Skybird
11-12-10, 11:34 AM
LINK (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-11721671)
The BBC has a nice essay, a summary on history showing that in 18 of the past 20 centuries, China has been the richest and wealthiest trading nation on Earth and thus not so much is emerging as a new player but is just claiming back the outstanding position it always has had and that the West has just somewhat interrupted for a short while, like an intermezzo. The essay also agrees with a former argument of mine and other authors that geography has been one of the major reasons for past developement and blossoming of culture - and their fall.
Another news today was in a German newspapper, saying that China has been started to actively encourage Chinese businessmen and companies to run their business in Yuan, which is massively followed by many. This resulted in a steep climb of yuan-run business contracts, the total number exloded by 160% in the last quarter, tendency rising. Analysts say they expect that this trend will not stop over the past 4-5 years, and that this is the warmning upo-run of China to establish it's yuan as the dominant business currency in Asia, and then worldwide. Then could also be the time, in 4-5 years, when they will make the Yuan available forfree trade. And then, so most observers agree, it will be game over for the status of the dollar much, much faster than even pessimists today predict. Mind you that inside OPEC also tendencies are growing to get rid of oil trade being done in dollars only.
I would say all this are indices for the chinese having run out of patience with the financial excesses of America and the Chinese savings in bonds being constantly devalued , and that they now start to mean serious business in cleaning up the dollar mess. They can count on the support of Brazil and India, and even Russia, which forms a formaidable and potent alliance on the issue. Possibly even OPEC will give support to them at some time in the future.
America still thinks in terms of military and weapons and military technology, when it comes to confronting rivals and enemies. As I see it, and like I argue since years, the really damaging threats lie outside the reach of military means. Seen that way, the impotence of the US president (any president in his place would have been unable to reach anything more!) during the G20 summit to succeed with his protectionistic demands, and the open attacks by Brazil, India, China, Japan, Germany, against the inflation caused by the Fed in order to devalue not only the dollar but also American debt, should worry Americans much much more than US internet media, at least the major sources that I skim by routine, seem to reflect.
The rare earth crisis (and it is a crisis, do not be mistaken), also illustrates the waining of influence of the West, and that China is switching into higher gears.
It's not whether or not I like it this or the other way, and it is not about sympoathies for this or that party. It'S about how we can adapt to the loss of influence and power that we cannot stop and that is unlikely to end anytime soon. We must compensate this loss in the economic field. What we need is plans and good recipes to acchieve that. What we do not need is to stick the heads into the sand and ignore reality. The world is changing. The balances shift towards Asia, at increasing pace. Will we react by threatening war and pulling all and everybody down with us, or will we stay paralysed by ignoring unwelcomed truths and realities, or will we find a way to economically adapt to our loss of dominance and influence and importance?
The BBC has a nice essay, a summary on history showing that in 18 of the past 20 centuries, China has been the richest and wealthiest trading nation on Earth and thus not so much is emerging as a new player but is just claiming back the outstanding position it always has had and that the West has just somewhat interrupted for a short while, like an intermezzo. The essay also agrees with a former argument of mine and other authors that geography has been one of the major reasons for past developement and blossoming of culture - and their fall.
Another news today was in a German newspapper, saying that China has been started to actively encourage Chinese businessmen and companies to run their business in Yuan, which is massively followed by many. This resulted in a steep climb of yuan-run business contracts, the total number exloded by 160% in the last quarter, tendency rising. Analysts say they expect that this trend will not stop over the past 4-5 years, and that this is the warmning upo-run of China to establish it's yuan as the dominant business currency in Asia, and then worldwide. Then could also be the time, in 4-5 years, when they will make the Yuan available forfree trade. And then, so most observers agree, it will be game over for the status of the dollar much, much faster than even pessimists today predict. Mind you that inside OPEC also tendencies are growing to get rid of oil trade being done in dollars only.
I would say all this are indices for the chinese having run out of patience with the financial excesses of America and the Chinese savings in bonds being constantly devalued , and that they now start to mean serious business in cleaning up the dollar mess. They can count on the support of Brazil and India, and even Russia, which forms a formaidable and potent alliance on the issue. Possibly even OPEC will give support to them at some time in the future.
America still thinks in terms of military and weapons and military technology, when it comes to confronting rivals and enemies. As I see it, and like I argue since years, the really damaging threats lie outside the reach of military means. Seen that way, the impotence of the US president (any president in his place would have been unable to reach anything more!) during the G20 summit to succeed with his protectionistic demands, and the open attacks by Brazil, India, China, Japan, Germany, against the inflation caused by the Fed in order to devalue not only the dollar but also American debt, should worry Americans much much more than US internet media, at least the major sources that I skim by routine, seem to reflect.
The rare earth crisis (and it is a crisis, do not be mistaken), also illustrates the waining of influence of the West, and that China is switching into higher gears.
It's not whether or not I like it this or the other way, and it is not about sympoathies for this or that party. It'S about how we can adapt to the loss of influence and power that we cannot stop and that is unlikely to end anytime soon. We must compensate this loss in the economic field. What we need is plans and good recipes to acchieve that. What we do not need is to stick the heads into the sand and ignore reality. The world is changing. The balances shift towards Asia, at increasing pace. Will we react by threatening war and pulling all and everybody down with us, or will we stay paralysed by ignoring unwelcomed truths and realities, or will we find a way to economically adapt to our loss of dominance and influence and importance?