Malaysian Airlines MH317

[Oberon]

Originally Posted by mapuc

Now I write with a suspicious mind

Is that a smart move to make? The Russian could make this FDR "disappear"
(if it was shot down by separatist using an advanced Russian SAM-system)

Wouldn't it have been better to hand it over to a third party...let say Switzerland

Markus

Well, it was (again allegedly) pro-Russian forces that found it, so they're not going to send it to Kiev. If Moscow makes it disappear then it will just make itself look guilty. No, Moscow will play ball, and if it is discovered that it was shot down by a Buk SAM then it will claim that the Ukrainians shot it down, and the Ukraine will claim that it was Russia or Russian equipment given to the pro-Russian forces, and so on and so forth.
Of course, as Jim has correctly pointed out, there will be allegations against Moscow of tampering with the FDR (if, and I stress IF, the reports that it has been sent to Moscow are true) and lots of finger pointing but evidence will be harder to come by.

[nikimcbee]

http://news.sky.com/story/1302864/ma...h-295-on-board

[Skybird]

Most likely shot-down, most likely by separatists, most likely via BUK launchers conquered from Ukrainian forces.

Why flight routes over a shooting-war region are not changed, to save some drops of fuel, is beyond me. After yesterday's killing of an Ukrainian SU-25 at the latest - which flew at several thousand meters - this should have become a most obvious and natural step.

FYI, the Buk is better known ander the NATO-code SA-11 Gadfly. It is operated by Russian and Ukrainian forces as well. the system can track and fioght targets at altitudes between 100m and max. 22km, typical engagement ranges are 10-20 km, maximum tracking range around 35 km. The system was fielded in the mid-60s, later versions were produced until the late 90s.

[kranz]

Ukrainians intercepted a transmission between GRU officers and separatists confirming that it was the separatists who shot the plane down.

[mapuc]

@ Skybird

"conquered from Ukrainian forces"

This was new to me

I have so far heard that they got this SAM-system from the Russian

Markus

[aergistal]

Originally Posted by Skybird

Most likely shot-down, most likely by separatists, most likely via BUK launchers conquered from Ukrainian forces

Sad news... Isn't the SA-11 equipped with an IFF interrogator however? What were they thinking.

[Jimbuna]

Anyone know definitively yet what really ocurred?

[Wolferz]

Malaysia Airlines might want to take a closer look at their pilots. Seems to me that they have a few too many nuts flying their aircraft.

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by mapuc

@ Skybird

"conquered from Ukrainian forces"

This was new to me

I have so far heard that they got this SAM-system from the Russian

Markus

The rebels have claimed they conquered "sophisticated SAM systems" during attacks of theirs earlier. Wikipedia says Russia has around 250 such systems, the Ukraine around 60.

On the IFF interrogator, there are half a dozen different technical systems of the SA-11, with developments from the early 60s to the mid-90s. Possible that some versions have that tech equipment, others not - I do not know.

Also, if it was fired from a system formerly owned by Ukraine, maybe the switched off IFF deliberately in order to not get locked out when targetting Ukrainian planes.

Another idea I have oin mind as well: the shot-down has been deliberately done by Ukrainian forces - so that pressure can be mounted against Russia and the separatists and turning global opinion agaiunst them. It would be the same tactics like Hamas currently uses once again in Gaza when tryin g to increase the number of killed Palestinian Arabs in Gaza. Saakashvili did the same in Georgia, ordering his missile artillery to bombard civilian appartment buildings at night, with sleeping civilians inside, and then accusing the Russians of having committed the warcrime and again demanding NATO to militarily intervene against Russia. So you think that scenario of the Ukrainians shooting down a plane with foreigners is unlikely? For politicians, nothing is unlikely, and similiar stuff already has happened before in the Ukraine, on the Maidan, with the snipers. Kiew-loyal snipers opened fire there, causing many deaths in short time. Later, separatists, even Russian special commandos were accused, with the hints and known radio com protocols speaking against that. - I don't say the plane got shot down this way - I only remind of that it is war, and war is the biggest party of all - anything goes.

[mapuc]

@ Skybird, thank you for your answer.

Some hours ago I was in a discussion with a Danish local politician

He want the airforce from NATO to conduct some SEAD-operation in that area

I have asked him and others if they have any idea of what kind of consequences this could lead to.

I'm a pacifist so any military solution is not a good solution. Or it has to be the very last thing we do.

Should we let they who did this go free?

Of course not. We should track them and prosecute them

Markus

[Skybird]

NATO has no business there. Nor do I want it to send any horse into that race. The last thing we need is Russian and NATO soldiers starting to exchange fire. The Ukraine is no NATO territory or member, and I hope it never becomes that, and NATO is no global fire brigade, I am already pissed by the way it entangled itself in Afghanistan, Libya. And now a NATO air war right on the Russian border? Much speaks for the Russian forces already being engaged in the Ukraine, militarily. So think twice before sending NATO forces into their action zone. You are talking war with Russia here.

Tell your Danish politicians he is an idiot if he wants a military intervention by NATO in that environment. Sorry for being rude, but nothing better he deserves. He's an idiot.

NATO is for defending NATO members within the treaty territory's borders. That, and nothing more. Not Afghanistan. Not the Western Pacific. Not North Africa. Not the Eastern Ukraine.

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Skybird

NATO has no business there. Nor do I want it to send any horse into that race. The last thing we need is Russian and NATO soldiers starting to exchange fire. The Ukraine is no NATO territory or member, and I hope it never becomes that, and NATO is no global fire brigade, I am already pissed by the way it entangled itself in Afghanistan, Libya. And now a NATO air war right on the Russian border? Much speaks for the Russian forces already being engaged in the Ukraine, militarily. So think twice before sending NATO forces into their action zone. You are talking war with Russia here.

Tell your Danish politicians he is an idiot if he wants a military intervention by NATO in that environment. Sorry for being rude, but nothing better he deserves. He's an idiot.

NATO is for defending NATO members within the treaty territory's borders. That, and nothing more. Not Afghanistan. Not the Western Pacific. Not North Africa. Not the Eastern Ukraine.

First of all, I'm not going to tell my FB-friend he is an.... I guess he was filled with angry feeling, like many of us had when we got the news

I totally agree NATO has absolutely nothing to do in that area. However I have this feeling in my stomach that we are heading that way.

Markus

[Stealhead]

I would not discount the possiabilty that the Ukrainians did this on accident. Such a mistake has been made in the past by Ukrainian air defence during a time of peace. I honestly feel if this was thier mistake they would not be willing to admit it.

The Russians would also want to avoid blame if it was due. At any rate I am sure it was a mistake. I consider both sides claims as questionable.

Seems like most media is quick to blame Russia but with what solid evidance?

[Betonov]

Originally Posted by Stealhead

Seems like most media is quick to blame Russia but with what solid evidance?

Our media is also fond of blaming the Russians. In a country with a pro-russian attitude. The comments sections are about to explode

[kranz]

Originally Posted by Stealhead

I would not discount the possiabilty that the Ukrainians did this on accident.

I wouldn't discount it either. After all, they have recently shot down their own Su-25 (thinking it was a pro-russian separatist fighter) and An-26 (thinking it was a pro-russian separatist transport plane.).

Oh wait...