The all purpose terrorism thread featuring plenty of allah akbar

[Oberon]

They'd have to have the tactical acumen of a walnut to not smuggle forces into Europe using the best camouflage the world has created for them. That's just the risk that you run.
To be honest, Daesh are quite easily tearing Europe apart and they don't even need to fire a shot, just keep pushing refugees out of Syria and wait for Europe to melt down and start conforming to the narrative that Daesh are selling, that the west is at war with Islam.

We lost this war the day we started fighting it.

[Jimbuna]

Originally Posted by Oberon

They'd have to have the tactical acumen of a walnut to not smuggle forces into Europe using the best camouflage the world has created for them. That's just the risk that you run.
To be honest, Daesh are quite easily tearing Europe apart and they don't even need to fire a shot, just keep pushing refugees out of Syria and wait for Europe to melt down and start conforming to the narrative that Daesh are selling, that the west is at war with Islam.

We lost this war the day we started fighting it.

I'd say the Russian bombing of civilians are the cause of the most refugees fleeing Syria atm.

[ikalugin]

Not the ground war? With arty bombardments? Or the prolonged humanitarian crisis?

When you think about it - we don't drop all that much ordanance from those aircraft. Much more is fired by arty every day (including ours), it is just that air aspect of the war is over rated for various reasons. And then you get political/religious/ethnic cleansing with related deaths, general insecurity and fear of prolonged civil war.

[HunterICX]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

I'd say the Russian bombing of civilians are the cause of the most refugees fleeing Syria atm.

Eh....no, they themselves pretty much state they're getting bombed by Russia, attacked by Assad's Army from one side, attacked by Syrian Rebels from the other and on yet another side they have ISIS.

So wherever they go or are in Syria it ain't a pretty situation.

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

I'd say the Russian bombing of civilians are the cause of the most refugees fleeing Syria atm.

No. Just absolutely no.

I am no fan of Putin, that guy is simply sick in the head, but the eternal "Russians blow everything up" is just bogus.
Yes, they dropped some bombs on the wrong targets and of course that would not happen to anyone else, ever....... so it is - as always - Russia's fault.
Syrians were fleeing the region long before Russia started dropping bombs.

If East/West relationships deteriorate any further, the West can dig out their old anti-communism posters again. They worked back then, they will work today, which is sad and funny at the same time.
I love Russia. And Russians. Mostly awesome people, they just tick a little different but once you know how to take them, all is fine, so the current "Russia evil!" attitude of the west pisses me off completely, more so because many people simply buy it without question.

I wouldn't know what to do if things would escalate.
Defend my country, or attack someone I don't want to attack because I know it is all BS?

Politicians, man...

[Skybird]

Nippelspanner,

it seems that in past weeks indeed the lion's share of civilian casualties comes from intensified Russian attacks. The Russian bombers kick in the doors for the Syrian ground troops. Assad currently is on the offensive. Moscow wants to collect some favourable facts on the ground before any possible negotiations get underway - possibly.

Russia is good in blowing stuff up without discrimination. See Chechnya. The grim truth is: brute force works.

One can be thankful that they have no major ground forces there, implementing Russian artillery doctrine.

[Oberon]

Hunter is right though, right now the RuAF is conducting a heavy bombing campaign against Aleppo as a prelude to a ground assault to retake the city. As a result of that some 35,000 have turned up on the Turkish border looking to flee into Turkey.

You can't really blame them, this is what they're fleeing:


But yeah, the RuAF is definitely helping the Syrian ground forces push further into Aleppo, their campaign is working...but it is also causing an increase in refugees, but so does any major offensive.

[ikalugin]

I think that arty is a more important factor here. When you think about 1 bomb = 5 152mm shells. We drop less than 200 I would say every day, meaning that equivalent in 152mm shells is 1000. With ROF of 5/min this could be fired by a divizion of 20 in 10min.

[Betonov]

Meanwhile in Germany

[Jimbuna]

Anyone watching the BBC News the other night see the presentation on the matter of RuAF bombing civilian targets in Aleppo then returning within thirty minutes and bombing those carrying out rescue work?

Russia becoming involved in the area for the sake of gaining a naval base and Putin looking for revenge against sanctions imposed by the west has simply undermined what was a just effort to rid the Syrian people of a tyrant.

I'd have thought a united east/west front ridding the area of Daesh and then a united committment by said parties to seek a political end to the conflict would have been more sensible, surely?

What is happening currently will never bring about a peaceful solution to all the parties involved.

[Skybird]

Who said peace is in Russia's interest?

Merkel has been the one factor in Europe that Putin sometimes listened to, sometimes not. Her political weight also often stood in his way in the past months, the past year.

By waging war in Syria, he triggers more migrants fleeing - to Europe. Which is destabilising not only the EU, but Merkel as well.

What happens in Syria is: Putin bombing Merkel out of his way. After Merkel, only weak or far-left leaning politicians are left to follow her. This will losen fiscal discipline in Europe, destabilising it even more. In Italy, Greece, France, Spain, Portugal, everywhere the demands are growing to grow spending sand increase debts. Which likely will happen with germany not having much influence in the EU anymore. Germany is massively isolated over the handling of the mass migration.

Russia's interests are going far beyond Syria here. The main target the Russians are firing at - is the EU. Divide et impera. Also to deepen the rifts between EU and Turkey.

Its a strategy of being longtermed destructive to crack the EU. Not nice.. Not civilised. But functional. The Russians run Realpolitik in Syria. The West dreams and babbles. The Arabs get stunned by their own inner contradictions.

You see, it is in Russia's interest to increaser and intensify the mass migration to Europe as much as it can. The more migraiton, the greater the pressure and the damage to the EU, the weaker and more isolated Germany is in the EU.

[ikalugin]

Then BBC makes fine propaganda for RuASF, as it overstates our sortie generation (which is around 90/day for the air base and that is on the good days). With that sortie generation, an average of 2 FAB250 equivalent weapons used per sortie (which appears to be the case) our air campaighn effort is the same as 10min fire prep by an 152mm arty divizion. The divizion we have in Syria (amongst other things).

But was it really such an effort?

It is, if the "non islamist opposition" could negotiate as a single body without pre requisites for the negotiations. This was not possible untill recently.

[Rockstar]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

Anyone watching the BBC News the other night see the presentation on the matter of RuAF bombing civilian targets in Aleppo then returning within thirty minutes and bombing those carrying out rescue work?

Russia becoming involved in the area for the sake of gaining a naval base and Putin looking for revenge against sanctions imposed by the west has simply undermined what was a just effort to rid the Syrian people of a tyrant.

I'd have thought a united east/west front ridding the area of Daesh and then a united committment by said parties to seek a political end to the conflict would have been more sensible, surely?

What is happening currently will never bring about a peaceful solution to all the parties involved.

I have a hard time believing Tartus is anywhere near a main objective of the Russians. Sure it would nice too say to the world, " hey we have a navy base in Syria", but its no Subic Bay. Its one short pier in a small shallow harbor, you might fit a supply ship and a small escort there.

[ikalugin]

If we assume that each object is destroyed by 4 FAB250s equivalents (12 FAB250 equivalents per sortie then), then the comparison indeed does change, leading to the air effort closer to 40min or arty fire per day rather than 10.

[Skybird]

Syria also is a showcase for Russia'S grown military capabilties, some of which have been improved ramatically since the Goergia war. Seen that way, not so much what they do but how they do it, is a message to NATO, and a warning:

For exmaple it was said the Russians wouold be unable to send bigger expedionary forces outside the reahc of a comprehensive rail network. But most logistics needed to form up the Russian presenc ein Syria, was via aiurlift and sea transport - and at a surprisingly fast pace.

Russia uses a quite economic mix of smart ammunitions and dumb iron bombs. Where the Americna forces some time ago rang the alarm bell once again that their stockpile of smart ammo was rapidly depleting, the Russians do only one in five shots with smart ammo - but this with great effect. They have them, they are capable in using them, and they know what resource management means.

Maybe the most alarming news: the Russian airforce demonstrates its ability to closely live-coordinate CAS with Syrian and Iranian ground forces. A capability that just last autumn NATO assumed they would not even have to a bigger level with even their own forces.

Submarine launched cruise missiles were used to smash relatively small unimportant targets in the past. These targets were such that they did not really justify an expensive strike with cruise missiles. But they were fired from small fast attack boats, and submarines, telling NATO: we have them, we can strike your countries with them, and you have a hard time to find these small platforms from which they get fired.

A British commentator some weeks ago also noticed what Putin may reveal he does not have: capable sea-based air power. The Russian aircraft carrier is not there, although described to be ideal for operating offshore Syria. Maybe the thing is not operating as well as they want to make the world believe?! Or the fleet is not able to protect it efficiently? The Med still is NATO's pond.

The Russians' role in syria cannot be understood correctly if just focussing the view on syria alone. What they really do, is splitting Europe, and at the same time communicating to NATO by non-verbal communication, so to speak. And what they say, is a famous Romulan quote: "We are back."

The pace their military is capable to operate with, is stunning. The sortie rate of their air forces has dramatically increased.

Just days ago a NATO general has warned that in case of a Russian attack they would overrun most of the former Warsaw Pact states without NATO being able to do anything about it. Some American Strykers more or less will not make a difference.