UK Politics Thread

[STEED]

^Some one on the radio said this is the EU's last warning from the voters. Can not see what he was getting at. I can not speak for Europe but here in the UK the EU elections are a form of a protest vote against Westminster.

Home Secretary Sajid Javid has become the latest MP to join the race for the Conservative Party leadership.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48425441


Tory leadership candidates so far

Boris Johnson 70%
Esther McVey 20%
Jeremy Hunt 65%
Rory Stewart 40%
Matt Hancock 40%
Dominic Raab 50%
Andrea Leadsom 35%
Michael Gove 50%
Sajid Javid 70%
(% is my predictions so far)

[MGR1]

Originally Posted by MGR1

I call the results for Scotland's six MEP seats as follows:

SNP: 3

Brexit Party: 2

Last seat could go either Green, Tory or Labour - too close to call.

Ach, weel. I was half right so a 50% success rate is better than nothing!

Actual results for the six UK MEP slots allocated to Scotland:

SNP: 3

Lib Dem: 1

Brexit: 1

Tories: 1

(Scottish) Labour loses it's MEPs altogether.

Viewed through the perspective of Brexit that's four pro-Remain MEPs vs two pro-Leave MEPs. Naturally Sturgeon has started up her usual rhetoric but, to play devils advocate, she does have something of a point.


Mike.

[STEED]

Lets go back to 1994..

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Referendum_Party

Interesting to note even back then this...

Support was strongest in southern and eastern England, and weakest in inner London, northern England, and Scotland.

Very little change from then up to the Referendum a few years ago. I reckon if it happen back then the vote would had be close but I feel it would have been the remain that won. So long before Nigel was a by-word James Goldsmith got the ball rolling.

[MGR1]

Aaaaand.... it looks like the Alliance Party have the third of the three UK MEP slots allocated to Northern Ireland;

DUP: 1

Sinn Fein: 1

Alliance: 1

Ulster Unionists lose their MEP.

Viewed through the Brexit impasse that's one pro-Leave and 2 pro-Remain.

If the recent election results are taken as indicative of a second EU referendum then the results would be the same:

England and Wales vote to leave the EU whilst Scotland and Northern Ireland vote to remain but the UK as whole votes to leave, but with a closer result.

Mike.

[Jimbuna]

Originally Posted by MGR1

Aaaaand.... it looks like the Alliance Party have the third of the three UK MEP slots allocated to Northern Ireland;

DUP: 1

Sinn Fein: 1

Alliance: 1

Ulster Unionists lose their MEP.

Viewed through the Brexit impasse that's one pro-Leave and 2 pro-Remain.

If the recent election results are taken as indicative of a second EU referendum then the results would be the same:

England and Wales vote to leave the EU whilst Scotland and Northern Ireland vote to remain but the UK as whole votes to leave, but with a closer result.

Mike.

Yep, quite a contrast when you see which way the four parts of the Union voted.

[Skybird]

Is there any available data on age structures in voter groups? I mean which party got how many votes from which age group? It seems we have a very clear such effect. Over here, the CDU got the less votes the younger the age group was, and got the most votes from the oldest voters. A similiar effect, though less contrast-rich, for the SPD, the Green, the big winners in both elections here, got the most votes formt he youngest, and the fewest form the oldest, the AFD got the fewest from botht ver very young and very old, and more votes form the medium age groups.




It could mean that the young are done with allowing elder people doing policies for the eldferly at the ver yhigh cost of the young. Though I doubt that the young already interpret this in financial and economic terms and their own savings/pensions for their own future when they have turned old, but mostly consider climate and corrupt politics issues.

Some years ago I read that over 50% of the German electorate at that time already was older than 50 years.

Any age analysis for the UK, or the whole EU? I read that Greta-Land saw the Greens taking a steep dive.

[Jimbuna]

All I can find stops around 2017: https://www.google.com/search?rlz=1C...w=1920&bih=937

[STEED]

Tory leadership candidates so far (Updated)

Boris Johnson 70%
Esther McVey 20%
Jeremy Hunt 70%
Rory Stewart 35%
Matt Hancock 40%
Dominic Raab 55%
Andrea Leadsom 35%
Michael Gove 45%
Sajid Javid 70%
Kit Malthouse 50%

(% is my predictions so far)

[Jimbuna]

I'm surprised how low you rate Leadsoms and Goves chances, I'd put Malthouse well below them.

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

All I can find stops around 2017: https://www.google.com/search?rlz=1C...w=1920&bih=937

Yes, I saw that, but like you I was not able to find something beyond 2017 and - on EU matters - 2018. But maybe the trend is not broken in 2019 anyway, going by the old figures. As long as Brexit boredom has not re-thrown the dice.

[Jimbuna]

Originally Posted by Skybird

Yes, I saw that, but like you I was not able to find something beyond 2017 and - on EU matters - 2018. But maybe the trend is not broken in 2019 anyway, going by the old figures. As long as Brexit boredom has not re-thrown the dice.

What with the forthcoming leadership election and possible general election, I can't honestly see Brexit boredom becoming a reality. There is a lot of mileage in this on the run up to October 31st.

In fact, I believe we are nearer to a break up of the Union than we have ever been before.

[STEED]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

I'm surprised how low you rate Leadsoms and Goves chances, I'd put Malthouse well below them.

L & G have not said much at the moment as for M, i was watching a recent interview he gave. As time goes on and hearing more what they are thinking i will make changes.


I would be surprised if anyone else comes forward after this week as its getting full of runners.








I see the Labour top dogs are moving away from pushing for a general election in favor of a second referendum. Even Jezzer is, even if it is in the last line of his recent statement.

[Jimbuna]

Labour are as hopelessly split as the Tories which is the whole crux of the matter.

[Jimbuna]

I was watching the EU Election programme on Sunday evening when Alastair Campbell announced who he had voted for.

Tony Blair's former spin doctor says he has been expelled from the Labour Party after voting for the Liberal Democrats in the European elections.

Alastair Campbell, a lead campaigner for another Brexit referendum, said he was "sad and disappointed".

He said he voted Lib Dem "to try to persuade Labour to do right thing", but "always will be Labour" and appeal.

A Labour spokesman said supporting another party was "incompatible with party membership". https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-48434842

Now look below and get a feel for the total utter hypocrisy being dished out here.

We’ve tried to eliminate votes that were obviously free votes from this list. This should mean that the votes listed below are examples of where Mr Corbyn has rebelled against the Labour whip — but we can’t guarantee it.

During the Conservative-Liberal Democrat Coalition government
Terrorism Prevention and Investigation Measures Bill — Schedule 8 — Length of Transitional Period During Which Existing Control Orders Remain In Place — 29 Nov 2011

Mr Corbyn voted against the motion, along with 246 Conservative MPs.
Labour MPs voted overwhelmingly in favour, with 203 voting for the motion.
Mr Corbyn was one of three Labour MPs to vote against the motion, along with John McDonnell and Dennis Skinner.
Protection of Freedoms Bill — Clause 3 — Retention of DNA and Fingerprint Information — 10 Oct 2011

Mr Corbyn voted against the motion, along with 243 Conservative MPs.
Labour MPs voted overwhelmingly in favour, with 218 voting for the motion.
Mr Corbyn was one of two Labour MPs to vote against the motion, along with John McDonnell.
Terrorism Prevention and Investigation Measures Bill — Clause 27 — Any Additional Resources Required for Switch From Control Orders to TPIMs — 5 Sep 2011

Mr Corbyn voted against the motion, along with 256 Conservative MPs.
Labour MPs voted overwhelmingly in favour, with 208 voting for the motion.
Mr Corbyn was one of two Labour MPs to vote against the motion, along with John McDonnell.
Terrorism Prevention and Investigation Measures Bill — New Clause 1 — Relocation of Terrorist Suspects — 5 Sep 2011

Mr Corbyn voted against the motion, along with 260 Conservative MPs.
Labour MPs voted overwhelmingly in favour, with 210 voting for the motion.
Mr Corbyn was one of two Labour MPs to vote against the motion, along with John McDonnell.
During the last Labour government
Deferred Divisions — Social Security — 4 Mar 2010

Mr Corbyn voted against the motion, along with 147 Conservative MPs.
Labour MPs voted overwhelmingly in favour, with 238 voting for the motion.
Mr Corbyn was one of two Labour MPs to vote against the motion, along with David Drew.
Fiscal Responsibility Bill — 5 Jan 2010

Mr Corbyn voted against the motion, along with 146 Conservative MPs.
Labour MPs voted overwhelmingly in favour, with 264 voting for the motion.
Mr Corbyn was one of four Labour MPs to vote against the motion, along with Diane Abbott, Katy Clark and Linda Riordan.
Bill Presented — Fiscal Responsibility — New Clause 3 — 2010 Target — 9 Dec 2009

Mr Corbyn voted in favour of the motion, along with 145 Conservative MPs.
Labour MPs voted overwhelmingly against, with 279 voting against the motion.
Mr Corbyn was one of three Labour MPs to vote in favour of the motion, along with David Drew and Lynne Jones.
https://www.channel4.com/news/factch...-in-parliament

The above is not an exhaustive list but is a clear indicator as to why Steptoe is not fit to lead the UK and as long as he remains we will be stuck with the Tories.

[MGR1]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

In fact, I believe we are nearer to a break up of the Union than we have ever been before.

Depends if Brexit is a complete disaster or not. If you take polling as gospel then a No Deal Brexit could well push enough Scottish voters into supporting independence in a "might as well screw ourselves rather than letting others do so.." type of mentality.


The same could also apply in Northern Ireland.


Mike.