A rigid counterinsurgency doctrine obscures Iraq’s realities

[Skybird]

http://www.armedforcesjournal.com/2007/11/3155836

This has started to be discussed at the Steal Beasts forum, and I found this article very worthy to be thought about. the author is a Ltn.Col. who actually has had first hand experience in Iraq and Baghdad. After the recent success, or what appears to be that, of operation "Surge", the author holds some critical scepticism of exactly this operation's theoretical background, and the importance of Gen. Patreus's "dogma".

So the influence of this narrative over the past four years has placed the Army in a box, defined by a simple syllogism: History, reduced into lessons learned, has shown the way to do counterinsurgencies right; the Army, up to and including 2006, has not followed the rule. However, it is now following the rule with the “troop surge” and victory will, therefore, come in time if there is support from the American people. Yet this perceived “right” way may be the wrong way, based on conditions on the ground that involve Iraqi politics and culture, American policy, troop strength, and tactical vulnerability.

Recommended reading.

Credit for finding it goes to Norfolk (SBP-forum).

[SUBMAN1]

Let me guess without reading - Trying to drum up negative energy about Iraq when all is positive coming out of there for the first time in years. Am I right?

-S

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by SUBMAN1

Let me guess without reading - Trying to drum up negative energy about Iraq when all is positive coming out of there for the first time in years. Am I right?

-S

I am not knowing about the Colonel's intention. He is the one having been in commanding position in Bagdad and talking by his experience, not me. I assume he just wants to point at a possible risk in becoming dogmatically one-sided, and seeing the tactcial situation by tunnel-view only.

[Skybird]

BTW, better don't try guessing without reading. It doesn't work. The Colonel speaks for the sake of your cause, not in favour of messing it up.

[Iceman]

I did not see a date when this was written?

Things in life are fluid...as I watched the news tonight it was the one year anniversary of Saddams execution....there was no mass riots...no big nuttin...nadda...a small ceremony in his home city.He did not become a martyr and the more I look at Iraq the more I think it's people realize....Iraq is no longer the same country it was...and I think more and more as people realize there are opportunitys and it will continue to change and "Evolve".....love that word.

Good read and it is folly to assume one war can be fought like any other...when the big variable are the people in that country.

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Iceman

I did not see a date when this was written?

Published November 2007. Also he refers to Patreus having taken command and the so-called "surge" being conducted already and having acchieved a reduction of street violence in those areas where the american troops are constantly present, and this result being seen in contrast to the years before in the media, so I think it has not been written much earlier than the release date. Probbably not earlier than late summer, or even autumn. the media did not start to report a decline in violence before late summer or early autumn.

Originally Posted by Iceman

Things in life are fluid...as I watched the news tonight it was the one year anniversary of Saddams execution....there was no mass riots...no big nuttin...nadda...a small ceremony in his home city.He did not become a martyr and the more I look at Iraq the more I think it's people realize....Iraq is no longer the same country it was...and I think more and more as people realize there are opportunitys and it will continue to change and "Evolve".....love that word.

Strange - just yesterday I read an editorial in a german magazine where the author was pointing at an obvious increase in numbers of people - that actually said that under saddam at least their was a feeling of a stable nation, security on the streets, a clear body of army, police, and even outside the sunni group there was an increase in numbers of people saying they wished Saddam back for these reasons (except the Kurds, obviously).

Not wishing to talk down the surge, but all it acchieved was a reduction of violence - and nothing beyond that. A sympötom has been supressed, the cause is still there. The emotional hate between the groups, the open bills, the fury over ethnic cleansing, the corrupted state structures and services, iran's interference and detemrination to widen its influence, the ambitions of Sadr, the hunger for power of the different sub-groups and factions - all that is still there, unchanged, and the government being under heavy pressure to report or at least invent the reports and data on progress that Bush needs to get money from congress. when Maliki just said that only 25% of Al Quaeda is left, this has to be seen in the light of this pressure he is under. And all this together is a very good reason why the colonel's warning must be taken serious. If the surge really was only successful because in it's operational area the condtions met Patreus' dogma (remember that I was the first on the board defending the man's plans when he still was back in the US, what named me as some kind of a "fan"), then the danger is real that if violence erupts in other parts of the country again, a reaction carried by this dogma of "the surge" maybe probably will fail, becasue t does not face a situation anymore for which it's dogmatic basis has been designed.

for this case you need to be prepared, and minimize the risk by implementing a wider tactical conception again than just Patreus' dogma. By that you increase your options "in case if..." - that is all the Colonel wants to acchieve. I personally do not think that the current drop in violence marks the beginning of the end of the drama part of the show. Enemies have been hit, and now are regrouping, evading, learning, and check how to adapt best. In Afghnaistan there also was it thought that it is over, and the enemy is gone. But now the battle stands worse than ever before, and no sign that the enemy is running out of breath. these concerns and writing an article to direct attention to these very realistic risks is much more responsible and realistic than just ranting that it all is just "to drum up negative energy about Iraq when all is positive coming out of there for the first time in years." All is positive coming out - extremely premature a statement that is.

What? Skybird just wishes for american failure, I hear some calling, calling again? No, not more I wish failure like this author does. I am just realistic, so is he - he has experienced the reality in Bagdad himself ("Brigade Combat Team executive officer in Tikrit and in 2006 as an Armored Reconnaissance Squadron commander in western Baghdad, including the important district of Ameriyah.")

[Iceman]

Originally Posted by Skybird

Published November 2007. Also he refers to Patreus having taken command and the so-called "surge" being conducted already and having acchieved a reduction of street violence in those areas where the american troops are constantly present, and this result being seen in contrast to the years before in the media, so I think it has not been written much earlier than the release date. Probbably not earlier than late summer, or even autumn. the media did not start to report a decline in violence before late summer or early autumn.

Strange - just yesterday I read an editorial in a german magazine where the author was pointing at an obvious increase in numbers of people - that actually said that under saddam at least their was a feeling of a stable nation, security on the streets, a clear body of army, police, and even outside the sunni group there was an increase in numbers of people saying they wished Saddam back for these reasons (except the Kurds, obviously).

Not wishing to talk down the surge, but all it acchieved was a reduction of violence - and nothing beyond that. A sympötom has been supressed, the cause is still there. The emotional hate between the groups, the open bills, the fury over ethnic cleansing, the corrupted state structures and services, iran's interference and detemrination to widen its influence, the ambitions of Sadr, the hunger for power of the different sub-groups and factions - all that is still there, unchanged, and the government being under heavy pressure to report or at least invent the reports and data on progress that Bush needs to get money from congress. when Maliki just said that only 25% of Al Quaeda is left, this has to be seen in the light of this pressure he is under. And all this together is a very good reason why the colonel's warning must be taken serious. If the surge really was only successful because in it's operational area the condtions met Patreus' dogma (remember that I was the first on the board defending the man's plans when he still was back in the US, what named me as some kind of a "fan"), then the danger is real that if violence erupts in other parts of the country again, a reaction carried by this dogma of "the surge" maybe probably will fail, becasue t does not face a situation anymore for which it's dogmatic basis has been designed.

for this case you need to be prepared, and minimize the risk by implementing a wider tactical conception again than just Patreus' dogma. By that you increase your options "in case if..." - that is all the Colonel wants to acchieve. I personally do not think that the current drop in violence marks the beginning of the end of the drama part of the show. Enemies have been hit, and now are regrouping, evading, learning, and check how to adapt best. In Afghnaistan there also was it thought that it is over, and the enemy is gone. But now the battle stands worse than ever before, and no sign that the enemy is running out of breath. these concerns and writing an article to direct attention to these very realistic risks is much more responsible and realistic than just ranting that it all is just "to drum up negative energy about Iraq when all is positive coming out of there for the first time in years." All is positive coming out - extremely premature a statement that is.

What? Skybird just wishes for american failure, I hear some calling, calling again? No, not more I wish failure like this author does. I am just realistic, so is he - he has experienced the reality in Bagdad himself ("Brigade Combat Team executive officer in Tikrit and in 2006 as an Armored Reconnaissance Squadron commander in western Baghdad, including the important district of Ameriyah.")

You are some piece of work Skybird.

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Iceman

You are some piece of work Skybird.

Aren't we all, everyone in his way...But since I only summarized the author's concerns for which he has some good reasons by experience, you probably wanted to adress him, not me.