. The faster being the better considering all the necessary preparation(logistics and political).
Really hope this ends peacefully, but is doubtfull with a planned general strike tomorrow and Mubarak has completely misreading the whole situation. If he orders the military to crack down on the protesters, will they follow these orders or simply refuse?.
I doubt the military will side with Mubarak. I saw some interviewed on ABC news and they all said they wouldn't fire on their own people even if ordered to do so.
http://img130.imageshack.us/img130/8742/egypte.png
http://singstarsource.com/sswf/images/smilies/facepalm2.gif
HunterICX
Took me a moment...and then I
http://dailyfacepalm.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/03/th_worf.gif
VipertheSniper
01-31-11, 09:23 AM
http://singstarsource.com/sswf/images/smilies/facepalm2.gif
HunterICX
I mean there surely are programs out there that put in the right names, so I can only guess they do this on purpose.
1541: Israeli officials tell the Associated Press that they have agreed to allow the Egyptian army to move two additional battalions, or about 800 troops, into the Sinai peninsula for the first time since the 1979 peace agreement between the two countries. The soldiers are being sent to the area around the Red Sea resort of Sharm al-Sheikh, where there are thousands of foreign tourists, the officials add.
Impressive.
Egypt's army has vowed it will not use force against the tens of thousands of people protesting for the removal of the regime of President Hosni Mubarak.
It said it respected the "legitimate rights of the people".
The statement comes ahead of a massive march planned for Cairo on Tuesday and amid a call for a general strike.
Meanwhile, Vice President Omar Suleiman has said Mr Mubarak has asked him to open dialogue with all political parties on constitutional reform.
In an announcement on state television, also said that new elections would be held in some districts where there was evidence of irregularities in last year's parliamentary election.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12330169
Note: Update record, 31 January 2011 Last updated at 20:33 GMT
Meanwhile, Vice President Omar Suleiman has said Mr Mubarak has asked him to open dialogue with all political parties on constitutional reform.
In an announcement on state television, also said that new elections would be held in some districts where there was evidence of irregularities in last year's parliamentary election.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12330169
Note: Update record, 31 January 2011 Last updated at 20:33 GMT
I think they will try to work out some deal involving reforms and leaving muslim brothers out of equation.
Hopefully.
According to Israeli news in some cases MB are trying to provoke Egyptian army to shoot.
Castout
01-31-11, 05:51 PM
Really hope this ends peacefully, but is doubtfull with a planned general strike tomorrow and Mubarak has completely misreading the whole situation. If he orders the military to crack down on the protesters, will they follow these orders or simply refuse?.
If the military is reckless enough to actually back Mubarak by cracking down on protesters Mubarak will still lose much of his legitimacy both in his country and among Arab states and especially the rest of the world.
The military knows this that Mubarak has lost his legitimacy. I for one hope that the Egyptians will get what they want which is far more than the ousting of Mubarak from the president office. The Egyptians want a free, democratic country which government is fully accountable to the Egyptians. They want rule of law and respect to individual rights instead institutionalized gang rule which is the style of dictator all over. They want what every Europeans and Americans have been enjoying. The rights to be free people without edicts which are contrary to their man nature requirements. And they want it bad enough to risk losing their lives on the street and such they deserve to get what they want.
If the military is reckless enough to actually back Mubarak by cracking down on protesters Mubarak will still lose much of his legitimacy both in his country and among Arab states and especially the rest of the world.
The military knows this that Mubarak has lost his legitimacy. I for one hope that the Egyptians will get what they want which is far more than the ousting of Mubarak from the president office. The Egyptians want a free, democratic country which government is fully accountable to the Egyptians. They want rule of law and respect to individual rights. They want what every Europeans and Americans have been enjoying. The rights to be free people without edicts which are contrary to their man nature requirements.
By free election Egypt will never be a free country.
The election will be first and last free election for another 30 years to come.
They must make some deal or have semi free election.
Castout
01-31-11, 06:11 PM
By free election Egypt will never be a free country.
The election will be first and last free election for another 30 years to come.
They must make some deal or have semi free election.
If the west back another dictatorship I'm afraid that this will repeat itself sooner or later and propel the Egyptians to look to China or other power polar than US and her allies and have Egypt politically realigned for a long time.
What we are seeing now in Egypt is actually the fruit of US realpolitik foreign policy which is a pragmatic approach to foreign relations. Being pragmatic means solving or rather delaying the outcome of the problem without having to deal with the issues at hand. It's the lazy and selfish man's approach to doing things with little regard to long term consequences. Of course the proponent of relpolitik may not admit that their policy is now bearing the fruit of Egyptians revolt but like it or not, admitted or otherwise this is the result of that policy.
TLAM Strike
01-31-11, 06:20 PM
If the west back another dictatorship I'm afraid that this will repeat itself sooner or later and propel the Egyptians to look to China or other power polar than US and her allies and have Egypt politically realigned for a long time.
The Egyptians have been in the Chinese camp before and will no doubt turn to them again. Of course the arms the Chinese sold them look something like this:
http://img834.imageshack.us/img834/7063/romeoclassegypt1.jpg
:har:
Armistead
01-31-11, 06:29 PM
If the west back another dictatorship I'm afraid that this will repeat itself sooner or later and propel the Egyptians to look to China or other power polar than US and her allies and have Egypt politically realigned for a long time.
What we are seeing now in Egypt is actually the fruit of US realpolitik foreign policy which is a pragmatic approach to foreign relations. Being pragmatic means solving or rather delaying the outcome of the problem without having to deal with the issues at hand. It's the lazy and selfish man's approach to doing things with little regard to long term consequences. Of course the proponent of relpolitik may not admit that their policy is now bearing the fruit of Egyptians revolt but like it or not, admitted or otherwise this is the result of that policy.
I totally agree. Our continued support for puppet dictators over democracy because it serves us better is lie. The people get more radical because of the brutal dictators and when the country goes....extremist often come to power, thus resulting in us going to war later to install another puppet government to suit our needs and the process continues. Only problem now the extremist we create today may blow us up with a nuc tomorrow.
Takeda Shingen
01-31-11, 06:39 PM
The police are gone, vigilante groups roaming the streets. Military says it isn't going to step in. Mubarak still says he's not stepping aside. What a mess.
I totally agree. Our continued support for puppet dictators over democracy because it serves us better is lie. .
What democracy....US tried to install democracy in Iraq - remember?
Its this dictatorship or other.
In this case it was friendly dictatorship and definitely not a puppet state of US unless you call any state with similar interests a puppet state.
Egyptians enjoyed more freedom than any other Arab country and this mess is an outcome of that.
Castout
01-31-11, 08:15 PM
The Egyptians have been in the Chinese camp before and will no doubt turn to them again. Of course the arms the Chinese sold them look something like this:
http://img834.imageshack.us/img834/7063/romeoclassegypt1.jpg
:har:
:DL I won't bet on that picture for long. China is changing fast. Within a decade or two they should be able to sell something military that would make other people turn their heads and notice.
What democracy....US tried to install democracy in Iraq - remember?
Its this dictatorship or other.
In this case it was friendly dictatorship and definitely not a puppet state of US unless you call any state with similar interests a puppet state.
Egyptians enjoyed more freedom than any other Arab country and this mess is an outcome of that.
Iraq is not to be placed in the same situation with Egypt. There was no roots in toppling Saddam then due to worse oppression the Iraqis had been enduring for decades. I'm going to say this again that the one who toppled Saddam regime was US and her allies and not people's movement. Iraqis may need a generation or two before being able to think as free people and civil society to reign provided the environment is free for civic and personal development. As it is now it's either sheep or fundamentalist.
Dictatorship has its price and could ruin people's soul and spirit. It relies much on the young to bring about change. That impatience in them is what drives them to the street. They have a big stake to where their country is going and they still have their lives far ahead of them for the future to actually matter and they have little to lose. In short the young in any country has a short history so they have little to regard and a short fuse which comes from their young blood.
The protests in Egypt are posing a policy dilemma for President Obama's administration
A massive demonstration is due to be held in Cairo as protesters step up their efforts to force President Hosni Mubarak from power.Organisers say they hope one million will come onto the streets in what is expected to be the biggest show yet. A rally is also planned in Alexandria.
Egypt's powerful army has vowed it will not use force against the protesters.
Meanwhile, new Vice President Omar Suleiman says he will hold cross-party talks on constitutional reform.Mr Mubarak reshuffled his cabinet on Monday to try to head off the protests, replacing the widely despised Interior Minister Habib al-Adly.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12331520
Note: Update record, 1 February 2011 Last updated at 06:56 GMT
Matador.es
02-01-11, 04:19 AM
I just saw footage of army "tanks" protecting protestors who received fire from police, that is of course a nice controverse :)
EDIT: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HdPcZhlM-qI
Million person march supposed to be held today may be the deciding point for Egypt. http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-world/egyptians-amass-for-biggest-day-of-anger-yet-20110201-1acjj.html
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/02/01/3127292.htm
Old dumbass George Bush seems to have been right:
"Our commitment to democracy" is being tested in the Middle East, which must be a focus of American policy for decades to come. In many nations in the Middle East, countries of great strategic importance, democracy has not yet taken root. And the questions arise: Are the peoples of the Middle East somehow beyond the reach of liberty? Are millions of men and women and children condemned by history or culture to live in despotism? Are they alone never to know freedom and never even to have a choice in the matter?"
Rockstar
02-01-11, 02:48 PM
Muslim Brotherhood calls for war against Israel.
http://www.jpost.com/Headlines/Article.aspx?id=206130
It appears the horn of Javan may be breaking
Heard that the marches have gone peacfully so far. Mubarak apparently addressed the nation but I doubt anything he says will change their mind if it involves him staying put.
The Govt shut down trains and transport to prevent people outside Cairo from joining the march. The people in Alexandria held their own march.
Skybird
02-01-11, 05:12 PM
The days of Mubarak are over, I am now absolutely certain. Yesterday and today I had several telephone talks with a young man I have not been in contact with for many years, but who was a good friend and scout for me longer time ago. He was so enthusiastic and excited about what was going on that he spends his day currently with just calling everybody outside Egypt that he ever learned to know. :DL He will lose a fortune this way :haha: I combine his first hand confessions, although they are subjective of course, with the info we all see on TV, and I am certain now that it is over indeed. Mubarak will not get the delay until autumn.
The enthusiasm of man y of the younger Egyptioans I find very sympathetic, and it reminds me of the revultionary mood in Germany 1989.
If only there would not be the concern regarding fundamentalists taking the new freedom to strengthen themselves over the next one or two legislation periods, and then ending the freedom again.
My friend has invited me to come to Egypt and stay with his family again like back in the good old days. It's a shame that I am currently stripped of all financial reserves or need to keep some money for important spendings later this year - I really feel tempted to go back. My last stay was in 2004.
My compliment for the Egyptian military - it seems to play a much more reasonable card than I imagined.
It seems unrest is breaking out in Algeria and Syria now, too. Again, it seems to be the facebook generations leading the revolts. I again am concerned about the danger of the fundamentalists coming to power. This chain of revolutions, if it ends in that, no doubt holds immense risks. But at least in some countries, and maybe especially Egypt, maybe the chances justify to take these risks indeed. I am currently altering my opions on some of these places a bit, seeing the need that maybe I have to admit that the chances justify the risks.
If it works well, I will be the first to applaud them.
But if my initial scepticism in some years should be proven to have been correct, then the gods may have mercy with us all, because then the region will be a powderkeg much much hotter than ever before. I hope my concerns will be proven wrong.
I strongly hope that any coming political order in Egypt will carry on the cooperation and good ties with Israel, and will end the supression and persecutiuon of the Christian minority.
Heck, there have even been rallies in Gaza, against Hamas. Containing Hamas would be in the interest of both countries, Israel and Egypt alike.
I have the data for three flights to Egypt tomorrow, many free seats it seems, since many have cancelled their plans to go there. Great temptation for me to go, but the money, oh that damn money :sunny: However, if you don't hear from me in the coming days, you know where I am. :DL
And good ol' Skybird would finally end up aboard one of these airliners, that he has successfully evaded throughout all his travels in past times! :D
Armistead
02-01-11, 05:48 PM
Skybird, interesting post.
It is a very serious question, will radical elements take over...no doubt a vote today the MB would gain a lot of seats.
I think the mistake is we create radical states supporting brutal dictators. I think it always backfires when we support corrupt dictators to meet limited goals for a period of time, a short fix so to say. The cycle always seems to be we support a brutal dictator that sort of does what we want until the people revolt then radicals take power, then we go to war, then we install another puppet government or dictator..rinse and repeat.
I think in many of these states the youth, the internet generation is in conflict with the older religious generation. However, they often turn to extremism because it stands against brutal dictators. I'm not sure they're after installing theocracy as much as they are about having jobs and being able to eat.
I think the right move is to stop supporting dictators and let the people decide, what happens will happen. That's hard, because of our self interest in oil. The best hope is the upcoming generation will choose freedom over extremism. I think it will eventually happen if we would get our nose out of their business. We can't do that because we won't use the energy sources at home, clean coal, nuclear, ect..
Still, it's possible they will turn to extremism, when you're starving most fall prey to who they think will get something done, but I think many youth in muslim nations are seeing how failed this approach has worked for other nations. The problem seems and has always been, seems no matter who leads government they become corrupt, we're a good example.
In all the muslim nations without oil...do you see us getting involved like ones with oil?
Obvious it's more complex, but we missed so many chances to let freedom ring in the mideast the past 50 years, supporting brutal dictators that drive the population into poverty.
We need to become energy efficient. Green energy why needed is too far into the future and I hate the liberals fight on so many bogus enviroment issues. I'm all for saving land and animals, but not at the expense of most of us living in poverty and war.
Castout
02-01-11, 05:56 PM
Yeah US and Israel need a reminder that Egypt doesn't revolve around them or rather that Egyptians don't revolve around any nation :O:.
I mean for God sake it's a people's movement if you oppose that for your own benefit at the cost of 80 million Egypt's own people then you're fuc*ed up.
It's bad enough to back a dictatorial regime it would be worse to defend it.
And if Israel is hated by many Arabs well Israel needs to realize that some of its own actions over the past last few decades may have contributed to that. When there's inequity it's only natural that some people who couldn't stand seeing that to raise to meet that challenge even in the form of mere sentiment against Israel. All nations should be sensitive to their own actions that may jeopardize their own existence or merely deprive them of international support and if they already observe that and still being picked on I'm sure the fight will go a lot smoother for them though fierce as it maybe than otherwise because being right is a force to be reckoned with in itself and being right wins you friends and support even possibly from unlikely places.
What happened to Egypt is inevitable at the fundamental level. Dictatorship is never a sustainable form of ruling.
US and Israel invested much of the middle east to one man that is Hosni Mubarak and you should never invest everything on one man or one hinge because when that hinge is lost you will be risking the whole house. It's a stupid strategy to invest everything on one man or even one tyrant. Easy but stupid. And a stupid deserves payment to his stupidity. All front hopefully or worse. Ouch.
Next sweep South East Asia I certainly hope so but South East Asians are generally timid people.
Skybird
02-01-11, 06:07 PM
Islam and violent tyrants/tyrannies have been coupled upo frombeginning on, and until today it is at war with itself, an internal civil war. Some of these tyrants behaved vilent in order to unite some factions behind them - by forcing them, or focussing them on a third, common enemy. Some tyrants behaved violent to secure their power, which is acceptable thorughtout IOslamic historyx as long as the ruling of ther tyrant honours basic demands of Islam. And sometimes tyrants were more like authoritarian people that behaved like deictators in order to keep Islam in check.
You imply that we and our desire for oil and our poslicies created Oriental tyrannies. Historically, that is wrong. Islam fostered and breeded tyrants all by itself. And maybe it is the internet generatiuon that after over 1 thousand years has a realistic chance to break this pattern. If the new global communication and media would not be there, I would not waste one second on thinking about Islamic societies future chnages - there would not be any.
I also refer to the impacct organisations walking the path of Wikileaks promise to make. For the oriental world, it is about gaining reason and education. For the occident (us), it is about transparency. Free flowing communication that is not censored neither by Egypt or Iran nor by the USA or the EU are the inevitable precondtion for education and transparency, raising a truly responsible-feeling political mindset that is "reason" and that is "democracy".
Anmd that is why all - I say: ALL - governments try to prevnt it and try to manipulate it. The power of the few needs the lack of info and the disinformation of the many. That's valid both in the Orient, and in the West. transparency, education, reason is what beats political hypocrites and oligarchic parties and economic lobbies in the West, and it is what could beat religious ideologists in the East.
Takeda Shingen
02-01-11, 06:33 PM
Well, now Mubarak has said that he'll step down when a new leader is 'elected'. Since his government controls the election process, the message is more along the lines of 'I'll step down, but only when I'm good and ready'.
Castout
02-01-11, 06:43 PM
@Skybird. Violent tyrant is not the trademark of Islam. Russia, China, Singapore, Cuba and Libya are a few other nations famed for their authoritarian regime.
Of Singapore which I know much better than the others there are resemblance with Egypt ruling dynasty:
Family run country from father to be passed to son,
zero tolerance to opposition, dissenting and simply differing views,
election as mere tool to serve to gain political legitimacy,
amassing excessive wealth due to extended abuse of power in billions of dollar excluding the hundreds more of state sovereign fund they control,
abuse of law and law enforcement institution to persecute dissident and political opposition or simply the hated for whatever whimsical reason.
Murder of the innocents for whatever whimsical reasoning.
Depriving hated figure of livelihood and bankrupting them with unjust libel
Claim of sustainable high GDP growth
Effectively a one party state system
Gagged press
Abuse or total control of any state institution even to mental health institution.
Atmosphere of living in fear and oppressed due to lack of freedom of speech and public gathering
No society participation in politics
Basically playing God in the city state and in surrounding region. Money talks.
RELIABLE US ALLIES. Though they are never reliable just fearful of any big power. They are now trying to APPEASE the Chinese very hard now. At least the world knows who they are afraid of now.
Well, now Mubarak has said that he'll step down when a new leader is 'elected'. Since his government controls the election process, the message is more along the lines of 'I'll step down, but only when I'm good and ready'.
Yeah quite an insincere message. Might even propel more demonstration.
Jimbuna
02-01-11, 07:02 PM
I think it's not about 'how' the change/transgession will ocurr but 'when'....only a matter of time but hopefully it will be a peaceful process.
krashkart
02-01-11, 09:22 PM
I keep reading about hopes for freedom and such for the Egyptians, but the only alternative ruling party I've seen mentioned is the Muslim Brotherhood. How will that make a positive change from Mubarak's regime, especially in light of the recent MB call to prepare for war with Israel? Doesn't sound like anyone that's been protesting over there has really thought this through. When it's all said and done, how many will be left standing around asking, "Uhh... now what?", and later on, "Oh crumbs! We helped install another corrupt dictatorship!". :06:
Seems like anarchy would only be a slightly less appealing alternative to the two choices they have right now. :-?
Edit: I hope that didn't come off as obtuse. There's a lot about this upheaval stuff that I don't understand. :oops:
Castout
02-02-11, 05:17 AM
Just because Israel says Muslim Brotherhood is an extremist group it doesn't make it so.
Read more sources. Muslim brother hood is a moderate group. Israel is xenophobic of anything Islam besides it is only one of several groups in Egypt I'm sure. This fusing about them would only make them more popular than they really are.
Skybird
02-02-11, 06:36 AM
Just because Israel says Muslim Brotherhood is an extremist group it doesn't make it so.
Read more sources. Muslim brother hood is a moderate group. Israel is xenophobic of anything Islam besides it is only one of several groups in Egypt I'm sure. This fusing about them would only make them more popular than they really are.
Labelling the Muslim brotherhood a moderate group dequalifies you for any further argument, Castout. Obviously you don'T know much about them.
And no, Israel'S assessement is unimportant here (though they are correct in their concerns about the MB).
Offspins and allies of the MB run structures in all Europe. In Germany, many of them are under surveillance by the Office for the Protection of the Constitutio´n. The MB is linked to financing terror and radical missionising as well.
The MB is an extremely dangerous and radical player. They just play their game clever. in Egypt they will ride the democracy train as long as it serves their interest to accumulate influence and legitimiation, then they will abandon it and install Shariah and a theocracy, if given the opportunity.
Like Hamas and Hezbollah they run comprehensive social wellfare and education (Islamic education, mind you) programs at the same time, in egypt most of the structures in the public health sector are infiltrated and/or run by them, since the regime had failed in them. It'S a good opportuntiy for these organsiations to recruit, to raise their future followers and to gain sympathies.
But still, it seems many of the young facebook generation in Egypt also fear the MB more than anything else, also many of the burgoisie. This seems to have chnaged since the 90s and in the past 10 years. Back then there was more general sympoathy for them. Maybe because the regime still sat strong in the saddle. Now that more freedom promsies to be around the corner, people become more aware of threats to what they just have won. At least I hope this is what explains it (if there really has been such a change in sympathy for the MB).
Skybird
02-02-11, 07:33 AM
And this, random finds of today that just fit the criticism I directed at Castout:
Fear the Muslim Brotherhood
At the Daily Beast, Bruce Riedel has posted (http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/2011-01-27/muslim-brotherhood-could-win-in-egypt-protests-and-why-obama-shouldnt-worry/) an essay called “Don’t fear Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood,” the classic, conventional-wisdom response to the crisis in Egypt. The Muslim Brotherhood is just fine, he’d have you believe, no need to worry. After all, the Brothers have even renounced violence!
One might wonder how an organization can be thought to have renounced violence when it has inspired more jihadists than any other, and when its Palestinian branch, the Islamic Resistance Movement, is probably more familiar to you by the name Hamas — a terrorist organization committed by charter to the violent destruction of Israel. Indeed, in recent years, the Brotherhood (a.k.a., the Ikhwan) has enthusiastically praised jihad and even applauded — albeit in more muted tones — Osama bin Laden. None of that, though, is an obstacle for Mr. Riedel, a former CIA officer who is now a Brookings scholar and Obama administration national-security adviser. Following the template the progressive (and bipartisan) foreign-policy establishment has been sculpting for years, his “no worries” conclusion is woven from a laughably incomplete history of the Ikhwan.
By his account, Brotherhood founder Hassan al-Banna “preached a fundamentalist Islamism and advocated the creation of an Islamic Egypt, but he was also open to importing techniques of political organization and propaganda from Europe that rapidly made the Brotherhood a fixture in Egyptian politics.” What this omits, as I recount in The Grand Jihad (http://www.amazon.com/Grand-Jihad-Islam-Sabotage-America/dp/1594033773/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1296250238&sr=1-1), is that terrorism and paramilitary training were core parts of Banna’s program. It is by leveraging the resulting atmosphere of intimidation that the Brotherhood’s “politics” have achieved success. The Ikhwan’s activist organizations follow the same program in the United States, where they enjoy outsize political influence because of the terrorist onslaught.
Banna was a practical revolutionary. On the one hand, he instructed his votaries to prepare for violence. They had to understand that, in the end — when the time was right, when the Brotherhood was finally strong enough that violent attacks would more likely achieve Ikhwan objectives than provoke crippling blowback — violence would surely be necessary to complete the revolution (meaning, to institute sharia, Islam’s legal-political framework). Meanwhile, on the other hand, he taught that the Brothers should take whatever they could get from the regime, the political system, the legal system, and the culture. He shrewdly realized that, if the Brothers did not overplay their hand, if they duped the media, the intelligentsia, and the public into seeing them as fighters for social justice, these institutions would be apt to make substantial concessions. Appeasement, he knew, is often a society’s first response to a threat it does not wish to believe is existential.
Here’s Riedel again:
By World War 2, [the Brotherhood] became more violent in its opposition to the British and the British-dominated monarchy, sponsoring assassinations and mass violence. After the army seized power in 1952, [the Brotherhood] briefly flirted with supporting Gamal Abdel Nasser’s government but then moved into opposition. Nasser ruthlessly suppressed it.
This history is selective to the point of parody. The Brotherhood did not suddenly become violent (or “more violent”) during World War II. It was violent from its origins two decades earlier. This fact — along with Egyptian Islamic society’s deep antipathy toward the West and its attraction to the Nazis’ virulent anti-Semitism — is what gradually beat European powers, especially Britain, into withdrawal.
Banna himself was killed in 1949, during the Brotherhood’s revolt against the British-backed monarchy. Thereafter, the Brotherhood did not wait until after the Free Officers Movement seized power to flirt with Nasser. They were part of the coup, Nasser having personally lobbied Sayyid Qutb (the most significant Ikhwan figure after Banna’s death) for an alliance.
Omitting this detail helps Riedel whitewash the Brothers’ complicity in what befell them. The Ikhwan did not seamlessly “move into the opposition” once Nasser came to power. First, it deemed itself double-crossed by Nasser, who had wooed the Brotherhood into the coup by signaling sympathy for its Islamist agenda but then, once in power, declined to implement elements of sharia. Furthermore, Nasser did not just wake up one day and begin “ruthlessly suppressing” the Brotherhood; the Ikhwan tried to assassinate him. It was at that point, when the Islamist coup attempt against the new regime failed, that the strongman cracked down relentlessly.
Riedel next asserts: “Nasser and his successors, Anwar Sadat and Mubarak, have alternatively repressed and demonized the Brotherhood or tolerated it as an anti-communist and right-wing opposition.” This, too, is hopelessly wrong and incomplete. To begin with, regardless of how obdurately progressives repeat the claim, Islamism is not a right-wing movement. The Brotherhood’s is a revolutionary program, the political and economic components of which are essentially socialist. It is no accident that Islamists in America are among the staunchest supporters of Obamacare and other redistributionist elements of the Obama agenda. In his Social Justice in Islam, Qutb concludes that Marx’s system is far superior to capitalism, which Islamists deplore. Communism, he argues, faltered principally in its rigid economic determinism, thus missing the spiritual components of Allah’s totalitarian plan — though Qutb compared it favorably to Christianity, which he saw as insufficiently attentive to earthly concerns.
Nasser’s persecution of the Ikhwan led many of its leading figures to flee Egypt for Saudi Arabia, where the Brothers were welcomed because they were perceived, quite correctly, as urbane but stalwart jihadists who would greatly benefit a backwards society — especially its education system (Banna and Qutb were both academics, and the Brotherhood teemed with professionals trained in many disciplines). The toxic mix of Saudi billions and Brotherhood ideology — the marriage of Saudi Wahhabism and Brotherhood Salafism — created the modern Islamist movement and inspired many of the terrorist organizations (including al-Qaeda) and other Islamist agitators by which we are confronted today. That Wahhabism and Salafism are fundamentalist doctrines does not make them right-wing. In fact, Islamism is in a virulent historical phase, and is a far more daunting challenge to the West than it was a half-century ago, precisely because its lavishly funded extremism has overwhelmed the conservative constraints of Arab culture.
Sadat pivoted away from his predecessor’s immersion of Egypt into the Soviet orbit. He did indeed invite the Ikhwan to return home, as Riedel indicates. Sadat knew the Brothers were bad news, but — much like today’s geopolitical big thinkers — he hubristically believed he could control the damage, betting that the Ikhwan would be more a thorn in the side of the jilted Nasserite Communists than a nuisance for the successor regime.
Riedel’s readers may not appreciate what a naïve wager that was, since he fails to mention that the Brotherhood eventually murdered Sadat in a 1981 coup attempt — in accordance with a fatwa issued by Sheikh Omar Abdel Rahman (later of World Trade Center–bombing fame) after Sadat made peace with the hated “Zionist entity.”
Sadat’s successor, Mubarak, is undeniably a tyrant who has kept emergency powers in force through the three decades since Sadat’s assassination. Any fair assessment, however, must concede that he has had his reasons. Egypt is not just plagued by economic stagnation and inequality; it has been brutalized by jihadist terror. It would be fair enough — though by no means completely convincing — for Riedel and others to argue that Mubarak’s reign has been overkill. It makes no sense, though, to ignore both the reason emergency powers were instituted in the first place and the myriad excuses jihadists have given Mubarak to maintain them.
On that score, the Brotherhood seems comparatively moderate, if only because the most horrific atrocities have been committed by two even worse terrorist organizations — Abdel Rahman’s Gamaat al Islamia and Ayman al-Zawahiri’s Islamic Jihad, both precursors to al-Qaeda (in which Zawahiri is bin Laden’s deputy). Of course, Zawahiri — like bin Laden and such al-Qaeda chieftains as 9/11 architect Khalid Sheikh Mohammed — came of age as a Muslim Brother, and Abdel Rahman notoriously had a close working relationship with the Ikhwan. But even if we close our eyes to the Ikhwan’s contributions to terrorist violence in Egypt since its attempted forcible overthrow of the regime in 1981, we must not overlook the sophisticated game the Ikhwan plays when it comes to terrorism.
Occasionally, the Brotherhood condemns terrorist attacks, but not because it regards terrorist violence as wrong per se. Instead, attacks are criticized either as situationally condemnable (al-Qaeda’s 1998 embassy bombings, though directed at American interests, killed many Muslims and were not supported by an authoritative fatwa), or as counterproductive (the 9/11 attacks provoked a backlash that resulted in the invasion and occupation of Muslim countries, the killing of many Muslims, and severe setbacks to the cause of spreading Islam). Yet, on other occasions, particularly in the Arab press, the Ikhwan embraces violence — fueling Hamas and endorsing the murder of Americans in Iraq.
In addition, the Brotherhood even continues to lionize Osama bin Laden. In 2008, for example, “Supreme Guide” Muhammad Mahdi Akef lauded (http://www.investigativeproject.org/685/muslim-brotherhood-friend-or-foe-new-ipt-profile) al-Qaeda’s emir, saying that bin Laden is not a terrorist at all but a “mujahid,” a term of honor for a jihad warrior. The Supreme Guide had “no doubt” about bin Laden’s “sincerity in resisting the occupation,” a point on which he proclaimed bin Laden “close to Allah on high.” Yes, Akef said, the Brotherhood opposed the killing of “civilians” — and note that, in Brotherhood ideology, one who assists “occupiers” or is deemed to oppose Islam is not a civilian. But Akef affirmed the Brotherhood’s support for al-Qaeda’s “activities against the occupiers.”
By this point, the Ikhwan’s terror cheerleading should surprise no one — no more than we should be surprised when the Brotherhood’s sharia compass, Sheikh Yusuf Qaradawi, approves suicide bombings or unleashes rioting over mere cartoons; no more than when the Ikhwan’s Hamas faction reaffirms its foundational pledge to destroy Israel. Still, just in case it is not obvious enough that the “Brotherhood renounces violence” canard is just that, a canard, consider Akef’s explicit call (http://www.investigativeproject.org/1161/muslim-brotherhood-leader-encourages) for jihad in Egypt just two years ago, saying that the time “requires the raising of the young people on the basis of the principles of jihad so as to create mujahideen [there’s that word again] who love to die as much as others love to live, and who can perform their duty towards their God, themselves, and their homeland.” That leitmotif — We love death more than you love life — has been a staple of every jihadist from bin Laden through Maj. Nidal Hasan, the Fort Hood killer.
To this day, the Brotherhood’s motto remains, “Allah is our objective, the Prophet is our leader, the Koran is our law, Jihad is our way, and dying in the way of Allah is our highest hope. Allahu akbar!” Still, our see-no-Islamic-evil foreign-policy establishment blathers on about the Brotherhood’s purported renunciation of violence — and never you mind that, with or without violence, its commitment is, as Qaradawi puts it, to “conquer America” and “conquer Europe.” It is necessary to whitewash the Ikhwan’s brutal legacy and its tyrannical designs in order to fit it into the experts’ paradigm: history for simpletons. This substitute for thinking holds that, as Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice famously told an Egyptian audience in 2005, America has too often opted for stability rather than freedom. As a result, the story goes, our nation has chosen to support dictators when we should have been supporting . . . never mind that.
But we have to mind that. History is rarely a Manichean contest between good and evil. It’s not a choice between the pro-Western shah and Iranian freedom, but between the shah and Khomeini’s ruthless Islamist revolution. It’s not a choice between the pro-Western Musharraf and Pakistani freedom, but between Musharraf and a tense alliance of kleptocratic socialists and Islamists. Back in the 1940s, it was not a choice between the British-backed monarchy and Egyptian freedom, but between the monarchy and a conglomeration of Nasserite pan-Arab socialists, Soviet Communists, and Brotherhood Islamists. And today, the choice is not between the pro-American Mubarak and Egyptian freedom; it is a question of whether to offer tepid support to a pro-American dictator or encourage swift transition to a different kind of tyranny — one certain to be a lot worse for us, for the West at large, and for our Israeli ally: the Muslim Brotherhood tempered only, if at all, by Mohamed ElBaradei, an anti-American leftist who willfully abetted Iran’s nuclear ambitions while running the International Atomic Energy Agency.
History is not a quest for freedom. This is particularly true in the Islamic ummah, where the concept of freedom is not reasoned self-determination, as in the West, but nearly the opposite: perfect submission to Allah’s representative on earth, the Islamic state. Coupled with a Western myopia that elevates democratic forms over the culture of liberty, the failure to heed this truth has, in just the past few years, put Hamas in charge of Gaza, positioned Hezbollah to topple the Lebanese government, and presented Islamists with Kosovo — an enduring sign that, where Islam is concerned, the West can be counted on to back away even from the fundamental principle that a sovereign nation’s territorial integrity is inviolable.
The Obama administration has courted Egyptian Islamists from the start. It invited the Muslim Brotherhood to the president’s 2009 Cairo speech, even though the organization is officially banned in Egypt. It has rolled out the red carpet to the Brotherhood’s Islamist infrastructure in the U.S. — CAIR, the Muslim American Society, the Islamic Society of North America, the Ground Zero mosque activists — even though many of them have a documented history of Hamas support. To be sure, the current administration has not been singular in this regard. The courting of Ikhwan-allied Islamists has been a bipartisan project since the early 1990s, and elements of the intelligence community and the State Department have long agitated for a license to cultivate the Brotherhood overtly. They think what Anwar Sadat thought: Hey, we can work with these guys.
There is a very good chance we are about to reap what they’ve sown. We ought to be very afraid.
http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/258419/fear-muslim-brotherhood-andrew-c-mccarthy
I noted the above when having this read (http://ricochet.com/main-feed/Well-Isn-t-This-Depressing)and the video on top of it. Play the video.
Maybe this should be one of the tests for Egypt’s democrats in the streets: Where do you stand on Israel? If they are really democrats, or just pragmatists, the young among them protesting for higher pay would answer that warmer relations with an advanced, European-style economy—like, say, Israel’s—would provide jobs for the millions of Egypt’s unemployed. Of course that is not the answer you’re going to get from the young men now filling the streets of Cairo. Or forget about Israel and ask them instead about Hezbollah. Do they support the Islamic resistance? Of course they do, because Egypt’s most famous democrat Saad Eddine Ibrahim supports Hezbollah, the outfit that has turned the remnants of Lebanese democracy on its head while killing its opponents.
How did the editor end? "The most depressing thing about that is that it must be said. No, wait. The most depressing thing is that no one is going to listen."
One of the readers' comments caught my attention, somebody called "Katievs":
I predict that those who argue that Islam is compatible with classical liberalism are going to find it harder and harder to do so convincingly. The evidence that the religion itself primitivizes peoples is mounting.
I put this down to these elements in the religion.
- Its endorsement of the use of military force for religious aims, and rejection of freedom of conscience
- Its rejection of natural law
- Its sexual teachings and ethos, which tend inexorably to degrade women and brutalize men.
I'll say again what I've said before, westerners are far too little conscious of how much their freedoms are are fruit of judeo-Christian tradition and Scripture.
That is the same what I say: I am a spiritual atheist, I am no Christian and I condemn the church and will fight it whenever possible: but I am also aware that our current concepts of freedoms and laws heavily depend on the historical forming of their basic roots that brought them up, finally. We are where we are due to our Judeo-christian cultural heritage, in good and in bad. What we have - we have gained because of this and the ancient Greek philosophical and scientific world, we gained our status sometimes by being helped by religion, but also many times having needed to actively fight against it and overturn it's claims for power. It was the conflict that also added to the benefits that we won - and that maybe would not be there without conflict having formed and defined our understanding of these ben efits. No matter how you look at it, we are the benefitters of these historical processes.
Historical processes that have no comparing processes in the Islamic world.
Mubaraks supporters are entering Cairo now, clashes taking place. Now things are going to get even more bloody.
Tribesman
02-02-11, 09:23 AM
Labelling the Muslim brotherhood a moderate group dequalifies you for any further argument
Your phobias and well demonstrated bigotry disqualifies you from entering any topic where the word "muslim" might be mentioned:yeah:
Mubaraks supporters are entering Cairo now, clashes taking place. Now things are going to get even more bloody.
Lets guess, crowds of "angry young men" suddenly appear to love their dictatorship and attack the main protests while the crowds are hemmed in, bloody clashes occur and the army is forced to disperse the crowds. Once dispersed the anti dictator protesters start getting visits as the "peaceful transition" takes the 30 years of emergency law and makes it seem like a picnic with a huge clampdown on any dissenting voices.
The dictator later hands over to a new dictator and the west breathes a sigh of relief as if there was a democracy they might have difficulty getting their own way, with lots of empty arguements about how Islamists might have taken over and caused instabilty instead of the boiling instability which is inherrant with the dictators
Just because Israel says Muslim Brotherhood is an extremist group it doesn't make it so.
.
Mubarak said so middle class Egyptian say so- those that want Egypt to be democratic country.
Israeli say so not because we are born with islamphobia...we just hear all the time from MB and alike that Israel has to be destroyed.
MB learned well how to play their game its time you catch up.
I as Israeli would like more than anyone to see Egypt democratic and whole ****ing middle east.
It would end all the problems here.
Stealth Hunter
02-02-11, 11:22 AM
@Skybird. Violent tyrant is not the trademark of Islam. Russia, China, Singapore, Cuba and Libya are a few other nations famed for their authoritarian regime.
Should have included Germany on the historical list.:O:
Skybird
02-02-11, 11:52 AM
Ideologies claim different means and behaviors which they either legitimise on behalf of using them, or legitimise by the other needing to use them in order to defend themselves from said ideology's claims.
In case of Islam, the use of force for acchieving goals according to supremacist claims, totalitarian social control and gaining monocultural dominance, always has been part of the agenda, from Muhammad's time on. Muhammad called for murder, he ordered torture, intimidation and persectuiuon of critics, he hated Jews, ensalved women and young girls and used them himself or distributed them amongst his followers as sex servants to bolost their loyalty or to reward them, and he blackmailed and enforced protection money. So what else to expect from the heritage of his mind's wonderful view on things?
But i was abouzt another thing, actually, and that is that Islamic societies since ages accept and tolerate strong tyrants at their top as long as these tyrants serve at least lip confessions and serve at least minimum contributions on behalf of certain basic Islamic virtues and intentions, defence and expansion of Islam being one of them. It'S a variation of what the Nazigermans later made popular as the "Führerprinzip": accepting crime and suppression and remaining still loyal to the strong leader at the top as long as the perception is that he serves the inetrest of the nation'S grandness and glory (Nazis), or Islam'S grandness and glory (Islam).
The passivity and fatalism you see in much of the Muslim world, which led their cultural sphere to stagnation that lasted for many centuries, is linked to this. But it is a complex historical issue and difficult to elaborate in just some sentences. Fatalism towards the inner, aggression towards the outer side of Islamic society is one of the top characteristics by which to describe Muslim societies. All the en ergy that is not allowed to transform into for example a critical self-reflection or innovation and improvment, gets transformed into an aggressive energy directed at the outside, the other, the non-Muslim world. Stagnation in the inner, expansion towards the outer side of Islam.
Jimbuna
02-02-11, 04:00 PM
Mubaraks supporters are entering Cairo now, clashes taking place. Now things are going to get even more bloody.
Aye.....noticed the camel jockey faired better than the horsemen.
breadcatcher101
02-02-11, 04:49 PM
My aunt called first thing this morning, she was watching the action on TV.
She is very old, doesn't always get her words right, "They are all riding around on camels and throwing fruit cocktail at each other!"
We all know what she meant, bless her heart, but it made my day just picturing such a thing.
Armistead
02-02-11, 04:51 PM
since ages[/I] accept and tolerate strong tyrants at their top as long as these tyrants serve at least lip confessions and serve at least minimum contributions on behalf of certain basic Islamic virtues and intentions, defence and expansion of Islam being one of them. It'S a variation of what the Nazigermans later made popular as the "Führerprinzip": accepting crime and suppression and remaining still loyal to the strong leader at the top as long as the perception is that he serves the inetrest of the nation'S grandness and glory (Nazis), or Islam'S grandness and glory (Islam).
.
You list all the evils of Islam, Christianity has done as much or more to blacks, women, complete nations, really much more when you think of it. Almost every culture, tribe or nation "discovered by" Europe was converted with the bible and the sword, land stolen and forced religion, indians, blacks, women, ect...We gained most the power and resources in the world, so today that somehow makes us.... .civil.
Study some Mideast history. The majority of muslim lands were also colonialised and the people kept in the dark ages as far as progress as the powers that be exploited their resources. The ones that started fighting back usually were usually led by religious men.
Today the Christian white led Governments are the strongest in the world because they got there off the back on thousands of tribes, cultures or nations. We basically do the same today installing brutal dictators to do our will. Over the past 100 years different US and European powers installed dictators, instead of trying to do the right thing and promote freedom, many times we could've gone that route, but we wanted to control the oil.
Trust me, if you were on the same end, you would probably fight back to.
Until our self interest take a back seat to the self interest of the people actually on the land, it will continue.
Study some Mideast history. The majority of muslim lands were also colonialised and the people kept in the dark ages as far as progress as the powers that be exploited their resources. The ones that started fighting back usually were usually led by religious men.
.
Nowdays you have religious groups in Saudia and Kuwait who exploit their own resources.
They sit on their asses getting reach build some monuments and invest nothing in real industry and education inside their own coutures.
When oil runs out west will be to blame for their misery because some one has to be.
Iran while trying to be a self dependent country directs its resources to ME domination driven by Islamic ideology.
While Christianity and west may have some share in the blame the problem is more of cultural nature.
I ll go again with Iraq example.
US tried to install democracy in Iraq(never mind the reason...oil or just Bush's wet dream)it simply blew up in the face.
This you may consider west's experiment i creating D country instead of puppet dictatorship.
Things have taken a turn for the worse in Cairo:
http://www.smh.com.au/world/chaos-in-cairo-as-hundreds-hurt-in-violent-clashes-20110203-1ae6c.html
Castout
02-02-11, 05:49 PM
Labelling the Muslim brotherhood a moderate group dequalifies you for any further argument, Castout. Obviously you don'T know much about them.
Yes obviously I don't know anything about them which in itself speaks about the group. If they are as extreme as some people would have you believed why expose them only just NOW? Surely as an extremist group they would have already made several terrorist or jihadist attack that's worth the front page column of international media. The very fact that most people have no clue about them testifies about the group much.
About those explanation frankly I do not know what to believe or who to believe anymore. These days all kind of people with hidden agenda could come out with any 'fact' they would like. If the group is indeed an extremist group then why the fear of the group having the chance to wrestle their way to top power post Mubarak? I'd rather take a wait and see stance with this group than condemning them for something they haven't done or purported by some people with hidden agenda. I've seen enough to know for sure that some government could produce false facts and come out with made out analysis to suit their political agenda. It happens all the time. Many even don't receive wide covering of international media for a good reason.
Castout
02-02-11, 05:54 PM
Paid thugs and plain clothes police orchestrating as Mubarak supporter attacking protesters. 3 Died. NO WONDER why the people want him out! :damn:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110202/ap_on_re_mi_ea/ml_egypt
Skybird
02-02-11, 05:56 PM
You list all the evils of Islam, Christianity has done as much or more to blacks, women, complete nations,
It is a popular modern myth to think so, but it is not true. It has been counted out by historians, and in 2004 or 2005 the NYT had an article on it, Huntington counted on the issue as well, and since then I occassionally had more such statistics picked up at chance in German sources or books. Islam has waged more wars against Islamic factions than Christians have waged against Christian factions, and Islam has attacked in wars against other religions and cultures than Christian countries have attacked non-Christian countries/factions. The overall aggressiveness of Islam beats any religious compettion out there, including the Church.
Practically all of the Muslim countries existing today are the result of violent conquest and/or intimidation. The European Christian countries formed up as being "Christian" by a centuries-late arriving consequence of the Romans making it the official state religion, and people accepting the Christian religion becasue they found it convincing or desirable. Along the North African coast over the middle east to Asia, Islam spread by series of attacks, wars and conquests. Several high cultures were destroyed by them in the process, or brought close to the brink of destruction.
That'S why I describe Islam as the longest-lasting and most successful military conquest in all known history of mankind. It is also the longest lasting civil war in all known history of mankind.
Skybird
02-02-11, 06:05 PM
Yes obviously I don't know anything about them which in itself speaks about the group. If they are as extreme as some people would have you believed why expose them only just NOW? Surely as an extremist group they would have already made several terrorist or jihadist attack that's worth the front page column of international media. The very fact that most people have no clue about them testifies about the group much.
Hardly. You should not conclude from yourself on others and generalise that. YOU have no clue of them, you want to say. Actually the MB is closely engaged with terror organisations and in support of fundamentalist organsiation in all the world, and yes, it has blood on its hand's, directly and indirectly. And Egypt'S Anwar Al-Saddat - was assassinated by a suborganisation of the MB that was created as an offspring organisation of the MB.
You could as well say the Hitlerjugend was alliance of humanistic philantropists.
They enetred the demosntrations late, becasue the demos initially wshere about freedom and democracy. And ther MB has none of both in their agenda. They now act carefully becasue like Erdoghan in Turkey they are aware that they cannot be stopped if the raise their symoathy scores in the West by appearing to play by democratic rules. But they will stick to thes eonly as likng as they need then. Once they have arrived where the way to go, they will leave it behind.
If the group is indeed an extremist group then why the fear of the group having the chance to wrestle their way to top power post Mubarak?
You need to raise earlier in the mornings. Many young and burgeoise Egyptians in past days have said loud and clearly indeed they fear the MB more than anything else past Mubarak. So it is with many orientalists in the West. The MB is a kraken whith long arms throughout the world. Their influence may be hidden, but is enormous.
Tribesman
02-02-11, 06:20 PM
I ll go again with Iraq example.
US tried to install democracy in Iraq(never mind the reason...oil or just Bush's wet dream)it simply blew up in the face.
So thats an example of a country created by Britain with strange borders and huge seperatist groups ending up with a new parliament where the majority grouping won the election.
I am sure you must have had a point there when you thought of writing, but it appears lost.
Practically all of the Muslim countries existing today are the result of violent conquest and/or intimidation.
I could have sworn that nearly all the muslim countries existing today are the result of european cartographers:rotfl2:
The MB is a kraken whith long arms throughout the world. Their influence may be hidden, but is enormous.
Hold on, thats the EU isn't it...or was that last week
Jimbuna
02-02-11, 08:02 PM
LOL :DL
Castout
02-02-11, 08:03 PM
The several following days will be key to Egypt future.
The protesters should come to the streets in more numbers to overwhelm the pro Mubarak thugs and get rid of this Mubarak. The message Mubarak sending is clear it won't be a free and fair election or there will be one at all! I guess Mubarak is just being an ******* or rather being himself. The protesters should not lose their momentum while they still have the upper hand. Be angry be really angry! Mubarak is cornered and afraid he just needs a gentle shove and down he will and hard it will be. If he tried severe violence the man should be hunted by the new regime and declared human rights criminal and trialed.
I'd rather Egypt to have tried to be a democracy and failed and to try again than never trying at all.
Skybird
02-02-11, 08:20 PM
Last time the US let down a regime in the region and hoped for democracy, was 1979: Iran.
Platapus
02-02-11, 08:44 PM
So thats an example of a country created by Britain with strange borders and huge seperatist groups ending up with a new parliament where the majority grouping won the election.
I could have sworn that nearly all the muslim countries existing today are the result of european cartographers:rotfl2:
It does seem like if there is an messed up country at one point in its history was a British guy with a pencil and map. :D
Tribesman
02-02-11, 09:11 PM
It does seem like if there is an messed up country at one point in its history was a British guy with a pencil and map.
But its OK we will get a border commision to define satisfactory boundaries a soon as possible after the treaty is signed and will find a mutually agreed solution to those areas with a clear majority for independance which are currently disputed.:rotfl2:
Platapus
02-02-11, 09:15 PM
But its OK we will get a border commision to define satisfactory boundaries a soon as possible after the treaty is signed and will find a mutually agreed solution to those areas with a clear majority for independance which are currently disputed.:rotfl2:
Oh you are good. Very good. :yeah:
TLAM Strike
02-02-11, 09:34 PM
I could have sworn that nearly all the muslim countries existing today are the result of european cartographers:rotfl2:
Hay! That's not our fault! We asked them to draw their own borders and they drew a circle around the map!
:O:
Onkel Neal
02-03-11, 02:11 AM
First it was stones, then fists, now it's knives, next out come the guns. It's not a revolution, it's a large scale riot. Still, it's great to watch them bash each other for a change. And our elite news achors :D Dan Rather better get a move on or he'll miss out on the beat downs.
Castout
02-03-11, 02:57 AM
To Mubarak, other tyrants and aspiring tyrants, this song,
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TRtqH_QqhyM&feature=related
:DL
Castout
02-03-11, 07:02 PM
Journalists, bloggers and foreigners are now targeted by pro Mubarak gang.
Castout
02-03-11, 08:43 PM
Now I can't really see Mubarak stepping down without the protesters turning to violence.
And if the protesters are defeated by Mubarak intimidation Egypt will not turn into anything democratic as the man will think that it was himself that squashed the movement and blamed external parties to the event.
What we are seeing now is the ego of a single man standing against the will of the majority of the people of the nation. Mubarak is certainly drunk with power after all. What kind of credibility that Mubarak thinks he would yield even if he successfully restores Egypt to 'order' by sheer intimidation? The man has antagonized not only his own people but the international media as well. Madness. This is madness. Not surprising at all but still disgusting when you see it all in events which have been unfolding.
Much depends on the military now more than before.
Now I can't really see Mubarak stepping down without the protesters turning to violence.
And if the protesters are defeated by Mubarak intimidation Egypt will not turn into anything democratic as the man will think himself that squashed the movement.
What we are seeing now is the ego of a single man standing against the will of the majority of the people of the nation. Mubarak is certainly drunk with power after all. What kind of credibility that Mubarak thinks he would yield even if he successfully restores Egypt to 'order' by sheer intimidation?
Much depends on the military now more than before.
So you see no value in all in trying to ensure a smooth transition of power? September elections do give candidates time to build a voting constituency. What kind of choices are people going to make that have only had days to consider who they will vote for?
Personally I'd think you'd want to avoid the sectarian violence that is caused by a power vacuum until a truly democratic government has a chance to form.
Castout
02-03-11, 09:59 PM
So you see no value in all in trying to ensure a smooth transition of power? September elections do give candidates time to build a voting constituency. What kind of choices are people going to make that have only had days to consider who they will vote for?
Personally I'd think you'd want to avoid the sectarian violence that is caused by a power vacuum until a truly democratic government has a chance to form.
Who said anything about days to vote? or even power vacuum?!
All the protesters want is for Mubarak to step down.
Who said anything about days to vote? or even power vacuum?!
All the protesters want is for Mubarak to step down.
Yeah and what then? You think Mubaraks departure will suddenly smooth everything over? Somebody is going to step into that power vacuum.
Castout
02-04-11, 01:11 AM
Somebody is going to step into that power vacuum.
OF COURSE. You haven't been reading have you. :doh:. Like I wrote who said anything about vacuum? It's either you don't understand the situation or just being ignorant or pretending not to understand. look at Tunisia, look at Indonesia when Soeharto stepped down! A nation never revolve around any single man. That's a pathetic excuse.
IF many protesters die in that square I'm going to shout FAIL to every nation that claims to honor human rights and democracy and United Nation should have their human rights charter revoked for giving false hope to mankind because unless honored, enforced and supported whatever man made charter would be fictitious.
Skybird
02-04-11, 07:23 AM
Got a phone call early this morning. It was the brother the Egyptian fella I told you of. He said he had been injured during the battle on the plaza, a stone to the head, and later more kicks to the head at an imporvised street hospital. Nothing life-threatening, but he is taken out of action for the forseeable future. He said that the clashes with the pro Mubarak thugs on the scene in parts looked like civil war. They now called to let me know, and now to warn me to take them by their word and travel down there.
Well, I did not seriously consider that anyway, I was just joking, as you already might have guessed.
When he was calling me two days ago, they did not expect, nobody in their family did, that it would escalate to such degrees of violence.
For two days I believed them, and thoight it was over indeed. Serves me right to let myself carry away by just some enthusiastic temper. Should have maintained my usual analytical and stoic stance.
Tribesman
02-04-11, 07:33 AM
Yeah and what then? You think Mubaraks departure will suddenly smooth everything over? Somebody is going to step into that power vacuum.
And what then?
Well you could have an interim government, a provisional government, a government of national unity...in fact any of the many forms which are used quite often in such situations to prevent that power vacuum
It's either you don't understand the situation or just being ignorant or pretending not to understand.
I don't think he is pretending:yeah:
FROM HA'ARETZ
Published 11:46 04.02.11
Latest update 11:46 04.02.11
Iran Supreme Leader: Egypt unrest inspired by our Islamic Revolution
Speaking before worshipers during weekly prayers in Tehran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei says success of Mideast revolutions could signal an ' irreparable defeat' for the U.S.
By Reuters and Haaretz Service Tags: Israel news (http://www.haaretz.com/meta/Tag/Israel%20news) Iran (http://www.haaretz.com/meta/Tag/Iran) Egypt protest (http://www.haaretz.com/meta/Tag/Egypt%20protest)
Uprisings in Egypt and Tunisia will spell an "irreparable defeat" for the United States, Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said on Friday, adding that the recent wave of unrest sweeping through the Mideast was a result of Iran's Islamic Revolution.
http://www.haaretz.com/polopoly_fs/1.337119.1295079390!/image/3449793502.jpg_gen/derivatives/landscape_295/3449793502.jpg Ayatollah Ali Khamenei waving to a crowd in the Iranian city of Qom, Oct. 19, 2010.
Photo by: AP Throngs of Egyptians took to the streets in recent days in the largest anti-government protest movement to sweep the country in the last quarter-century. Demonstrators are calling for the ouster of Hosni Mubarak, who has served as president of Egypt for over 29 years.
Speaking with worshippers during Friday prayers in Tehran, Khamenei said that "if they [protesters] are able to push this through then what will happen to the U.S. policies in the region will be an irreparable defeat for America."
"Today’s events in North of Africa, Egypt, Tunisia and certain other countries have another sense for the Iranian nation. They have special meaning. This is the same as 'Islamic awakening,' which is the result of the victory of the big revolution of the Iranian nation,” the Supreme Leader was quoted by the official IRNA news agency as saying.
The comment by Iran's Supreme Leader wasn't the first time Iran had equated the current run of Egypt protests with the battle against U.S. influence in the region, with Tehran's Foreign Ministry saying on Thursday that Egypt protests would lead to the emergence of "a real independent Islamic Middle East."
"Iran supports the rightful demands of the Egyptian people and emphasizes they should be met," the official Irna news agency quoted a statement as saying.
The Iranian Foreign Ministry statement called upon people and governments around the world to strongly condemn what it said were Israeli and American "interferences aimed at diverting Egyptians' justice-seeking movement, by creating counter-revolt and using rioters."
"Iran also warns that any opposition to the movement of the Egyptian people ... will bring about the anger and hatred of all Muslims around the world," the statement said.
Israel expressed fears earlier this week that protests in Egypt could put a radical Islamist regime like Iran's in power, jeopardizing Egypt's peace treaty with Israel.
"Our real fear is of a situation that could develop ... and which has already developed in several countries including Iran itself -- repressive regimes of radical Islam," said Netanyahu.
Netanyahu continued, adding that although the protests may not be motivated by religious extremism, "in a situation of chaos, an organized Islamist body can seize control of a country. It happened in Iran. It happened in other instances."
Iran is the only country in the region without full diplomatic ties with Egypt and analysts say Tehran hopes the fall of the Egyptian government could boost its influence.
Skybird
02-04-11, 07:46 AM
'Iranians' voice echoed in Muslim world' (http://www.presstv.ir/detail/163526.html)
“This is what was always referred to as the Islamic awakening created by the victory of the great revolution of the Iranian nation,” Ayatollah Khamenei said in his comments during the Friday prayer sermons in Tehran.
There is a point. In the years since Napoleon and the French expedition corps arrived in Egypt, the Islamic world reacted weak last but not least due to it'S lacking unity and internal conflicts. If ,gobal Islam grows in unity and cooperation, then it also grows in power. And then this ideology could quickly become an even greater problem for all the world than it already is.
Tribesman
02-04-11, 07:51 AM
Has anyone told the ayatollah that egypt is sunni and sunni fanatics consider the iranian revolutionaries to be godless heretical blasphemers ?
Has anyone told the ayatollah that egypt is sunni and sunni fanatics consider the iranian revolutionaries to be godless heretical blasphemers ?
Does any one need to....?
Thats not the issue is it?
Tribesman
02-04-11, 08:07 AM
Thats not the issue is it?
The issue is in relation to the Iranian revolution.
1 what caused it.
2 what subsequent actions led to the loonies taking over the popular uprising.
With the first its the same, the second is what matters and the west is looking likely to follow the same path again while spouting the same nonsense again
With the first its the same, the second is what matters and the west is looking likely to follow the same path again while spouting the same nonsense again
Why?The west it seems took a quite opossite path this time.
Israelis are hoping for the best while prepering for the worst.
Tribesman
02-04-11, 08:40 AM
Why?The west it seems took a quite opossite path this time.
Really? and what path is that they are following?
They appear completely lost as usual.
Israelis are hoping for the best while prepering for the worst.
And what is the best?
Have you heard the latest about the anti government protesters really being Israeli agents and the western media covering it are part of a zionist plot?:o
Really? and what path is that they are following?
They appear completely lost as usual.
No...just trying to eat the cake and leave it whole....typical.
Israel has experience in that type of international politics.
:DLDid not i tell you they just should keep sending rice to Africa.:DL
And what is the best?
Have you heard the latest about the anti government protesters really being Israeli agents and the western media covering it are part of a zionist plot?:o
I havent( guess dont read this media)but thats typical and not really surprising.
Been used before.
Israeli Egyptian relations were always very colorful.
If Egypt becomes a democracy relations may become even more colorful but in a long run it just hopefully (wishful thinking here)would be better than islamic nuts regime.
Tribesman
02-04-11, 09:58 AM
I havent( guess dont read this media)but thats typical and not really surprising.
What were you saying recently about getting views only from a left leaning Israeli media source?:hmmm:
Its basicly about the govt. text messages the phone networks had to send and the dictators party on its State run TV station.
If Egypt becomes a democracy relations may become even more colorful but in a long run it just hopefully (wishful thinking here)would be better than islamic nuts regime.
Keep with the program, there are only two options apparently. Keep the current pattern of dictatorship or surrender to a global caliphate where all the hundreds of factions have got over their centuries old conflicts and united under one supreme leader.:yeah:
Damn, I should be writing for Glenn Beck as thats as good as his recent Archie Duke moment where "riots in Ireland are part of the global islamic tide":rotfl2:
Skybird
02-04-11, 05:26 PM
Very good German comment (http://www.welt.de/debatte/kommentare/article12449750/Auf-Demokratiehoffnung-kann-auch-Apokalypse-folgen.html), reminding of that it is uncertain and even unlikely that any Western understanding of "law and order" and democracy will follow Mubarak, that there is a huge rift in the military between profiteers of the old order, and young recruits more sympothising with the protesters, that it is blue-eyed to simply take that as granted as many Wetsern politicians imply in their statement, and nthat we should be self-critical in our understanding of the the complexity of Egyptian rwlaies when our intel services have so miserbaly failed in giving us warning time sand early alarms that somethign was in the making in Tunisia and Egypt. We have been surprised and totally overrolled by events, with our pants down, haven't we...!? So what do we think we can claim to know about how it will move on...? The opinion editorial also again reminds of the fact that more than half of the Egyptian population would have no problem to live under the regime of fully implemented Shariah law- while I remind again that the last poll being done just before the unrest broke out showed that the Muslim Brotherhood and fundamentalists would win the most votes.
The Iranians are pretty funny. They can salute civil unrest, even as their own government of islamists brutally represses the same kinds of demonstrations at home.
The danger in Egypt is the Muslim Brotherhood. They have a decent voting block, and a "democracy" with them as the winners would be a one man, one vote, once, scenario.
I hope for the sake of the people of Egypt that the military organizes a transition to elections in such a way to maintain a more secular state.
OF COURSE. You haven't been reading have you. :doh:. Like I wrote who said anything about vacuum? It's either you don't understand the situation or just being ignorant or pretending not to understand. look at Tunisia, look at Indonesia when Soeharto stepped down! A nation never revolve around any single man. That's a pathetic excuse.
Don't take that insulting tone with me Pal.
If you really think that Mubaraks departure alone is going to quell the situation then you actually do believe that a nation revolves around a single man, and are far more ignorant or pretending than you so rudely accuse me of being.
I don't care if they hang Murbarak from a lamp post Mussolini style.
Fair elections take time to set up. Interim governments are very fragile things. There are major factions going to be vying for power. Like Tater correctly points out the last thing anyone wants is a new democracy that doesn't survive it's first elections.
A real democracy there would be a welcome change. Not one like Iran, however, where the one "democratically elected" (LOL) regime is replaced with another elected for life—only the new one is far more brutal, and the next protests meet the same end as Iranian protests.
Tribesman
02-04-11, 07:00 PM
The Iranians are pretty funny. They can salute civil unrest, even as their own government of islamists brutally represses the same kinds of demonstrations at home.
Indeed, they are pretty funny.
So do you think they are funnier than the governments that talk about freedom and democracy yet install and support crazy murdering dictatorships or are they equally as funny or not as funny?
Indeed, they are pretty funny.
So do you think they are funnier than the governments that talk about freedom and democracy yet install and support crazy murdering dictatorships or are they equally as funny or not as funny?
Not odd in the least. Supporting some SOB in some other country is just geopolitics ("he may be an SOB, but at least he's our SOB" has been a standard for great powers as long as they have existed).
And besides, it's not the same at all. We (the US in particular, and the West in general) supported the CCCP vs Hitler, for example, and Stalin was worse (measured by body count). It was a pragmatic decision.
Still, in the case of Iran, they are supportive of demonstrations functionally identical to what they are doing AT HOME. To their own people.
The analogy to the US (the country you love to hate) would have to be the US being in favor of demonstrations, while we brutally suppress those AT HOME. What we support elsewhere doesn't matter. The analogy here was what they do to their own people, and that is what makes it a "funny" thing.
BTW, the US supports *******s like Mubarak often because there are few or no alternatives. Support a dictator... what if the alternative is an Islamist government? We have an SOB who will rough up Islamists on the one hand, or Islamists who will murder women for crimes against chastity, or murder boys for being gay, etc... I'll take the roughed up Islamists, thank you.
Tribesman
02-04-11, 07:38 PM
Not odd in the least. Supporting some SOB in some other country is just geopolitics
So its perfectly OK for Iran to fund hezballah then and to install their friends in Iraq, after all its just geo politics.
Still, in the case of Iran, they are supportive of demonstrations functionally identical to what they are doing AT HOME. To their own people.
I do wish people would make their mind up.
Which is it Tater, a happy demonstration like they had in Iran or an evil demonstration like they had in Iran?
(the country you love to hate)
Pathetic, really pathetic.
BTW, the US supports *******s like Mubarak often because there are few or no alternatives. Support a dictator... what if the alternative is an Islamist government?
And once again your mind draws a blank, it is your very support for dictatorships that builds the islamic nuts to such a scale.
Not odd in the least. Supporting some SOB in some other country is just geopolitics ("he may be an SOB, but at least he's our SOB" has been a standard for great powers as long as they have existed).
Then there is the fact that we did not install Mubarak to power. We toss him some carrots from time to time in return for his cooperation on certain matters. That doesn't make him "ours" though.
Tribesman, in his usual eagerness to badmouth our country, would have us believing that's the same thing as arming an insurgent group in order to start a civil war. Now that truly is pathetic.
Tribesman
02-04-11, 09:42 PM
August is being a troll again.:har:
Isn't it amazing how August makes a point of using the ignore function then doesn't ignore. kinda lame isn't it
Tribesman, in his usual eagerness to badmouth our country, would have us believing that's the same thing as arming an insurgent group in order to start a civil war. Now that truly is pathetic.
What is pathetic is Augusts obvious lack of knowledge.:doh:
Nice attempt at a strawman though:up:
We toss him some carrots from time to time in return for his cooperation on certain matters.
I bet thats what dinnerjacket says about Al-Sadr:rotfl2:
You have to realize that social economical situation will not change in Egypt for a long time after election.
Egypt has too many problems to solve.
People will continue to live in poverty for long time to go while MB will grow in power if they will not be out lawed any more.
Eventually if not now they will grab power and they know it.
When they do you can kiss goodbye freedom and liberty bye bye....
Aramike
02-05-11, 04:13 AM
I'm just curious - when did it become wrong to act in your nation's self-interest?
Or it just wrong when your nation is the United States of America?
In any case, the problem in this particular situation is the concept that "the devil you know is better than the devil you don't". What is in the best interest of the US isn't very clear at this point. We do know that an Egyptian civil war would be disasterous. We also know that another fundamentalist Muslim nation would be counter-productive.
Part of the problem is that the world has come to worship the term "Democracy" without truly understanding its implications. Majority rule, in principle, seems great - that is, until the majority rules that those who disagree should be killed.
Democracy of any kind only works when there's a just constitution limiting it's exercise. Ergo, supporting a nation merely because it takes democratic steps in changing rulership is foolhearty. Democracy, in and of itself, is useless. I, for one, do not support nations merely because they are democratic states. I simply don't care what the majority if YOUR country thinks should it be opposed to the advancement of my own.
What should be cherished on the other hand is democratic rule rooted in the concept of freedom. There lies the issue with Egypt - it's not whether or now Mubarak is deposed, its what will occur to replace him.
Sounds like Jordan is on a similar trajectory:
http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-world/jordan-king-fires-govt-islamists-slam-new-pm-20110202-1acm2.html
Tribesman
02-05-11, 04:45 AM
I'm just curious - when did it become wrong to act in your nation's self-interest?
Or it just wrong when your nation is the United States of America?
Is it just that some people think its wrong only when anyone apart from the US does it?
Isn't it amazing that peole can criticise Italian, French, Chinese policies or the policies of any one of a hundred other countries because those policies suck and its all fine and dandy....but criticise some US policies that stink and you get some Americans jumping up spouting typical "you hate America" nonsense.
Though August managed to bring a whole new level of threat to geo politics, forget Irans nuclear program...the crazy mullahs have got a time machine.:har:
When they do you can kiss goodbye freedom and liberty bye bye....
Are you talking about the country which the US State dept. says lacks freedom and liberty? Is it the country with arbitary arrest detention without trial? the police state where government forces murder with impunity?
Wouldn't it be rather hard to kiss goodbye to something which doesn't exist?
WOW Tribesman i really admire your faith.
Its almost religious.
Ha'aretz report
Future seems bright......freedom at last
Published 09:33 05.02.11
Latest update 09:33 05.02.11
Saboteurs blow up Egypt gas pipeline in Sinai cutting flow to Israel
After explosion Egypt authorities turn off gas flow through the pipeline which supplies Israel with over 40 percent of its natural gas.
By Avi Issacharoff (http://www.haaretz.com/misc/writers/avi-issacharoff-1.307), Barak Ravid (http://www.haaretz.com/misc/writers/barak-ravid-1.325) and Reuters Tags: Israel news (http://www.haaretz.com/meta/Tag/Israel%20news) Egypt protests (http://www.haaretz.com/meta/Tag/Egypt%20protests) Sinai (http://www.haaretz.com/meta/Tag/Sinai)
Saboteurs blew up a pipeline that runs through Egypt's North Sinai, state television said, disrupting flows to Israel, after Islamist groups called on militants to exploit the unrest that has rocked the government.
State television quoted an official on Saturday as saying that the "situation is very dangerous and explosions were continuing from one spot to another" along the pipeline.
http://www.haaretz.com/polopoly_fs/1.341369.1296891557!/image/2512696739.jpg_gen/derivatives/landscape_295/2512696739.jpg n Egyptian soldier stands guard on a watch tower on the border between Israel and Egypt, some 30 km (19 miles) north of Eilat.
Photo by: Reuters
"It is a big terrorist operation", a state TV reporter said.
A security source in North Sinai said "foreign elements" targeted the branch of the pipe that supplies Jordan.
A security source said the Egyptian army closed the main source of gas supplying the pipeline and were trying to control the fires. Television footage on Al Jazeera and Al Arabiya showed a tower of flames at the scene of the blast.
Israel Radio said, quoting sources in the consortium overseeing imports, the blast did not target supplies to Israel but they had been halted as a precaution.
"We are looking into all the details but it is too soon to say how long supplies (from Egypt) will be affected," a source in the Israeli National Infrastructure Ministry told Reuters.
Israel gets 40 percent of its natural gas from Egypt, a deal built on their landmark 1979 peace accord.
The attack happened as demonstrations against President Hosni Mubarak entered their 12th day, with no sign of an end to the confrontation which has pitted the 82-year-old leader
against thousands of anti-government protesters.
"Saboteurs took advantage of the security situation and blew up the gas pipeline," a state television correspondent said.
The SITE intelligence group, which monitors al-Qaida and other Islamist websites, said some groups had been urging Islamic militants to attack the pipeline to Israel.
"Jihadists suggested that Muslims in Sinai take advantage of Egyptian unrest and strike the Arish-Ashkelon gas pipeline, arguing that it would have a major impact on Israel," SITE said.
Egypt is a modest gas exporter, using pipelines to export to Israel, Jordan and other regional states. It also exports via liquefied natural gas (LNG) facilities on its north coast, but
those are not in the Sinai region
The North Sinai source said the attack was carried out by "foreign elements".
"We are now relying on Bedouin leadership in the areas surrounding to help security apparatus with the investigation and give us hints of any other destructive acts," he said. "As
soon as the gas lines are attacked, the system suspends the flow immediately."
Egypt declared a high state of alert in the area, according to another security source. Gunmen opened fire on a local governorate building in North Sinai but no casualties were
reported, the source said.
Abdel Wahhab Mabrouk, the governor of North Sinai, told state television: "By closing the taps they contained the fire and we assure the people there are no human losses. It is an act
of sabotage."
Residents in the area reported a huge explosion and said flames were raging in an area near the pipeline in the El-Arish area of north Sinai.
SITE quoted one Islamist website author as saying: "To our brothers, the Bedouins of Sinai, the heroes of Islam, strike with an iron fist, because this is a chance to stop the supply
to the Israelites."
Sinai Bedouins have long grumbled about being neglected and have often sporadically clashed with Egyptian security forces. Many Bedouin were rounded up after a series of explosions in Sinai tourist resorts between 2004 and 2006.
The Israeli Energy Ministry said its Yam Tetis gas field was under orders to "respond accordingly" after gas supplies from Egypt were stopped as a precaution because of an explosion.
Israel's National Infrastructure Ministry's spokeswoman said disruptions to Israel's electricity production were not expected.
Published 10:27 05.02.11
Latest update 10:27 05.02.11
Report: Egypt vice president survives assassination attempt
Armed assassins targeted Omar Suleiman's convoy killing two of his bodyguards, Fox News reports.
By Avi Issacharoff (http://www.haaretz.com/misc/writers/avi-issacharoff-1.307) and News Agencies Tags: Israel news (http://www.haaretz.com/meta/Tag/Israel%20news) Egypt protests (http://www.haaretz.com/meta/Tag/Egypt%20protests) Hosni Mubarak (http://www.haaretz.com/meta/Tag/Hosni%20Mubarak)
Fox News reported on Saturday that recently appointed Egyptian Vice President Omar Suleiman has survived an attempted assassination.
According to the report, armed assassins targeted the convoy in which Suleiman was travelling, killing two of his bodyguards.
http://www.haaretz.com/polopoly_fs/1.339963.1296316064!/image/1595355161.jpg_gen/derivatives/landscape_295/1595355161.jpg Newly sworn-in Egyptian Vice-President and Former Head of Egyptian Intelligence Omar Suleiman.
Photo by: AP
Fox News reported that the U.S. confirmed the reports of the failed assassination attempt, however White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs declined to address the reports.
"I'm not going to... get into that question," Gibbs told Fox News.
The attempted assassination has not been confirmed by Egypt, Fox reported.
Embattled Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak appointed on Saturday last week the former air force commander and aviation minister in efforts to stem popular rage against his autocratic regime.
Suleiman is the first vice-president of Egypt to be appointed since Mubarak first took power almost thirty years ago. Mubarak himself occupied the position of vice-president under the former Egyptian president Anwar Sadat, and took the reigns of power after Sadat was assassinated in 1981.
On Monday Suleiman said that Mubarak told him to start a dialogue with all the political parties as hundreds of thousands continued to protest.
Aramike
02-05-11, 06:09 AM
Is it just that some people think its wrong only when anyone apart from the US does it?Perhaps they do, but ... so what? In a world of finite resources, competition and, ultimately, self-interest governs all. There's a stark difference between sacrifice for a general ideology and sacrifice for another's advancement outside of such. In the end, we all promote a cause - it only makes sense that said endeavors benefit ourselves collectively. Ergo, nationalistic aspirations dominate.
Now, that certainly does not preclude other nations from saying their piece, but again, so? Unless you have the economic and military power to impose adversariel views, your opinions exist at the leisure of those stronger.
Like it or not, the world is governed by those strong enough to impose their will, the hope being that only just policies can attain such strength (fallacy).Isn't it amazing that peole can criticise Italian, French, Chinese policies or the policies of any one of a hundred other countries because those policies suck and its all fine and dandy....but criticise some US policies that stink and you get some Americans jumping up spouting typical "you hate America" nonsense.I'm sorry, but how is that "nonsense"? There's a reason why Italian, French, and Chinese policies are footnotes compared to US policies (I will explain it if asked as that is what I do for a living, and yes, even China with all it's economic might exists merely as a product of American consumerism and buying power).
Bottom line? You hate America. Along with the Chinese, and many European nations. Which is fine and understandable - US economic prevailance can threaten culture. Yet, when consumerism and economic dominance is the US culture, the argument of culture becomes subjective with one siding on that position which emotionally resonates rather than objectively dominates.
PS: Whether or not US conservatives like it, liberal policies have given the US a position of strength that is only now being realized. Though August managed to bring a whole new level of threat to geo politics, forget Irans nuclear program...the crazy mullahs have got a time machine.:har:
Honestly, I don't think you grasped August's point because it didn't fit within the framework of what you are trying to base your argument on. You tend to do that a lot, actually, and when doing so you attempt to punctuate your points in manners that seem to overtly try to belittle those opposed to your opinion.
In the end, when the rest of everyone seems to get the other guy's point while you're "emoticoning" yourself to a self-perceived "victory", most people are kind of laughing at how the other point sailed so far over your head that it became comical. In the meantime, the rest of everyone simply gets annoyed at the arrogance and condescension.
Perhaps you should try to simply make your arguments and let them stand for themseves, rather than seemingly relying on "smilies" to punctuate them (I mean, really?). I can tell you're a smart guy on the periphery and you may even be entertaining to debate against (as such, I no longer have you on my ignore list), but you don't seem to get that there are other sides, one may be wrong, the wrong one may be yours, and deducing which is wrong involves intellectualism far more than a laughing yellow graphic.
An example - Sailor Steve and I have gone head-to-head on plenty of issues, and while we agree on some things, we disagree on plenty of others. We cannot see one-another's points as clearly as we'd like to, because in our minds, we can't fathom how the other could miss our points.
And while that may NEVER be resolved, I respect the guy incredibly and I suspect he respects me at least somewhat as it's never gotten deeply personal. In fact, when it seemed like it did, it has been my fault and I apologized for it, and we moved on.
Dude, build relationships - unless you think you're perfect and never err, and therefore all the laughter we throw your way much be misguided. In which case, its even funnier (and sadder) than before.
Castout
02-05-11, 06:16 AM
The Iranians are pretty funny. They can salute civil unrest, even as their own government of islamists brutally represses the same kinds of demonstrations at home.
The danger in Egypt is the Muslim Brotherhood. They have a decent voting block, and a "democracy" with them as the winners would be a one man, one vote, once, scenario.
I hope for the sake of the people of Egypt that the military organizes a transition to elections in such a way to maintain a more secular state.
The Iranians are great it's the government which sucks. And if their government is saluting the Egyptian protesters they do that for the sake of politicking. In their view anything or anybody who's friendly to United States and Israel deserve condemning at the end of the day.
To be honest I have no objection to an authoritarian rule. Not at all BUT it must have a legitimate foundation. You cannot expect a president of a Republic to behave the same way as an autocratic Sultan or King! even monarchies nowadays become a constitutional one.
A king or a Sultan deserves the respect of a king and a Sultan. A president deserves the respect of a president and etc.
It's when a republic head of state or head government behaving like an absolute king without regard to constitution and law then you have nothing less than privileged thug and criminal. Fundamentally a traitor to his people and his nation.
If men much less their leaders cannot abide by the rules agreed upon together or abused them for personal gain then such leader is unfit to rule anything but the jungle and the animal kingdom and deserves no respect UNLESS one accepts that the idea of rule of law, universal rights, and constitution as fiction. BUT if you accepted them as fiction that would make nations fictitious too and hence the foundation of authority upon which these leaders claimed to have borne.
So you see not only dictatorship is an unsustainable form of governing but unjustifiable logically as well. The very idea of dictatorship is self defeating and the only reason to its existence is to satisfy man's lust for power and his ego CONTRARY to the essence of true leadership which is to give service to men.
[Funny thing when i wrote "Fundamentally a traitor to his people and his nation..." and posted them, they appeared after "The Iranians are great it's the government which sucks. And if their government is saluting the Egyptian protesters they do that for the sake of politicking. In their view anything or anybody who's friendly to United States and Israel deserve condemning at the end of the day." as if I was condemning the Iraniangovt, I must check my posts from now on]
Aramike
02-05-11, 06:29 AM
Are you talking about the country which the US State dept. says lacks freedom and liberty? Say he was ... so?
Your reliance upon the assumed argument of "US, bad" seems clear here. Yet it remains impotent.Is it the country with arbitary arrest detention without trial?Wait - since when was it a human universal virtue that "trial" resolves innocence or guilt? And, your "arbitrary" comment must merely be an attempt at inciting opposition because it makes no sense ... unless you have no clue what "arbitrary" means, which would be no shock considering you have no idea what "context" means within its LIMITED scope to change the meaning of the actual words formulated. Again, are concepts foreign to the pont you're attempting to make THAT far beyond your comprehension?the police state where government forces murder with impunity?Please, justify the police state I live in. This will likely be quite humorous.
My goodness, thank you, for bringing to light the rampant state-sponsored murder than occurs right under my own nose. People are disappearing constantly!Wouldn't it be rather hard to kiss goodbye to something which doesn't exist? Not really, especially when it comes to the rantings of a blind ideologue who's positions have become not much more than a laughingstock of how many "emoticons" he can try to win his arguments by. It must be tough to actually use words and phrases, and, God forbid, sentences, and, holy crap, CONCEPTS...
Skybird
02-05-11, 06:55 AM
Just some reminders.
Socialists and communists in Iran thought they could cooperate with Khomeini after the Shah was chased away. Almost all of these socialists and communists ended up hanging from light masts and telephone poles once Khomeini had secured his power - with the crowds cheering. Since then, democracy in Iran has formed up one split-tongued and autocratic caricature of a Democratic regime after the other.
It were Democratic elections that brought the fundamentalist AKP to power in Turkey. Since then it systematically erodes the secular design of the Kemalistic order, reinstalls patriarchal personnel and leadership structures in public services,eliminates the military and the constitutional court as guardians of the secular order, and has caused and supported a massive move towards a more fundamentalist revival of Islam, leas ding the country towards old Osman dreams of imperial grandness, and saw it lining up with countries like Iran and Syria.
It were democratic elections that maintained the anything but Democratic regime in Algeria until today.
It were democratic elections that brought Hamas to power in the Gaza strip.
In the light of this, now consider that in Egypt, a majority of people would accept and even welcome to live under a regime basing on Sharia law. Polls before the unrest broke out found a majority for fundamentalist parties and the Muslim brotherhood. How great is the probability that there will come a really Democratic order in Egypt that lives for longer than just the next one or two legislation periods?
Not very great, I would say. Because I see not a single argument or fact indicating the opposite.
Tribesman
02-05-11, 07:02 AM
Perhaps they do, but ... so what?
A word beginning with H, plus of course the blatantness of it makes all that they say very tarnished and devalued which is a bit of a bugger when you want to convince people that what you are saying is not just hypocritical bull.
That of course leads onto the fact that such hypocrisy is in the medium-long term very bad for the prospects of the nation.
Now, that certainly does not preclude other nations from saying their piece, but again, so? Unless you have the economic and military power to impose adversariel views, your opinions exist at the leisure of those stronger.
So you justify terrorism, after all flying planes into downtown NY is just using a different form of economic and military power.
I'm sorry, but how is that "nonsense"?
Because it pure bull spouted by people whose counter arguement makes no sense at all.
If I was to say that Chinas policies in Southern Sudan
are very bad and seem to make no sense either on their stated goals or their long term interests and someone posted "you hate china" any sensible person would view that poster as mentally challenged.
Yet several posters regularly make that same mentally challenged response because they simply cannot get their heads round issues due to blindness from nationalism.
Honestly, I don't think you grasped August's point because it didn't fit within the framework of what you are trying to base your argument on.
August said they funded a group to start a civil war, that civil war was long running before that group was started.
Augusts "point" was to try and twist the arguement into something else, in doing so he not only showed the weakness of his initial position he actually made it even worse than it was which is one hell of an achievement.
Perhaps you should try to simply make your arguments and let them stand for themseves
They do.
In this case a simple pattern.
(1)X is bad
(2)yes X is bad
(1)this shows how bad those people are as they do X
(2)hold on your people do X too
(1)X is only bad if somone else does it
(2)that makes no sense, X is bad or it isn't
(1)you just hate us
(2)your arguement make no sense:har::har::har::har:
Please, justify the police state I live in.
Reading problems again?
Perhaps you just don't understand your government and its works
A word beginning with H, plus of course the blatantness of it makes all that they say very tarnished and devalued which is a bit of a bugger when you want to convince people that what you are saying is not just hypocritical bull.
Try to convince then instead of using stupid remarks.
A little change of attitude not necessarily will convince anyone but maybe can make one consider your opinion.
So you justify terrorism, after all flying planes into downtown NY is just using a different form of economic and military power.
It is different form of economic and military power.
It dosnt mean it needs to be justified.
Because it pure bull spouted by people whose counter arguement makes no sense at all.......Bla Blah
Your argument make no sense at all because they are just empty remarks.
If you have somthing to say but can't bother to explain so why you bother at all.
Remember that your opinion is just an opinion.
:hmmm:The TRUTH is out there.....:ping:
Tribesman
02-05-11, 08:31 AM
Try to convince then instead of using stupid remarks.
Excuse me, wasn't you just recently condemning anything you didn't agree with as anti-Israeli and demonstrating that you knew bugger all about the countries own government and military publications on the topics?
wouldn't that mean your blind nationalism is the same as those who shout "anti american" when they get stuck
If you have somthing to say but can't bother to explain so why you bother at all.
All the information needed is there, you just have to look and think.
It is different form of economic and military power.
It dosnt mean it needs to be justified.
goose and gander
Your argument make no sense at all because they are just empty remarks.
If you have somthing to say but can't bother to explain so why you bother at all.
Just because you don't understand them it doesn't mean they make no sense or are empty, some things explain themself if you just look and think. Nationalism tends to get in the way of that thinking which is what causes the blindness where people look, don't think and react with plain nonsense.
Look at the 3 words above this last quote, simple, self explanitary, makes a lot of sense....do you understand them?
Excuse me, wasn't you just recently condemning anything you didn't agree with as anti-Israeli and demonstrating that you knew bugger all about the countries own government and military publications on the topics?
?
If you tried to explain your self instead of claiming things maybe i wouldn't.
wouldn't that mean your blind nationalism is the same as those who shout "anti american" when they get stuck
?
Israeli==nationalism.
Again one of your baseless stereotype assumptions but yes i love my country and i want the best future for it.
Since when being a patriot is a bad thing.
All the information needed is there, you just have to look and think.
?
I consider my self not a stupid person but your info doesn't help me a lot.
Just because you don't understand them it doesn't mean they make no sense or are empty, some things explain themself if you just look and think.
?
LoL we are even then but next time throw a bone.
Have fun
Back to topic.
Honestly, I don't think you grasped August's point because it didn't fit within the framework of what you are trying to base your argument on.
Oh he grasped it alright, and his obtuseness is deliberate.
You tend to do that a lot, actually, and when doing so you attempt to punctuate your points in manners that seem to overtly try to belittle those opposed to your opinion.
Yep and it's no wonder why he spends so much time in the Brig. I figure eventually Neal will become sick and tired of it and he'll keelhaul him and that will be the end of our Irish troll.
So its perfectly OK for Iran to fund hezballah then and to install their friends in Iraq, after all its just geo politics.
Yeah, and it's fine for us to bomb them (or pay someone else to). That said, unlike Iran and their minions in Lebanon, we don't intentionally murder civilians. They do. Eye on the ball.
I do wish people would make their mind up.
Which is it Tater, a happy demonstration like they had in Iran or an evil demonstration like they had in Iran?
The recent Iranian demonstrations were fine. The problem with the demonstrations vs the Shah was that he was a counter to the CCCP for us. The CCCP murdered over 50 million human beings. Being allied with the Shah was like being allied with Stalin—only the Shah was a pussycat by comparison. So the balance of good/evil here is mistreatment of a small number of people vs mistreatment of a huge number of people. Even so, we supported the demonstrations vs the Shah officially (it was Carter's support that paved the way for the current Iran... he's sort of the father of their country! Yeah for him!).
And once again your mind draws a blank, it is your very support for dictatorships that builds the islamic nuts to such a scale.
No, Islam causes islamic nuts. The problem is the set of ideas that includes this insanity. It's not more complicated than that. It's Islam that has the shar'ia countries stone women to death for nothing. It's Islam when they murder apostates. The problem is the neatly packaged set of backwards ideas called Islam. If we see a real, pluralistic democracy come about anywhere in the Islamic world it will be in SPITE of Islam (and always on the brink of the electorate electing a theocracy, sadly).
Regarding support for Egypt in the past, they played ball in terms of middle east stability. If they were undemocratic to do so, that was weighed vs what happens in a "real" election. Witness Turkey, who now has Islamists in power. We'll see if they flip parties next time they have an opportunity, or if they are on the path to a more perfectly Islamic government. Pakistan is another perfect example. Supporting SOBs in Pakistan makes a hell of a lot of sense (assuming they do as we tell them) when the alternative is worse guys getting the bomb.
The US, BTW, is in a special position as the policeman. It's our unique geopolitical position that requires us to be involved in places we'd just assume not be (who else will do it, the Republic of Ireland?)
Tribesman
02-05-11, 10:33 AM
Since when being a patriot is a bad thing.
where do you want to start?
would you like to explore the inherant problems of nationalsim or go along the old line about patriotism being the last refuge of the scoundrel.
Come to think of it that fat german junkie with a thing about uniforms had a line about the wonders of patriotism.
Yeah, and it's fine for us to bomb them (or pay someone else to).
If its fine then its fine for them to do it too.
That said, unlike Iran and their minions in Lebanon, we don't intentionally murder civilians. They do. Eye on the ball.
And that is where your eye is avoiding looking at the ball, your minions do. Your tax dollars pay them and enable them to do so, that is why I mentioned the State Dept. report that Aramike seemed to think was somehow a foriegn office report on its own state.
So the balance of good/evil here is mistreatment of a small number of people vs mistreatment of a huge number of people.
And thats where you run into problems in trying to justify the unjutifiable while condemning the unjustifiable which it seems in your view it is only unjustifiable if it is someone else doing it.
Regarding support for Egypt in the past, they played ball in terms of middle east stability.
Did they really? the dictators played their own ball game.
Pakistan is another perfect example.
Bloody hell, could you find a worse example?
Of all the crazy dictatorships to support you mention one with the worst consequences as being a perfect example. Its a perfect example of what not to do and how supporting nuts blows up in your face leaving you with even bigger problems.
Supporting SOBs in Pakistan makes a hell of a lot of sense (assuming they do as we tell them) when the alternative is worse guys getting the bomb.
Which elements of Pakistans nuclear assistance to "worse guys" is it you seem to not know about?
No, Islam causes islamic nuts.
Hey Toto this sure ain't Kansas but looky a strawman.
read again very slowly and look at the letters that make things called words ......builds the islamic nuts to such a scale.
It's Islam that has the shar'ia countries stone women to death for nothing.
Sharia counties? which ones? please be specific instead of your vague generalisations. Its funny really you specify "nothing", can you be clearer?
It's Islam when they murder apostates.
here we go again:doh:....isn't that specificly against their religion according to that old book they are supposed to follow?
Yep and it's no wonder why he spends so much time in the Brig.
Maybe its more to do with certain people complaining lots while being trolls themselves.:yeah:
Heres a thought for those who seem to be intent on only really seeing one side and only condemning one side while justifying the same actions by the other.
Ever heard of a doctrine an American put his name to when it comes to condemning bad stuff?
where do you want to start?
would you like to explore the inherant problems of nationalsim or go along the old line about patriotism being the last refuge of the scoundrel.
Come to think of it that fat german junkie with a thing about uniforms had a line about the wonders of patriotism.
Seen to many Israeli documentaries from 50 and 60?
We just love serving army for 3 years when kids in other coutures finish their BA degree.
Yes all enjoy wearing green uniforms in middle of life for 30 days a year till 40 years old chasing some ****ers in West Bank or where ever.
What i love about m16 that is bigger than my dick and girls love it.
You really should review your position on Israeli society.
DarkFish
02-05-11, 02:03 PM
where do you want to start?
would you like to explore the inherant problems of nationalsim or go along the old line about patriotism being the last refuge of the scoundrel.
Come to think of it that fat german junkie with a thing about uniforms had a line about the wonders of patriotism.It really all depends on how you define "patriotism." If you define it as love for your country, it's a plainly stupid thing to unconditionally love and trust your government. It's just as stupid to love your flag, and to be prepared to fight for it. A flag is just that - a flag. And that is where I hate the Israelian patriotism.
If you define patriotism as love for your culture and your people, I see it as a positive thing. There's a countless number of beautiful cultures around the world, it would be a huge shame if all of this was lost.
Egypt's President Hosni Mubarak "must stay in office" during a power transition, a US special envoy says.
Frank Wisner was speaking as protesters kept up their demands for Mr Mubarak to step down immediately.
But the state department said Mr Wisner's views had not been co-ordinated with the US government.
Mr Mubarak has pledged to quit in September. Earlier, he replaced the entire politburo of his ruling party, including his son Gamal.
President Barack Obama has urged Mr Mubarak to "make the right decision" and to begin the transition "now".
Hossam Badrawi, a reformer and top physician, took the post of head of the policies committee, held by Gamal, and that of secretary-general.
Protesters still occupy Cairo's Tahrir Square, but their numbers have fallen from Friday's huge rally.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-12374753
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2011/02/05/protest-leaders-meet-egypt-pm/# (Fox News link)
Note: Update Record, 5 February 2011 Last updated at 20:47 GMT
Penguin
02-05-11, 04:41 PM
"I believe nationalism and seperatism are siblings. I will never be a nationalist, but a patriot. A patriot is someone who loves his fatherland, a nationalist someone, who despises the fatherlands of others"
Johannes Rau, German president 1999-2004
<--neither of both, just wanted to throw in a good definition
Castout
02-05-11, 06:23 PM
For the sake of saving face Mubarak won't quit . . . .
This is the kind of thing I despise from my fellow Asians be it Malays or Chinese. Oriental leaders tend to think backwards, they think they are some feudal lord while in fact they hold an elected office. It's a big no no for them to lose face but they have no qualms about murdering and destroying the lives of innocent AGAIN FOR FACE! This is making Oriental leaders whimsical at best as you never know what they would deem as saving their face. Saddam would execute anyone who was reported not having smile upon seeing him on television :doh:. Singapore government tried to murder me just because I had a crush to a girl which I never knew and then labeled me nothing short of crazy to protect themselves and persecuted, defamed and sabotaged my efforts so I won't make it in life since otherwise they would lose face! Their main weapon include: insult, intimidation, defamation, cheating, lying, murdering even psychic spying(No I don;t care what you believe I know this for a fact it's a fact to me not a belief). What these people are after is trash they will realize that but it will be too late. No don't you repent. There is no God, there's no resurrection nor the final judgment. BACKWARDNESS is oriental. PROVEN. Must be genes. Hundred of years of kow towing to some Chinese emperor.
Now Mubarak isn't going to step down immediately. He never intended. He's decided to rule Egypt based on forcefulness and his own determination from now own to September instead the approval of his people. He's got no consent from his people any longer that's obvious. Of course he's making the excuse for stability but his credibility is gone. Zip. Nil. None. But it's okay as long as he's got his face. The need of the one exceeds the need of the many especially if it's argued that it's for the many own good. Hopefully he will remember when September comes. In all I give China points for having said and done nothing and minus for USA for trying and failed because of being confused. China 1, USA -1 for this round.
Ha ha, Egypt tells Iran to mind it's own business :)
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2011/02/05/egypt-tells-iran-mind-business/
CAIRO – Egypt's foreign minister has told Iran to mind its own business after Iran's top leader praised the Egyptian uprising as an appropriate response to dictatorial rule. Ahmed Aboul Gheit told reporters Saturday that Iran's Ali Khamenei seems to have forgotten about the crushing of widespread protests in Iran two years ago.
Aboul Gheit said Khamenei should be more attentive to calls for freedom in Iran rather than "distracting the Iranian people's attention by hiding behind what is happening in Egypt."
The Egyptian foreign minister said that "Iran's critical moment has not come yet, but we will watch that moment with great anticipation and interest."
Aramike
02-06-11, 03:43 AM
Reading problems again?Ah, yes, the typical Tribesman remark made to anyone who takes his logic to task.
You know, after awhile the rest of us notice how often you accuse others of "reading problems". The logical extension of that makes pretty much everyone reach a consensus that, rather than others having "reading problems", YOU merely have "writing problems".
I'm curious - is English your first language?Your tax dollars pay them and enable them to do so, that is why I mentioned the State Dept. report that Aramike seemed to think was somehow a foriegn office report on its own state.An ironic retort considering that my response to the report was not to challenge it but to question whether or not it was important. But again, hey - everyone but you seems to have a problem with basic communication. (Which, by definition, seems to suggest that your deficiencies would be the common denominator. I wouldn't normally point out something so obvious, but I must consider my audience.)
Aramike
02-06-11, 03:46 AM
Just some reminders.
Socialists and communists in Iran thought they could cooperate with Khomeini after the Shah was chased away. Almost all of these socialists and communists ended up hanging from light masts and telephone poles once Khomeini had secured his power - with the crowds cheering. Since then, democracy in Iran has formed up one split-tongued and autocratic caricature of a Democratic regime after the other.
It were Democratic elections that brought the fundamentalist AKP to power in Turkey. Since then it systematically erodes the secular design of the Kemalistic order, reinstalls patriarchal personnel and leadership structures in public services,eliminates the military and the constitutional court as guardians of the secular order, and has caused and supported a massive move towards a more fundamentalist revival of Islam, leas ding the country towards old Osman dreams of imperial grandness, and saw it lining up with countries like Iran and Syria.
It were democratic elections that maintained the anything but Democratic regime in Algeria until today.
It were democratic elections that brought Hamas to power in the Gaza strip.
In the light of this, now consider that in Egypt, a majority of people would accept and even welcome to live under a regime basing on Sharia law. Polls before the unrest broke out found a majority for fundamentalist parties and the Muslim brotherhood. How great is the probability that there will come a really Democratic order in Egypt that lives for longer than just the next one or two legislation periods?
Not very great, I would say. Because I see not a single argument or fact indicating the opposite.You made my point.
We have come to (errantly, in my opinion) accept that democracy, in and of itself, is somehow inherently "good". This stance is wrong and makes little sense.
Tribesman
02-06-11, 07:02 AM
Ah, yes, the typical Tribesman remark made to anyone who takes his logic to task.
Yes Aramike reading problems.
How else can you explain your response?
Please, justify the police state I live in. This will likely be quite humorous.
My goodness, thank you, for bringing to light the rampant state-sponsored murder than occurs right under my own nose. People are disappearing constantly!
Who said you live in a police state? who brought to light state sponsored murder in your state?
How the hell would the US State Dept. be compiling foriegn human rights reports on its own state.
So its either your reading or your logic or both that is at fault.
Simple formula.
(1) A does X, B doesn't do X, so A is bad as X is wrong
(2) A does X , B does X, both are bad as X is wrong
(Aramike) C doesn't do X and I should know so your claims about two countries doing X are wrong
An ironic retort considering that my response to the report was not to challenge it but to question whether or not it was important.
Since it was addressing a claim by august about Irans proxies doing nasty stuff and it showed that Americas proxies do exactly the same then your questioning its importance shows you are having difficulty with an old word again.
Context aramike, you know the word you get confused over.:yeah:
wouldn't normally point out something so obvious, but I must consider my audience.
Is that the big audience that last time you chose to use the ignore function was also telling you the passage you was on about couldn't mean what you said it meant unless you took it completely out of context?:har:
It really is a simple problem, people wish to condemn Iran, what could be simpler.
Unfortunately in this case its taken a turn to condemning Iran for what it does in other states when other countries do just the same, with a mixed portion of denial of other states doing the same and justification of other states doing the same.
Castout
02-06-11, 07:26 AM
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/06/weekinreview/06held.html?_r=1&partner=rss&emc=rss
Tribesman
02-06-11, 08:30 AM
Just an additional piece to demostrate Aramikes problem.
Earlier Aramike ranted about the meaning of words, the virtue of words , the choice of using those words and the application of the concepts conveyed by those words.
In each case there was a nonesnsical rant based on some very false assumptions on his part.
All the words used he had problem with were very specific, they were chosen because they were very specific, their source was also chosen for a specific reason.
The reason of course being that knowing what the knee jerk reaction will be you use a position where they will attack the very thing that they think they are defending.:up:
Rockstar
02-06-11, 08:52 AM
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/MB05Ak01.html
By Pepe Escobar
Condoleeza, Condoleeza
Get him a visa
- Chant heard on Tahrir Square
Anybody believing that Washington's "orderly transition" led by Vice President Omar Suleiman (aka Sheikh al-Torture, according to protesters and human-rights activists) could satisfy Egyptian popular will believes Adolf Hitler or Joseph Stalin could have gotten away with a facelift. The young, urban masses in Egypt fighting for bread, freedom, democracy, Internet, jobs and a decent future - as well as their counterparts across the Arab world, two-thirds of the overall population - see right through it...
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/MB05Ak01.html
By Pepe Escobar
Condoleeza, Condoleeza
Get him a visa
- Chant heard on Tahrir Square
Anybody believing that Washington's "orderly transition" led by Vice President Omar Suleiman (aka Sheikh al-Torture, according to protesters and human-rights activists) could satisfy Egyptian popular will believes Adolf Hitler or Joseph Stalin could have gotten away with a facelift. The young, urban masses in Egypt fighting for bread, freedom, democracy, Internet, jobs and a decent future - as well as their counterparts across the Arab world, two-thirds of the overall population - see right through it...
Thanks for posting that Rockstar.
You listening Castout? I said that the masses wouldn't be satisfied with just Mubarak leaving.
Egypt's opposition - including the banned Muslim Brotherhood - says government offers on ending the political crisis do not go far enough.
The Muslim Brotherhood and other groups took part in landmark talks with the government after 13 days of street protests which have called for President Hosni Mubarak to resign.
The government has proposed a review body to amend the constitution.
The opposition says the talks are only a first step and the government's offer is insufficient.
The Brotherhood - which is officially banned - said it would continue to participate in the talks but warned that protests would continue.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12377179
Note: Update Record, 6 February 2011 Last updated at 17:37 GMT
Aramike
02-06-11, 01:44 PM
Wow, Tribesman, you are obsessed over me, aren't you? :har::har::har:
Tribesman
02-06-11, 02:57 PM
Wow, Tribesman, you are obsessed over me, aren't you?
It appears the reverse is true.
Though it may be a good odds on bet to say that on past performances maybe you have a different meaning to the word than the rest of the English speaking world:rotfl2:
Egypt's opposition - including the banned Muslim Brotherhood - says government offers on ending the political crisis do not go far enough.
That is no surprise, the offer is that the military dictator stays on for a while and the business is handled by the bloke who ran the police state for him.
So to take rockstars line, its like Hitler hoofing off to the mountains for a holiday and putting Himmler in charge of settling disputes with people who don't like Nazis.
It is interesting to see some previous US govt. views of Sulieman isn't it.
Rockstar
02-06-11, 05:27 PM
Thanks for posting that Rockstar.
You listening Castout? I said that the masses wouldn't be satisfied with just Mubarak leaving.
I like Pepe, the brains at asia times can be pretty insightful sometimes. Better than listening to CNN, FOX, MSNBC and Castout :O: all the time
Armistead
02-06-11, 06:12 PM
I understand for a peaceful transfer of power. Mubarak may actually have been planning to leave this fall, but planned to put his son in power. My fear is something like this is still in the work.
Sad, when they have elections, only Mubaraks name was on the ballot. If they have elections again and his son name is on the ballot, he wins, nothing will have been gained, because it would've been a set up.
Jimbuna
02-06-11, 06:15 PM
http://cheezcomixed.files.wordpress.com/2011/02/319ee586-95e9-45e0-a0a2-cd768bf79d81.jpg
http://cheezcomixed.files.wordpress.com/2011/02/319ee586-95e9-45e0-a0a2-cd768bf79d81.jpg :haha:
CAIRO — As Egyptians turned their anger on symbols of the state late last month, torching police stations along with the headquarters of President Hosni Mubarak’s ruling party, they reserved a special hatred for a garish building with black tinted windows in an upscale neighborhood, setting fire to it three times.
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/07/world/middleeast/07corruption.html?hp
Note: Update Record,Published: February 6, 2011
Attempts to return Egypt to normality after two weeks of deadly anti-government protests have suffered a number of setbacks.
While banks have reopened, schools and the stock exhange remain closed, and an important government building has been prevented from opening by protesters.
They are occupying Tahrir Square in Cairo, saying they will leave only when President Hosni Mubarak stands down.
Some spent the night in or under army vehicles, to stop efforts to move them.
On Monday, resumption of business at the stock exchange was postponed for 24 hours, as the government attempted to sell $2.5bn (£1.55bn) in short-term debt, after the cancellation of auctions last week. It is seeking to revive an economy said to be losing at least $310m a day.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12378828
Note: Update Record,7 February 2011 Last updated at 12:52 GMT
Jimbuna
02-07-11, 04:31 PM
Cut and Paste, like Google....is your friend :03:
Cut and Paste, like Google....is your friend :03: What is Google for something?, and cut and paste, :timeout:
Tribesman
02-07-11, 05:10 PM
Cut and Paste, like Google....is your friend
Be fair, the complaint was that he was just making loads of posts with nothing but a news link and no comment of his own.
Its fixed now as you get a link and a cut and paste of a few lines from the link giving someone elses comment.
Nothing, yet you are the one who frequents them at their very best, why not post your own threads instead, but the reason for this is surely rooted in laziness.
Tribesman
02-07-11, 05:26 PM
but the reason for this is surely rooted in laziness.
I am very active, look
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/
NEWS 11February 2011 Last updated at 21:31GMT
I am very active, look
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/
NEWS 11February 2011 Last updated at 21:31GMT I'm impressed, a link and nothing more, what would any potent readers see of it, nothing, just a link!
It really all depends on how you define "patriotism." If you define it as love for your country, it's a plainly stupid thing to unconditionally love and trust your government. It's just as stupid to love your flag, and to be prepared to fight for it. A flag is just that - a flag. And that is where I hate the Israelian patriotism.
.
MY .....:damn:
KEEP BANGING.
Skybird
02-08-11, 07:52 AM
Meanwhile the persecution of Christians in Egypt continues. Three days ago, a huge cathedral of the Copts in Rafah has been stormed by a mob of around 100 men, who first beaten up a preist and some visitors, then damaged, destroyed or taken away paintings and figurines, then set the whole building on fire.
I hgave to give it to them, they now far better how to persecute hated relgious m iunorities than we Wetserners do in our own contries. We already cry wolf if some lonely stranger demandign special Muslim rights for himself is not allowed him these special rights immediately, for that would be a huge crime and an offence.
When there were some TV pics a week or ten days ago where they showed some Egyptians holding up signs that Muslims and Christians stand united againmst Mubarak, I did not give too much for that from beginning on. Simple fact is that the Egyptians in general hate the Copts very much, and constantly persecute and supress and discrminate them. I remind of the attempt to ruin their excistential basis by killing of swines in the wage of the swine flu.Swines were exclsuively held by Coptian Christs in Egypt. And swine flu had nothing medical to do with the operation.
Six weeks ago, a Muslim bomber murdered 23 Coptians when they left a church after the mass by exploding a bomb. Last year several Christians were murdered on open street. Usually all places of Coptian Christians need to be closely guarded by constant police presence - that tolerant Egyptian society is. Coptians complain about constant state discrimination and law abuse against them nevertheless. Their community is being systemtically reduced in since ever, using discrimination, intimidation and threat to chase them away, or making them converting to Islam.
P.S.
Apropos church burning, although not Egypt but Indonesia, another two Christian churches and a courthouse there have been burned down by Muslim mobs after a Christian was sentenced to five years in prison for having distributed leaflets that were claimed to be an insult to Islam. The mob was not happy with the verdict, and wanted the death penalty. It s just the last incident in a long series of violent attacks on Christian minorities.
Tribesman
02-08-11, 10:54 AM
Meanwhile the persecution of Christians in Egypt continues.
Continues?
So stuff that happened under the nice dictator still happens under the nice dictator.
When there were some TV pics a week or ten days ago where they showed some Egyptians holding up signs that Muslims and Christians stand united againmst Mubarak
You should have gone to Mubaraks press, the people holding up signs were lackeys of the decadent christian west and agents of the global zionists.
Hold on there, decadent west and global religious conspiracies...thats a Skybird line isn't it, whoda thunk he would be writing the dictators press releases:har:
TLAM Strike
02-08-11, 02:22 PM
Hold on there, decadent west and global religious conspiracies...thats a Skybird line isn't it, whoda thunk he would be writing the dictators press releases:har: A man has to make a living don't he? :haha:
A man has to make a living don't he? :haha: All do not get it, you have to consider the audience..
the_tyrant
02-08-11, 05:22 PM
All do not get it, you have to consider the audience..
I have people in my forum payed 50 cents (yuan) per post
they are found in every forum in China
wikipedia link:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/50_Cent_Party
the life style is too sad to describe
I heard they just got a raise to 80 cents per post
I have people in my forum payed 50 cents (yuan) per post
they are found in every forum in China
wikipedia link:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/50_Cent_Party
the life style is too sad to describe
I heard they just got a raise to 80 cents per post Strange world, money has their own story, and a powerful effect on some people.
CAIRO -- A leading Egyptian businessman who calls his newspaper and TV station “the voice of the protesters” says he's concerned the Muslim Brotherhood could take over Egypt’s revolution.
“There is a real fear they will hijack (the movement) ... The problem with these people is they will say you want a democracy, fine, you get elected in a democracy. Then you get Iranian version of democracy where they shoot their own people,” said Naguib Sawiris, speaking to Fox News from his 26th-floor Cairo office at the Nile Towers complex.
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2011/02/08/leading-egyptian-businessman-fears-muslim-brotherhood/
Note: Update Record, Published February 08, 2011
the_tyrant
02-08-11, 05:54 PM
Strange world, money has their own story, and a powerful effect on some people.
Unbelievably, these guys are challenging freedom of speech for far less than what you expect
If you saw a coin on a busy street in Stockholm, you might not even pick it up. These commentates are payed around 0.05 euro per medium sized post!
The commentators themselves are being abused
The proposed Diagnostic Criterion of Internet Addiction makes clear that the Internet-addicted should be treated in medical units with psychiatric departments, Tao said.
A manual expected to be approved by the Chinese Ministry of Health says staying online for more than six hours a day, instead of working or studying, and having adverse reactions from not being able to get online, are two major symptoms of Internet Addiction Disorder (IAD).
If you use the internet for more than 6 hours a day for reasons other than studying or work, you have a mental disorder!
The commentators them selves are working in sweatshop-like conditions because they can't get any respectable work anyways. The government says they are disabled, and mentally unstable.
I know, it's a bloody hell, and the whole country is a great firewall only the :nope:
Skybird
02-08-11, 07:14 PM
Bruderkriegsindex der arabischen Aufstände (http://www.achgut.com/dadgdx/index.php/dadgd/print/0020144)
A German piece from yesterday, by Gunnar Heihnsohn, to whose academic statistical studies on how demographic constellations influence the inner dynamics of societies I have repatedly referred to in past months.
In this text it is stunning how precise he is able to show how the different developements in nations along the Northafrican coast and into the Middle East correspondents with the outcome of violent uprises of their young male inhbaitants against the elites formed by the older male inhbaitants that are in power. The relation b etween the shares of young male people and old male people as well as the birthrates of women allow to forsee how future inner conflicts of these societies will go by more peaceful or more violent ways, and may in the end successful, or necessarily failures.
Seen in the light of Heihnsohn's arguments, neither the relatively quick arrangement they now found in Tunisia as well as his pessimistic expectations for Egypt are a surprise.
I have read books by him and am familiar with his general thinling and his theory of so-called "youth bulge". PC-briogades of course love to hate him, for what he says is not what people want to see for the future. But he has one strong argument to his defence: his models describe current and past outcomes of events basing in demographic factors very precisely and correctly. I can only recommend to read his works, and form your own opinion on his arguments. The statistical facts he is basing on, cannot be denied and are not even disputed by his critics. After all, his academic career specialised in these. His interests however became widespread, leading his works beyond pure demographics:
http://www.amazon.com/s/qid=1297210563/ref=a9_sc_1/179-6778607-0488444?ie=UTF8&search-alias=aps&field-keywords=gunnar%20heinsohn
I especially recommend "Söhne und Weltmacht", "Lexikon der Völkermorde", and - very different in focus - "Eigentum, Zins und Geld. Ungelöste Rätsel der Wirtschaftswissenschaften".
CAIRO – The trappings of a determined protest movement — chanting, flags and raised fists — fill Tahrir Square, the hard-won enclave of those who seek a new Egypt. But some there fear an enemy within.
The boldest challenge ever to President Hosni Mubarak's three decades of authoritarian rule has so far failed in its singular goal to oust him immediately. And after initial euphoria over their defiance of a state once thought impregnable, protesters are increasingly uneasy that Mubarak or leaders he has chosen may manage to hang on to power.
If they do, there is a growing fear that the entrenched regime will try to exact revenge in the way it has done so many times before — mass arrests and abuse of detainees.
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2011/02/09/egypt-protesters-fear-revenge-mubarak-holds/
Note: Update Record, Published February 09, 2011
I have people in my forum payed 50 cents (yuan) per post
they are found in every forum in China
wikipedia link:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/50_Cent_Party
the life style is too sad to describe
I heard they just got a raise to 80 cents per post Cool clip in your sig, :up:
Anti-government protests in the Egyptian capital Cairo have spread to the country's parliament, with access blocked by demonstrators.
Soldiers are guarding the People's Assembly building after a 16th consecutive day of protests.
They took place despite a warning by Vice-President Omar Suleiman that demonstrations must end.
There are reports of widespread industrial action, and of protests outside Cairo turning violent.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12405247
Note: Update record,9 February 2011 Last updated at 19:01 GMT
Egypt's foreign minister has rebuffed calls from Washington to speed up the pace of political reform.
Rejecting a US demand to lift a state of emergency, Ahmed Aboul Gheit said Washington should not "impose" its will on "a great country".
Many thousands of Egyptians have been protesting since 25 January calling for President Hosni Mubarak to step down.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12413840
Note: Update Record, 10 February 2011 Last updated at 07:51 GMT
Jimbuna
02-10-11, 07:35 AM
No signs of any lessening of the situation then :hmmm:
No signs of any lessening of the situation then :hmmm: But after so many days now, so should well be a solution in sight without interference by other states.
Skybird
02-10-11, 08:37 AM
The US learns how limited its influence in the Arab world really is:
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/09/world/middleeast/09diplomacy.html
German media report about a very angry telephone talk between Obama and Abdullah of SA, with then kind threatening that if the US would cancel it's military aid to Egypt in order to press for faster changes, Saudi Arabia would jump in and fully compensate for these fundings of the Egyptian military. This is not only because of concerns about stability in the region and protecting the other autocratic regimes, but also because Abdullah and Mubarak are close personal friends.
Latest signals seem to imply that the US is taking the foot off the gas pedal.
German media report about a very angry telephone talk between Obama and Abdullah of SA
How would the German media know what was said in a private telephone conversation between two foreign heads of state?
An interference from the U.S is not preferable, if all the tracks out properly so possibly mandate from the UN's Security Council, if necessary, outside observers.
TLAM Strike
02-10-11, 09:01 AM
How would the German media know what was said in a private telephone conversation between two foreign heads of state?
Wikileaks... :O:
Skybird
02-10-11, 09:21 AM
How would the German media know what was said in a private telephone conversation between two foreign heads of state?
By refering to the source as quoted by an article of the London Times. So in the end you ask: is what <quote on> highranking diplomats in Riyahd <quote off> says about these talks true or not.
Quoted by the German article:
German (http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/0,1518,744693,00.html)
And this is the original piece by the London Times, which now is payware so I cannot give you all of it, I am not subscribed there:
Exclusive:
Saudis told Obama to back Mubarak
Hugh Tomlinson Riyadh February 10 2011 12:01AM
Saudi Arabia has threatened to prop up President Mubarak if the White House tries to force a swift change of regime in Egypt. In a testy personal telephone call on January 29, King Abdullah told President Obama not to humiliate Mr Mubarak and warned that he would step in to bankroll Egypt if the US withdrew its aid programme, worth $1.5 billion annually. America’s closest ally in the Gulf made clear that the Egyptian President must be allowed to stay on to oversee the transition towards peaceful democracy and then leave with dignity. “Mubarak and King Abdullah are not just allies, they are close friends, and the King is not about to see his friend cast aside and humiliated,” a senior source in the Saudi capital told The Times. Two sources confirmed details of the King’s call, made four days after the people
End of preview
It ends with Mubarak is forced to resign, there is always a risk of civil war which MB would like to see.
Tribesman
02-10-11, 12:09 PM
It ends with Mubarak is forced to resign, there is always a risk of civil war which MB would like to see.
He may have to go right now, his "steps towards reform" and his choice of Sulieman have managed to pull the rug from anyone in the West who could remotely have supported even a temporary stay for his dictatorship.
CaptainHaplo
02-10-11, 02:23 PM
Man, Obama can't win in this one at all. Press for change and the existing regimes will counter, stand with the status quo and get raked over the coals.
This is what happens when a problem simmers for way too long. I don't care for our current pres, but this has been a decades long boil that he is getting caught up in.
Just goes to show in foreign policy you have to think long term....
Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak said Thursday he has passed authority to Vice President Omar Suleiman, but will not step down before September elections.
The move, announced in a nationally-televised address, means he will retain his title of president and ensures the regime will continue to control the reform process.The announcement was not what thousands of protesters in Cairo's Tahrir Square had hoped for, as they resumed their chants of "Leave! Leave! Leave!"
"I will never leave Egypt and Egypt will not leave me until I am buried in the soil of Egypt," Mubarak said in his 15-minute address.
Mubarak said the demands of the protesters calling for his immediate ouster are legitimate. He said he had requested six constitutional amendments to answer protesters' demands and that he would lift hated emergency laws -- but only when security permitted.
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2011/02/10/developing-egyptian-president-mubarak-respond-protester-demands/
Note: Update Record,Published February 10, 2011
Skybird
02-10-11, 05:01 PM
Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak said Thursday he has passed authority to Vice President Omar Suleiman,
And Putin once passed authority to Medwedew. :)
Mubarak will leave sooner or later, but the system and the elitary clique that has much to lose, will stay.
I thought like that from beginning on, than for one or two days got infested by the enthusiasm of my Egyptian friend on the scene, and soon after that came back to my senses. When the reports came today there was a speech to be delivered, most people seem to have thought that Mubarak would step down and elections being called out within 60 days. I expected Mubarak to formally step back, but the military taking over, even more so when I read this morning that the Saudis had snubbed Washington some days ago. That "democracy in Egypt" thing I do not believe in. Egypt has a very long history of being governed by potentates, and cliques. A democratic tradition it's history has not.
The Egyptian military is not powerful simply because it is the military. The Egyptian military owns rather a large % of Egyptian businesses. They are a large employer (non-military), and a large chunk of GDP (as a business actually making money). Former officers are given "plums" as jobs in their many business interests. They have many reasons to keep the government at lest on the same page, AND they have an interest in not ruthlessly coming down on the protests (the protesters are, after all, customers).
Skybird
02-11-11, 07:21 AM
The limits of morality - sometimes it's right to cooperate with dictators (http://www.spiegel.de/international/zeitgeist/0,1518,druck-744597,00.html)
The author teaches politics at the Humbold university in Berlin. Amongst other works he is the author of "The New Wars" and "Empires. The Logic of World Domination from Ancient Rome to the United States", both of which I strongly recommend. He also published an analytical biography of Machiavelli, which simply is brilliant and reveals how simplified and misleading popular views of Machiavelli as an alleged propagandist of cynism and evil are.
Skybird
02-11-11, 07:26 AM
Just in: Al Arabja reports Mubarak and his family have left Egypt in secrecy. Huge demonstrations are currently held in Cairo, on the Tahir and at the presidential palace.
Reports indicate he may be in Sharm El-Sheikh.
Perhaps the MOSSAD sharks will act as bodyguards for him? :hmmm:
Other reports indicate that he's gone to the UAE. If he's left the country, now will be the chance for the military to step in and make his removal official. Therefore I doubt he will have left the country...well...not by his own free will anyway.
My information says otherwise, but nevertheless it is a turbulent and extremely delicate situation
11 February 2011 Last updated at 16:16
Egypt crisis: President Hosni Mubarak resigns as leader
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12433045
Onkel Neal
02-11-11, 11:46 AM
It always galls me to see some dictator missuse the title "President".
Well, it will be interesting to see what comes next there. Is there an Egyptian George Washington?
Stratfor predicted this yesterday.
There were 3 choices.
They do nothing, and risk an uncontrolled change of power (not in the interest of the military).
They block the protesters, which might result in violence.
They get rid of Mubarak and have an extra-constitutional coup to maintain the government Nasser started. (in this case, they tell the President to hand over power)
Stratfor yesterday said the only possible option was the last.
It always galls me to see some dictator missuse the title "President".
Well, it will be interesting to see what comes next there. Is there an Egyptian George Washington?
Lets hope it will not change to Supreme Priest lol.
commandosolo2009
02-11-11, 12:05 PM
Hey guys,
Being an Egyptian, I thought I'd share this with you all.. The President has stepped down. Authority now lies in the hands of the military, pending formation of an interim government and cabinet.
Cheers and Chants flood the street after the man who took the country hostage for 30 years, finally realised he cant stand in the face of people.
I hope our relation with nearby nations stay the same, including, most importantly, Israel. I understand the fears that some people might try to cross, but I'm sure IDF will watch their backdoor. Share your opinions and express your worries or happiness..
It's expected that the curfew be lifted, and a new government be formed in a matter of days.. I hope they set a term limit to 2, just like ol' Uncle Sam :rock:
Cheers.
Congratulations to Egypt and best wishes for the future.
ReallyDedPoet
02-11-11, 12:08 PM
Great news :yep::up:
Congratulations to you all, and I hope that you get the changes that you want in Egypt and that the process is not hijacked by others for their causes. :yeah:
Takeda Shingen
02-11-11, 12:18 PM
I wonder how long before the Muslim Brotherhood takes control.
Mubarak transfers powers to Suleiman, but it's only a start
The question that lingers in Tahrir Square after Mubarak's speech: What next? The only thing that is certain is that Egypt will never be the same again.
By Avi Issacharoff (http://www.haaretz.com/misc/writers/avi-issacharoff-1.307) Tags: Egypt protests (http://www.haaretz.com/meta/Tag/Egypt%20protests) Israel news (http://www.haaretz.com/meta/Tag/Israel%20news)
It is doubtful if at this point it is possible to predict even a fraction of the implications of this incredible event in Middle East history. A president, in the largest and strongest country in the region, which has a peace treaty with the State of Israel, transferred all of his powers to his vice-president and in effect vacated his position because of pressure from the masses.
In less than a month, another revolution forces a Middle Eastern president to end his term of power. The masses in Tahrir Square and the streets of Alexandria did this in the last few days with almost no violence (outbreaks of violence occurred in smaller, more peripheral cities), using the most democratic methods possible – street demonstrations, strikes, and eventually, bringing the country's economic activity to a standstill.
http://www.haaretz.com/polopoly_fs/1.342594.1297387410!/image/1855363701.jpg_gen/derivatives/landscape_295/1855363701.jpg Anti-government protesters surround the state television building following Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak's televised speech, Cairo, February 10, 2011.
Photo by: AP
But despite the legitimate protests, the big question that still lingers over Tahrir Square even after Mubarak's speech: What next?
Israeli nightmare scenarios notwithstanding, Hosni Mubarak finished his career after 30 years without a violent revolution or assassination attempt by Egyptian Islamists. Mubarak is stepping down from the position of president because of popular protests that stirred the excitement of millions of young people.
Most of these young people are secular and educated, protesting the poor economy – the poverty, the unemployment, the lack of a future, the government corruption, the bureaucracy, and especially a dictator that ruled the country with an iron fist, crushing democracy and human rights.
From the very beginning of the demonstrations on January 25 until minutes before Mubarak's speech on Thursday night, the demonstrators demanded the ouster of the president again and again . They stood there Thursday night, joyous, content, almost euphoric in the wake of their accomplishment of forcing the transfer of powers from the hands of the Egyptian Ra'is to his vice-president Omar Suleiman.
All of the violence tactics that were used against the protesters in the last 17 days, the arrests, the torturing, the executions, and even the thousands of thugs that were sent to frighten the masses, did not scare them from the streets. Day after day they returned to the square, while thousands of others set up a tent city on the spot and chose to sleep there.
President Mubarak and his Vice-President Suleiman tried every trick in the book. They conducted negotiations with representatives of the opposition, they fired the cabinet, they replaced the party leadership, announced that Mubarak's son Gamal would not succeed him, and offered an abundance of reforms.
But the masses were not prepared to compromise. While representatives of many opposition parties, even of the Muslim Brotherhood, conducted talks with Suleiman at the beginning of the week, tens of thousands of Egyptian youth in Tahrir Square refused to accept the compromises offered and continued to call for Mubarak's head.
At the beginning of the week it seemed as if Mubarak and Suleiman had succeeded in weakening and fracturing the opposition. It had no leadership, and certainly no leader. On Sunday and Monday there was even a drop in the number of participants in the demonstrations, and some suspected that the protests would peter out slowly.
But in spite of these expectations, by Tuesday hundreds of thousands returned and it was clear that demonstrations were nowhere near over.
So why did Mubarak end his war of attrition with the protesters and transfer his powers? It wasn't only American pressure on the Egyptian government to institute reforms, or the economic harm being caused to the Egyptian tourist industry that was adding up.
Apparently it was the government workers that decided to hold a workers' strike and join the demonstrations. Thousands of workers in key corporations like the Suez Canal Authority, the Suez Steel company and of course thousands of government office workers (including the state-run media) joined the great festival in the square on Tuesday, preventing the state from continuing to function as a political entity.
Suleiman, Defense Minister Mohammed Tantawi and other army leaders understood that in order for life to return to normal, they must make a symbolic sacrifice of Mubarak himself – who in any case is sick with cancer and had already declared that he has no intention of running again in the upcoming elections.
So what's next? It's hard to say. First, it's not certain what the Tahrir Square protesters will do. Will they be satisfied with the transfer of responsibilities from Mubarak to Suleiman, or perhaps they will stay in central Cairo until the emergency laws are repealed or the constitution is amended, or maybe they will even continue to protest later today?
Many of the protestors that spoke with journalists in the square on Thursday night already made it clear that the transfer of power is not enough, and that only Mubarak's departure will satisfy them.
In the event that the demonstrators stay, how will the army respond? Will it instruct its people to disperse the crowd of demonstrators, after it supposedly just achieved such an amazing accomplishment? In any case, we can assume that the number of demonstrators will decrease after yesterday's announcement.
It is also unclear what the intermediary period will look like for Egypt: what kind of regime will carry out the tasks of government? Will the government that was only appointed a week and a half ago with Ahmed Shafiq at the helm continue to rule, or will a caretaker government be appointed?
And what kind of reciprocal relationship will Suleiman have with Egyptian army commanders? Suleiman is a soldier, and the Egyptian security forces know him well from his days as chief of army intelligence. It would seem that cooperation between the two will be critical in facing this great challenge.
There is another question regarding the contacts between representatives of the regime and opposition figures; will they manage to agree on a timetable for elections for the presidency and the parliament, on required changes to the constitution, on the removal of restrictions on journalists, etc.
And of course, the big question that is worrying the Israeli public, on the assumption that the Egyptian army and opposition parties manage to agree on elections, what will be the results and how successful will the Muslim Brotherhood be, after they joined the protests but were nowhere near responsible for their organization.
The Muslim Brotherhood has announced that it will not field a candidate for president. In light of this announcement, it is speculated that they will support Mohamed ElBaradei, the former head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, but that is just a guess.
A survey conducted in the last few days by the Washington Institute for Near East Policy revealed that in a presidential race, ElBaradei is relatively unpopular (3%), while 25% of respondents said they would vote for Amr Moussa, General Secretary of the Arab League. Suleiman could receive 16-17% of the vote.
In elections for the Egyptian parliament, the Muslim Brotherhood is expected to receive 15% of the vote. However, that figure will only improve after people's fear of the regime continues to dissipate. Additionally, another factor that is unclear in this equation is, what kinds of political parties will stand for election, and how many will there be?
Too much competition between the new secular political parties will only help the Muslim Brotherhood, turning them into one of, if not the biggest parties in the parliament. In any case, their power will be significantly greater than it was until now.
And what about Mubarak? It seems as though he will take a trip down to Sharm El-Sheikh, and from there continue on to Germany to continue his treatments for cancer. One thing that is abundantly clear, because and despite of all these uncertainties, is that Egypt will never be the same without him.
**********
AVGWarhawk
02-11-11, 12:25 PM
I wonder how long before the Muslim Brotherhood takes control.
:hmmm: Good question.
Now that current power has stepped down...now what?
frau kaleun
02-11-11, 12:26 PM
I am always concerned when I hear that "the military has taken over" somewhere, but I don't know squat about Egypt's military or its leaders or the situation with them, so - at least it seems Mubarak has stepped down without there being some kind of horrible bloody coup.
Whatever happens know that much of the rest of the world (me included) wishes you peace and freedom and happiness, take care of yourselves and your country and remember to be kind to each other! :salute: :woot: :yep:
commandosolo2009
02-11-11, 12:27 PM
I wonder how long before the Muslim Brotherhood takes control.
They wont. If they do, America, Europe, and the United Nations will interfere. MB (sadly ruining Benz's fine machine), cant* get to power because the majority of people in Egypt are moderate. Islamists cant get to power because its not an Islamic country proper. And if they do, they'll disturb the treaty with Israel.
We're in alot of headache right now, but I surely hope they dont. I'll have to grow a beard if they do :x :nope: :down:
I honestly hope you're right Commando, however that's a thought for tomorrow, tonight you should celebrate. It's not that often these days in a nation with a modern military that the leader is overthrown by primarily public pressure, and you've fought hard to get this far. Tonight, is a time to celebrate, then tomorrow it will be the time to work on where you want to go next, and I truly hope that you get what you want.
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