Malaysian Airlines MH317

[TarJak]

http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2014-0...-today/5629456

International investigation team is having trouble getting into the crash zone due to fighting in the area. I doubt the rebels are keen on letting anyone near it that might find evidence of their involvement.

[Dmitry Markov]

Why rebels? It's Kiev's forces that are advancing - so it might be Kiev's "authorities" want to get there first before something unpleasant to them wasn't found

[Dmitry Markov]

Just you wait couple of days for Nazi-guards to come to the site on the Grad salvo distance. There would be couple of Grad or Smerch salvos to the crash site followed by the words that either it did Russia or it was inevitable as there were rebels holding that place trying to hide the truth. And after a couple of salvos from those systems nobody would never find anything.

[kranz]

Originally Posted by Dmitry Markov

Why rebels? It's Kiev's forces that are advancing - so it might be Kiev's "authorities" want to get there first before something unpleasant to them wasn't found

tell me, are you:
a)skybird's second account?
b)a brainwashed russian?
c)a troll?

[Jimbuna]

The downing of the Malaysia Airlines jet in Ukraine may be a "war crime", the UN's human rights chief says.

A bit of an understatement

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-28520813

[TarJak]

Originally Posted by Dmitry Markov

Why rebels? It's Kiev's forces that are advancing - so it might be Kiev's "authorities" want to get there first before something unpleasant to them wasn't found

Could be either. I frankly don't care.

[Skybird]

A crime as well inevitably include the understanding that the accused side wanted to commit the act of crime against the target of the crime intentionally, and knowingly.

I heavily doubt that the rebels or the Russians intentionally wanted to shoot down a foreign airliner full of foreign civilians. They know the bad looks they would get from the world in advance.

If it were an intentional shooting at a foirtewign civilian airliner and the shooter knew it, than in fact Kiev would have had the best chances to assume they could get somehting positive form thzat - bvy blamin g it on the rebels. This recipe would not have worked so well if the rebels or Russians did it and wanted to accuse Kiev, considering the state of things with Russia and the global opinion.

I doubt that it is by chance that the UN now joins the rethorics blame game. I also doubt that right at this time that court fionds its verdict and announces it that Russia shozuld pay 50 billion in compensations to former Yukos owners. The timing and the effect of that (if Russia would obey that ruling ) too obviously aims at supporting the new attempt to bring Russia under more fiscal pressure.

Kiev's army apparently currently tries to storm all cities around the crash site to bring the site under its control that way.

[TarJak]

http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2014-0...antage/5641204

Nice commentary on the unintended effects of getting Moscow to reduce support for the separatists in an attempt to get investigation of the air disaster underway.

[Bilge_Rat]

hmm, according to the UN, 730 000 refugees from East Ukraine have crossed over into Russia:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/ukraine...ting-1.2727574

730 000 represents 11% of the population of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblast.

Apparently more refugees are seeking refuge in Russia then in Western Ukraine.

Now, here is what I don't get. According to the western media, USA, EU, etc., all the rebels in East Ukraine are Russians or on the Russian payroll and the local population is just waiting to be liberated by the Ukrainian military.

If that is true, why are more/most civilians seeking refuge in Russia?

[Admiral Halsey]

I've heard rumors that those shrapnel holes were really bullet holes. Anyone know anything about that?

[Stealhead]

Originally Posted by Bilge_Rat

If that is true, why are more/most civilians seeking refuge in Russia?

That makes perfect sense to me that 11% is more than likely the majority of the ethnicly Russian population of those regions so naturally they are most likely to wish to head to Russia. That number may not even be the majority of ethnic Russians but a portion of them. According to Wikipedia 17% of Ukranian citizens are ethnic Russians.

[Oberon]

Originally Posted by Bilge_Rat

If that is true, why are more/most civilians seeking refuge in Russia?

At a guess I'd say that it was because they're living in a war zone, therefore you go to the nearest place that isn't a war zone. If you go west then you have to go through an active conflict area to get to safety but if you go east then you cross into friendly Russian territory and wait until the war is over, one way or another. Most likely, since Russias hands are tied in aiding the pro-Russian forces, it will offer citizenship to all those who have fled eastern Ukraine.

[Dread Knot]

Originally Posted by Admiral Halsey

I've heard rumors that those shrapnel holes were really bullet holes. Anyone know anything about that?

Not likely. First, they're too small. A 30mm rifled round from an SU-25 as suggested the culprit by some, leaves a much bigger hole. The penetrators in AAA missile warheads, however, are most often small steel ball-bearing style projectiles. They're cheap and easy to manufacture out of very hard metals and they fly straight and true over a short distance regardless of orientation, and produce the most effective shrapnel ball for the target to fly through. Those holes in the Malaysian Air jet are far more consistent with AAA shrapnel than with 30mm rifled projectiles.

Second, when a 30mm slug strikes an airplane from behind and strikes longitudinal surfaces like wings and fuselage, it tends to leave a long narrow holes or tears. In order for rifled projectiles to make a circular hole, it has to enter or leave roughly perpendicularly to the surface, which would happen only if the aircraft were approaching at a 90 degree angle from the side. That might have been common in the biplane era, but that's not how modern fighter planes work.

[CCIP]

Originally Posted by Bilge_Rat

hmm, according to the UN, 730 000 refugees from East Ukraine have crossed over into Russia:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/ukraine...ting-1.2727574

730 000 represents 11% of the population of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblast.

Apparently more refugees are seeking refuge in Russia then in Western Ukraine.

Now, here is what I don't get. According to the western media, USA, EU, etc., all the rebels in East Ukraine are Russians or on the Russian payroll and the local population is just waiting to be liberated by the Ukrainian military.

If that is true, why are more/most civilians seeking refuge in Russia?

One thing you want to keep in mind here is the economic angle as well. The Donbass region (Donetsk & surroundings) has always arguably been more closely linked to Russia economically than Western Ukraine. Russia has simply been the main customer of their (relatively developed) heavy industry. This certainly leads to other links. For many people living there, Russia is a "land of opportunity" as well - Russia's heavy industry, from the earliest beginnings of industrialization, has always tapped this region for its skilled labour. And to this day, many see better pay and more opportunities in Russia - and Russia tries to attract them because these Ukrainian workers are often far more skilled and ask for less pay than Russian ones. This is especially a bonus in a place like Russia, where a lot of the wealth comes from natural resources in places with pretty extreme conditions - not everyone is willing to go mining above the Arctic circle, but these Donbass miners and workers have historically proven much less picky. So, these are often people who are very welcome in Russia. There are many with family already in Russia, who moved or indeed lived throughout Russia all their life. Yet they're often not welcome in Western Ukraine, for cultural reasons, which is substantially more impoverished and has lower standards of living than the country's east anyway. And Kiev, like many capital cities, is a tough and competitive job market. So, where else to go? Refugees generally don't run to regions that they know are poorer and where they're always at a disadvantage against locals.

And then politically, I think many of these people have first-hand evidence that Ukraine is a failed state and Russia is not. Nationalist scares aside, they just have simple, objective reasons for having more confidence in the Russian state (and its ability to take care of them) than the Ukrainian one.

Not much of a conspiracy, just simple materialist logic.

[Dmitry Markov]

And then another question - whom would you call a Russian or a Ukrainian - taking into account that there are a lot of people beeing half or quarter Ukrainian or Russian. When there is no any stamp in a passport you'll never tell one from another. People in that area speak a dialect which consists of both Ukrainian and Russian words. And there are a lot of families having relatives across the whole former USSR.

I don't know if it was covered in Western media - but recently even about 400 soldiers of Ukrainian army asked for a safe passage through our territory 'cause they were caught in a crossfire by rebels. Our authorities AGREED and gave them a safe bypass to an area not controlled by rebels and even gave them bathing facilities and feed them (Of course they were without arms). And it was huge discussion on our radio stations and in the internet on whether we should grant them bypass or maybe internate them untill the end of a conflict. Most of people were of course blaiming authorities in betreating rebels and said that these Ukrainian soldiers should have been taken as POWs but some others pointed that granting them passage would show Ukrainians that we are really not a side of this conflict and we see their conflict as mutual trouble for both sides.