Iran and the bomb

[Skybird]

IRAN AND THE BOMB
https://think-again.org/der-iran-und-die-bombe/


After World War II, the four victorious powers, all in possession of nuclear weapons, sought to deny the remaining nations access to the bomb. This led to the creation of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in 1957 under the umbrella of the United Nations.

The IAEA enters into a bilateral agreement with the governments of the world - the Non Proliferation Treaty (NPT) - by which a country pledges to refrain from possessing bombs. To verify this pledge, governments then grant IAEA inspectors access to relevant nuclear facilities in their country - including Iran.

Uranium, nuclear power and the bomb

In this context, a few explanatory words on physics are necessary.

Uranium is a natural resource whose energy content per kilogram is a million times that of the same amount of coal or oil. This enormous potential can be released continuously over a period of years, for example to generate electricity in a nuclear reactor, or within a fraction of a second in the atomic bomb.

However, uranium as it occurs in nature is not suitable for either purpose. It consists of two components, only one of which provides energy. But it is this component, of all things, that accounts for less than one percent and must be "enriched" for technical applications: to 4 percent for common reactors, and to 90 percent for bombs.

So the low-enriched fuel for a reactor cannot be misused to build bombs, and a reactor cannot explode like a bomb for the same reason, although the opposite is often suggested. Neither in Chernobyl nor in Fukushima has there been a nuclear explosion.

A toothless tiger?

The IAEA advocates peaceful uses of nuclear energy. Now, to ensure that uranium is not misused for bombs, it must stop any enrichment beyond the said 4 percent. Enrichment facilities are huge; they consist of thousands of centrifuges that cannot be hidden in a garage from IAEA inspectors.

So how efficiently does the control work in practice? In the 1950s, only the four countries mentioned above, the USA, the USSR, the UK and France, had the bomb; today there are probably ten of them. The reason: The IAEA is a toothless tiger, because it can only control what is shown to it voluntarily. It cannot invade a country and comb it for weapons. And a state that has not signed an NPT can do whatever it wants anyway. There are half a dozen of those.

One of them is Israel. Its first prime minister, Ben Gurion, saw only one way to secure the existence of his small country surrounded by major hostile powers: Israel needed atomic bombs. If Arab tanks then came across the border, if bombs fell on Tel Aviv or Haifa, then one could strike back nuclear and destroy Damascus or Baghdad or Tehran. One would be ready for a devastating counterstrike. With conventional weapons, Israel would not be able to do that. So that's how the country developed nuclear bombs.

Enrichments in Iran

Naturally, nuclear-armed Israel is a thorn in the side of its neighbors. Some tried to catch up, apparently without success, with Israel also having a hand in it.

Iran had been bound by an NPT since the time of the Shah. It operated a number of facilities for research purposes that were regularly visited by IAEA inspectors. Activities intensified after the 1979 Islamic Revolution. In 2003, inspections revealed the presence of highly enriched uranium, which prompted the IAEA to call on Iran to immediately halt these activities - without success.

In 2005, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad came to power, and nuclear activities continued unabated. In 2007, Iran was publicly accused of breaching the signed NPT, and the UN Security Council imposed painful sanctions-including the freezing of foreign accounts. At the center of the criticism was a facility in Natanz, where uranium enrichment on a military scale is carried out on a hundred thousand square meters, underground in a concrete bunker. Here, thousands of centrifuges whirr away.

Iran's "peaceful" nuclear program.

Hassan Rouhani came to power in 2013. He sees his primary task as freeing the country from the sanctions that have been in effect for six years. Talks begin with the 5 members of the UN Security Council plus Germany, the "5+1". After two years of tough negotiations, they agree on a "Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)" that brings an end to sanctions against Iran and sets out boundary conditions for the nuclear program for the next 15 years. The peaceful nature of the program is emphasized in the comprehensive document. But there still remains a contradiction.

Even if Iran were interested in "peaceful nuclear physics research," it would not be a reason for enriching uranium on an industrial scale, as is done at Natanz or Fordow. The only reasonable assumption is that Iran is still working on making bombs despite the JCPOA, but that trade restrictions have been lifted for now.

That was the situation in July 2015, when the JCPOA was passed with much patting on the back, flags, and incense. Then in 2017, an inspection took place in which the IAEA confirmed Iran was in "full compliance."

Unquestionably military in nature

This good impression was disrupted in early 2018 when Israeli intelligence in Iran came across documents that revealed beyond doubt the military nature of the nuclear program. Among them was a PowerPoint presentation, apparently intended for policymakers, in which scientists report on plans to design, build and test five nuclear bombs of 10 kilotons explosive power each, as well as suitable launchers.

This finding was reason for Donald Trump to terminate the agreement. As of August 2018, trade sanctions were reimposed-not just on Iran, but on any companies now doing business with the country.

The celebrated Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action had thus gone up in smoke, and Iran was openly threatening to produce weapons-grade uranium in the fall of 2019; the centrifuges for it had already been obtained.

Enough for a bomb?

The current U.S. administration is also maintaining sanctions against Iran, "the JCPOA is dead" says President Biden, and rightly so.

Since January 2020, Iran has been unabashedly enriching and currently has, according to the IAEA, 87.5 kilograms of 60% uranium. What is this "good" for? The obvious guess: it is source material for bombs with 90% enrichment or more.

And lo and behold, during a visit in January 2023, IAEA inspectors actually discover minute amounts of 84% uranium, almost weapons grade. Where could that have come from? Most likely, it was simply produced in this very facility, since the step from 60% to 90% is comparatively small.

In preparation for the IAEA visit, the material enriched to over 60% was then removed from the inspected part of the plant, but apparently not thoroughly enough, and so the inspectors then encountered the banned substance. That's the way it might have been.

So it is quite possible that Iran is in possession of material to build a nuclear bomb. That would not be good news for the world, and certainly not for Israel.