Math q: variance from probability equation.

Gargamel · 09-09-12, 07:59 PM

So I'm drawing 3 cards to a pair, 2's and jokers are wild. How do I find the variance (and ergo the standard deviation) from just the equation? I know I can plug a sufficient sample size of results into a spreadsheet and get a close empirical result, but I want a theoretical value.

So what Is the variance on drawing to three of a kind, and only three if a kind?

(8/50)+(8/49)(42/50)+(8/48)(42/50)(42/49)

Also please correct the basic equation if that's off, it's been a while since I crunched probabilities. And no this isn't homework or anything. I firmly believe Hoyle casino 2006's betting strategies for multi hand poker (wild party) are flawed. If they wrote this strategy anywhere close to the no limit holden strategy they included, then its wrong for sure.

I'm just seeing results which are not approaching my calculated EV, wondering if the play is of such a high variance that it's more of a gamble than it's worth.

My contention is that drawing for the full house when dealt a natural two pair is wrong. I think one should draw 3 instead, saving one pair. Pays on 3 of a kind or higher.

3OK- x1
FH - x3
4OK- x3
5OK- x9

And obviously I'm assuming discarded cards get reshuffled. If they didn't odds would increase some. I have no data either way on this. Never really looked for them when playing 50 hands at once.

frau kaleun · 09-10-12, 06:29 PM

I was told there would be no math.

nikimcbee · 09-10-12, 06:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by frau kaleun

I was told there would be no math.

This.

Sailor Steve · 09-10-12, 07:31 PM

I can only quote one of the great philosophers of the modern era:

Don't think. Feeeeeeel!

Pisces · 09-11-12, 08:38 AM

Statistics is one of the few subjects in math that makes my head hurt. Besides that, I'm not fluent in card games/gambling. So sorry, can't help.

Gargamel · 09-11-12, 12:37 PM

Sigh.

frau kaleun · 09-12-12, 04:09 PM

I was just teasing. The answer is: 42

Sailor Steve · 09-12-12, 08:15 PM

Smile and bluff.

Gargamel · 09-13-12, 04:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by frau kaleun

I was just teasing. The answer is: 42

I do have my towel.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sailor Steve

Smile and bluff.

Hard to bluff in video poker. Glorified slot machine.

soopaman2 · 09-13-12, 04:44 PM

My brain hurts.

I really like boobies, and farts are funny.

Jimbuna · 09-13-12, 04:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sailor Steve

Smile and bluff.

Then pray

mapuc · 09-13-12, 05:13 PM

I for once know that you can't use probability on online casinos

For many month I played for fun at 888. I won alot of funny money

Hmm, it looks god, so I invested some bucks to the site and guess what....I won nothing.

There's a huge different between playing for fun and playing for real.

I played on their slots.

Markus

soopaman2 · 09-13-12, 05:26 PM

Sheesh Mapuc.

Real life casinos make most of thier money on slots.

The easiest game to rig.

Are you in a convenient location to gamble live?

I would suggest Texas Hold em, and blackjack live.

You have much more control, and you are sure that you are being screwed by lady luck, and not a random number generation algorithim that was built with the intention of screwing the player.

If you like sheer chance (in online games), try roulette, your chance is way more than slot games, despite whatever trick math randomizers the online companies employ.

Do it live in person, so much more a rush. But I am 70 minutes (50 if I speed!) from Atlantic City, easy for me to say that.

Seth8530 · 09-14-12, 07:23 AM

Give me some time and Ill try to come up with an answer... are you wanting probability of getting said cards in a row? or are you after something else?

09-09-12, 07:59 PM	#1
Gargamel Lucky Sailor Join Date: Oct 2010 Location: Rome Posts: 4,272 Downloads: 81 Uploads: 0	Math q: variance from probability equation. So I'm drawing 3 cards to a pair, 2's and jokers are wild. How do I find the variance (and ergo the standard deviation) from just the equation? I know I can plug a sufficient sample size of results into a spreadsheet and get a close empirical result, but I want a theoretical value. So what Is the variance on drawing to three of a kind, and only three if a kind? (8/50)+(8/49)(42/50)+(8/48)(42/50)(42/49) Also please correct the basic equation if that's off, it's been a while since I crunched probabilities. And no this isn't homework or anything. I firmly believe Hoyle casino 2006's betting strategies for multi hand poker (wild party) are flawed. If they wrote this strategy anywhere close to the no limit holden strategy they included, then its wrong for sure. I'm just seeing results which are not approaching my calculated EV, wondering if the play is of such a high variance that it's more of a gamble than it's worth. My contention is that drawing for the full house when dealt a natural two pair is wrong. I think one should draw 3 instead, saving one pair. Pays on 3 of a kind or higher. 3OK- x1 FH - x3 4OK- x3 5OK- x9 And obviously I'm assuming discarded cards get reshuffled. If they didn't odds would increase some. I have no data either way on this. Never really looked for them when playing 50 hands at once. __________________ Luck is a residue of Design. Last edited by Gargamel; 09-09-12 at 08:39 PM.

09-10-12, 07:31 PM	#4
Sailor Steve Eternal Patrol Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: High in the mountains of Utah Posts: 50,369 Downloads: 745 Uploads: 249	I can only quote one of the great philosophers of the modern era: Don't think. Feeeeeeel! __________________ “Never do anything you can't take back.” —Rocky Russo

09-11-12, 12:37 PM	#6
Gargamel Lucky Sailor Join Date: Oct 2010 Location: Rome Posts: 4,272 Downloads: 81 Uploads: 0	Sigh. __________________ Luck is a residue of Design.

09-12-12, 08:15 PM	#8
Sailor Steve Eternal Patrol Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: High in the mountains of Utah Posts: 50,369 Downloads: 745 Uploads: 249	Smile and bluff. __________________ “Never do anything you can't take back.” —Rocky Russo

09-13-12, 04:44 PM	#10
soopaman2 Der Alte Join Date: Sep 2011 Location: New Jersey, USA Posts: 3,316 Downloads: 61 Uploads: 0	My brain hurts. I really like boobies, and farts are funny. __________________ If Hitler invaded Hell I would make at least a favourable reference to the devil in the House of Commons. -Winston Churchill- The most fascinating man in the world.

09-10-12, 06:29 PM	#2
frau kaleun Rear Admiral Join Date: Nov 2009 Location: Skyri--oh who are we kidding, I'm probably at Lowe's. Again. Posts: 12,706 Downloads: 168 Uploads: 0	I was told there would be no math.

09-11-12, 08:38 AM	#5
Pisces Silent Hunter Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: AN9771 Posts: 4,892 Downloads: 300 Uploads: 0	Statistics is one of the few subjects in math that makes my head hurt. Besides that, I'm not fluent in card games/gambling. So sorry, can't help.

09-12-12, 04:09 PM	#7
frau kaleun Rear Admiral Join Date: Nov 2009 Location: Skyri--oh who are we kidding, I'm probably at Lowe's. Again. Posts: 12,706 Downloads: 168 Uploads: 0	I was just teasing. The answer is: 42

09-13-12, 05:13 PM	#12
mapuc Fleet Admiral Join Date: Sep 2003 Location: Denmark Posts: 17,917 Downloads: 37 Uploads: 0	I for once know that you can't use probability on online casinos For many month I played for fun at 888. I won alot of funny money Hmm, it looks god, so I invested some bucks to the site and guess what....I won nothing. There's a huge different between playing for fun and playing for real. I played on their slots. Markus

09-13-12, 05:26 PM	#13
soopaman2 Der Alte Join Date: Sep 2011 Location: New Jersey, USA Posts: 3,316 Downloads: 61 Uploads: 0	Sheesh Mapuc. Real life casinos make most of thier money on slots. The easiest game to rig. Are you in a convenient location to gamble live? I would suggest Texas Hold em, and blackjack live. You have much more control, and you are sure that you are being screwed by lady luck, and not a random number generation algorithim that was built with the intention of screwing the player. If you like sheer chance (in online games), try roulette, your chance is way more than slot games, despite whatever trick math randomizers the online companies employ. Do it live in person, so much more a rush. But I am 70 minutes (50 if I speed!) from Atlantic City, easy for me to say that. __________________ If Hitler invaded Hell I would make at least a favourable reference to the devil in the House of Commons. -Winston Churchill- The most fascinating man in the world.

09-14-12, 07:23 AM	#14
Seth8530 Captain Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: Tennessee Posts: 546 Downloads: 17 Uploads: 0	Give me some time and Ill try to come up with an answer... are you wanting probability of getting said cards in a row? or are you after something else? __________________