Strike on North Korea

[mapuc]

NORTH Korea has threatened to teach the United States a “severe lesson” by using its nuclear arsenal if Donald Trump takes military action against it.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/...S-UN-sanctions


Markus

[Mr Quatro]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

The Chinese are keeping their options open and their cards close to their chest.

What happens next if anything, is anyones guess.

Do you think the Pentagon is doing any guessing?

https://worldview.stratfor.com/artic...ould-retaliate

North Korea is powerless to prevent a U.S. strike on its nuclear program, but retaliation is well within its means. The significant military capability that North Korea has built up against South Korea is not advanced by Western standards, but there are practical ways Pyongyang could respond to aggression.

The North Korean military's most powerful tool is artillery. It cannot level Seoul as some reports have claimed, but it could do significant damage. Pyongyang risks deteriorating its forces by exposing them to return fire, however, which significantly restricts their use.

Less conventional methods of retaliation, such as sabotage or cyber warfare, are less risky but also limit the shock that North Korea would desire.

Our side can not rule out sleeper cells in South Korea and even here in our homeland. These war minded Koreans are always thinking how to get even with a first strike.

I say throw his head over the wall ... offer his life for the ones a war would cost. Someone will take up that offer ...

[Skybird]

They grow so fast and become so eager to leave the house.

[Skybird]

And a report by the Japanese defence ministry, saying that NKorea probably already was successful in miniaturizing its nuclear warheads to fit them onto an ICBM, and that the nuclear program now is in its final phase. Ministry recommends to the government to turn the Japanese defence forces into an "attack force" (I take that as a force more capable to conduct long distance operations), German media quote from the report.

I expect to see that everybody is rattling his sabre but does nothing until it is too late. Once NK has become untouchable, the real fun will begin.

Lesson to be learned here: the same like so many times before in history, when it almost always was ignored before as well: appeasment does not pay off in the long run, but always turns form bad to worse, from worse to worst.

Oh, just btw, since we talk nukes: Turkey highest relgious cleric was asked by Erdoghan to givbe a declaration that Turkey should want to get it sown nukes, and so he did. Many influential politics from the government and the AKP have started to campaign for rallying public support for it as well.

My prediction? Turkey first, Saudi Arabia, Egypt next. Iran is on its way anyway already.

Brazil probably already has them, and Indonesia I expect to want them in the forseeable future as well.

I wonder what opinion side will make the race in Japan.

I want back the cold war. It was a safer time, despite the several accidents and near-doomsday events.

[ikalugin]

Some Japanese politicians just want to get an actual military vs a self defense force.

[Rockstar]

And why not others dont seem to have no problem selling NK everthing need to arm themselves with nuclear weapons.

I vote we equip Japan an South Korea with nuclear weapons immediately.

[mapuc]

Some weeks ago I saw and heard an issue in a Danish News program, where a journalist said that China had sold and bought things from NK for about x billion Dollars(can't remember the figure) and it would be hard to create an effective sanction against NK because of this.

Big brother is helping its little brother.

Markus

[vienna]

There was a report on the radio of a meeting of representatives of China, NK, and SK as a sidebar to a larger meeting of Asian nations, and it seems all did not go well; the NK delegation was openly hostile and disrespectful of the other two delegations and vociferously refused to budge or even seriously discuss any solution to the NK crisis. Considering China has been the "guardian" of NK throughout the decades, it is hard to imagine the antics and truculence of the NK delegation was not a little insulting to China; given China did not exercise its veto power to stop the new NK sanctions package, is it possible China is just about done with NK and most likely will not say 'boo' if the US were to do something 'aggressive' about NK? After all, China could let the US give the Fat Boy the spanking he so richly deserves and then they can resume the role of guardian without the bother of an idiotic, unpredictable leader in NK; China could very well position itself to dictate the form of any new NK leadership...





<O>

[Jimbuna]

^That is certainly a plausible possibility.

[Skybird]

I repeat: there ahve been reports saying that the Nkorean quick advances in their program would not have been possible without help from Russia or China, and that the equipment used in those missile developnments and as carrier platforms, bases on Chinese material.

Stakes raise higher and higher in the South Chinese sea: ressources fields, artifical island building and all that. If the US does not fall back and give up there, a war there only is a question of time in the coming 10-20 years, I assume. The one Leviathan does not want to give up his power. The other Leviathan grabs for right that power and wants it, no matter the cost. This cannot go well forever.

Do not trust China. NKorea distracts the US from the conflict with the nChinese in the South Chinese sea, and in case of war may bind and even kill some US ressources, certainbly affect the US bases in Southern Korea. Logistics and supplies will be drained to serious degrees (recall the speed at which smart ammunition and missiles got consumed in the second - 91 - and third - 03 -Gulf war). Now do the math - who benefits from this?

If China would mean serious business with Kim, they would not hold a fleet parade offshore NKorea, but would stop economic aid and delivery of key technology. Again: indications are strong that China helped and still helps NKorea to accelerate their nuclear program. Maybe Russia as well.

A Chinese fleet manouver offshore NorthKorea to me sends a very different message - to the US: "If you want to attack Northkorea, you have to get by us first." As long as they are there, the US Navy cannot reach NorthKorea without needing to slam into the Chinese navy first.

China has a common land border with Northkorea. They do not need a fleet offshore NKorea to send a warning. Amassing troops and planes and missile artillery at the border, would be more effective for "communicating". And could be sustained for much longer. But they don't do that. They just move some ships into the path of the US Navy's strike vectors instead. North Korea is an annoyance for China. The US navy and the American presence in South Korea is a major threat.

Conclusion...?

There is only one motive why everybody in the West waits and hopes for the Chinese to get somethign done about Kim (what, btw? Invading?) And that is that the West hopes the Chinese fairy queen will get the hot potatoes out of the fire for us, for we are not willing to care for it ourselves. And even if imaginign for a moment the Chinese are wanting the same as the West: the defusing of the conflict, the Northkoreans have pushed themselves into a psychological corner wherte they canot ge tout again. They are now like a angry dog surrounded by walls of mirrors. They watch the mirrors and freak out more and more every second. Its psychology. I think the US navy already now cannot win a major war with China anymore. The US will not be eager to risk a war with China over Northkorea. Europe is a total fail militarily, and would not even be able to sort this thing out if it would happen not on the other side of the planet,m but in the baltic or mediterranean sea. So: nothing will be done. Prepare to welcome Northkorea in the club of nuclear powers soon.

Finally, there are the southkoreans themnselves. Very possible that they will be the greatest objectors to a military option for the Noireth Korean problem. North Korea cannot eradicate then south militarily,l. but it is very capable to unleash an awful lot of damage and disaster. There were doubts during the cold war that the Westgerman government would ever agree to the use of NATO nukes on German soil (thus rumours hold it that the Allies would not have asked them seriously anyway). I expect to see Sourthkorean reservations at play as well.

I wish and hope I am wrong with all what I write here. But I follow the demands of reasonable thinking here, and reject wishful thinking. That one of the two worst scenarios turn true (nuclear armament of the North accepted, or war), is the most likely outcome currently.

And then there is the temper of the Doinald, and his lackign self-control. I wonder whether the idea of the US military revolting against its commander-in-chief, really is absolutely unimaginable.

[mapuc]

I say Skybird is right on about this.

The question is what can our leader and UN do about it, if China behind UN's back keep on making deals with NK ? Put an embargo on China ?

Markus

[STEED]

US President Donald Trump says North Korea "will be met with fire and fury" if it threatens the US.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-40869319

Another step towards Nuclear War?

I can not see ether side backing off.

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by STEED

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-40869319

Another step towards Nuclear War?

I can not see ether side backing off.

Had just been reading it-

Hopefully it's nothing more than some little boys in the sand-thing and yelling to each other saying my father can beat your father

Markus

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by mapuc

I say Skybird is right on about this.

I hope I am not.

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Skybird

I hope I am not.

I meant the analyze of the how China is acting in the "play"

Markus