Will Egypt follow Tunisia's lead? (merged)

[STEED]

I am always concerned when I hear that "the military has taken over"

The regular Army is not the problem there made up of conscript's, it's the Special Guard or what hell there name is. Not sure of there numbers and how they will react to this, only time will tell.

[Kptlt. Neuerburg]

Congratulations to the people of Egypt for freeing yourselfs from dictatorship, I wish only the best to the new government and the people of Egypt.:salute::up:

[Schroeder]

They wont. If they do, America, Europe, and the United Nations will interfere.
Don't count on Europe. We won't interfere with anything as we simply don't have the power any more. We might support one side through words and financial aid but I don't think there's much we could do if anyone gets to power we don't like.:shifty:

But congratulations for now. Another revolution with little bloodshed.:salute:

[commandosolo2009]

Don't count on Europe. We won't interfere with anything as we simply don't have the power any more. We might support one side through words and financial aid but I don't think there's much we could do if anyone gets to power we don't like.:shifty:

But congratulations for now. Another revolution with little bloodshed.:salute:

Oh trust me, we're all scared (even the muslims themselves) of brotherhood regime. If they take over it's bye bye Camp David. No one even wants to send their kid to the conscription, let alone to a war with Israel (what's apparent). Rich people of the country might assume leadership, and they're mostly fresh from the States, England, France, etc... The only way for brotherhood to assume leadership is 60% of 90 + million population. And for that to happen, KSA and other islam proper nations would have to pay alot of money for these votes. We dont fall that easily. Rest assured, but be cautious.:arrgh!:

[Jimbuna]

Here's wishing Egypt all the best of luck in the coming days and weeks.

[Jimbuna]

I wonder how long before the Muslim Brotherhood takes control.

According to Sky and BBC news the Brotherhood would only receive 20-22% of the votes in an above the board election so if that estimate is correct I can only see them taking power via violent means....heaven forbid.

[Matador.es]

This is great new! We Will see who Will take controle now, Iran or THE west :rock:

[MH]

Congratulations from Israel.
I hope that Egyptians reach history and pride will not allow for radicalism to take over.
:salute:

[Takeda Shingen]

They wont. If they do, America, Europe, and the United Nations will interfere. MB (sadly ruining Benz's fine machine), cant* get to power because the majority of people in Egypt are moderate. Islamists cant get to power because its not an Islamic country proper. And if they do, they'll disturb the treaty with Israel.

We're in alot of headache right now, but I surely hope they dont. I'll have to grow a beard if they do :x :nope: :down:

And if they are installed due to elections as happened in Gaza? This is a real possibility. Most Islamist groups are better organized than other organizations in the region. The security that they offer is usually the primary reason for them being voted into power by the people. And most Egyptians are moderate because the party in power supressed the militant groups due to the threat that those group represented to the ruling party. With that party removed, we now have a vacuum, and the Muslim Brotherhood is towards the top of the short list to fill that vacuum. The Mulsim Brotherhood is, in the meantime, now free to advertise themselves openly.

[Schroeder]

This is great new! We Will see who Will take controle now, Iran or THE west :rock:
How about the Egyptians?;)

[Takeda Shingen]

According to Sky and BBC news the Brotherhood would only receive 20-22% of the votes in an above the board election so if that estimate is correct I can only see them taking power via violent means....heaven forbid.

If elections were to be held right now, yes. However, you have to remember that these guys have been having to hide in the bushes for the last 30 years. They can now operate, recruit and campaign openly without fear of persecution, and we all know how seductive the call of the extremist can be. My bet is that we'll see those numbers steadily rise over the next few weeks and months.

[AVGWarhawk]

If elections were to be held right now, yes. However, you have to remember that these guys have been having to hide in the bushes for the last 30 years. They can now operate, recruit and campaign openly without fear of persecution, and we all know how seductive the call of the extremist can be. My bet is that we'll see those numbers steadily rise over the next few weeks and months.

I think this is very insightful and darn close to reality.

[MaddogK]

Solo:

Authority now lies in the hands of the military

If you couldn't trust the guy you elected what makes you think you can trust the guy you didn't elect (the guy running the military) ?

[Jimbuna]

Well he's gone now (probably the right decision) so that is that.

Sky and BBC news estimate the Muslim Brotherhood can only count on between 20-22% if and when legitimate elections are held.

[CCIP]

According to the military, actually all of Egypt's governing bodies (the cabinet as well as the parliament) are dissolved. Military council is in formal control, with promises to form a civilian transitional authority shortly.

Interesting times.

[Jimbuna]

How about the Egyptians?;)

All for that :yep:

If elections were to be held right now, yes. However, you have to remember that these guys have been having to hide in the bushes for the last 30 years. They can now operate, recruit and campaign openly without fear of persecution, and we all know how seductive the call of the extremist can be. My bet is that we'll see those numbers steadily rise over the next few weeks and months.

Lets hope your wrong then :hmmm:

[August]

You'll know this is going down the wrong path if the protesters leadership start getting assassinated.

[MaddogK]

You'll know this is going down the wrong path if the protesters leadership start getting assassinated.

"Now that the protesters have gotten what they want...they will get what they deserve."

[Takeda Shingen]

Lets hope your wrong then :hmmm:

Yes. I hope that I am wrong also.

[Bilge_Rat]

I wonder how long before the Muslim Brotherhood takes control.


http://www.youtube.com/embed/KuStsFW4EmQ


:ping:

[Matador.es]

Solo:
If you couldn't trust the guy you elected what makes you think you can trust the guy you didn't elect (the guy running the military) ?

That is well said! (spoken) I wonder if the Egypt army will follow the point of view as the Turks do.

Edit: if they do, it will be enaugh to start talks on EU participation. O crap what did I say now?

[tater]

Iran jams BBC's service in Persian...

http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/greenslade/2011/feb/11/bbc-iran

Guess they only support the protests when they don't actually do anything...

[Takeda Shingen]

http://www.youtube.com/embed/KuStsFW4EmQ


:ping:

:haha:

Consider me 'zinged'.

[Jimbuna]

Sorry....can't resist :DL

http://cheezcomixed.files.wordpress.com/2011/02/e1df1287-2009-425b-9449-b4bd0ed05c07.jpg

[Jimbuna]

Sorry, can't resist....again! :DL

http://cheezcomixed.files.wordpress.com/2011/02/e1df1287-2009-425b-9449-b4bd0ed05c07.jpg

[frau kaleun]

http://verydemotivational.files.wordpress.com/2011/02/demotivational-posters-artifact.jpg

[August]

How about the Egyptians?;)

That would be my choice too...

[Bilge_Rat]

no one knows what the future holds, but that will be decided on another day...

Today we celebrate the downfall of a dictator. Today we are all Egyptians.

:woot:

[em2nought]

We've been in the hands of democrats and republicans for far longer than 30 years, I wish we could revolt. :D

[Skybird]

If elections were to be held right now, yes. However, you have to remember that these guys have been having to hide in the bushes for the last 30 years. They can now operate, recruit and campaign openly without fear of persecution, and we all know how seductive the call of the extremist can be. My bet is that we'll see those numbers steadily rise over the next few weeks and months.
Currently, it is a de facto military dictatorship. The military promised to limit this status. It also promised to end the state of emergency - since 30 years.

Let's assume they hold their promise, maybe there will even be elections within the time frame demanded by the constitution, that means with the next 60 days. The opposition was suppressed, and is not organized. And the opposition in this case m ans: democratic factions, extremist factions (note: plural!), the MB, and faction loyal to the old order. The next election thus would be hard to predict, and would be hard to be used as a prediction for the coming years and elections later: everything is pretty much in disarray. Though polls before the unrest broke out said that the extremist factions would gain a majority.

Let's assume that poll was wrong. The next elections would not be a reliable predicator for things to come anyway. In the years after the first election - this is when parties and factions, including extremists and the MB, will put themselves up in the public perception, they will use the coming legislation period to organize themselves, and to maneuver to get a good start at the elections after that.

In other words: I do not see the coming elections as decisive, but the second elections from now on, those that will be there in - as much as we can forsee that - four five years. And that time frame is where my concerns are focused on.

In Afghanistan, many people assumed the conflict to be over many years to soon. In Iraq, the same people assumed the decisive choices being made - but again, that assumption came to soon. And I think it will be the same with Egypt. There is a desire in the West to see democracy ruling Egypt, and this wishful thinking seems to lead the tongues of quite some people stepping before the camera.

But in four or five years - that is when we will talk serious business - and not within the next 12 months.

My hope is the military, especially right becasue its leaders have priviliges to lose. In the past 18 days, it maneuvered between loyalty to the regime, becasue ti was the regime giving its leaders its wealth and priviliges, and loyalty to the people, because they saw that the pressure from the street would enforce an overthrow of the old order, so they needed to prepare for that case as well. The result was the apparent neutrality of the military, and its ambvition to keep the interior ministry and thge police in check, which it did. But in the future,it will have more freedoms to act and chose a side in order to defend priviliges of its leaders. And it could be that this selfishness will prove to be what decides that the militzary does not allow extremist to take over.

Precondition for that is that the military does not allow to get tackled by a democratically legitimated fundamentalist regime like in Turkey, where the AKP uses its freedom to neutralise the military and the High Court as the last guardians of the old Kemalistic order, serving as the last remaining obstacles to fundamentalism taking over Turkey completely. If something like that happens in Egypt as well, then Egypt will fall to the fundamentalists sooner or later. The Turkish military should have destroyed the AKP the very moment Erdoghan appeared back on stage, but did not do so for not putting weapon dleiveries from the West in danger. Hopefully, the Egyptian generals have learned from the Turkish example.

But that remains to be seen.

[Rockstar]

The only way for brotherhood to assume leadership is 60% of 90 + million population. And for that to happen, KSA and other islam proper nations would have to pay alot of money for these votes. We dont fall that easily. Rest assured, but be cautious.:arrgh!:


That's what King George III thought too.

[Gerald]

I am glad to escape the updates on this record, although this now, is very much optional, now begins the tough trip for Egypt, :yep:

[yubba]

So when is Obama going to step down ? He hears the cries of other people in other countries, not of his own:nope:

[Madox58]

I hope the very best for the future of Egypt.
I was last there in November of 1981.
That visit was a Dream Come True for me.
It's a memory that I hold very dear in my heart.

[Sailor Steve]

So when is Obama going to step down ? He hears the cries of other people in other countries, not of his own:nope:
http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a325/SailorSteve/obvious.jpg?t=1297487245

[Hottentot]

So when is Obama going to step down ? He hears the cries of other people in other countries, not of his own:nope:

Yay, yippee, hooray, let's turn the thread celebrating the end of 30 years of dictatorship into yet another "bash/celebrate Obama" thread, that's exactly what this place needs! More Obama threads for everyone! Who cares about the Egyptians anyway?

[commandosolo2009]

Thank you all for the wishes, and I hope the future is better for all of us, peace exists among us, and we remain as friends always. :salute:

[joea]

Thank you all for the wishes, and I hope the future is better for all of us, peace exists among us, and we remain as friends always. :salute:
Congratulations with all the worries for the future right now I am happy. Good luck to your country.

[Catfish]

Congratulations from Germany :DL

Just don't listen to our politicians ... ;)

Greetings,
Catfish

[Skybird]

Congratulations from Germany :DL

Just don't listen to our politicians ... ;)

Greetings,
Catfish
Don't listen to any politicians, ever. :03:

[Gerald]

The BBC's Jon Leyne in Cairo says that the army seems unsure what to do
Continue reading the main story
Fall of Mubarak

* Egypt's new era
* Repercussions in Mid-East
* Too early to celebrate?
* Mohamad Tantawi profile

There is a stand-off in Cairo's Tahrir Square as protesters who have camped there for 20 days thwart army efforts to clear the area.

Thousands more people have made their way to the square, the focal point of the uprising that led to President Hosni Mubarak's departure on Friday.

The army seems undecided on how to respond to the fresh influx, reports the BBC's Jon Leyne from the scene.

The military police chief has called for tents to be cleared from the area.

"We do not want any protesters to sit in the square after today," said Mohamed Ibrahim Moustafa Ali, the head of military police.

US President Obama earlier welcomed the new military leadership's pledge to work towards civilian rule.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12442270


Note; Update Record,13 February 2011 Last updated at 10:43 GMT

[tater]

If the MB play any role in a new government, I think the US should entirely eliminate aid to Egypt.

[commandosolo2009]

If the MB play any role in a new government, I think the US should entirely eliminate aid to Egypt.

Oh trust me, you wouldnt want to do that. MB wont take over. Debbie Schlussel's article regarding MB, is waay over-reacting. IDF can handle any illegal crossers from our country, whether the military facilitates their crossing, or if they're actually sneaking out. Israel wont have a nice day if MB assumes leadership in Egypt. Mubarak administration kept a leash on those guys, and you can imagine the fear that these dogs be cut loose. I think the military should expedite elections in the coming months instead of waiting till December, while people are still scared, and MBs influence low.


And please, relax but watch your backdoor.

[Gerald]

If this will be a reality that you suppose, many countries are, to cut off funds, thus affecting the civilian population hard.

[MH]

................ I think the military should expedite elections in the coming months instead of waiting till December, while people are still scared, and MBs influence low.


And please, relax but watch your backdoor.

That doesn't read to good.
That is unless those guys will be outlawed till next election or lose credibility in eyes of Egyptians .
Lets hope Egyptian government will know how to play it out.

[tater]

If this will be a reality that you suppose, many countries are, to cut off funds, thus affecting the civilian population hard.

If they give legitimacy to the MB I don't particularly care about the population.

Democracy is a "culture," not just the act of having an election. Democracy can produce undesirable governments, and can even elect a government contrary to the democracy itself. Given the penchant to elect theocrats, then dump the pretext of democracy in the region, disqualifying a group like the MB seems entirely reasonable.

[Jimbuna]

If they give legitimacy to the MB I don't particularly care about the population.

Democracy is a "culture," not just the act of having an election. Democracy can produce undesirable governments, and can even elect a government contrary to the democracy itself. Given the penchant to elect theocrats, then dump the pretext of democracy in the region, disqualifying a group like the MB seems entirely reasonable.

Good point and one I certainly agree with when it comes to the potential eventual consequences for the entire region should the MB garner more than the current 20-22% electorate thay are estimated to have.

[tater]

20% is huge given there are not organized parties on the same level. Run 10 parties, and 20% wins. I hope for the sake of Egypt they can work out a way to have a secular government that happens to be composed of Muslim people.

Any movement towards an "Islamic State" is always retrograde.

[Jimbuna]

I heard on BBC News that there are 26 registered/recognised political parties in Egypt :o

[Gerald]

If they give legitimacy to the MB I don't particularly care about the population.

Democracy is a "culture," not just the act of having an election. Democracy can produce undesirable governments, and can even elect a government contrary to the democracy itself. Given the penchant to elect theocrats, then dump the pretext of democracy in the region, disqualifying a group like the MB seems entirely reasonable. MB, is out of the picture, I think, but because the people who live in the country is the country itself, with a democratic side so it will not affect the civilian population there are other radical groups to be handled with care

[Gerald]

LONDON--While I watched back home in London the momentous events in Egypt last Friday, my Blackberry pinged.

The message seemed to sum up the whole story.

It started this way:

"Subject: It's done....

Dear Mr. Palkot,



While we have met before, I don't think that you know my name. I am the orthopedist that examined you in Al- Demerdash.

I hope that you are now in good health and that that terrible ordeal is history. Because tonight is a night for history......"

Following the attack on cameraman Olaf Wiig and myself, we were brought to the Al-Demerdash Hospital in Cairo where we were treated by doctors, including this man, Al-Moataz Bellah Youssef.

During our time there, the young man said little about the political upheaval but asked for my card with my e-mail address. Now I know why.

In the next passage he described his emotions surrounding the regime's fall and makes reference to January 25th, the first day of the uprising against the government:

"...I can't express my joy and ecstasy about what happened today. I wouldn't have imagined it. I was telling my mother yesterday (that is Thursday, when the rumors were flying that Mubarak will resign) that I expected someone to wake me up and tell me that we are still on the 24th of January.

After the 25th, Egypt never was and never will be the same. We are in a crossroads now, but we have come this far. I think we can clear any obstacle that gets in the way...."

At the hospital we were put under house arrest and then brought to the headquarters of the Secret Police for further "processing."

In the next paragraph, the doctor makes reference to this side of what he calls the "old Egypt":

"...You won't be seeing that old Egypt again. We will end the emergency law, the detention centers, the torture, the police thugs, everything...

Every bad thing that Mubarak did to dig his claws deeper into power will be undone. Just pray for us...."

While we had a taste of the bad people of the Mubarak regime, we met many more of the good people of Egypt, including this young man, who treated us with care and professionalism.

Here's how he closed his message to me:

"...I hope you can return soon.

I hope that I see you again in the new Egypt.

But not in a hospital this time!

Regards,


Al-Moataz Bellah Youssef"

I hope so too, Moataz.

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2011/02/14/egyptian-doctor-cared-fox-news-reporter-vows-old-egypt-gone/


Note: Update Record, Published February 14, 2011

[commandosolo2009]

Our media is focusing on showing acts of negativity by the MB. They're not treading carefully as I expect them to. They're organising a sit-in at Tahrir sq. demanding release of one of their figures. I hope he aint released. I view the emergency law as a coin with two faces, the keeping a leash on the MB (good face) and un-justified arrest of normal citizens for abuse of power (bad face).

There should be rules as to what criteria a Mb serves as grounds to his capture (calling the name of Allah, despise of Christians, inciting acts of violence, illegal possession of firearms and melee weapons, Racial discrimination, and of course, rape and murder charges.)


These ppl are pigs, and I hope the military are keeping tabs on the Mb leadership, (most importantly, middle right leadership of the military are heard more). Of course, Saudis and wahabi (all alike) will pump money to gather more crowd.

[Gerald]

There will be a turbulent time to come, so keep a cool head.

[commandosolo2009]

We'll steer her clear of those mines :arrgh!:

[Gerald]

We'll steer her clear of those mines :arrgh!: :yeah:

[tater]

We'll steer her clear of those mines :arrgh!:

You need some FM sonar :)

[Gerald]

Egypt's ruling military council has announced that work on reforming the country's constitution is to be completed in 10 days.

A committee led by a retired judge has been tasked with proposing legal changes, said the council.

It earlier suspended the current constitution, which was amended during ousted President Hosni Mubarak's tenure to strengthen his grip on power.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12466893

Note: Update,Record 15 February 2011 Last updated at 13:52 GMT

[Skybird]

I'm sure they just wanted to play.


http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2011/02/15/60minutes/main20032070.shtml

On Friday, Feb. 11, the day Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak stepped down, CBS chief foreign correspondent Lara Logan was covering the jubilation in Tahrir Square for a "60 Minutes" story when she and her team and their security were surrounded by a dangerous element amidst the celebration. It was a mob of more than 200 people whipped into frenzy.


In the crush of the mob, she was separated from her crew. She was surrounded and suffered a brutal and sustained sexual assault and beating before being saved by a group of women and an estimated 20 Egyptian soldiers. She reconnected with the CBS team, returned to her hotel and returned to the United States on the first flight the next morning. She is currently in the hospital recovering.


There will be no further comment from CBS News and correspondent Logan and her family respectfully request privacy at this time.

[August]

I understand that those women and soldiers risked their lives to save her. I wonder how many of us civilized westerners would do the same?

[Jimbuna]

Egypt's ruling military council has announced that work on reforming the country's constitution is to be completed in 10 days.

A committee led by a retired judge has been tasked with proposing legal changes, said the council.

It earlier suspended the current constitution, which was amended during ousted President Hosni Mubarak's tenure to strengthen his grip on power.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12466893

Note: Update,Record 15 February 2011 Last updated at 13:52 GMT

Thank you......Reuters

[commandosolo2009]

Egypt's ruling military council has announced that work on reforming the country's constitution is to be completed in 10 days.

A committee led by a retired judge has been tasked with proposing legal changes, said the council.

It earlier suspended the current constitution, which was amended during ousted President Hosni Mubarak's tenure to strengthen his grip on power.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12466893

Note: Update,Record 15 February 2011 Last updated at 13:52 GMT

It's time America and all other non-arab countries intervened. This so called committee is composed of members of the ****en brotherhood. This is the mine that America is about to step on. EU is about to step on. Apparently, General Tantawi (High Command) is showing tendencies to the brotherhood.

This must (if not already have) be passed to your decision makers. If the government is composed of brotherhood sect members, it certainly will not be in favour of Israel, or US, or EU for that matter. The **** has hit the fan. :down:

[commandosolo2009]

I'm sure they just wanted to play.

I'm so sorry she had to endure such experience. Those were thugs, and we protect our women with our own eyes. God punish all those involved and help ease her trauma.

[Gerald]

Problems Arise in Middle East.

The Muslim Brotherhood and killed protesters!


http://video.foxnews.com/v/4547566/problems-arise-in-middle-east/?playlist_id=86857




Note: Update Record,Feb 20, 2011

[Jimbuna]

Thank you.....Reuters

[Gerald]

Thank you.....Reuters Lucky to have Reuters....

[Gerald]

The Muslim Brotherhood is vying to become an official party in post-Mubarak Egypt. The conservative Islamist views of some of the group's members scare many in Egypt and the West, but, as Tim Whewell has been finding out, many members, particularly young activists, are much more moderate.

Along a chaotic, bustling working-class street in the Alexandria suburb of el-Wardian, wedged between furniture workshops and fruit-stalls, there is a narrow staircase down into a basement that you would not notice but for the pile of shoes on the pavement outside.

It leads down into a low-ceilinged, austere hall where there are men quietly praying or reading the Koran at most times of day.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/newsnight/9412967.stm


Note: Update Record,Thursday, 3 March 2011

[Jimbuna]

Once again....thank you Reuters :DL