Here we go again-Ukraine once again pt2

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by mapuc

It has been said that with this huge 61 bn(*) package Ukraine can fight an intensive war against Russia for 18-20 month.

* The Senate approved a package around 61 bn

Which must mean that they the Ukrainian will receive 10 package of 6 bn each.

Markus

With the rest of the west giving aid, Ukraine can fight longer than 18–20 months.

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Dargo

With the rest of the west giving aid, Ukraine can fight longer than 18–20 months.

None of us common people know what Putin will do, when he understand he has lost the war ?

If he lose, he still have the possibility to order general mobilization as a last thing.

Markus

[mapuc]

Markus

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by mapuc

None of us common people know what Putin will do, when he understand he has lost the war ?

If he lose, he still have the possibility to order general mobilization as a last thing.

Markus

So another 450,000 Russian military personnel and over 10,000 Russian armoured vehicles will bring victory this time?

The mood now is that the Russians can go on like this forever, but they can't. They are really reaching their limits. Together we have economies 250 times the size of the Ukrainian economy, and we are 25 times the size of the Russian economy. This war will go on for a while, start by increasing our defence, spending a little bit for artillery shells. Ukraine is a very traditional war. It depends on the artillery whether or not people die at the front. Many artillery shells are made in Europe, but because of existing orders they are sent to other continents! In a wartime like now, I think there should be a little less capitalism and a little more state planning about strategic supplies like artillery.

This also applies to the US, the US has many Patriot anti-aircraft batteries stored in Western depots, but they are not used there. Germany could provide Taurus missiles with which to hit Russian logistics behind the lines. A Ukrainian long-range strike capability is now the only way to prevent a summer offensive. In the US especially, but also in general, too much is spent on incredibly complicated and expensive defence platforms, whereas now in Ukraine sometimes just ammunition, bulletproof vests and other simple items are needed.

[Skybird]

If only we also had 250 times their determination.

Somebody said early in the war the Russians probably were the best soldiers in the world. Because of their malicous brutality, unscrupulousness, lack of compassion, total disrespect for humanistic values, and total servility. Pair this with the simpel fact that the overwhelming majority of Russian civilians believe the Putinian narration.

I recall they reported a phone call from early ion the war, at the time of the massacre at Butcha. A Russian soldier phoned with his wife and told her they demand him and other soldiers to massrape captured females. And the wife only said "Okay, but use a condom".

That the sort of mentality we deal with. Dulled, brutal, submissive, devoted to "fate". Good luck with wanting to defeat it by being civilised and smart.

Again, Putin is admired and suppported by the very huge majority of Russians.

Since two years I keep heraign the nRusians cant do this, the Russians cant sustain that. And here we are today. And every month passing by the Ukraine falls more apart and goes into ruins.


Its now 170 million Russians against around 33 million remaining Ukrainians. And a defence industry blossoming in Russia while that in Ukraine is on the brink of going extinct. And Russia being autark in the supply of civilian services and food, while Ukraine has lost any sovereignty and now is hopelessly dependent on the good will from outside.



Next winter when power and heating is needed and there is none left anymore - that is when it will break Ukraine's neck at the latest. Over 80% of their power production already now is down, mpost of that: destroyed beyond repoair. Possible repairs will be longterm efforts, interferred with by Russia. The Russians will make a pig's breakfast of the rest, too.



If only we would be 250 times more determined, yes. Instead, our political leadership is corrupted and intimidated and selfish and rotten from the skin's surface to the core of every bone.

[mapuc]

In at least three places along the front line in eastern Ukraine, Ukrainian soldiers have had to retreat.

This is due to a 'deteriorating' military situation.

This is what Ukraine's chief of defense, Oleksandr Syrskyj, said in an update on social media on Sunday.

Russian forces have been advancing eastward for some time.

https://ekstrabladet-dk.translate.go..._x_tr_pto=wapp

Markus

[Jimbuna]

Russia's losses in Ukraine as of April 28: Over 1000 troops and 43 artillery systems

Russia's losses in the war in Ukraine as of Sunday morning, April 28, amount to 1096 troops, bringing the total number of Russian army losses since the beginning of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine to 466,150. In addition, the Ukrainian Armed Forces destroyed 11 tanks, 20 armoured combat vehicles and 43 enemy artillery systems, according to the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

The total combat Russian losses from 24.02.22 to 28.04.24 are estimated to be:

・personnel - about 466,150 (+1096) Russian troops were killed;

・tanks - 7279 (+11) units;

・armored combat vehicles - 13,991 (+20) units;

・artillery systems - 11,948 (+43) units;

・MLRS - 1,050 (+1) units;

・air defense systems - 7,756 (+1) units;

・airplanes - 348 units;
・helicopters - 325 units;

・UAVs of operational and tactical level - 9,507 (+22) units;

・cruise missiles - 2,124 units;

・ships/boats - 26 units;

・submarines - 1 unit;

・motor vehicles and tankers - 16,065 (+46) units;

・special equipment - 1,971 (+3) units.

Situation at frontline

In Ukraine, there were 88 combat clashes on the front line over the past day. The enemy continues active assaults in the Donetsk region.

According to the Institute for the Study of War, Russian occupiers are advancing north of Avdiivka and west of Donetsk. Additionally, aggressors are pressing on most fronts. However, Ukrainian defenders repel enemy attacks and assaults.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...0fb4b436&ei=10

[mapuc]

Do you believe this man ?



Markus

[Skybird]

He has many valid points, especially about the past events that led Russia to attack.



There were red lines ignored by the West, by mere arrogance and the beloeive one could afford to just ignore Russian protest. And it was stupoid an idea to invite Georgia and Ukraine into NATO or give them that perspective just becasue one thought that Ruzssia wouldn't do anything about it and becasue one claimed to be on the superior idealistic mission.


This is what happens when absolute moralism replaces sound reason and Realpolitik .


The reason why I was caught on the wrong foot 26 months ago, was not the war itself, but the timing and superficial excuse they went to war over. I expected them to construct a more solid "alibi".Reasons why they woudl launch a big war I had given myself beforek, too. So, the individual circumstances caught me off guard, not the fact itself that they went to war.

Balkans, anyone? Serbia?Could become a big headline sooner than most people think, I think.



The arch sin of the Wets is since decades that it terirbyl fails in seeign things throuzgh the eyes of its enemies. It always assume the others see the same thing through the Wetsenr glasses and thus come to the same ocnclsuions like the West. I find this ridiculous since the end of my school days already. First know your enemy better to then understand how he really thinks. But self-importance and arrogance blind us in the West time and time again.

[mapuc]

As I said to my friend on FB(it was he who posted the video on his wall)I hope he is wrong about the outcome of the war, that Ukraine will, if not winning the war, drag Russia to the negotiation table due to massive human and material cost.

Markus

[Skybird]

The humanitarian cost is of no concern for the fascists in the Kremlin. So the question is with what Ukraine could dream to set the conditions in negotiations. Russia has 5-6 times the population of Ukraine now, better economy, and nuclear weapons.

Negotiating...?

The winner does what he wants. The looser suffers what he must.

[Dargo]

NATO hopeful about impact of aid to Ukraine despite steady loss of ground

Ukrainian President Zelensky was especially relieved when the United States agreed after months to a $61 billion aid package for his country. At the same time, the situation on the front is deteriorating by the day. “Supplies are starting to come in, but the pace must be stepped up,” Zelenskyy said today. He received in Kyiv NATO chief Stoltenberg. The Norwegian acknowledged that the alliance has not delivered on its military promises, such as providing sufficient ammunition, in recent times. But that is now going to change, according to the secretary-general. “This is going to make a difference,” Stoltenberg referred to the U.S. aid package. “Just as the lack of support has also made a difference,” by which he was referring to the Russian advance in recent months.

The head of Ukraine's security service Kyrylo Budanov previously predicted that May and June are going to be a difficult period for Ukraine. After all, the Russian army has more weapons and manpower that are being fully deployed at this time, resulting in ground gains. Although fighting is going on all along the front, the fiercest fighting is focused mainly around Avdiivka and Khasiv Yar. “And that last place in particular is of strategic importance,” says former Army Commander in Chief Mart de Kruif. “If the Russians manage to capture that place, they can choose whether to push on to the west or deflect north toward Kharkiv. From Avdiivka you can only head west.”

The American think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) also sees the Ukrainian army retreating and Russia gaining ground in the regions around Avdiivka and Khasiv Yar. Still, it is thought that it will remain only relatively small pinpricks. “Ukrainian defences will not be overwhelmed, and the Russians will not overrun Ukraine.” Meanwhile, the ISW sees Ukraine sending additional troops toward Kharkiv to defend the city should the Russians decide to move toward Ukraine's second-largest city. Although, it is believed that the Russian army will not be able to completely capture the city. Around both Avdiivka and Chasiv Yar, the Russians are fighting with large divisions of up to ten thousand men and with great force. And so it makes sense to De Kruif that Ukraine is giving up ground. “The Ukrainians are not going to fight themselves to death here. They are not putting their people where they cannot win and are saving their forces for the big Russian offensive. Besides, the really big cities are still in Ukrainian hands, and they are behind a strong defence line. So Russia is gaining ground, but it is not a break-in, breakthrough or break-out,” De Kruif said.

The $61 billion in U.S. aid should give Ukraine more clout at the front. De Kruif thinks that could begin to happen in the near future. “The support is certainly not coming too late. The first shells have already arrived, and that will start to lead to a slower Russian advance. In addition, with those shells, they can inflict greater losses on the Russians.” “Actually, we are now in a phase where we are waiting for Western support to become effective, but where Ukraine is still forcibly giving up ground.” Although the momentum is now in the hands of the Russians, the predicted major offensive is, for now, delayed. Think tank ISW expects the offensive in late May, early June. Former commander De Kruif does not dare put his hand in the fire for it. “Such a major offensive you spend weeks and months planning. It's not a game where you push a button and it happens. It could be in a few weeks, or it could be in the summer. Such an offensive also depends on the weather.” In its daily report, the ISW writes that a well-supplied Ukrainian army should be able to stop this offensive. “But before all the support reaches the front, we could be weeks or months away,” de Kruif said. https://nos.nl/collectie/13965/artik...terreinverlies

[mapuc]

Sad to say, I think Skybird is right about his statement on how Russian sees their soldiers "The humanitarian cost is of no concern for the fascists in the Kremlin"

It wouldn't matter if Russia loses additional 500.000 men.

Markus