US Politics Thread 2016-2020

[Jimbuna]

Hardly surprised at Trumps actions all things considered but I'm not sure the US or Israel will attack Iran either.

Certainty would come if Iran followed Syrias lead and invite the Russians to form a military presence in their country.

[Skybird]

What the Europeans stubbornly refuse to realise: since the treaty came into effect and economic deals were possible again and money flushed into Iran, Ian's foreign politlical aggressiveness has increased and its engagement in establishing military spearheads outside its borders and its engagement in financing Islamic terror have significantly increased as well.

[u crank]

It was not a treaty in the exact definition of that term.

Treaties are international agreements which are described under Article II, Section 2, Clause 2 of the Constitution. A treaty is forced in relation to the U.S. as an international agreement only after a two-thirds majority of the U.S. Senate has been advised and consented.

A treaty is a formal agreement made by the President of the U.S. It is carried over to the successive officeholders.

The international agreements which are brought to force in relation to the U.S. without the advice and consent of the Senate on a Constitutional basis are called executive agreements. They are often referred to as “international agreements other than treaties.” An executive agreement does not require a mandatory two-thirds vote of the U.S. Senate.

They are not binding on the successive presidents. An executive agreement needs renegotiation by the successive presidents.

http://www.differencebetween.net/language/words-
language/difference-between-treaty-and-executive-agreement/

This should be a lesson to future Presidents. Ruling by executive order is not the way to go. Obama is finding that out now.

[August]

Interesting article. Another indication that the so called "blue wave" may just be wishful thinking by the Dems and their media shills.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ar...mp_136998.html

Hispanics Score Under Trump


COMMENTARY






By Steve Cortes
May 09, 2018



It’s baseball season in America, and any fan knows that going 6 for 7 in batting is stellar. Well, President Trump just pulled off a 6 for 7 performance -- not in at-plate appearances but instead in an arena far more crucial: record jobs gains for Hispanic Americans.


Among Latinos, the jobless rate has only registered below 5 percent for seven months total – in the history of this country. Six of those months have occurred with Donald Trump in the White House, including the April report released last week.


The jobs data was terrific news for Americans of all ethnicities. For the first time since the year 2000, the overall unemployment rate dipped below 4 percent. Just as significant, almost 1 million Americans who had previously given up on finding a job have rejoined the workforce since Trump was elected.


This movement toward self-sufficiency is a notable achievement for all Americans, but particular focus should be placed on the gains for communities of color. Why? Because identity politics and Democrats’ Big Government policies have failed minorities. Only now, at long last, are those communities beginning to realize their potential, which has clearly been unleashed with help from the pro-growth Trump administration economic policies of deregulation, tax cuts, and border enforcement.

[Dowly]

Originally Posted by August

Interesting article. Another indication that the so called "blue wave" may just be wishful thinking by the Dems and their media shills.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ar...mp_136998.html

The unemployment rate of Hispanics have been steadily decreasing since 2010 and shows no increased rate of decrease.

https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000009

Same goes for blacks:
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000006

So, might want to hold off on that confeve confetti for now.

[Iceman]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

Hardly surprised at Trumps actions all things considered but I'm not sure the US or Israel will attack Iran either.

Certainty would come if Iran followed Syrias lead and invite the Russians to form a military presence in their country.

Yes I do not know how much longer Israel can afford to not strike first. I do not think they will gamble much longer and take decisive action to ensure they're survival as a people even if it means going it alone.

[Mr Quatro]

Originally Posted by Iceman

Yes I do not know how much longer Israel can afford to not strike first. I do not think they will gamble much longer and take decisive action to ensure they're survival as a people even if it means going it alone.

Welcome back iceman ... long time no see

[vienna]

Originally Posted by Dowly

The unemployment rate of Hispanics have been steadily decreasing since 2010 and shows no increased rate of decrease.

https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000009

Same goes for blacks:
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000006

So, might want to hold off on that confeve confetti for now.

Actually, if you look at the trends across the economy, there has been a steady rate of increase/decrease (depending of which part of the economy is being discussed) since the beginning of the recovery from the 2007-08 crash, through the Obama years and continuing now; any impact anything Trump may have done is just not showing up, for good or bad; however, all that may change if oil/gas consumer prices rise due to actions like the Iran deal cancellation (although I was pretty sure the prices would rise regardless once the tax cuts went into effect: the oil companies have a strangely "coincidental" knack for randomly increasing their pump prices when 'extra' money ends up in the pockets of working Americans ), and there are also other pending Trump actions such as the threatened tariff impositions/increases that would definitely have an effect on across-the-board consumer prices for working Americans and, likely, an effect on jobs as businesses also have to deal with higher prices for goods and services...

All in all, what Trump has been threatening or doing will be reflected in the coming quarters and probably not for the good...

Bottom line: those tax cut benefits promised to working Americans will most likely evaporate in higher prices and then some...









<O>

[Bilge_Rat]

Originally Posted by u crank

This should be a lesson to future Presidents. Ruling by executive order is not the way to go. Obama is finding that out now.

yup, if you go back to when the agreement was negotiated, you see Obama did not submit to the Senate (which would have made it a legally binding Treaty) since he knew it would be rejected.

[desepticon]

Well, maybe he could have gone to the Senate for a lot of things, if they hadn't decided already that Obama wasn't allowed to do anything. Battling that kind of intransigence, it's amazing he got anything done.

[Rockstar]

Oil Price Forecast 2018 - 2050

How Oil Prices Could Rise Above $200 a Barrel

https://www.thebalance.com/oil-price-forecast-3306219

Four Reasons for Volatile Oil Prices

Prices have been volatile thanks to swings in oil supply. Oil prices used to have a predictable seasonal swing. They spiked in the spring, as oil traders anticipated high demand for summer vacation driving. Once demand peaked, prices dropped in the fall and winter.

So why are oil prices no longer as predictable? The oil industry has changed in four fundamental ways.

First, U.S. production of shale oil and alternative fuels, such as ethanol, began increasing in 2015. U.S. fuel production was 10.4 million barrels/day in 2018. The EIA estimates it will average 10.7 million b/d in 2018, the highest annual average production in U.S. history. It would beat the previous record of 9.6 million b/d set in 1970. Production averaged 9.3 million b/d in 2017. The EIA forecast that oil production will average 11.4 million b/d in 2019.

Why is the United States producing so much oil at historically low prices? Many shale oil producers have become more efficient at extracting oil. They've found ways to keep wells open, saving them the cost of capping them. At the same time, massive oil wells in the Gulf, began producing in large quantities. They couldn't stop production regardless of low oil prices. As a result, large traditional oil enterprises stopped exploring new reserves. These companies include Exxon-Mobil, BP, Chevron, and Royal Dutch Shell. It was cheaper for them to buy the less efficient shale oil companies. The International Energy Administration predictsthat the United States will become the world's largest oil producer by 2023. The U.S. oil industry will grow enough to meet domestic demand. To do so, it must find the right balance. It must increase supply slowly enough to keep prices high enough to pay for increasing exploration.

Second, OPEC reduced output to put a floor under prices. On November 30, 2016, its members agreed to cut production by 1.2 million b/d by January 2017. Prices began rising right after the OPEC announcement. On November 30, 2017, OPEC agreed to continue the production cuts through 2018. OPEC's cuts lowered production to 32.5 million b/d. The EIA estimates OPEC will produce 32.8 million b/d in 2018. But both figures are still higher than its 2015 average of 32.32 million b/d.
Throughout its history, OPEC controlled production to maintain a $70/b price target. In 2014, it abandoned this policy.
Saudi Arabia, OPEC's biggest contributor, lowered its price to its largest customers in October 2014. It did not want to lose market share to its arch rival, Iran. These two countries' rivalry stems from the conflict between the Sunni and Shiite branches of Islam. Iran promised to double its oil exports to 2.4 million b/d once sanctions were lifted. The 2015 nuclear peace treaty lifted 2010 economic sanctions and allowed Saudi Arabia's biggest rival to export oil again in 2016.

Saudi Arabia also did not want to lose market share to U.S. shale oil producers. It bet that lower prices would force many U.S. shale producers out of business and reduce its competition. It was right. At first, shale producers found ways to keep the oil pumping. Thanks to increased U.S. supply, demand for OPEC oil fell from 30 million b/d in 2014 to 29 million b/d in 2015. But the strong dollar meant OPEC countries could remain profitable at lower oil prices. Rather than lose market share, OPEC kept its production target at 30 million b/d. The lower prices caused 2016 U.S. oil production to fall to 8.9 million b/d. Less efficient shale producers either cut back or were bought out. That reduced supply by around 10 percent, creating a boom and bust in U.S. shale oil..

Third, foreign exchange traders drove up the value of the dollar by 25 percent in 2014 and 2015. All oil transactions are paid in U.S. dollars. The strong dollar helped cause some of the 70 percent decline in the price of petroleum for exporting countries. Most oil-exporting countries peg their currencies to the dollar. Therefore, a 25 percent rise in the dollar offsets a 25 percent drop in oil prices. Global uncertainty is one factor that akes the dollar so strong. The dollar's value has been falling since December 2016, according to the DXY interactive chart. On December 11, 2016, the USDX was 102.95. In early 2017, hedge funds began shorting the dollar as Europe's economy improved. As the euro rose, the dollar fell. By April 11, 2018, it had fallen to 89.53.

Fourth, global demand grew more slowly than anticipated. It only rose to 93.3 million b/d​ in 2015, from 92.4 million b/d​ in 2014, according to the IEA. Most of the increase was from China, which now consumes 12 percent of global oil production. Since its economic reforms slowed its growth, global demand growth may continue slow down.

Other websites I've visited has people that have been predicting current prices (+/-) as far back as 2016 but nobody at those grown-up sites ever mentions "damn him" Trump as a reason why.

I was listening to NPR on the way home from work last night. Seems the guests on one program had concerns how much of an attention hound Trump really is and how much he probably loves it. Concerned how the media is always all Trump 24 hrs since his inauguration and how that kind of coverage might help get him re-elected. God help us all

[Skybird]

Career politicians and professional attention getters always try to reap what not necessarily has been sown by themselves.

[vienna]

Originally Posted by Rockstar

Oil Price Forecast 2018 - 2050

How Oil Prices Could Rise Above $200 a Barrel

https://www.thebalance.com/oil-price-forecast-3306219

Other websites I've visited has people that have been predicting current prices (+/-) as far back as 2016 but nobody at those grown-up sites ever mentions "damn him" Trump as a reason why.

I was listening to NPR on the way home from work last night. Seems the guests on one program had concerns how much of an attention hound Trump really is and how much he probably loves it. Concerned how the media is always all Trump 24 hrs since his inauguration and how that kind of coverage might help get him re-elected. God help us all

Well, since Trump has been running his presidency as a shambolic reality show and just about begging all and sundry to pay attention only to him and his idiocies, the media attention you criticize is thus easily explained; after all, Trump is very much the Kim Kardassian of US politics, with all the tawdry and tacky implications contained therein. Consider what would happen if the media just started ignoring Trump altogether: with his constant need to feed his over-inflated ego, he would either probably implode or act out like some spoiled child having a temper tantrum...

Trump likes to consider himself (and demands those around him to also consider him) to be the smartest guy in the room, wherever he is and regardless of who else might be in the same room; the sad fact is you could lock Trump in a very small bathroom by himself and he still wouldn't be the smartest guy, or thing, in that room...

The Balance is a website that is part of what remains of the old Ask.com group. Maybe it would be a good idea to see what other 'grown ups' have to say about the effect of Trump's decision re; Iran might have on oil prices, the Us economy, and the working American's hopes for any gin under the tax cuts:


Trump's Iran nuclear deal withdrawal could also have major economic consequences for average Americans --

http://www.businessinsider.com/trump...savings-2018-5


...and, remember, the effect is linked to more than just the Iran deal: Trump's imposition of new and/or increased tariffs will also cut into any 'gains' made by the tax cuts. One thing I'm pretty sure of: if the economy goes south and Trump needs to raise revenue, he won't be putting the bite on his fellow One-Per Centers, who have a permanent and very generous tax cut package; as it has always been, the pain will be felt by the working Americans as Trump will feel no compunction about using raised taxes, fees, and other "revenue enhancements" (as Regan/Bush used to characterize what others would simply call takes) in order to make up for his ill-advised, ignorant, short-sighted economic policies...

...and the porcelain will still be the smartest thing in that room...









<O>

[Rockstar]

According to an article in al Arabiya and a press release from the Ministry of Energy the Saudis appear to support the U.S. decision to leave the Iran deal. Which confirms in part price variance reason number Two of the Balance article.

Riyadh, Sha'ban 22, 1439, May 08, 2018, SPA -- Following the US decision to withdraw from the nuclear agreement with Iran, an official spokesman of the Ministry of Energy, Industry and Mineral Resources, assured that Saudi Arabia remains committed to supporting the stability of oil markets for the benefit of producers and consumers alike, and for sustaining growth in the global economy. He added that the kingdom would work with major producers within and outside OPEC as well as major consumers to mitigate the impact of any potential supply shortages.

How it will affect us at home is yet to be seen. But the decision of the U.S. to leave the deal sure makes the Sunnis very happy.

[Catfish]

^ Next move: Russian oil.