Malaysian Airlines MH317

[Pisces]

Originally Posted by Feuer Frei!

...and the Su-25 (on the right) with the shape of an EF-111 Raven, a famous, retired, U.S. electronic warfare plane!

You'd think they would at least be able to tell their own creations apart from their coldwar antagonist's. I pity them now.

[Jimbuna]

The victims remains have been moved to Kherkiv outside rebel held territory.

A train carrying the remains of victims of the Malaysian airliner which crashed in Ukraine has arrived in the city of Kharkiv, outside rebel territory.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-28416973

[Oberon]

Sadly not all the remains...

I do have to chuckle a little bit though, I get the impression that Putin is regarded as something of a James Bond villain in America, a sort of new Bin Laden for the 21st century perhaps.

This was not deliberately engineered by Putin, that much is certain, he gains nothing from it, and while he might not be Blofeld, he is not a stupid person.
In my mind, this is how events played out.
The pro-Russians got a Buk launcher, either stolen from the Ukrainian army or delivered across the border from Russia, both scenarios are just as likely, and current intel leans it towards the latter.
Russia intends these launchers to be used by the pro-Russians to degrade the aerial advantage that the Ukrainian military has, however despite the Ukraine denying it has SAM launchers that far east, it will have SAM units in the east in order to defend against a potential Russian incursion, so I don't believe that particular line from Kiev for one minute.
Anyway, a Ukrainian Su-25 was operating near the area of MH-17 on a routine mission, nothing unusual about Frogfoots operating in Eastern Ukraine. The pro-Russian forces targeted the Frogfoot with the Buk launcher, but due to their poor training or just a fluke accident (not particularly likely with todays IFF technology) they launched a Surface to Air Missile at MH-17.
At first their jubilation indicates that they thought the Frogfoot had been downed, then it turns to horror as they realise they've just shot down a passenger airliner. A frantic cover-up begins, the Buk is kicked back across the border to Russia, the wreckage is scoured for evidence of missile damage and Russia finds itself in a very tough spot...which is why it is playing a bit of a dance, trying to pin the blame on Kiev when it knows that it's just as likely to be Donetsk.
Putin is in a spot of bother, really, in fact he finds himself a little bit like the PRC finds itself when North Korea is being an idiot. He has vouched for the pro-Russian forces, he has aided the pro-Russian forces and they have screwed up, big time, but he has cemented his position so that he cannot come out on international media and condemn the pro-Russian forces, instead he has to play the quiet game, making concessions here and there (such as in the recent vote in the UNSC which Russia backed) while trying to do damage control.
Now Skybird does have a point when he states that most of Putins comments are for internal use only, directed more at the Russian people than the people of the world. If there is one thing that Putin has been doing, it's focusing on domestic matters...he's not really had a choice with the whole unrest there has been in places. The last thing he really wants though is a new Cold War, Russia has had good trade with the west, he's made a lot of rubles off it, and whilst he can and will transfer this trade to China, there is going to be a bit of a hit while the process takes place.
Will Europe end up the worse for this new Cold War? Perhaps...I certainly expect to see a greater emphasis on internal trade and consolidation of the EU power in the future if Russia is going to become the de jure European nemesis of the 21st century. Quite honestly Europe has three choices, shackle itself to America (which I don't think either America or Europe wants), shackle itself to Russia (I think Eastern Europe would rather be a nuclear wasteland than that) or consolidate its power and finally realise that alone the GDP and military power of Germany is nothing compared to Russia, but with all the other states of the EU put together, it's more than a match for Moscow.

The tricky part is getting a bunch of European nations to actually agree on something...I can't really recall a single time in history that this has happened...

[Betonov]

Let me add something Oberon.

How the rebels handled the situation showed they have a very de-centralised command. The first few days they looked like headless chickens running around, not knowing should they allow people in, what to do with bodies, what to do with black boxes...

Slowly as days went, they allowed investigators in, handed over the black boxes, sent the train with bodies towards Holland. As if less decisions were done by field commanders and more by some senior staff.

Maybe Putin wasn't behind the recent progress, but only the rebels banged their heads together and started making coherent reasonable decisions.

[Jimbuna]

Originally Posted by Betonov

Let me add something Oberon.

How the rebels handled the situation showed they have a very de-centralised command. The first few days they looked like headless chickens running around, not knowing should they allow people in, what to do with bodies, what to do with black boxes...

Slowly as days went, they allowed investigators in, handed over the black boxes, sent the train with bodies towards Holland. As if less decisions were done by field commanders and more by some senior staff.

Maybe Putin wasn't behind the recent progress, but only the rebels banged their heads together and started making coherent reasonable decisions.

My theory is that Putin eventually came to the realisation that the world was eventually starting to turn against him so he pulled a few strings of those in the rebel camp who do as he bids.

[CCIP]

Originally Posted by Betonov

Let me add something Oberon.

How the rebels handled the situation showed they have a very de-centralised command. The first few days they looked like headless chickens running around, not knowing should they allow people in, what to do with bodies, what to do with black boxes...

Slowly as days went, they allowed investigators in, handed over the black boxes, sent the train with bodies towards Holland. As if less decisions were done by field commanders and more by some senior staff.

Maybe Putin wasn't behind the recent progress, but only the rebels banged their heads together and started making coherent reasonable decisions.

To add something to that though, remember that a lot of the same also applies to the other side - the official Ukraine and their military are also right now pretty decentralized and poorly coordinated, and you see that in their reaction here as well. Keep in mind, the country is in a very poor state, and a lot of the new leadership are people who were just anti-government activists a few months earlier and not all of them are highly qualified for leadership. The Ukrainian army is in a bad state - units are so chronically understrength that conscription is being re-introduced, and defection, desertion and just general lack of motivation is rife, especially for soldiers who are themselves from the East. A lot of the fighting is being done by the so-called National Guard, volunteer units who are way more motivated but also themselves operate like nationalist militias that are equipped by the government. They've shown lack of coordination throughout this conflict - there's many situations where some National Guard battallions observed government-ordered ceasefires while others advanced; there's a huge variation in tactics and approaches among them. Many have their own air support. I really don't have a lot of confidence in calling them a coordinated modern military. A lot of the leadership of these units are nationalists, many with experience fighting in Chechnya against Russians, and what they would've learned there is basically a many-warlords approach to fighting a civil war (in fact, there's a bit of a rematch going on right now in eastern Ukraine, between Ukrainian nationalists who fought with separatist warlords against Russian forces in Chechnya and pro-Moscow warlords who run Chechnya now and have sent volunteers and mercenaries, along with weapons, to the Donetsk and Lugansk militias). Those are, in a sense, their best-qualified people. Meanwhile, a lot of the old, highly-trained, centralized military leadership in the Ukraine is gone - during the "Orange" years, there was a virtual purge of the "Old Guard", experienced officers who started out in the USSR's Red Army. It's not surprising that Yuschenko's government would've been suspicious of having their military run by generals who originally swore an oath to the Soviet government and Moscow, and they were largely removed - without qualified replacements. That did a lot of damage to the Ukrainian military's ability to manage itself. And lastly, all the economic troubles in the Ukraine really have not done good things to the quality of their military and to morale.

Bottom line is that both sides of the conflict there are pretty decentralized and reacting poorly right now. I would not trust either side with complex weapons systems or difficult investigations, to be honest. And that's what makes this disaster and the investigation so messy.

[kraznyi_oktjabr]

Oberon, Although I think you theory is in general correct, there is a little hole in it. Atleast all media sources I have encountered so far initial (and removed) separatist claim was that they had shot down Ukraininan transport aircraft. I'm not sure if An-26 was specifically mentioned or not (one was shot down earlier).

Also Yle.fi (Finland's national broadcaster) reports that separatist soldier has given Corriere della Sera and interview where he admitted that they shot MH17 down. I check if I find article in English.

EDIT: Link to Corriere della Sera's english article below.

http://www.corriere.it/english/14_lu...a03d21e8.shtml

[CCIP]

Meanwhile, Ukrainian news reporting two Su-25s shot down in the past day, both reportedly just north of the MH17 site. The rebels have reported that they were downed by shoulder-launched missiles, Kiev authorities suspect other possibilities.

Worth noting that the shootdown is reported in reference to a village just 25km from the MH 17 site, despite both sides declaring a 40km radius around it a ceasefire zone.

[CCIP]

Meanwhile, more pictures and reports are emerging of an SA-11 vehicle in the town of Torez, 12km south of the crash site, on the day of the shootdown. Torez is under rebel control.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...-launcher-mh17

Another picture:




And here is a site tracking/mapping pictures of the possible Buk spotted in Torez and Snizhne, both near the shootdown zone: http://politota.d3.ru/comments/578166/

And here in English, a user has made an attempt to put together pictures to track the actual site of the launch, including an alleged picture of a smoke column left by the SAM launch: http://ukraineatwar.blogspot.ca/2014...f-missile.html



...all of which puts the alleged launch site right here: https://goo.gl/maps/hnkX3

Certainly a plausible version.

[Admiral Halsey]

Don't know if this has been posted yet but here's basically Russia's questions and version of events. It's in both English and Russia.

[Jimbuna]

Originally Posted by CCIP

Meanwhile, more pictures and reports are emerging of an SA-11 vehicle in the town of Torez, 12km south of the crash site, on the day of the shootdown. Torez is under rebel control.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...-launcher-mh17

Another picture:




And here is a site tracking/mapping pictures of the possible Buk spotted in Torez and Snizhne, both near the shootdown zone: http://politota.d3.ru/comments/578166/

And here in English, a user has made an attempt to put together pictures to track the actual site of the launch, including an alleged picture of a smoke column left by the SAM launch: http://ukraineatwar.blogspot.ca/2014...f-missile.html



...all of which puts the alleged launch site right here: https://goo.gl/maps/hnkX3

Certainly a plausible version.

Well that certainly has grabbed my attention and got me thinking and considering the possibilities.

[Kptlt. Neuerburg]

There are some probabilities that should be considered here in regards to the BuK. First off is that with the possibility that the Buk in question was captured by the Pro-Russian separatists then the IFF system would of had of either been removed or disabled in order to shoot down Ukrainian aircraft, or the other possibility that they got it from the Russians then the IFF system shouldn't matter much since the IFF could of been removed before hand or with it being a Russian unit not mattered at all.
Second is that civilian airliners, to the best of my knowledge do not have an IFF transmitter and/or transponder, so the operator could of incorrectly identified the Boeing 777 as an An-26. Although at this point the facts surrounding the how and why are about as clear as thick fog.

[CCIP]

Torez is now reported to be under heavy artillery and rocket fire from Ukrainian government forces. Worth noting that it is only about 13km from the crash site, and it's happening despite the mutually-declared 40km ceasefire zone around it to allow investigators to work. It seems that Kiev wants to have that site under their control now.

[Jimbuna]

Russia will cooperate with the investigation into the downing of a Malaysian airliner a week ago and is satisfied that the Netherlands, rather than Ukraine, is leading the effort, the country's ambassador to Malaysia said on Thursday.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...news-live.html

[TarJak]

http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2014-0...charge/5622860

Interesting"find".