South Korean ship fires on a ship

[SteamWake]

Evidently a South Korean ship has fired a torpedo at an un named vessel causing damage and loss of life.

Developing story.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKTRE62P2YQ20100326

Ship is sinking 100 souls on board.

http://www.vancouversun.com/entertainment/Korean+ship+sinking+with+board+North+attack+suspec ted/2729623/story.html

[motsivad]

Just saw this, early rumors are that the South Korean ship that is sinking was torpedoed by an unidentified craft. Hopefully the crew will swiftly get rescued

Was it by a North Korean sub. If so I think that'd be only the third aggressive sinking of a ship by a sub since WW2, and the first since the British sunk the General Belgrano almost 30 years ago.

[Raptor1]

So, as I understand it, a ROK naval vessel sinks mysteriously with 100 men onboard, and later another South Korean ship fires on a mysterious vessel to the north as a result?

This is suspicious even by DPRK standards...

[Oberon]

Interesting...very interesting... :hmmm:

Wonder what they're playing at...

[OneToughHerring]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/8589507.stm

Decent tonnage. :)

[SteamWake]

Not a joking matter :nope:

[Oberon]

Hopefully it'll stop at one ship and not spread to the mainland. The way things have been lately, I wouldn't put it past the idiots in Pyongyang to push their luck.

[Raptor1]

I notice they aren't mentioning exactly which and what kind of ship it is that sank...

By the tonnage listed I would suspect it some class of corvette.

[razark]

If so I think that'd be only the third aggressive sinking of a ship by a sub since WW2, and the first since the British sunk the General Belgrano almost 30 years ago.

Third?

What was the first?

[Oberon]

Third?

What was the first?

PNS Hangor sunk the INS Khukri during the Indo-Pakistani war in 1971.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PNS_Hangor_%28S131%29

[motsivad]

Third?

What was the first?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/INS_Khukri_%281958%29

[OneToughHerring]

Not a joking matter :nope:

Yep, sry.

[razark]

I notice they aren't mentioning exactly which and what kind of ship it is that sank...

By the tonnage listed I would suspect it some class of corvette.

CNN reports the name as Cheonan, but doesn't list any other information beyond the 1,500 tons.

@Oberon, motsivad:
Thank you, I was unaware of that incident.

[Skybird]

http://www.koreaherald.co.kr/NEWKHSITE/data/html_dir/2010/03/26/201003260083.asp

- SK navy patrol vessel
- 104 souls aboard
- rescue underway, 58 rescued so far
- mentioning just an "explosion" in the back of the ship, any idea of an attack so far thought about, but not confirmed
- took place in disputed waters that have seen clashes between North and South before
- SK opened radar-directed fire at an apparent flock of birds
- no abnormal military movements observed in the North

[motsivad]

My belief looking at all the circumstancial evidence is that it is a Pohang Class Corvette. This is purely an educated guess though.

pic here
http://www.defenseindustrydaily.com/images/SHIP_Corvette_ROKS_Namwon_Pohang-ASW_lg.jpg

[Oberon]

I've cruised the Korean and Chinese news sites, nothing happening on those, there was a bit of a diplomatic scuffle yesterday, nothing unusual, the DPRK accusing the ROK and US of trying to undermine its regime and threatening them with nuclear strikes, the usual.

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/world/2010-03/26/c_13225559.htm

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/36046278/ns/world_news-asiapacific/

Ah, here's something:

http://www.koreaherald.co.kr/NEWKHSITE/data/html_dir/2010/03/26/201003260083.asp

Turns out the suspicious radar object that was fired upon was a flock of birds, and it's possible that the explosion on board the ROK ship was caused by its own armaments, however at this early stage a DPRK attack cannot be ruled out. 58 crewmen so far have been rescued.


EDIT: Dammit Skybird!XD

[malkuth74]

This could be bad. Real bad if they find out the sinking was from a North attack.

Even worse since we have to fight.

[VirtualVikingX]

This is... strange?

http://www.korea-dpr.com/

http://www.korea-dpr.com/reunification.htm

Does North Korea have their own internet domain? Ie .nk ?

*checking*

[SteamWake]

This is... strange?

http://www.korea-dpr.com/

http://www.korea-dpr.com/reunification.htm

Does North Korea have their own internet domain? Ie .nk ?

*checking*

Both of those are 404 here.

[Linton]

They work fine for me.

[TarJak]

Same here. Their web designers are definately stuck in the early 1990's.:doh:

[SteamWake]

Probably a regional thing...

Drudge had this photo I dont know if its a stock photo or an actual account. (I posted it here instead of linking because I know some of you would blow a gasket at being directed to drudge :D )

http://i259.photobucket.com/albums/hh312/UlteriorModem/nkship.jpg

[XabbaRus]

Whats that NK fast attack boat that according to the USNI in Dangerous Waters was designed and built by a US company?

[CaptainHaplo]

Alot of this story doesn't wash......

For those who make a study of geo-politics, this just doesn't feel right. Not sure exactly what isn't right yet, but I don't see this as a likely NK action. Its possible yet, but given the culture in that part of the world, remember that "face" is a big deal to them, and coming out laying blame when misplaced is going to leave a lot of egg on someone's. Also - NK isn't acting like this was them - and given the disputed waters and the fact a couple of NK ships were sunk awhile back by the South navy, the NK propaganda machine would be all over this if it were a NK act.

[Skybird]

Possible that some sailor did not read the "No Smoking" sign near the arsenal.

Accident, or weapons malfunction, that's what I currently tend to put my bet on.

[Oberon]

I'd tend to lean with Skybird here, I wouldn't put it past the DPRK to try something like that, but in this case I don't think that they did. They'd probably be screaming that the ROK attacked their submarine and it's proof of the plot to bring down the DPRK right about now if it was them.

[darius359au]

seems like this could be a little more serious than first thought http://www.forbes.com/2010/03/26/south-korea-ship-asia-opinions-columnists-gordon-g-chang.html
if it turns out the ROK ship was sunk by the DPRK then you've ask what the hell were they thinking?

[TLAM Strike]

Whats that NK fast attack boat that according to the USNI in Dangerous Waters was designed and built by a US company?

That one is called a cluster osprey fast infiltration launch IIRC. The DPRK bought it and copied it in many diffrent models.

My new buddy Planeman cataloged several in his Guide to the North Korean Naval Power. This is his blog:
http://planeman-bluffersguide.blogspot.com/
He hasn't uploaded it there yet (he did it back in 2007). So you will have to google search it.

[XabbaRus]

That forbes article is pure speculation with no backing with facts or any comments from US or Korean sources.

Also the viewpoint of the author is not objective.

It does still stink though.

[baggygreen]

What has me more concerned that it wasn't a mere accident is the several reports that the boat exploded at the stern. I've certainly never seen a vessel which has ammunition stores at the rear of the ship, anywhere near the props. Happy to be wrong but its nothing I've ever seen before

I am deeply suspicious of NK, and it doesn't leave them any worse off than they already are. What better chance for the rogue state to test their mettle and tech than use it on a live target?

[Catfish]

Hello,
in german newspapers i read it was a north korean sub that fired a homing torp. at the south korean ship - which itself fired at a flock of sea gulls ? :doh:
It wasn't even the "Bild-Zeitung" (the german "Sun"), but a regional one (so much for creditability ahem).

Does N. Korea even have subs ?

Greetings,
Catfish

[Jimbuna]

This is 3 hours old:

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/world/2010-03/27/c_13227086.htm

Latest speculation is it could have been caused by a mine.

Not 100% certain but this could be her:



http://newsolio.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/dprk-300x118.jpg

[CaptainHaplo]

Good link Jim.

The area there is wired for likely wired for sound, so if there was northern involvement, it would be known.

A mine is possible, as well as a few other possible options (catastrophic engine failure as an example) could be in play here. If it was a mine, it will be interesting to see if it was a moored field, a torp mine (captor style) or one that just broke a mooring and floated off, ending up there.

[Skybird]

I thought of a mine yesterday, but they said the ship had an explosion close to the stern. But imagine a cruising boat or ship slamming into a mine - wouldn't one expect a passive mine hit taking place near the bow (highest probability), followed by the broadside - and with the stern being the least likely place to be hit by a passive mine?

Patrol craft, the Korean press said yesterday, that makes it probably a corvette or something in that class range, which then means it is capable of not moving too slow, even more so in an area where they have had some kind of drill and/or tensions earlier the day... or not?! The boat sitting still on the ocean, waiting to get hit at the stern by a drifting mine?

But maybe I think too much in WWII terms.

Due to the excercises they have had earlier the day, weapon malfunction really is a possibility relatively high on my list.

Edit:
A corvette indeed, Pohang-class. http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/rok/pohang.htm

[Jimbuna]

Good link Jim.

The area there is wired for likely wired for sound, so if there was northern involvement, it would be known.

A mine is possible, as well as a few other possible options (catastrophic engine failure as an example) could be in play here. If it was a mine, it will be interesting to see if it was a moored field, a torp mine (captor style) or one that just broke a mooring and floated off, ending up there.

Cheers :up:

I thought of a mine yesterday, but they said the ship had an explosion close to the stern. But imagine a cruising boat or ship slamming into a mine - wouldn't one expect a passive mine hit taking place near the bow (highest probability), followed by the broadside - and with the stern being the least likely place to be hit by a passive mine?

Patrol craft, the Korean press said yesterday, that makes it probably a corvette or something in that class range, which then means it is capable of not moving too slow, even more so in an area where they have had some kind of drill and/or tensions earlier the day... or not?! The boat sitting still on the ocean, waiting to get hit at the stern by a drifting mine?

But maybe I think too much in WWII terms.

Due to the excercises they have had earlier the day, weapon malfunction really is a possibility relatively high on my list.

If a boat is travelling at speed on the surface the bow would be at the highest point and the aft end (due to the propeelors 'digging in' to the water) would be the deepest part of the hull.

Now a mine floating a few metres below the surface would have more chance of coming into contact with the deepest part of the hull (the aft).

If it were of the captor type and was triggered by motion or sound, it could well head for the turbulance ie: the aft/propellor section.

What'sto say it wasn't a mine being carried/stored internally by the South Korean boat herself?

This is all pure speculation of course, it may not even have been due to a mine at all.

[Jimbuna]

This is definitely her:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pohang_class_corvette

http://img213.imageshack.us/img213/7263/cheonan.jpg (http://img213.imageshack.us/i/cheonan.jpg/)

[Raptor1]

Judging by the pennant number, I'd say that one is Sinseong.

A corvette by today's standards is nowhere near a minor vessel; if it turns out the north did this, it could turn out very nasty.

Do they have any info on whatever it was that was fired on afterwards?

[Oberon]

Judging by the pennant number, I'd say that one is Sinseong.

A corvette by today's standards is nowhere near a minor vessel; if it turns out the north did this, it could turn out very nasty.

Do they have any info on whatever it was that was fired on afterwards?

It was a suspicious radar contact that possibly turned out to be a flock of birds.

I think the ROK is playing this very tight and I don't blame them, if they try and blame the DPRK without evidence then the DPRK will cry bloody murder, well, even if they DO have evidence, the DPRK will deny it and cry bloody murder. I can't see it coming to any war, but it'll certainly mean interesting times for the next couple of months.

[Jimbuna]

Judging by the pennant number, I'd say that one is Sinseong.

A corvette by today's standards is nowhere near a minor vessel; if it turns out the north did this, it could turn out very nasty.

Do they have any info on whatever it was that was fired on afterwards?

I was referring to the class not the actual individual number...Cheonan was PCC-772 :DL

A Defence Official later said this may have been misidentified as a flock of birds on radar.

The band played 'Believe it if you like' :D

[The Bandit]

Not a genius here by any means and what follows is sure to be speculation but here goes. You can break down what happened into one of three things.
1. An attack.
2. Some kind of accident with the munitions
3. Some kind of propulsion or other shipboard accident.
One thing I will say from looking at the pictures of the ship, I would think that the aft 76mm and 40mm guns would probably have some kind of ammo storage located directly underneath them and this could account for the explosion. She also could have been carrying D/Cs and Mk46 torps. As Skybird already said you wouldn't really think of a mine hitting the rear of a ship but I guess it could happen. Now as far as an accident goes, its hard to say. Do you think it is possible that a turbine explosion could have caused something like this? Also from what I can see the diesel engines are located aft of the turbine so this could explain why they lost power. The only other thing I could thing of is as already mentioned, a torpedo. If the DPRK did fire a torpedo, it would probably be some kind of old Russian design, and it is very likely that it would have homed in on the prop noise from the ship, hitting at the stern. The Cheonan was one of the Po hang class that was ASW equipped so that she had Sonar. Also, from what I just saw on a video from Reuters ( http://news.yahoo.com/video/world-15749633/18842811 ) the ROK says they are going to try to raise the ship.
All this being said, I was very sorry to hear about this on the news, and I am still hoping to be hearing some good news about more ROK Sailors being found. That's what's important right now.

[Skybird]

Koreans now investigate allegations that the corvette has left harbour already with kind of a malfunction or a minor breach in the hull. Slobby maintenance is being mentioned.

Unidentified witnesses said the ship sank with a big hole in it's side hull.

[Skybird]

Koreans investigate allegations that the ship left harbour already with a defective side hull. Sloppy maintenance is being mentioned.

Unidentified witnesses said that when the ship sank it showed a huge hole in the side hull. I assume examination of thebreach can reveal whether the punctuation took place from outside into the inside, or from the inside towards the outside.

[SteamWake]

You know this whole 'flock of birds' thing has me scratching my head.

Surely todays technology can tell the difference from a flock of seagulls from an approaching threat.

Nah I dont by that story for a minute.

[CaptainHaplo]

Steamwake - depends on the band of radar. Some types - depending on wavelength, don't see some things. Others can see clouds (which is why weather radar works) .

I have a gut instinct right now - but no solid data. It could have been an accident, a mine or an intentional attack (the mine could have been ANYBODY's).

However, lets look at what we know. We know the ship fired shots - at something. What that something was is unknown - but the flock of birds is plausible - especially since youhave to realize that there is constant surveilance of that entire area by both sides. Heck - we don't even know if the shots were fired before or after the explosion. The idea of a aircraft getting in undetected and out again - while sinking the 'vette - just won't fly. Not to mention - if it was an aircraft - it would have had to use a ASM - and the damage to the ship is not consistent with an ASM strike. So an air attack is out. If the shots were fired BEFORE the explosion - then we have to ask WHY.

Options:

A - Training drill - resulting in an accidental explosion or other occurance that led to the sinking of the ship.
B - A possible threat was detected.

Now - of these which has the highest percentage? If a threat was detected - what was it? If this was due to a free floating or moored mine - the threat could only have been detected if the ship was actively looking for subsurface anomolies. So I doubt it was a mine if the shots were fired BEFORE the explosion. If it was a torp, then it could have been heard, resulting in radars (and every other possible sensor) going active and ANY unidentified target in the area being engaged immediately - thus a flock of birds showing on a scope getting shot at before any identification was done. *A captain with incoming isn't going to ask questions first - if its unknown - it isn't friendly - kill it*

However, if the firing came before the explosion - then its also very possible (and more likely) that the explosion was in some way related to the live firing.

The only way we could tell for sure that this was not related to live fire training accident would be if the firing came AFTER the explosion. This makes sense if we make the assumption that an explosion occurs, the captain - not knowing what the hell just happened - orders all systems energized and someone spots an unknown. Again - part of your ship just went boom - your highly likely to shoot first and ask questions later when your in a disputed zone where you know you could get shot at.

The keys to this is we don't know what kind of initial damage was done to the ship, how long it maintained power, etc. Was it capable after the explosion itself to energize its sensors and fire at any targets? Was power loss due to the explosion - or the subsequent flooding? At the least we know the ship was able to get off a distress signal.

Without the data to answer the above, we don't know what happened. But what we DO know points away from this being a deliberate attack by the North. Right now what is being released publicly makes this look like an accident of some sort.

*On the mine issue - anyone know if the Signaal PHS-32 has mine detection ability?

[Jimbuna]

Well I might as well resort to this

http://img46.imageshack.us/img46/2328/crysta121.gif

Conspiracy theories abound :hmmm:

[CaptainHaplo]

You couldn't be more right Jim....

Apparently the vessel that fired shots was not the ship that sank, but rather another vessel on patrol in the roughly the same area. That explains why there are 50+ survivors given the water temps. Yet this removes the likelyhood of it being a live fire excercise accident. Still could be a catastrophic malfunction. The ship has not sunk completely, and it may in fact be extremely salvageable - if they can keep it from going all the way under. The fact its capsized though doesn't make that easy.

[Jimbuna]

Does anyone know how deep the water is in that area? :hmmm:

[SteamWake]

Does anyone know how deep the water is in that area? :hmmm:

Deep enough that we will never hear the true story. At least it hasent escalated.

[nikimcbee]

I wonder if it could have been a mine? But, you are right SW, good thing this hasn't escalated.

[Jimbuna]

Deep enough that we will never hear the true story. At least it hasent escalated.

Rgr that matey http://www.psionguild.org/forums/images/smilies/wolfsmilies/thumbsup.gif

[Oberon]

Latest word seems to have it that the ship may well have split in two with the force of the explosion. Not unusual for a munitions detonation, the Hood split in two IIRC when her munitions compartment went up but still no real sense of what actually did her in out of the three possibilities that have already been outlined.

Some testimonies from the Captain and crew have been released on The Korea Herald:

http://www.koreaherald.co.kr/NEWKHSITE/data/html_dir/2010/03/29/201003290037.asp

http://www.koreaherald.co.kr/NEWKHSITE/data/html_dir/2010/03/29/201003290038.asp

[Fincuan]

Does anyone know how deep the water is in that area? :hmmm:

Shouldn't be deep at all. The Yellow Sea is pretty shallow in general, iirc the mean depth being around 40-50 meters and the deepest parts between 150 and 200 meters. I haven't seen the precise coordinates of the sinking site being published, but for example this (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/8591366.stm) BBC article says the water in the general area is pretty shallow. I've also seen other articles say the Koreans are prepering to send divers down to the wreck, so no doubt we'll soon learn what exactly happened.

[Jimbuna]

Shouldn't be deep at all. The Yellow Sea is pretty shallow in general, iirc the mean depth being around 40-50 meters and the deepest parts between 150 and 200 meters. I haven't seen the precise coordinates of the sinking site being published, but for example this (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/8591366.stm) BBC article says the water in the general area is pretty shallow. I've also seen other articles say the Koreans are prepering to send divers down to the wreck, so no doubt we'll soon learn what exactly happened.

That's what I suspected....now let's see if the NK try to interfere with the salvage/inspection operation.

[Oberon]

That's what I suspected....now let's see if the NK try to interfere with the salvage/inspection operation.

IIRC they use the area as a artillery testing range, so I wouldn't put it past them to lob a couple of shells over during the salvage/inspection op.

[Raptor1]

I thought it was in ROK territorial waters, are the DPRK allowed to randomly fire in there?

[Oberon]

I thought it was in ROK territorial waters, are the DPRK allowed to randomly fire in there?


http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/world/2010-02/19/content_9474912.htm

It's along the border they use, they stick to their side but play it close to the line.

[Raptor1]

Ah, should've figured the North Korean government is capable of something so unnessecarily idiotic...

[Oberon]

http://cache.gawker.com/assets/images/7/2009/07/kimjongil.jpg

"Don't be so sirry!"

[Castout]

Another picture of the ship, Cheonan

http://www.mysinchew.com/files/preview/292x300..korea_3.jpg


Ship hull is broken/split into two. The stern was the first to be gone beneath the waves.

If it was a mine what's the possibility of it striking the ship's stern?!

I would rule out an accident. It was either a conventional sea mine, a torpedo mine or a torpedo attack.
Somebody is playing a dangerous game . . .
I didn't imply it was definitely North Korea's doing though . . .but we can't help to think it's probably one of the prime suspects.

[TLAM Strike]

I wonder if it could have been a mine? But, you are right SW, good thing this hasn't escalated.

Then again there could be a DPRK sub on the bottom right now, or it could be reloading and waiting for another shot... :ping:

Another picture of the ship, Cheonan

http://www.mysinchew.com/files/preview/292x300..korea_3.jpg


Ship hull is broken/split into two. The stern was the first to be gone beneath the waves.

If it was a mine what's the possibility of it striking the ship's stern?!

I would rule out an accident. It was either a conventional sea mine, a torpedo mine or a torpedo attack.
Somebody is playing a dangerous game . . .
I didn't imply it was definitely North Korea's doing though . . .but we can't help to think it's probably one of the prime suspects.

It could hit the stern if it was an acoustic mine set off my the prop noise like the Russian UDM or PRC Mao-4 that the DPRK does have.

Or it could have snagged the mooring line dangling from a mine that got cut loose from its anchor. Line rapped around the screw and draged it right in to her stern.

Although this ROK FFL does have an aft 76mm it a round cooked off in that it could have wrecked the stern and sank her.

EDIT 'nother possablity the North does have some EM-52 rocket mines, they are acoustic triggered and very devistating...

[Jimbuna]

Oh wait...I can see an image appearing http://img46.imageshack.us/img46/2328/crysta121.gif

[CaptainHaplo]

Could have been a magnetic mine, a moored mine that broke a cable - coulda been an accident (the Korean newspaper had a snippet about improper stowage of DC's claimed by previous sailors), coulda been any number of things.

[Happy Times]

The survivors have told the explosion was external and lifted the ship up and broke it in two.
Narrows down the options.
No one wants to but taking down NK would be the right thing to do, it could take 20 years to wait for its internal collapse.

[Castout]

Warships just don't go exploding in half by accident.

Kursk was on a torpedo firing drill....but this Korean warship was not doing any dangerous or risky drill . . .

what if it was a US ship that exploded?

I wonder what the reaction might be?

--self censored line deleted--

I didn't imply it was definitely North Korea but it seemed like a torpedo attack and that paints a very suspicious light on North Korea. Could it be that a third party wish to paint a bad picture on North Korea? The answer to that would lead to subsequent conclusion.

[Skybird]

No one wants to but taking down NK would be the right thing to do, it could take 20 years to wait for its internal collapse.

Judging from the german, very mixed experiences, I wonder if South Korea is any better suited to deal with the economic and financial consequences of a reunification. South Koreans will be surprised at what it means to clean up the mess a failed state has left behind after half a century. Germany for sure has totally, fundamentally, absolutely underestimated the costs. Back then they made promises about blossoming landscapes within just a handful of years. Today we know that East germany for the most is the fastest failiung area in all Europe, and in growing rural areas but also minor and medium sized cities gets abandoned by young population.

[Castout]

Oh wait...I can see an image appearing http://img46.imageshack.us/img46/2328/crysta121.gif


Personally deleted by me

reason: might be felt insensitive to the sailors who fell victim in the incident.

[diver]

No one wants to but taking down NK would be the right thing to do, it could take 20 years to wait for its internal collapse.

20 years of peace is better than 20 days of the kind of war you propose.

It is easy to say from the relative safety of a computer desk in Finland that we should act now to fix the NK problem. But believe me there are plenty of people in the world (and on this forum) that do not want to go rattling any sabres until we know for certain what happened.

[OneToughHerring]

Now saying here that it may have been an old mine left from the Korean war era, or some other time. Makes you think though doesn't it? Some age old mine brings the situation to a point where some loony individuals clamour for a nuclear showdown. :-?

[Fincuan]

Loony individuals do what loony individuals do, and have done for ages. In this case the only loony individual whose opinion matters has remained silent so far, and the rest we can safely ignore. On the forums there's even tools for it :yeah:

[Dowly]

On the forums there's even tools for it :yeah:

:haha::haha:

[OneToughHerring]

Loony individuals do what loony individuals do, and have done for ages. In this case the only loony individual whose opinion matters has remained silent so far, and the rest we can safely ignore. On the forums there's even tools for it :yeah:

In this case the loony individuals whose opinion matters would be the leaders of SK and NK. Too bad there's no ignore button in real life.

[TLAM Strike]

Personally deleted by me

reason: might be felt insensitive to the sailors who fell victim in the incident.

I can still see that post. Just FWI

Now saying here that it may have been an old mine left from the Korean war era, or some other time. Makes you think though doesn't it? Some age old mine brings the situation to a point where some loony individuals clamour for a nuclear showdown. :-? Mine from WWI starts WWIII that is fought with the weapons that ended WWII. :damn:

On the forums there's even tools for it :yeah: Too bad we don't have these tools in real life... ;) We really should put R&D on that... :up:

[Castout]

Now saying here that it may have been an old mine left from the Korean war era, or some other time. Makes you think though doesn't it? Some age old mine brings the situation to a point where some loony individuals clamour for a nuclear showdown. :-?


Umm nobody is clamoring for nuclear war

But the last time the world checked Iraqi was attacked for just believed having possession of WMD :D. Now it's implied that Iraq was probably not going to be attacked if it really had in their possessions WMD.

To me it looked like a good kill though

But let's hope that both side could restrain themselves in the long run after all retaliation is an ugly word once received should be forgotten. After all it's only logical that we must assume that too a degree the government of South Korea knows better.

[Jimbuna]

I'd hate to see a military confrontation because of an old mine (presuming that is what it was)....these are being found from the last world war in European waters on an almost daily basis.

[TLAM Strike]

I'd hate to see a military confrontation because of an old mine (presuming that is what it was)....these are being found from the last world war in European waters on an almost daily basis. According to the South Korean government the last was found in 1984. These waters have to be extensively charted by both sides since they are so close to the DMZ, I find it hard to believe that the ROK/US forces haven't cleared them all since 1984.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100329/ap_on_re_as/as_skorea_ship_sinks

Its possible that it was an old mine from 1950 but I think the odds are better that it was recently planted.

[SteamWake]

Here is a newswire story that really doesent tell us anything new excpet for coverage on rescue efforts.

Seems a rescue diver has died and another injured.

http://apnews.myway.com/article/20100330/D9EOTQJ00.html

[XabbaRus]

I think even if it has been sunk by a newly laid mine or by submarine the ROK has it in their interests to downplay it at the moment.

ROK wants war no more than NK really wants war...however if it was a submarine attack it allows ROK to deal with NK quietly.

If it was an overt attack then all hell would be let loos and NK knows that and what it would bring.

[TLAM Strike]

Great... now US and ROK intel picked up a DPRK sub leaving port near where the ROK FFL was sunk.

http://english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2010/03/31/2010033101024.html

more info on the subsim main page... :ping:

[Jimbuna]

The mystery deepens :hmmm:

[Dowly]

Nah, dont buy it being a sub. I'm sure they triggered the explosion accidentally themselves and are just embarrased to say it.:hmmm:

[Platapus]

Nah, dont buy it being a sub. I'm sure they triggered the explosion accidentally themselves and are just embarrased to say it.:hmmm:


Navy Bean soup for lunch + careless cigarette = international cover up! :yep:

[Jimbuna]

Nah, dont buy it being a sub. I'm sure they triggered the explosion accidentally themselves and are just embarrased to say it.:hmmm:

I'm beginning to concur :hmmm:

[TLAM Strike]

The Korea Times website has posted this diagram...
http://img253.imageshack.us/img253/4049/100401p02birds650.jpg (http://img253.imageshack.us/i/100401p02birds650.jpg/)
http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/nation/2010/04/205_63520.html

Another article from the Korea Times suggests that a torpedo was more likely to have sunk the FFL.

http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/nation/2010/04/116_63550.html

The ministry said Thursday that there was an explosion measuring as powerful as about 1.5 on the Richter scale at the site where the Cheonan sank, citing a report from a state geological survey institute.

A magnitude 1.5 earthquake would equal 180 kilograms of TNT, according to experts. Some believe such an explosion might have been caused by a torpedo attack or sea mine.180 kg sounds awfully close to the 190 kg warhead of the PRC's ET-32 export torpedo. A Yu-3 torpedo or TEST-71 also comes close at 205 kg. Most mines I've read up on seem to have warheads smaller or significantly larger.

It should be noted that the Mk9 depth charges the ROK FFL carried were 113 kg weapons. Any of the other weapons they carried were much larger than 180 kg or much smaller.

[Oberon]

Interesting that neither the Cheonan or Sokcho heard any TIW though, unless the sonar environment is bad, the weather conditions weren't too brilliant I think, were they? How deep is that area? :hmmm:

[Jimbuna]

Does anyone know how deep the water is in that area? :hmmm:

Shouldn't be deep at all. The Yellow Sea is pretty shallow in general, iirc the mean depth being around 40-50 meters and the deepest parts between 150 and 200 meters. I haven't seen the precise coordinates of the sinking site being published, but for example this (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/8591366.stm) BBC article says the water in the general area is pretty shallow. I've also seen other articles say the Koreans are prepering to send divers down to the wreck, so no doubt we'll soon learn what exactly happened.

Interesting that neither the Cheonan or Sokcho heard any TIW though, unless the sonar environment is bad, the weather conditions weren't too brilliant I think, were they? How deep is that area? :hmmm:

It looks like anything between 40 and 200 metres.

[OneToughHerring]

Not sure if it's been mentioned but one diver lost his life diving to the wreck trying to find out if there were any survivors there. It's probably pretty deep, and the conditions for diving are bad with murky water, currents etc. Bit of a nightmare, the whole affair, really.

As for the whole torpedo vs. mine - thing, I think it's pretty likely that once the dust has settled the cause of the blast will be found out. The wreck is accessible, well fairly accessible, and the damage a torp would do vs. a mine is different enough that there shouldn't be any problems in settling that.

Edit. Here's a link to the diver dying - incident. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/8594226.stm

Edit. 2 Oh SteamWake already mentioned the incident. D'oh!

[Castout]

How deep is that area? :hmmm:


Cheonan sank in shallow water, 45 m deep to be exact

[TLAM Strike]

Interesting that neither the Cheonan or Sokcho heard any TIW though, unless the sonar environment is bad, the weather conditions weren't too brilliant I think, were they? How deep is that area? :hmmm: Any number of reason where there was no TIW. It could have been a swim out fish so no tale tale blast of high pressure air/water. It could have been in the ship's baffles (surface ships have them too) which would make sense if it was a wake homing or passive homing weapon. Maybe the sonar just didn't pick it up, the Po Hang class FSG only carries a modest hull mounted sonar much like the OHP class FFG.

[Castout]

Suspect line up:

P4 midget submarine
http://img25.imageshack.us/img25/8660/p4render01ik5.jpg


Yugo midget submarine
http://img9.imageshack.us/i/yugorender01dy6.jpg/
http://img9.imageshack.us/img9/8099/yugorender01dy6.jpg


Well the US seems to be working hard to soften up the South's reaction and to calm its ally with regard to this incident. I guess it still places much hope to the resumption of the North's denuclearization talk.

[TLAM Strike]

Hehe those look familiar Castout. ;) But don't forget my lattest work for the Suspect Line up The Sang O (Shark) class Midget Submarine.

http://www.subsim.com/radioroom/picture.php?albumid=47&pictureid=1025

[Happy Times]

Im surprised the ROK doesnt have underwater surveillance systems integrated with other surveillence installed in this area? They seem ideal and called for there.
Its offcourse possible they have and this is what led to the incident in the first place.:hmmm:

[TLAM Strike]

Im surprised the ROK doesnt have underwater surveillance systems integrated with other surveillence installed in this area? They seem ideal and called for there.
Its offcourse possible they have and this is what led to the incident in the first place.:hmmm: Might be worried that the DPRK would just destroy them in the first seconds of a war. A Il-28 could just drop a depth bomb on it or a diver could go out and slap a limpet mine on it and boom- gone. In peace time some DPRK trawler might snag it and give them a sonar system decades more advanced than what they got already. The ROK operates P-3s and S-2s which have tremendous range which in the small area the ROKN operates in equals huge loiter time that should give them sufficient motoring capability in the Yellow Sea. Plus the ROKN operates a number of submarines for monitoring the DPRK.

[Castout]

Hehe those look familiar Castout. ;) But don't forget my lattest work for the Suspect Line up The Sang O (Shark) class Midget Submarine.

http://www.subsim.com/radioroom/picture.php?albumid=47&pictureid=1025

:D Oh I forgot to mention that they are from the LWAMI modders.
Forgive me for failing to mention you. Great model btw.:salute:

We need that spherical wire frame model for unknown to be added to the suspect line up :haha:

[TLAM Strike]

We need that spherical wire frame model for unknown to be added to the suspect line up :haha:

... You had to say it didn't you... :O:

http://img193.imageshack.us/img193/1343/unknownsub.jpg (http://img193.imageshack.us/i/unknownsub.jpg/)

[Oberon]

Some pictures of the Cheonan as ROK teams move a part of her closer to the shore today:

http://i44.tinypic.com/24lmt8j.jpg

http://i43.tinypic.com/2ds1og6.jpg

Found on militaryphotos.net

[Oberon]

More from militaryphotos.net

http://i40.tinypic.com/jkizq9.jpg
http://i42.tinypic.com/f9qi5s.jpg
http://i44.tinypic.com/efquzn.jpg
http://i41.tinypic.com/30kq3bc.jpg

Salvage team members and rescue workers put a part of a sunken naval vessel on a barge after they lifted it with a giant crane, off Baengnyeongdo island near the maritime border with North Korea, northwest of Seoul April 15, 2010. South Korea's military began lifting on Thursday the stern of the naval ship in order to determine what caused a blast that sank it last month near a contested border with the North. The South's defence minister said this month that the 1,200-tonne Cheonan may have been hit by a North Korean torpedo, stoking concerns that the incident could start a conflict.

http://i40.tinypic.com/m9pt8y.jpg
http://i41.tinypic.com/1f9r3s.jpg

Officers check the stern of a sunken naval ship after salvage team members and rescue workers put a part of the vessel on a barge with a giant crane, off Baengnyeongdo island near the maritime border with North Korea, northwest of Seoul April 15, 2010.

[Jimbuna]

Great pics...keep em coming :up:

Shouldn't belong now before we get a clearer indication of the cause :hmmm:

[SteamWake]

Whats with the netting over the bow and that 'screen wall'.

Looks like their trying to conceal something.

[Dowly]

Whats with the netting over the bow and that 'screen wall'.

Looks like their trying to conceal something.

Death Ray. :yep:

[Happy Times]

Whats with the netting over the bow and that 'screen wall'.

Looks like their trying to conceal something.

Well we can see that it didnt work, clearly an external force caused that damage.
North Korea is really one sad bunch of gangsters.:nope:

Picture of the crew that died onboard.

http://www.militaryphotos.net/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=118795&d=1271405774

[TLAM Strike]

Looks like the detonation occurred amidships and not at the stern. Like someone put a fish right dead center. :ping:

[CaptainHaplo]

With the screening in place, there is no way to get a solid look at what happened to her. Remember your only getting one angle - you cant see if the initial force was in -> out or out <- in. Breaking in half twists the devil out of the break area - so there is no telling if what you see is due to the break or the explosion.

Again - don't jump to conclusions.

The screen is there for the purpose of making it impossible for a camera at distance to make out enough detail to know for sure.

[Marcantilan]

I couldn´t see the damage, even in this picture.

http://i44.tinypic.com/efquzn.jpg

I think the damage in the bow was probably caused when the ship hit the bottom. The other damage in the hull was maybe caused by pressure differences.

Also, a heavyweight torpedo could broke the little ship in two parts. The Koreans use the russian / soviet 53-65 21in torpedo. More than enough to make the corvette airborne. Where is that damage?

[CaptainHaplo]

Marcantilan - uhm... .thats not the bow they have covered -thats only the aft part of the ship - the forward part is apparently still under water. The Ship did break in half. If you look at the close up - the last picture - you can see part of a gun mounting on the deck - sloping to the side where the deck structure is gone.

Your only seeing about half the ship there - they don't make modern warships that short. :salute:

[TLAM Strike]

With the screening in place, there is no way to get a solid look at what happened to her. Remember your only getting one angle - you cant see if the initial force was in -> out or out <- in. Breaking in half twists the devil out of the break area - so there is no telling if what you see is due to the break or the explosion.

Again - don't jump to conclusions.

The screen is there for the purpose of making it impossible for a camera at distance to make out enough detail to know for sure.Well look at the deck, there is more deck left than keel. Either the explosion was internal and down or external and up. Most explosions would go up since the surrounding water would focus the blast that way.

Reminds me of the damage to the Sam Roberts where the ship was held together by the deck after a mine blast to her keel.

I couldn´t see the damage, even in this picture.

http://i44.tinypic.com/efquzn.jpg

I think the damage in the bow was probably caused when the ship hit the bottom. The other damage in the hull was maybe caused by pressure differences. What bow? do you mean the front of the wreck pictured? That is the center of the ship just aft of the funnel.

[Marcantilan]

jajaja, you are right!

I assumed that the ship was much shorter! My mistake!

Yes, half of the ship is still in the bottom...

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/a/a9/PCC-783.jpg/800px-PCC-783.jpg

[XabbaRus]

I thought it was the stern that went bang. That looks like a ship cut in half.

I for one do not think it was an accident.

[TLAM Strike]

jajaja, you are right!

I assumed that the ship was much shorter! My mistake!

Yes, half of the ship is still in the bottom...

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/a/a9/PCC-783.jpg/800px-PCC-783.jpg
I was going to post that picture with a notation on it but you beat me to it.

See the torpedo tubes aft the funnel? That is were the remains of the aft part of the ship start.

[CaptainHaplo]

When I first saw that shot - my first thought was WOW thats a shorty! Then it hit me too! So don't feel bad!

[Jimbuna]

I'm starting to get bad vibes about this....I can't see her shearing completely in half when she hit the seabed and I doubt divers would or could have cut her in half in such a short time :hmmm:

[razark]

I'm starting to get bad vibes about this....I can't see her shearing completely in half when she hit the seabed and I doubt divers would or could have cut her in half in such a short time :hmmm:

See here (http://www.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/asiapcf/04/16/south.korea.ship/index.html?hpt=T2)

A South Korean investigator said Friday that an "external explosion" was the most likely cause of the mysterious sinking of a naval ship in which 46 South Korean sailors were lost in tense waters off the North Korean coast.

[Neptunus Rex]

Mines blow holes in hulls.

Broke up right about mid ship. Right where a homing torpedo would hit, breaking the keel in the middle.

[Oberon]

It really doesn't look good. I'd be very surprised in that damage was caused by a mine. The ROK is in a very awkward position right now, they don't want to ramp up tensions, but they can't let this go unanswered. :damn:

[Jimbuna]

See here (http://www.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/asiapcf/04/16/south.korea.ship/index.html?hpt=T2)

I still think the speculation will come up with a variety of causes (as we have already seen)....I'm looking forward to a definitive report/conclusion.

I've little doubt the US Navy will have more than a few of they're experts on site to assist, advise and help determine just what happened.

[Oberon]

I still think the speculation will come up with a variety of causes (as we have already seen)....I'm looking forward to a definitive report/conclusion.

I've little doubt the US Navy will have more than a few of they're experts on site to assist, advise and help determine just what happened.

I think chances are they have a pretty definite conclusion by now...they're just trying to work out what to make public in order to prevent a war or the complete destablisation of the South Korean government.

[Jimbuna]

I think chances are they have a pretty definite conclusion by now...they're just trying to work out what to make public in order to prevent a war or the complete destablisation of the South Korean government.

I reckon your probably right :yep:

[OneToughHerring]

I think chances are they have a pretty definite conclusion by now...they're just trying to work out what to make public in order to prevent a war or the complete destablisation of the South Korean government.

Pfft, bollocks. If there were to be any kind of war we would have seen it already. It's just a one more in long line of tit-for-tat - exchanges between the two countries.

[Oberon]

Pfft, bollocks. If there were to be any kind of war we would have seen it already. It's just a one more in long line of tit-for-tat - exchanges between the two countries.

I meant more of a clamour from the public for some kind of retribution. If the ROK turns around and states that the DPRK sunk the Cheonan, there will be an uproar both in the ROK and abroad, the DPRK will go into turtle mode, hunker down and deny everything. Meanwhile there'll be protests in Seoul calling for an apology or some kind of reimbursement from the north which will be met with denials and warnings from the north that any kind of offensive actions against the north will be met by 'the total nuclear destruction of South Korea and its allies'. After all, Pyongyang has been more paranoid than usual lately, issuing a warning that any attempts to undermine the DPRKs political power would be met with nuclear destruction, that warning was given a day or two before the Cheonan went down IIRC.
It's not the sort of thing that would immediately lead to a war, not in itself, but as a factor in ongoing tensions on the peninsula, it could be the straw that breaks the camels back, and Seoul knows that.

And yes, we have seen this sort of thing a lot of times before, but, if I'm not mistaken, this is the biggest ship the DPRK has sunk (if they did sink it) since the end of the Korean war is it not?

[TLAM Strike]

And yes, we have seen this sort of thing a lot of times before, but, if I'm not mistaken, this is the biggest ship the DPRK has sunk (if they did sink it) since the end of the Korean war is it not? Biggest ship they have sunk Period. Note sure about our Allies and UN forces but the US only lost some mine sweepers in Korea.

Discounting of course the claim by Pyongyang that they bagged the USS Baltimore CA-68. :haha:

http://www.korean-war.com/USNavy/usnavyshipssunk.html

The North sank the patrol boat Chamsuri at the 2nd battle of Yeonpyeong in 2002. The PT was salvaged (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Battle_of_Yeonpyeong)

[Jimbuna]

Simply tell the bstids to........bring it on!!

[krashkart]

Simply tell the bstids to........bring it on!!

Heh. :)


This reminds me of an apartment building I once lived in. The North is like that rowdy neighbor upstairs, constantly stomping on the floor when South Korea tries to live a normal life. The US is sort of that neighbor down the hall that made friends with SK, telling NK from time to time that "I got my eye on him" - meaning leave him alone or I will hurt you.

South Korea doesn't have the option of renting a Uhaul, though. :DL

[CaptainHaplo]

Posted on the front page of subsim.....

http://dailycontributor.com/south-korean-military-report-navy-ship-sank-by-north-korean-torpedo/14194/

Thanks to Neal or whomever put it up there....

Next question - what happens next...

[Dowly]

Next question - what happens next...

I think south has too much at stake to do anything until they are 100% sure that it was an north sub that sank the ship.

[Raptor1]

Next question - what happens next...

Probably a fierce debate and a very harsh letter of complaint to the DPRK telling them how their actions were not very nice...

[Dowly]

Probably a fierce debate and a very harsh letter of complaint to the DPRK telling them how their actions were not very nice...

:haha::haha:

[Jimbuna]

Posted on the front page of subsim.....

http://dailycontributor.com/south-korean-military-report-navy-ship-sank-by-north-korean-torpedo/14194/

Thanks to Neal or whomever put it up there....

Next question - what happens next...

Mega pressure on NK if the evidence is irrefutable.

[Happy Times]

Mega pressure on NK if the evidence is irrefutable.

Pressure to do what?
They dont obviously care to be considered sane in their actions.

Do they have those party confrences like in China?:hmmm:

If so, sending the B-2s to get most of them in one hit would be nice.

[OneToughHerring]

Nothing's gonna happen, Nokia is in cahoots with China these days so advocating any kind of violence against China is sure to be picked up by the latest Echelons out there.

Then it's just a matter of seconds until the SWAT busts in...:o

[Jimbuna]

Pressure to do what?
They dont obviously care to be considered sane in their actions.

Do they have those party confrences like in China?:hmmm:

If so, sending the B-2s to get most of them in one hit would be nice.

Simple....we'll nuke Finland instead :DL

[TLAM Strike]

Mega pressure on NK if the evidence is irrefutable.

And do what? Sanctions? There are already extensive arms export/import sanctions against the DPRK. Cut food shipments? That gives the Communist government one more piece of propaganda to feed its populace... which is still starving despite the shipments of food from the west.

The DPRK is already an outlaw country, they simply have nothing to loose and everything to gain in negotiations.

[Happy Times]

Nothing's gonna happen, Nokia is in cahoots with China these days so advocating any kind of violence against China is sure to be picked up by the latest Echelons out there.

Then it's just a matter of seconds until the SWAT busts in...:o

Huh.

[Happy Times]

Simple....we'll nuke Finland instead :DL

Now would be a good time, last week we decided to build two more reactors.:yep:

[OneToughHerring]

Huh.

Don't mess with the big dudes, they'll get you eventually.

[Castout]

Sometimes some dwarves are playing big dudes and I don't mean NK . . .SCREW them and I meant to screw them for good.

[Happy Times]

This place is getting loonier and loonier every year.:yeah:

[Castout]

This place is getting loonier and loonier every year.:yeah:

Loonier? Here? Nah.


But some elites in Singapore yes they've definitely become loonier and loonier........
Please do read my blog btw.

[Happy Times]

loonier? Here? Nah.


But some elites in singapore yes they've definitely become loonier and loonier........
Please do read my blog btw.

I did, see a doctor!

[Castout]

I did, see a doctor!

That's very rude of you!:nope:

I don't have to I'm not sick the ones who are are those running Singapore. You haven't read anything don't you???! Bah another lamer. Or another coward who would gladly kow-towing to a corrupt man. You should move to Singapore! and bring your whole family with you too! Some cowards in Singapore are too afraid of me they had to lable me crazy in order to hide their crimes!!! It's DISGUSTING.





http://singaporedissident.blogspot.com/

North Korea and Singapore are both run by a family dynasty. The only difference is that while the first is a communist state the later is a fascist.

[Oberon]

Up the rest of her comes:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/8641468.stm

http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/nation/2010/04/116_64756.html

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/04/24/AR2010042400600.html

[Jimbuna]

Thanks for posting :up:

Now both pieces are salvaged it should be a lot easier and straightforward to ascertain the cause.

[CaptainHaplo]

Well after preliminary review - here is what the South Koreans are saying...

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2010/04/25/skorean-minister-torpedo-likely-sank-warship/?test=latestnews

Basically - it looks to have been a torpedo - but they haven't decided whose it was......... :doh:

[Castout]

South Korea has a good reason why they don't want to act harshly.

North Korea has a large number of artillery pieces pointed at South Korea's capital.

I believe that's their primary concern and scaring off investors would only come second.

But they obviously can't say they're afraid of North Korea's artillery. So it's only understandable that this wasn't mentioned and the economic consequences were put first instead.

[Oberon]

South Korea has a good reason why they don't want to act harshly.

North Korea has a large number of artillery pieces pointed at South Korea's capital.

I believe that's their primary concern and scaring off investors would only come second.

But they obviously can't say they're afraid of North Korea's artillery. So it's only understandable that this wasn't mentioned and the economic consequences were put first instead.

Bingo, and the North is pretty twitchy at the moment because of:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/36046278/

[TLAM Strike]

North Korea has a large number of artillery pieces pointed at South Korea's capital.
Not as many as you might think.

Worth a read:

http://www.militaryphotos.net/forums/showthread.php?162240-Bluffer-s-Guide-North-Korea-strikes!-%282009%29 (http://www.militaryphotos.net/forums/showthread.php?162240-Bluffer-s-Guide-North-Korea-strikes%21-%282009%29)

[Jimbuna]

Not as many as you might think.

Worth a read:

http://www.militaryphotos.net/forums/showthread.php?162240-Bluffer-s-Guide-North-Korea-strikes!-%282009%29

Very well wortht he read :yeah:

No doubt they'll be declaring war on Google Earth when they find out :DL

[Oberon]

Here we are, also from militaryphotos, I wondered when they'd appear:

http://i39.tinypic.com/jah0g9.jpg

http://i40.tinypic.com/2ns2lpe.jpg

http://i42.tinypic.com/66dna0.jpg

http://i42.tinypic.com/xtypv.jpg

http://img130.imageshack.us/img130/9384/attachmentub.jpg

http://www.france24.com/en/20100426-seoul-probes-nkorean-generals-promotion

[CaptainHaplo]

Yea - little doubt about this - something blew up directly under her from those pictures. Going to be interesting to see what response - if any - comes from this.

[breadcatcher101]

Yea - little doubt about this - something blew up directly under her from those pictures. Going to be interesting to see what response - if any - comes from this.

Well from the looks of those pictures that's only the half of it.

[Castout]

Not as many as you might think.



Their ballistic mobile launchers could prove lethal to population centers in the South. . . .with every one having a probability that it might carry nuclear warhead.

[CaptainHaplo]

The danger isn't nukes - there is still some question as to whether the "nuke" NK has is really even a nuke at all given the dispersal of radiation and strength. However, their chem and bio side is a real danger to the civilian population however.

[TLAM Strike]

Their ballistic mobile launchers could prove lethal to population centers in the South. . . .with every one having a probability that it might carry nuclear warhead.

Which is why the ROK purchased 48 PAC-2 launchers and the US keeps two Brigades of Patriots in Korea.

[TLAM Strike]

http://english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2010/04/26/2010042601408.html

According to this from the SUBSIM main page the two submarines that left base on the day of the attack were of the North Korean "Shark" class (AKA Sang O class). This sub class carries two torpedo tubes with 2 reloads.

http://img11.imageshack.us/img11/1606/120353467403.jpg

This is the larger of the two main classes of North Korea midget submarines. Here is the Database entry I wrote for them in LWAMI 3.10:

SANG-O CLASS MIDGET SUBMARINE

D: 256 tons surf./277 tons sub.
S: 7 kts surf./9 kts sub.
Dim: 35X3.6x6 m
Maximum Depth: 152M

ARMAMENT: 2 533mm torpedo tubes. 2-4 torpedoes or 8 mines.


ELECTRONICS:
Radar: Furuno I Band Search Radar
Sonar: Cylindrical array (Copy of 1950's vintage Soviet sonar)
EW: VHF wip antenna.

Crew: 25 incl. Commandos.

Machinery: 1 Diesel, 1 Electric motor. 1 5 blade propeller.

[Raptor1]

Their ballistic mobile launchers could prove lethal to population centers in the South. . . .with every one having a probability that it might carry nuclear warhead.

That is if North Korea has any warheads that could be fitted into one of the ballistic missiles. It's one thing to detonate a nuke that's sitting on the ground, it's quite another to fit it into a SRBM.

[Oberon]

A nuke would be one way to blast a gap through the DMZ defences though...particularly if you're not bothered about the lives of the soldiers marching through the fallout afterwards... :hmmm:

[Aramike]

A nuke would be one way to blast a gap through the DMZ defences though...particularly if you're not bothered about the lives of the soldiers marching through the fallout afterwards... :hmmm:...which we can be reasonable certain the NK's aren't...

[CaptainHaplo]

Its not just the DMZ. The reality is that NK - even if you removed the entire defensive line the South has - would still lose a war with the South. Sure, they would make some serious headway, but they would still end up losing. When it all was said and done, the North lacks a credible ability to wage a protracted conflict without help - and it WOULD be a protracted conflict because the South would not be on its own.

[Platapus]

Its not just the DMZ. The reality is that NK - even if you removed the entire defensive line the South has - would still lose a war with the South. Sure, they would make some serious headway, but they would still end up losing. When it all was said and done, the North lacks a credible ability to wage a protracted conflict without help - and it WOULD be a protracted conflict because the South would not be on its own.

Excellent points and all the more reason to doubt that North Korea will start any war (or re-engage the war since technically they are still at war).

It think that North Korea will continue to talk tough, but won't start anything.

Kim Jong Il and his military staff are neither insane nor stupid. :nope:

[joegrundman]

Which is why the ROK purchased 48 PAC-2 launchers and the US keeps two Brigades of Patriots in Korea.

and you think teh usa and sk are willing to bet a few ten thousand lives on the ability of these defenses to catch them all?

[Castout]

Kim Jong Il and his military staff are neither insane nor stupid. :nope:

Military staffs are irrelevant all things depend on Kim Jong Il and this man probably rely much on his ego like any other despot that of which is neither rational nor sensible.

That he isn't crazy is obvious but no way the man is going to respond in a sensible way.

[Raptor1]

A nuke would be one way to blast a gap through the DMZ defences though...particularly if you're not bothered about the lives of the soldiers marching through the fallout afterwards... :hmmm:

Any such attempt will render a breakthrough through the DMZ impossible. Even if tanks and infantry in APC's are able to pass through the radiation relatively intact (Assuming the South couldn't stop the breach in time, which I doubt), the supplies and those carrying it would not and the attack would quickly die down.

[Jimbuna]

Any such attempt will render a breakthrough through the DMZ impossible. Even if tanks and infantry in APC's are able to pass through the radiation relatively intact (Assuming the South couldn't stop the breach in time, which I doubt), the supplies and those carrying it would not and the attack would quickly die down.


That's a question/point I was going to raise...how would they be able to resupply in a war zone when they're not capable of feeding their population during peacetime?

I can't really see them stockpiling millions of tons of food, especially whilst keeping it secret from those that are starving.

[Oberon]

That's a question/point I was going to raise...how would they be able to resupply in a war zone when they're not capable of feeding their population during peacetime?

I can't really see them stockpiling millions of tons of food, especially whilst keeping it secret from those that are starving.

Individual units would take what they needed from towns and villages they'd pass through I'd imagine. I think also the reason why they can't feed their population is because all of the food goes to the military and elite, in case of war they'd push the farms harder and starve the population more and pillage the South as they moved.

[tater]

South Korea should make the claim that it was an OLD mine. Say WW2 vintage. Claim they've detected a bunch that must have come lose or something :)

Then they should start offing NK ships and subs quietly. When NK balks, they just say, "pesky mines! We'll help you try and mitigate them."

[Jimbuna]

Individual units would take what they needed from towns and villages they'd pass through I'd imagine. I think also the reason why they can't feed their population is because all of the food goes to the military and elite, in case of war they'd push the farms harder and starve the population more and pillage the South as they moved.

I'd have thought the SK would have a contingency plan 'taking everything with them as they withdrew'.

Not as bad as the Russians mind during WWII but something roughly similar.

South Korea should make the claim that it was an OLD mine. Say WW2 vintage. Claim they've detected a bunch that must have come lose or something :)

Then they should start offing NK ships and subs quietly. When NK balks, they just say, "pesky mines! We'll help you try and mitigate them."

Now that would be a game well worth watching :DL

[Raptor1]

I'd have thought the SK would have a contingency plan 'taking everything with them as they withdrew'.

Not as bad as the Russians mind during WWII but something roughly similar.


I very much doubt they'll do such a thing. Firstly, it's forbidden by the Geneva Convention. Secondly, While the effects of it in WWII were inevitable with the area being steamrolled back and forth between both sides, in other cases where such a strategy was tried it usually had long-term consequences. Wellington's retreat in 1810 to the Lines of Torres Vedras in the face of the French invasion is a good example of this; the retreat saw large-scale destruction of Portugese food and infrastructure in an attempt to starve Marshal Masséna's army at the gates of Lisbon, but it also had the effect of causing the deaths of several tens of thousands of civilians in the following winter (One of Portugal's coldest).

[TLAM Strike]

and you think teh usa and sk are willing to bet a few ten thousand lives on the ability of these defenses to catch them all? It only needs to catch the one with the nuke on it. While you've have probably read about mobile nuclear detectors at ports in the US to detect the emissions of neutron or gamma rays from the nuclear material in a warhead it is feasible that an interceptor missile could be equipped with a radiation detecting seeker to differentiate between a nuclear warhead, additional conventional warheads and decoys.

Also the North has to figure that with ground and sea based interceptors there would be a high attrition rate for the IRBMs meaning that if they chose to fire a nuclear missile as part of a strike there is a possibility that is would be shot down, not 100% but enough that the DPRK's few warheads might not reach their targets.

Its a pycological move much like in Desert Storm when the US publicized the [fictional] success of the Patriot.

[Castout]

The best defense is attack but that would risk retaliatory capital bombardment by the North which in return would necessitate equal bombardment of the North's capital(not that they have much).

The thing is the Cheonan may be sunk by the North but the South's population is not at risk with the North raising the concern whether military retaliatory action would be worth the risk of putting the entire South's population into a war situation.

It would be different had the attack in the first place targeted civilian population or infrastructure. That would probably justify an attack on the North immediately.

So the South is facing a dilemma that if they responded too soft the North and their own population would think the government as being too weak both not advantageous for the return of the North's nuclear talk while at the other spectrum if the South responded too hard they would risk Seoul bombardment which would be putting many many more South population into catastrophe.

So it's best to wait for Kim Jong Il regime to launch a couple of his big rockets over into South Korea before launching an all out attack on the North. If that happened I believe the South would have no choice but to attack the source of their threats in North Korea. :D

[TLAM Strike]

http://english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2010/04/30/2010043000459.html

As I suggested a while back, experts now think it was a PRC manufactured Yu-3 torpedo that sank Chenon. That narrows it down to the DPRK or the PRC as they are the only countries with ships armed with this make of torpedo that could have been operating in the region.

http://img25.imageshack.us/img25/356/yu3a.jpg

Specs:


Diameter: 533 mm
Length: 7.8 meter
Weight: 1.34 ton (1.2 ton for the training version)
Warhead: 205 kg
Guidance: active/passive acoustic homing
Propulsion: electrical, silver-zinc battery
Range: 13 km
Speed: 35 kt
Depth: up to 400 meters

[Happy Times]

It only needs to catch the one with the nuke on it. While you've have probably read about mobile nuclear detectors at ports in the US to detect the emissions of neutron or gamma rays from the nuclear material in a warhead it is feasible that an interceptor missile could be equipped with a radiation detecting seeker to differentiate between a nuclear warhead, additional conventional warheads and decoys.

Also the North has to figure that with ground and sea based interceptors there would be a high attrition rate for the IRBMs meaning that if they chose to fire a nuclear missile as part of a strike there is a possibility that is would be shot down, not 100% but enough that the DPRK's few warheads might not reach their targets.

Its a psychological move much like in Desert Storm when the US publicized the [fictional] success of the Patriot.

The North is becoming unstable within and the leaders are desperate to get something going for them.

They probably want a peace agreement that gives them compensations and promises of trade and investment.

The other option could be a surprise attack, to invade some important enough locations in the South, to get more bargaining chips.

Now they really could believe these as viable options, not understanding how unrealistic they are.

I understand the South and US want to avoid war and hope for the peaceful collapse, but that seems to be the most unlikely scenario.

If there is a conflict the North will loose off course, but the WMDs are a big question.

If North can deliver a nuke, chemical or biological warheads in the South or Japan killing thousands of civilians, what is the US response going to be?


If the US doesnt retaliate, South, Japan (that would be their third time hit and i wouldnt blame them) and every other country nuclear capable will see the bluff and get their own.

This scenario is what the South and US dont want but the actions they are not taking drive the events down exactly that path.

[CaptainHaplo]

Even if the North used WMD, the US response would not do so.

The reason here is that WMD policy for the US - for decades (and Obama has upheld this) is that we will use our weapons ONLY in defense (or MAD). Even with a WMD strike, conventional arms are sufficient to stop a Northern invasion. An attack such as you describe - targetting Japan for example, would be seen more as a terrorist act than a military action - because the North has no ability to invade Japan with boots on the ground. A move against the south, while being deadly, and followed up by military invasion from the the north, would still see the northern advance halted and then pushed back with conventional arms. NK simply lacks the military power to force a WMD response, regardless of whether it uses its own WMD's or not.

Simply put, when conventional weapons can do the job, you do not escalate the conflict by using (in the case of the US)) nukes.

[Happy Times]

Even if the North used WMD, the US response would not do so.

The reason here is that WMD policy for the US - for decades (and Obama has upheld this) is that we will use our weapons ONLY in defense (or MAD). Even with a WMD strike, conventional arms are sufficient to stop a Northern invasion. An attack such as you describe - targetting Japan for example, would be seen more as a terrorist act than a military action - because the North has no ability to invade Japan with boots on the ground. A move against the south, while being deadly, and followed up by military invasion from the the north, would still see the northern advance halted and then pushed back with conventional arms. NK simply lacks the military power to force a WMD response, regardless of whether it uses its own WMD's or not.

Simply put, when conventional weapons can do the job, you do not escalate the conflict by using (in the case of the US)) nukes.

So if NK would attack US with a Hiroshima strength nuke you wouldnt strike back with nukes because you can beat them conventionally?

Or is there different policies for allies under US nuclear umbrella and US itself?

[CaptainHaplo]

Honestly - I would have to say that even if we were hit on the continent by a hiroshima sized nuke (and its doubtful that NK even has something that big) - I doubt a nuke would be used in return.

Whether I agree with that policy or not isn't the question. Current doctrine just does not go "tit for tat" with nukes - and that is good as its rather irresponsible.

[Oberon]

You lob a nuke at the DPRK and China will go ape****, whether the DPRK used one first or not. Chances are, if the DPRK DID use a nuke obviously then it would isolate itself immediately in the international community (well...more than it already is) and chances are that Beijing would co-operate in a limited sense in the removal of Kim Jong-il or whoever is in charge at the moment, probably in return for a return to the status quo with a Chinese puppet in charge of the DPRK. Having the Chinese on side would go a long way to bringing any conflict to a swift close with minimal allied casualties.
I suspect, given the closeness between Tehran and Pyongyang, that Iran will act up if the DPRK does, to try and stretch the US's response between the two countries plus Afghanistan.

[Jimbuna]

Then they'd simply take both countries out....if that was the response it warranted.

personally I can see China taking control of NK before any escalation toward a possible worldwide nuclear exchange.

[Oberon]

Then they'd simply take both countries out....if that was the response it warranted.

personally I can see China taking control of NK before any escalation toward a possible worldwide nuclear exchange.

Tricky job, unless you mean by direct nuclear strike Jim, and even then I suspect that all it would do would be kill the civilians, all the brass would be underground or hidden somewhere. To attack and fight a ground war in Korea and Iran at the same time would require more resources than the US currently has. Heck, fighting a ground war in Iran alone would be a complete mess.

[Jimbuna]

Tricky job, unless you mean by direct nuclear strike Jim, and even then I suspect that all it would do would be kill the civilians, all the brass would be underground or hidden somewhere. To attack and fight a ground war in Korea and Iran at the same time would require more resources than the US currently has. Heck, fighting a ground war in Iran alone would be a complete mess.

I did indeed mean 'by direct nuclear strike' :DL

[Happy Times]

Usually every reporter and analyst about the Korean peninsula seems to have an different opinion like we do.
If this wasnt so serious this would be a fun guessing game.:hmmm:

Some links i found that might interest you guys, very mixed information as usual.

New Concerns About North Korea
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I3FIdp412wc

North Korea Says No Chaos After Currency Reform
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=99VlXc5fwxA

North Korea: the drumbeats of war
http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/south-korea/100427/north-korea-threat-north-korea-nuclear

Continued Chinese Financial Support of N. Korea Questioned
http://www1.voanews.com/english/news/asia/Beijing-Scholar-China-Will-Not-Bail-Out-North-Korea-89591277.html

China Will Give Kim Jong Il $10 Billion, Violating the Spirit and Letter of U.N. Security Council Resolutions It Voted For
http://www.freekorea.us/2010/02/16/china-will-give-kim-jong-il-10-billion-violating-the-spirit-and-letter-of-un-security-council-resolutions-it-voted-for/

[Oberon]

Aye, thanks for the links HT, I'll have a butchers at them tomorrow.
It is a big guessing game though, even some of the North Korean high command probably doesn't know what's going on. Is the 'Dear Leader' still alive? Or is the DPRK now being run by a junta of military generals?
Would the DPRK dare to cross the DMZ and risk war? Or is it trying to brinkmanship itself into a new set of concessions?
One thing is for certain, when this is officially announced as a torpedo attack by the North, which it'll have to be confirmed as either Chinese or DPRK attack (and I can't see the PLAN having anything to do with it), then there's going to be some serious tension between the two Koreas. The South Korean public is already crying out for vengeance, and I don't think tighter trade restrictions is going to do it for them... :hmmm:

[Oberon]

South Korea vows to retaliate:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/8656852.stm

They've just got to get a watertight (pardon the expression) case on whodunnit.

[raymond6751]

The Korean War started in 1950 and never really ended with a peace treaty.

N. Korea is one nation to be afraid of because they just don't care about the rest of the world.

[Raptor1]

The plot thickens, this could certainly lead to war (Or recommencement of hostilities) if it goes too far.

[Jimbuna]

The public announcement by the SK Defence Minister was probably meant more to appease the public and families of those who lost their lives.

I wonder if the next step will be to send a surface strike group as close as possible to the imaginary line in the water to try and temp the NK forces 'out' or an exercise of 'sanitisation' of the area via active sonar in the hope NK have a sub in the area regularly on station.

[darius359au]

This just gets better and better

http://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/explosive-traces-on-sunken-warship/story-e6frfku0-1225863063413?from=public_rss

like I said before ,if they did it (And its looking more and more likely),What was the North thinking?,Do they think it would give them a better bargain in the 6 nation negotiations?
All I can see its done is get the south very pi**ed off at them and and probably even be the last straw for the Chinese as well.

[TLAM Strike]

All I can see its done is get the south very pi**ed off at them and and probably even be the last straw for the Chinese as well.

Yes if this comes to a vote in the Security Council it could be a pivotal moment for the PRC, does it support the DPRK, or does it side with the rest of the world? Or does it abstain? I would bet on the later.

The UNSC could authorize "Korea Pt. II" The reason the last time the UN autherized action against the North was that the USSR was boycotting the UN and the Chinese delegation was from the ROC (Taiwan).

FWI: UNSC resoutions can be vetoed by one of the 5 permanent members even if the other 9 members vote in favor. Also two non-permanent members could vote no and cause the measure to fail. Realistic only the PRC or Russia would use a Veto in this situation.

The current Non-Permanet Members are:
Bosnia, Gabon, Nigeria, Brazil, Lebanon.

I don't know what their politics would place them in this situation.

[Jimbuna]

The plot thickens......much will depend on the stance the PRC take.

[TarJak]

I reckon they will abstain in any vote that calls for stronger action than sanctions above those already in place.

[Jimbuna]

I reckon they will abstain in any vote that calls for stronger action than sanctions above those already in place.

Did you mean 'abstain' or 'veto'?

[CaptainHaplo]

RDX presence confirmed...... they are taking their sweet time - they know the cause - but can't admit it outright because of the outrage - and not being willing to do anything about it.

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2010/05/09/experts-say-nkorean-sub-likely-sank-skorean-warship-seoul-wonders-caught-guard/

[TLAM Strike]

RDX presence confirmed...... they are taking their sweet time - they know the cause - but can't admit it outright because of the outrage - and not being willing to do anything about it.

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2010/05/09/experts-say-nkorean-sub-likely-sank-skorean-warship-seoul-wonders-caught-guard/

RDX proves nothing. Lots of explosives use RDX as a booster, several AQ terrorists have tried to use RDX. Hell I could make RDX out of Hexi blocks!

They are dragging their feet over this. :yep:

[darius359au]

I can see why the ROK government are being cautious and making sure of it ,because as soon as they officially announce it was the DPRK ,the South Korean public will go nuts -they'll want payback and probably get annoyed at the government if they don't give them something.

[Platapus]

There will be a public statement on this issue later tonight.

It will not be good news.

[Jimbuna]

There will be a public statement on this issue later tonight.

It will not be good news.

Any idea regarding the detail/content? :hmmm:

[Platapus]

Well, yes, but I think it will be better to wait for the public announcement.

[Dowly]

Any idea at what time that might be?

[Platapus]

There was talk about 2100 east coast time, but it is really up to the South Koreans.

[Dowly]

Ah, right.

[Skybird]

http://www.koreaherald.com/national/Detail.jsp?newsMLId=20100519000628

A torpedo that attacked a South Korean warship in March is very likely to have been manufactured in China, a high-ranking government official said on Wednesday.
(...)
Foreign Minister Yu Myung-hwan said that he was “certain” that Pyongyang was responsible for the Cheonan incident. His remarks came during a luncheon meeting with members of the European Chamber of Commerce here.

Another high-ranking government official said that the investigation team’s conclusion is that “the Cheonan sank after a North Korean torpedo attack, and this will be clearly stated in the investigation report.”



http://www.koreaherald.com/national/Detail.jsp?newsMLId=20100519000629


“And when there’s an announcement, we will work with South Korea and other countries in the region on the next steps regarding what happens in light of that investigation.”

He added that the allies would consider referring the issue to the U.N. Security Council.

That's frightening. :lol:

[Jimbuna]

You don't say :doh:

[Zachstar]

So its likely to be war then. Ok I guess now is a good time for the UN to act rather than later. The power in NK is desperate and they are getting more so every year.

[Castout]

Sad thing is the people of North Korea would suffer much in the event of war.

Their soldiers too. Heck everybody in North Korea is suffering under the regime except the high ranking elites.

But the South can't afford to act soft upon North Korea any longer even if it meant risking war with North Korea.

Sanction upon North Korea is more likely for South Korea to choose from than an invasion or military retaliation.

When that done the ball would move to North Korea as to how they would react to the imposed sanction and being a bully state they would likely respond militarily perhaps to provoke a war with the South. They may launch their short-mid range mobile based ballistic missiles to South as an act of provocation that's to be used to rally their people's support and China in the event of South Korea retaliation as an excuse that South Korea meant to invade the North and from then on it's anybody's guess.

[geetrue]

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE64J0KA20100520?type=politicsNews (http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE64J0KA20100520?type=politicsNews)



The U.S. government echoed Seoul's assertion that an international investigation had yielded proof that a North Korean submarine fired the torpedo that hit the South Korean ship in March, killing 46 sailors.

"It points overwhelmingly to the conclusion that North Korea was responsible for this attack," the White House said.

"This act of aggression is one more instance of North Korea's unacceptable behavior and defiance of international law," it said. "This attack constitutes a challenge to international peace and security and is a violation of the Armistice Agreement."


They even have the serial number of the torpedo ... whoever heard of a war like this?

[Skybird]

War coming up? No, will not happen, SK will not launch a fullscale attack on the North. Sanctions, sabre-rattling, symbolic mutual sea manouvers with the US Navy - the usual show.

Two theories I can imagine why the North staged the attck. First, and the one with the lower probability, they tracked the SK vessels from a sub, practiced some exercises during the opportunity, and then had a malfunction or a seaman making a mistake. Second, the theory with the higher probability, the North wanted to blackmail the South by reminding them how dangerous and unscrupulous the North is - and how worse it could become if they do not get more desperately needed economic aid, corn, etc.

A calculation that hopefully is not allowed to work.

If I were them, I would identify the one harbour were that sub must have come from, and then launch a strike against that facility, turning much of it into rubble - especially any present submarines. A shot with 5-20 Tomahawks, or an equivalent stealth bomber raid to avoid triggering too many military defence automatisms in the region - something in that range.

[Tribesman]

A shot with 5-20 Tomahawks, or an equivalent stealth bomber raid to avoid triggering too many military defence automatisms in the region - something in that range.
An interesting view.
So as Koreas cruise missiles are not yet ready that means an American attack which would be in keeping with the Mutual Defense Treaty.
But it raises the problem of N. Koreas own version of the mutual defense treaty it has with China.
So Sky was probably entirely right with his "- the usual show." line.

[Castout]

What is obvious is US reluctance to show a stronger face towards North Korea in the expectation it would be willing to come to terms with its nuclear pursuit on the diplomatic table.

Not to mention US economy is reeling under heavy burden added by prolong military engagement and occupation in Afghanistan and Iraq. It's clear that US govt doesn't want to see the possibility of another war.

This is the probable reason why South Korea seemed to hold back in the beginning of the incident of Cheonan sinking.

Unfortunately this brings a bad light unto United States because the reason put forward to invade Iraq was that it was suspected to have in its possession WMDs while never publicly known to have ever tested a nuclear weapon. On the other hand North Korea has had several nuclear weapon tests. By now of course everybody knows whether they like to admit it or not that WMD was not the reason why Iraq was attacked though being a realist I could understand why.

[baggygreen]

nothing will come of it, not even a small south K strike - they have too much to lose.

Noone in the west has the stomach for the type of warfare that NK would unleash, and NK knows that. 10,000 artillery pieces within range of seoul says a helluva lot of casualties. Then there is the small nuclear issue...

My concern is perhaps well well out to left field, but what if it was a deliberate move to pressure the US to shift forces there? Initially you'd think "why" but if NK and iran are in kahoots, which when you think about it isn't as far-fetched as you might think, then we're looking at a whole other ball game.

Suppose it was a deliberate move to escalate things, and so split the US forces - after all, the Pacific fleet covers the Indian ocean and persian gulf...

[Jimbuna]

Before anything tangible happens, if in fact it does....America will probably come to some agreement or understanding with China.

NK, Iran et al are bit part players....either country could be taken to task at a level of Americas time and choosing.

China are key to the above, both militarily and probably even financially.

[baggygreen]

What i don't understand, is the terminology being used in interviews on radio etc. "a terrible misunderstanding", "a breach of standard international rules"....


Deliberately torpedoing a ship of another nation isn't breaking the rules needing a slap on the wrist, it is an act of war! why the beating about the bush with the terminology?

[TLAM Strike]

Noone in the west has the stomach for the type of warfare that NK would unleash, and NK knows that. 10,000 artillery pieces within range of seoul says a helluva lot of casualties.

Not true.

Look at a post I made earlier in this thread with a link:

http://www.subsim.com/radioroom/showpost.php?p=1374007&postcount=144

[Schroeder]

What i don't understand, is the terminology being used in interviews on radio etc. "a terrible misunderstanding", "a breach of standard international rules"....


Deliberately torpedoing a ship of another nation isn't breaking the rules needing a slap on the wrist, it is an act of war! why the beating about the bush with the terminology?
Because no one in SK and the US wants another war.;)

[Jimbuna]

What i don't understand, is the terminology being used in interviews on radio etc. "a terrible misunderstanding", "a breach of standard international rules"....


Deliberately torpedoing a ship of another nation isn't breaking the rules needing a slap on the wrist, it is an act of war! why the beating about the bush with the terminology?

Because no one in SK and the US wants another war.;)

Nor will anyone want to be seen losing face on the matter.

[Tribesman]

Deliberately torpedoing a ship of another nation isn't breaking the rules needing a slap on the wrist, it is an act of war! why the beating about the bush with the terminology?
Look at the teminology you use to see why there is problems with terminology.
Given that there is a state of war between the nations what is so special about an act of war by one of them on another?
They have been doing "acts of war" against each other for 60 years now.

[geetrue]

The not so small fact of 46 sailors being murdered on the high seas has to be addressed by someone other than the UN.

What if NK machined gunned 46 soliders down at the border or sent shells into the nearby South Korean army camp or shot down a plane with 46 airmen on board?

Would there not be an immediate outcry deserving a strike back responce?

Tit for tit and tat for tat ... take out a NK ship of the same size with a South Korean submarine and then shake their heads ... "We no do that either" :cool:

[TLAM Strike]

Tit for tit and tat for tat ... take out a NK ship of the same size with a South Korean submarine and then shake their heads ... "We no do that either" :cool:

Good luck. The DPRK's navy is junk, they have perhaps 3 ships close to the size of that Frigate.

It would make sense to hit that sub base the Sang O sailed from.

[Jimbuna]

I've just heard the NK are threatening to go to war if any additional sanctions are imposed by the UN :nope:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia_pacific/10131683.stm


A North Korean defence spokesman said the country would "respond to reckless counter-measure with an all-out war of justice", the state KCNA news agency reported.

[Oberon]

Heh, then it will be war, because unless China vetos it (which they might), lets face it, what else can the UN do?
Call the DPRKs bluff...and then take cover and see what happens... :hmmm:

[Raptor1]

War...yeah, and then what? Neither the DPRK nor the ROK have the offensive capabilities to break through the DMZ in any amount of force at this point unless there's some major military buildup of which we're not aware.

[Oberon]

They'd probably try, fail and then threaten to nuke Seoul if they don't sign a peace treaty sending things back to the status quo, and then when said treaty is signed claim it as a victory. :damn:

[Jimbuna]

War...yeah, and then what? Neither the DPRK nor the ROK have the offensive capabilities to break through the DMZ in any amount of force at this point unless there's some major military buildup of which we're not aware.

Any future conflict may not be about occupying land....simply destroying everything upon it.

[Bilge_Rat]

What is obvious is US reluctance to show a stronger face towards North Korea in the expectation it would be willing to come to terms with its nuclear pursuit on the diplomatic table.

Not to mention US economy is reeling under heavy burden added by prolong military engagement and occupation in Afghanistan and Iraq. It's clear that US govt doesn't want to see the possibility of another war.

This is the probable reason why South Korea seemed to hold back in the beginning of the incident of Cheonan sinking.

Unfortunately this brings a bad light unto United States because the reason put forward to invade Iraq was that it was suspected to have in its possession WMDs while never publicly known to have ever tested a nuclear weapon. On the other hand North Korea has had several nuclear weapon tests. By now of course everybody knows whether they like to admit it or not that WMD was not the reason why Iraq was attacked though being a realist I could understand why.

Well let's face it, no one in the U.S. administration has the stomach to get into a shooting war with NK. U.S. ground troops are already overextended and there is no public support for it.

You can't use Iraq as a precedent since that was a reaction to 9\11 and I doubt anyone has any stomach for "regime change" considering how that one turned out. That was really a one-off thing.

17 sailors died in the bombing of the USS Cole and even though Sudan was suspected to be involved, the US did not go to war.

Unfortunately, there is no clear choice in a case like this.

[Oberon]

The ball is completely in the DPRKs court, it's up to them how they respond to what will be almost certain (Chinese veto aside) sanctions.

[Jimbuna]

If you check out the number of aggressive acts carried out by the NK over the years on my link @ #214....I think you'll agree it is about time they were shown in stern terms there are consequences for their actions.

[Raptor1]

Any future conflict may not be about occupying land....simply destroying everything upon it.

But in order to destroy something, it has to be in reach to destroy. North Korean artillery might be able to open up on targets near the border as soon as the war begins, but any sustained firing will quickly expose it's position to counter-battery fire and air interdiction, so it probably won't be viable for more than a few hours after the beginning of the war. Beyond that, I doubt the North has any ability to hurt targets in the ROK, unless their air force has taken to some dramatic modernization while I wasn't looking.

[Oberon]

I guess we'll find out within a few weeks. Things will probably move relatively quickly now...well...as quickly as things can move with the UN... :damn:

[geetrue]

Both sides has taken two months to decide their responce ...

We are the ones just now figuring it out.

Lets see now I would call up all of the reserves and make it look like war thus throwing a red flag with restraint of course.

Ought oh! This could work for either side ...

[Jimbuna]

But in order to destroy something, it has to be in reach to destroy. North Korean artillery might be able to open up on targets near the border as soon as the war begins, but any sustained firing will quickly expose it's position to counter-battery fire and air interdiction, so it probably won't be viable for more than a few hours after the beginning of the war. Beyond that, I doubt the North has any ability to hurt targets in the ROK, unless their air force has taken to some dramatic modernization while I wasn't looking.

I agree....but it might also bring the south to the bargaining table and drop some of the sanctions.

Always expect the unexpected....especially when your dealing with the mentally challenged that have a hold on some form of power.

[Castout]

I agree....but it might also bring the south to the bargaining table and drop some of the sanctions.

Always expect the unexpected....especially when your dealing with the mentally challenged that have a hold on some form of power.

The North are definitely not mentally challenged but they are a bully state which is what you get with any country run by a tyrant. At least North Korea is bully to her neighbor and not just some helpless civilians only.

Articles are writing that war is next to impossible but I'm betting there will be war in the end of this. It may take some time but things will get heat up and the North will get bombed.

South Korea and her allies may not be interested in war but war may be interested in them. :hmmm:.

The unexpected is what to be expected in life after all.

[Platapus]

I wonder if it could have truly been a rogue officer in the North Korean Military?

[TLAM Strike]

I wonder if it could have truly been a rogue officer in the North Korean Military?

Considering the level of indoctrination in North Korean society its doubtful it was some rogue sub skipper, could have been some commander in the government who ordered it possibly as some sort of power play. But like in most communist states the low level personnel are not encouraged to think for themselves.

[gimpy117]

so there really is a real chance of war?

wow. strange times. But i doubt it will happen. There's no point in blasting NK into the stone age...its already there. and why would SK want to jeopardize the prosperity they have earned over the years?

[Castout]

I wonder if it could have truly been a rogue officer in the North Korean Military?

You're kiddin right.

so there really is a real chance of war?

wow. strange times. But i doubt it will happen. There's no point in blasting NK into the stone age...its already there. and why would SK want to jeopardize the prosperity they have earned over the years?

Actually logic dictates that the possibility of war is next to impossible :DL.

But it will all depend on how NK would react to the expected sanction. In other words blasting NK doesn't depend on South Korea or her allies but it will depend on NK's reaction to the expected sanction.

China leadership is visiting South Korea and Japan to help reduce tension aka to help to lessen the severity of sanction on NK behalf.

[Zachstar]

There is no logic with the NK leadership.

You know what is scary? Even Democratic underground forums are talking military numbers about what happens if NK opens fire.

If i were the south I would have a flash action plan in place for the likely event in my view that NK attacked them to get the sanctions to spur the people into war. The leadership is desperate and they want to go out in a blaze of war.

[Castout]

There is no logic with the NK leadership.

...




There is after all they are a regime. And all regime has got its own values, principles and dogmas.

It's just that their logic are not the same kind of logic that most developed countries have. So their logic may seem weird and out of place to most people living in the free world.

I believe there was a strong reason behind Cheonan attack. Not simply as a retaliation to previous naval clash.

NK is passing on the leadership to Kim Jong Il youngest son.
A successful engagement of the enemy military asset could be used as a propaganda galore.

But again this is only a guess and my personal opinion.

One thing I'm sure South Korea and her allies would not start a war if there was going to be one. Any deterioration to war situation would only be attributed to FURTHER North Korea's provocation.

If the North resorts to threats of war or tried to escalate the situation by launching any missile to South Korea even if it was just one or two then South Korea and her allies would be given no choice except to protect the safety of their people in South Korea which would oblige a military response on the North.

NK may have won a tactical military victory by sinking the Cheonan but the strategic diplomatic victory lies with South Korea right now unless NK could prove beyond doubt otherwise that it wasn't them that sank Cheonan.

But then again this is only my 2 cents.

[Oberon]

Castout is correct IMHO to a point. Strongest of the logic of the DPRK is self-survival, I strongly suspect that they thought they would get away with sinking the Cheonan, not realising that parts of the torpedo would be found.
It's still not a hundred percent sure who is running the DPRK, whether it is still Kim or whether he is merely a figurehead now for a military council. The sinking of the Cheonan was most likely in response to the South and the US looking to actively undermine Kims regime where they can, a reminder if you will, that the North still has bite. It was supposed to be anonymous, it was supposed to be something that could be blamed on a rogue mine or an internal explosion, however the North did not realise that parts of the torpedo would still remain, nor that the ID of the torpedo could be worked out through forensics.
When news of the investigation reached the DPRK it must have set off a bit of a panic in its top commands, and somebody was sent to China, be it Kim himself or someone acting under the banner of Kim and using his train and motorcade, to reach an agreement perhaps to get China to veto any sanctions that would crop up after the investigations. Perhaps, also, in an attempt to back China into a corner, the DPRK also threatens war if any sanctions are passed, perhaps a little 'You know what you have to do' message to Beijing.
A complex and elaborate series of bluffs, business as usual on the Korean peninsula. No-one wants a war, the North cannot afford it and neither can the South. China could do without the bad publicity and the US could do without another war on its hands, however Pyongyang cannot back down and lose face, the only thing it can do is challenge and hope that Beijing will back it up and/or defuse the situation.

In short, what it boils down to right now, is whether the inevitable UN sanctions make it through without a Chinese or Russian veto (since Russia has a small but still concrete interest in the DPRK, although I'd suspect they'd be more inclined to Abstain rather than veto) and if it does get through and the DPRKs bluff is called...will they actually go the whole hog and follow through on their threats? In a way, they have to, they have no other choice but to back down and admit defeat...and that is not something that a leadership that is supposedly always right can afford to do, particularly not in an age where news can find its way through even the tightest of news filters.

That's my view anyway. The next few weeks will see how it pans out.

[Platapus]

I still don't understand what North Korea hoped to gain by taking this action.

I applaud Castout for his logical and well written post.

The North Korean government is neither insane nor suicidal. There had to be a reason why North Korea felt that it was necessary to sink this specific ship at this specific time.

It makes me wonder what exactly was the South Korean ship doing or carrying that would, in the eyes of the DPRK leadership necessitate its sinking?

[Seth8530]

I still don't understand what North Korea hoped to gain by taking this action.

I applaud Castout for his logical and well written post.

The North Korean government is neither insane nor suicidal. There had to be a reason why North Korea felt that it was necessary to sink this specific ship at this specific time.

It makes me wonder what exactly was the South Korean ship doing or carrying that would, in the eyes of the DPRK leadership necessitate its sinking?
T

That there is the golden question. The DPRK isnt stupid, there is a reason why the ship was sunk. From our point of view it would seem to be from the sheer hell of it.. But perhaps from the north's point of view... whether it be internal politics or for a propaganda piece it made sense.

[Molon Labe]

T

That there is the golden question. The DPRK isnt stupid, there is a reason why the ship was sunk. From our point of view it would seem to be from the sheer hell of it.. But perhaps from the north's point of view... whether it be internal politics or for a propaganda piece it made sense.

There's two theories out there that I know of. The first is just that it's simple retaliation for the incident last fall when a DPRK gunboat crossed the NLL and was turned back with gunfire; at least one sailor is believed to have been killed.

The other is that Kim Jong-Il is concerned about his succession, and needs his rather unaccomplished son to have some kind of reputation for leadership. If a limited war breaks out, when the South ends the campaign Kim can claim victory and credit his son's military brilliance. EDIT: I heard of this from One Free Korea (http://www.freekorea.us/2010/04/17/avoiding-the-next-korean-war/), and here is the segment so you can read it in the original author's words:


In contrast to the risk that a limited war would demoralize North Korea’s armed forces and population, we must balance the risk that a limited war is actually the very outcome that Kim Jong Il and Kim Jong Eun want most. Imagine yourself as Kim Jong Il today — your nation’s long-moribund economy may have starved a million or so of your most expendable subjects, but by keeping the secret police well-fed, blaming the troubles on American sanctions, and characterizing the arrival of international food aid as the payoff for your masterful act of nuclear extortion, you muddled through. Despite widespread discontent, the loss of much control over the food supply, and even a rumored mutiny (http://www.freekorea.us/2007/03/06/can-they-do-it-a-brief-history-of-resistance-to-the-north-korean-regime/) by a corps-level army unit, the system defied the predictions of foreign experts and held. Now you’re under unprecedented pressure from international financial sanctions and have lost the no-questioned-asked, unmonitored humanitarian aid that helped you keep the army and your party minions fed. The “wavering” and “hostile” portions (http://www.brookings.edu/testimony/2003/0605northkorea_oh.aspx) of your civilian population no longer depend on the state’s rations and rely on capitalists markets to earn an independent living. Your recent desperate effort to confiscate the wealth of a nascent middle class and regain control over the food supply was a fiasco that caused more open public anger — and even some rioting — than at any time in North Korean history (there is even some empirical evidence to support this). Your subjects appear unwilling to blame the Americans this time; they’re holding your government responsible, and shooting a few scapegoats won’t restore their confidence in you. All of the crises you’d slogged through for the duration of your misrule have reached a critical phase. The world is closing in on you.
Worse, you’re dying, and in the only way that really matters, you’re dying intestate. Your eldest, the natural successor under traditional Korean concepts of primogeniture, is too corrupted by foreign influences, and besides which, starving people aren’t going to give unquestioned devotion to Jabba the Kim (http://freekorea.us/2007/02/03/diverted-n-korean-food-aid-traced-to-single-recipient/). Your second son has all the manly command presence (http://www.freekorea.us/?p=1491) of Richard Simmons and performed poorly when tested in a leadership position. Your third son (http://www.freekorea.us/2009/01/15/meet-the-new-boss-kim-jong-il-reportedly-names-kim-jong-un-as-successor/) has the necessary DSM-IV diagnosis to be a proper successor, but he’s just 27 years old, and lacks the experience or the cred to survive (much less rule) in that octagenarian vipers’ nest known as the National Defense Commission. If you want your legacy to outlast you, you need to find a way for him to “make his bones,” and fast. In a society where every citizen is inculcated with the ideology of war, fearlessness, and sacrifice, a “limited” war is precisely the thing to legitimize your successor and to change the topic of national conversation to anything but the hardship that your misrule has caused.
Which is to say, South Korean military “retaliation” would be anything but: because Kim Jong Il knows that South Korea will want to avoid all-out war as much as he does, he would be able to cast almost any outcome to a limited war in terms that would consolidate and legitimize a transfer of power from the father to the son. Without such a war, and given the current mood among North Koreans, it seems doubtful that such a transition would have the Mandate of Heaven.

[Jimbuna]

Very interesting theory (the second one) http://www.psionguild.org/forums/images/smilies/wolfsmilies/thumbsup.gif

[Castout]

Castout is correct IMHO to a point. Strongest of the logic of the DPRK is self-survival,


You are absolutely right. Cheonan was sunk for the existential thing of NK(done more due to internal politics than anything else). It was a politically motivated action done for the good of the succession.




and somebody was sent to China, be it Kim himself or someone acting under the banner of Kim and using his train and motorcade, to reach an agreement perhaps to get China to veto any sanctions that would crop up after the investigations.


It was Kim himself already expecting a sanction I guess he visited China to get China either to veto or to mediate or help in the event of full scale war. China leadership are expected to visit Japan and South Korea I guess to soften the severity of sanction with the offer of some kind of concession from Mr Kim.


A complex and elaborate series of bluffs, business as usual on the Korean peninsula. No-one wants a war, the North cannot afford it and neither can the South. China could do without the bad publicity and the US could do without another war on its hands, however Pyongyang cannot back down and lose face, the only thing it can do is challenge and hope that Beijing will back it up and/or defuse the situation.

NK doesn't want war too that is obvious. Their leadership have been degraded to only care about staying in power. In other words war doesn't benefit their existential thing especially if they lost. They just wanted to sink a ship, used it as a propaganda galore and hope things will calm down.

They are gambling on their nuclear deterrence card.


....although I'd suspect they'd be more inclined to Abstain rather than veto)


yea I suspect Beijing will abstain too. Not sure about Russia though. Russia could be key.( I don't know how the relationship between NK and Russia)
But Russia is the least country in the world that would care about its international image while China wants to build up their international image I guess as face thing is important to Chinese in general..



and if it does get through and the DPRKs bluff is called...will they actually go the whole hog and follow through on their threats? In a way, they have to, they have no other choice but to back down and admit defeat...and that is not something that a leadership that is supposedly always right can afford to do, particularly not in an age where news can find its way through even the tightest of news filters.
That's my view anyway. The next few weeks will see how it pans out.

The ball is theirs once sanction is passed.:hmmm:


All in all my source made me believe war is a real possibility. North Korea is not known to be able to accept punitive action gracefully. The bully can't accept itself bullied(though it's a punitive action for its rogue action).

[Zachstar]

North Korea steps closer to war

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/TOE64N04U.htm

SEOUL, May 24 (Reuters) - North Korea threatened on Monday to fire at South Korean equipment if it is set up at their heavily armed border to broadcast anti-Pyongyang messages, and vowed to take stronger measures if Seoul escalated tensions.

South Korea isn't going to wait for orders while Seoul gets shelled there is little doubt in my mind if artillery spotting radar picks up incoming shells counterbattery would happen within minutes.

Very little that can be done at this point in my opinion. A pre emptive strike is not an option the people think their leaders are the equivalent of gods. A million military followed by untold numbers of armed citizens would mean we would have to comit to the largest slaughter of human beings since world war two. That would leave two countries in the biggest humanitarian crisis in history. Killing the leaders now would not only drive them to madness even further but could cause china not to enter the war on our side which is the only way a military invasion of North Korea is possible as their border is not nearly as defended.

[Raptor1]

and vowed to take stronger measures if Seoul escalated tensions.


They're the ones to talk...

[Zachstar]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/world/asia_pacific/10144059.stm

Full stop of trade or access to SKs sea lanes. NKs huge dependence on food from the south means that many a mouth will go hungry soon enough. Also its noted that any further attack by North Korea would be met by a military response.

not looking good for peace...

[Castout]

International sanction is not yet discussed and implemented.

It hasn't been brought to the UN.

Now I doubt SK will try to push for international sanction very hard and instead will settle for unilateral South Korea imposed sanction.

SK bark loud now too loud indeed that made me to doubt whether they're serious in trying to get Intl sanction.

[Zachstar]

Again thats assuming NK is sane.. Its not they said flat out they will fire if the loudspeakers are deployed. War over loudspeakers...

If it were the middle east I would say yes the back and forth than suddenly everyone moves on. But too much points to NK wanting war by a desperate ruling elete that fears the pro SK and china elements that could take over and would rather die in a blaze of hatred first.

[Jimbuna]

I applaud the action taken by SK, obviously I wouln't want to see the situation deteriorate to a state of armed conflict/war but something had to be done by somebody to this NK regime.

The only way to counter a bully is to meet it with a strong and determined set of counter measures.

I still maintain much depends on the US reaching a clear level of understanding with China over this issue.

[SteamWake]

While the UN stutters hems and haws...


US military told to get ready


http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/37309788/ns/world_news-asiapacific/

[Skybird]

That UN thing will bring nothing.

Currently, the sharpest weapon short of a military reaction or war (additionally to a total trading stop, and pointing all unlocked guns at them) would be - to remove all cameras and journalists from Korea, and not giving NK a single minute of TV broadcasting. Not one single headline in any newspaper. No article, no essay, no commenting. Not even a single three-liner on the last page of any regional paper nobody ever has heared of. No official reaction. No nothing. No strong speeches from the south, no official comment, no secret negotiations going on behind the diplomatic stage. NOTHING. Strangling their propaganda completely that way, making it simply disappearing from everybody's radar screen outside NK's borders. Let people do not realise that NK even does exist. Let it's hatefilled verbal sermons just puff out in a completly silent empty void. So that people not only ignore NK - but even do not know anymore that it is there. Do not even pay any attention at all to relief funds and NGOs and aid organsiations wanting to bring NK back to the mind of the world - silence these as well, so that nothing, nothing relates, reminds, points, refers to NK at all.

And blow everything up that moves beyond the border, of course. And in case of such incidents - not giving them any attention in public and media as well.

BTW, that would be my best advise for dealing with the Israeli-Palestine conflict as well: withdraw all, really all foreign NGOs and foreign relief organisations and all reporters and media as well (both the pro-Israeli and the pro-palestinian media), completely, totally ignore the place and issue alltogether, refusing to pay even one second of attention to it all (and I aim this at both sides).

We all get manipulated on several levels when paying attention to these things in the media. But neither must we like it, nor must we cooperate with the intention behind the manipulation. We can reject it. By right our attention-paying - we actively help to keep many of such conflicts alive, and assist many rogues to stay in power.

[Oberon]

The drumbeat is getting faster alright. I agree that nothing will come of the UN, but it will be interesting to see how each Security Council member votes on this, Russia and China particularly.
Beijing is torn between a rock and a hard place at the moment, on one hand they want to maintain their international image and be seen as 'good guys' but on the other they are the DPRKs only real allies and are basically the hand on the end of the leash of the out of control dog.
I think the question on everyones lips at the moment is:

"Will the DPRK follow through with its threats?"

And that, is something that only time will tell. In the meantime though, all that can be done is to prepare for the worst.
I'm going to have a read through of that 'North Korean Bluffers guide' again I think. :yep:

[TLAM Strike]

Planeman has posted some images of the salvaged torpedo on his blog...

http://planeman-bluffersguide.blogspot.com/2010/05/north-korean-sub-attack-details-start.html

[tater]

Presumably this was done by a sub.

Deprive NK of her subs. Follow them out of port, then quietly sink them, saying nothing at all. NK sub leaves port, NK sub disappears. It's not like they'll even know where to look for the wreckage.

[Aramike]

Presumably this was done by a sub.

Deprive NK of her subs. Follow them out of port, then quietly sink them, saying nothing at all. NK sub leaves port, NK sub disappears. It's not like they'll even know where to look for the wreckage.Well said. :salute: