Here we go again-Ukraine once again pt2

[mapuc]

Markus

[Skybird]

I said I think there is a chance for a Russian operational breakthrough building up. And now, 6 hours ago, Colonel Reisner too starts to speak of the increasing chance of Russia acchieving a "major breakthrough".
What he also says is that the ATCAMS attacks done so far, four if I counted right, did not leave a lasting impression on the Russians. As was to be feared. A few scattered attacks here and there do not make much of a difference, I think you need enough ammo to fire them in volleys and several attacks every day, day for day, over weeks. The Ukrainians obviously do not have enough ATACMS for that. So its headline-creating pinpoint attacks and on targets that are beyond reach of a Ukrainian push on the ground. Which makes them tactically useless so far.
I am thinking longterm here, the ukrainians obviously are in a strictly defesnive position now, and get eaten up, see their ressources in material and men being badly mauled every day, so they use what they are being given for defending themselves by trying to hit the veins and sinews of the Russian pressure wave on the ground: command centres, air force, missiles, and logistics. But by allowing to get locked in this effort, they get mauled up even more. If they do not gain the initiative again (with what...?) they must and will lose. Themerciless law of attritional warfare. The counters go back to zero. Who reaches zero first, looses.



This all slowly turns into a real hopeless fight, I think. No degrees of freedom seem to to be left for the Ukrainian command at the front. If you have both arms engaged to merely hold the roof over your head, you have no more hands free for fighting.

https://www-n--tv-de.translate.goog/...en&_x_tr_hl=de

Scheiße. This could turn into the first decisive turning point of the war since autumn 2022.

To close this gap will cost the Ukrainians many more precious reserves, and I dont bet money that they will be successful in this attempt.

A few days ago, military economist Marcus Keupp told the Kölnische Rundschau newspaper that Russia had lost the war strategically. By the fall of 2023 at the latest, it was clear that the Russians' production rate would not be able to keep up with the attrition rate. How do you see that?


It's not my place to comment on others. However, I would like to warn against hoping for a turnaround in the war, which we haven't seen yet. We have to take the situation seriously and prepare for the worst-case scenario. German Defense Minister Pistorius recently pointed out that Russia is obviously producing more material than it needs for the war. What is the purpose of this overproduction? Are they already preparing for the next war? If you don't consider such possibilities, the surprise can be nasty. We can't say we didn't know.

[Rockstar]

I’m not so sure what we see happening could be considered a breakthrough. Penetration of certain defensive positions? Yes. But a breakthrough is when those defensive lines are penetrated then rapidly exploited. I would hardly consider slogging 1/2 a click per day as a breakthrough. I would think too the toll on Russia manpower would be extremely heavy to get as far as they have. As one Ukrainian General put it, it’s not about holding cities and monuments, it’s about killing Russian soldiers.

[Skybird]

I did not say this is a big breakthrough, I said two or three days ago that there is a big danger of this leading to an operational breakthrough, and Reisner now says its a break into the second and third defense lines which are not as well prepared as the - by now disappeared - first line they had build since 2014, and which were meant for delay only. Reisner also said this could turn into as he called it a major breakthrough. But the Russians have penetrated 2nd and 3rd lines, and are widening and deepening the breach.

Ukraine obviously finds it extremely difficult to scratch together any reserves able to fill the gap and seal it, while the Russians work on it.

The Russian pressure will increase further, due to symbol-heavy May 9th festivities.


Reisner said the situaiton is so depseratwe that the ATACMS attrackiugnCirmea were little help - the firepower must be focussed on sealing the breach now. If they fail, this could be the beginning of the end and lead to the collapse of the whole front int hat district. Hence my fear of what I phrase as "operational breakthrough". If the Russian succeed with this breach, then it gets a real big thing.


In the past two weeks Russia penetrated defences in that sector up to 20km deep, I read. They clean their path with their damn glide bombs. And there can be no doubt that the Ukrainians also take heavy casualties. Its just not as prominently reported in our news.

[em2nought]

Originally Posted by August

That is pretty condescending considering that the Ukrainians are bleeding and dying in real life for lack of ammo to fight their invaders. Maybe you think this is all some grift but they are the ones shedding blood here, not us.

Have you ever read anything about the American delegation to the French court of Louis the XVI during our revolution? Talk about whiny. Our pleas for assistance were far more numerous, extensive and desperate than anything coming from the Ukrainians.

Zelensky is no George Washington. I guess if he was they'd be tearing down his statue at Columbia.

I'm thinking lots of grift, but I'm more worried about Sleepy Joe managing to get us into WW3. I bet he even has the same pajamas.

[Reece]

Those pajamas have a nice sheen to them!

[August]

Originally Posted by em2nought

Zelensky is no George Washington. I guess if he was they'd be tearing down his statue at Columbia.

I'm thinking lots of grift, but I'm more worried about Sleepy Joe managing to get us into WW3. I bet he even has the same pajamas.

No he's not but at this point in the American revolution not too many people thought all that much of George either having just lost a major part of his army while getting his butt kicked out of Long Island and Manhattan by the British.

[ET2SN]

Here's another deep dive from the Naval War College. Keep in mind this presentation is from 18 months ago, which brings up its own point- not much is changing.

[Jimbuna]

'Our victory is inevitable!': Moscow exhibition showcases Western tanks captured from Ukraine

Russian state TV aired footage on Sunday (28 April) showcasing preparations for an upcoming open-air exhibition of Western equipment captured in Ukraine.

The month-long exhibition, scheduled to open in Moscow today (1 May), will feature 30 armoured vehicles, captured from various countries, including the United States. the UK, Germany, France, Sweden, Australia, and South Africa.

Described as a celebration of Russia’s success “against Ukrainian militants and their Western supporters,” the video depicted heavy trucks transporting multi-ton vehicles and cranes lifting them into position in Victory Park on Poklonnaya Hill, Moscow's designated venue for the display.

Signs at the exhibition read: “Our victory is inevitable!”

Among the showcased vehicles was a Leopard tank, which reportedly encountered an anti-tank mine during a battle near Berdychi in Ukraine, resulting in damage to its right track.

Russian state TV channel RU-RTR also shared footage of an Abrams tank still awaiting delivery to Moscow for the exhibition. According to the broadcaster, this tank was hit by an anti-tank missile crew from the Center group of forces under Berdychi.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...fff3701b&ei=44