Strike on North Korea

[Onkel Neal]

Originally Posted by Méo

Well I think it's more than obvious that a first strike with a nuclear weapon during peace time would be the most horrifying thing mankind would ever witness.

I don't think he's stupid enough to ignore that his reign and his own person would be totally annihilated within minutes or very few hours at best following this act.

I think his military leaders are not stupid enough to ignore all the arsenal the U.S. and their allies have:

Nuclear warhead thrown from everywhere: planes, ships & submarines, ICBM, maybe satellites (even if prohibited) and that's without other means we ignore...

The U.S. still has by far the best military technology whether it is reconnaissance satellites, missiles that are capable of delivering an underground nuclear strike, all kind of spies systems, data processing means, etc.

My personal belief is that he's doing this as a power demonstration over his people and to show (everything is about appearance here) that he could handle any threat.

But he knows (at least his close advisors know) that it wouldn't take long before being completely annihilated in a full scale total war.

You may be right, but again, there is a lot of delusion and crazy in that regime. His military leaders are stupid beyond belief, you know, the ones we always see in the photo ops with Dear Leader, clapping and hopping around like hysterical schoolgirls. Remember a guy named Saddam Hussein? When Bush Jr. gave him an ultimatum he just casually ignored it.

You and I know what would happen if NK launched a nuke, but I cannot say this fruitcake or his simpering toadies really have the same grasp on reality, they are living in a fantasy world.

[Méo]

Originally Posted by Onkel Neal

but again, there is a lot of delusion and crazy in that regime.

Of course, if there would be a stronger word than pathetic, it would have his place here.

I don't know if you can l see this, but seriously, it's both absurd and laughable.

https://ici.tou.tv/les-grands-report...?lectureauto=1

At 1:15 seems like workers with their hands up trying to look happy, you see this and you're like jeez, there must have a firing squad behind the camera giving them orders.

At 1:19 some ''athletic'' guys who plunge in a competitive pool, when I first saw their splash I started laughing so hard!! one of them even loses his swimming cap...

Originally Posted by Onkel Neal

Remember a guy named Saddam Hussein? When Bush Jr. gave him an ultimatum he just casually ignored it.

And that's the problem here. U.S. military interventionism (justified or not) is well known all over the world whether it is the first Korean war, the Bay of Pigs Invasion, Vietnam war, Afghanistan war, Iraq war (twice) and that's without talking about all other ''minors'' interventions.

So I'm pretty sure that he must be saying something like: ''if the evil western imperialism dares to do the same kind of thing here, we will be able to nuke them'', reinforcing his image of power.

So like I said, my belief is that it's a strategic defensive decision.

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Onkel Neal

You may be right, but again, there is a lot of delusion and crazy in that regime. His military leaders are stupid beyond belief, you know, the ones we always see in the photo ops with Dear Leader, clapping and hopping around like hysterical schoolgirls. R

They are clapping and hopping for their lives, Neal. Kim has executed people for not applauding him enough or showing a lack of enthusiasm in celebrating him.

Which only shows how nuts Kim really is. Trust any treaty with him, and you play with your life. And he will demand more. And then more.

[Jimbuna]

Could be that China has woken up to the realisation that matters are starting to or could soon escalate out of control and have come off the fence a little.

China's foreign minister has told his North Korean counterpart that Pyongyang should stop carrying out nuclear and missile tests, hours after fresh sanctions were agreed by the United Nations Security Council.
Wang Yi said he urged Ri Yong-ho to abide by UN resolutions in a meeting on Sunday in the Philippines.
He did not say how Mr Ri replied.
Saturday's resolution banning North Korean exports and limiting investments in the country was passed unanimously.
Mr Wang said sanctions were needed, but "are not the final goal", and he urged dialogue. He said he had told North Korea to remain calm, and not provoke the international community with more tests.
The Chinese envoy also urged the US and South Korea not to increase tensions, saying that the situation was at a "critical point", but also a juncture at which talks could be resumed.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-40842068

[Skybird]

The chinese influence on Kim gets hopelessly overestiumated. The Chinese have NK not under their ocntorl anymore since longer time.

Also, why trusting any Chiense-brokere deal when seeing the groiwng tensions between China and the US? NK is a nice way for China to keep a dagger in America's pacific flank. They may have an interest to get NK back under co9ntrol. But they have no interest at all to ease the pain for the US.

[Jimbuna]

Only time will tell Sky but I've got a feeling that the Chinese are uneasy on the option Trump might take against NK militarily and also have a thought on what a US economic blockade on themselves could do.

Much less painless to tackle Kim directly themselves and save the potential for a whole lot of military and economic bother.

[mapuc]

China is NK's big brother so to say. I guess China has every interest in easing it, ´cause they know if a war breaks out between USA and NK it's highly possible that China would be dragged into this war.

It could also be as I have mentioned before that China takes on NK them self, better take care of the little brother , than start a regional or perhaps a global war.
(this is what I think)

Markus

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

Only time will tell Sky but I've got a feeling that the Chinese are uneasy on the option Trump might take against NK militarily and also have a thought on what a US economic blockade on themselves could do.<br />
<br />
Much less painless to tackle Kim directly themselves and save the potential for a whole lot of military and economic bother.

<br />
<br />
Yes, they may be uneasy. But that does not give them back their influence over Kim. Its not just a political fact calculation. Its also - and maybe even more - a psychological thing with Kim himself. Stubborness. "My will is bigger than yours".

BTW, most of the latest equipment for these tremendous missile improvements we have seen in the past weeks and months - is said to come from China. Not Russia - China. Without them, the Korean advances, and so rapidly, cannot be reasonably explained. The Chinese probably tick by the same wisom Ameca ticke din the past: "He may be a bloody bastard, but he is our bloody bastard."

I think nothing in the Korean problem is what it seems to be, and most likely China plays a double game here. They want a second front against the US in the Asian waters battlezone area, and that is N-Korea.

Russia has no direct tactical gains to make in a standoff over N-Korea, but geo-strategical ones. Attention the US needs to pay to the Far East and Korea, cannot be invested in the Arctic, Baltic, Eastern Mediterranean and Black Sea.

[Aktungbby]

Originally Posted by Skybird

I think nothing in the Korean problem is what it seems to be, and most likely China plays a double game here. They want a second front against the US in the Asian waters battlezone area, and that is N-Korea.

precisely. However China is covering all options and worst case scenarios as well:

The Chinese army has reportedly deployed 150,000 troops to the North Korean border to prepare for pre-emptive attacks after the United States dropped airstrikes on Syria.
President Donald Trump's missile strike on Syria on Friday was widely interpreted as a warning to North Korea.
And now China, left shocked by the air strikes, has deployed medical and backup units from the People's Liberation Army forces to the Yalu River, The troops have been dispatched to handle North Korean refugees and 'unforeseen circumstances', such as the prospect of preemptive attacks on North Korea, the news agency said. It opposes Pyongyang's pursuit of nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles and has signed up to tough United Nations sanctions slapped on North Korea. But it has long been wary of pushing too hard, for fear it could trigger a regime collapse, sending millions of North Koreans surging across the border seeking refuge, while potentially removing a geographic buffer between China and South Korea, a U.S. ally.

[vienna]

<O>

[Aktungbby]

당신은 해고되었어요!

[Rockstar]

Here's a story by Robert H. Schmucker and Markus Schiller which to me seems to indicate Fatboy and his regime is not capable of developing missiles on their own. But rather they are easily procuring them, the parts and technology namely from Russia.


The DPRK Missile Show

A comedy in (Currently) Eight Acts

http://www.nkeconwatch.com/nk-upload...10-05-05-1.pdf

[Aktungbby]

Here's a more currant observation as of 7/8/2017 along the same path of thought: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/the-secret-to-kims-success-some-experts-see-russian-echoes-in-north-koreas-missiles-advances/2017/07/08/5d4f5fca-6364-11e7-a4f7-af34fc1d9d39_story.html?utm_term=.aa9ab374ede0

After intensive study, Elleman, a former consultant at the Pentagon, and other specialists would report that they had detected multiple design features in the new North Korean missile engine that echo those of a 1960s-era Soviet workhorse called the RD-250... others see continuing evidence of an outsize role by foreigners, including Russian scientists who provided designs and know-how years ago, and the Chinese vendors who supply the electronics needed for modern missile-guidance systems...the advances of the past years suggest that North Korea’s engineers are now managing quite well on their own.
“The consensus has been that North Korea’s program — missile as well as nuclear — is mostly indigenous,” said Laura Holgate, a top adviser on nonproliferation to the Obama administration who stepped down in January as head of the U.S. mission to the United Nations in Vienna. “They continue to seek to import commercial dual-use technologies for their weapons programs, but the design and innovation is homegrown.”

1) We are in big trouble; 2) "never count on your enemy doing what your plan calls for him to do"; 3) all politics is innately based on greed and have-not nations such as Post Weimar Germany, China, N. Korea, and to some extent, today's Russia (post-Soviet collapse) are simply behaving normally in the build-up to WWIII.

[mapuc]

Copied this from Aktungbby comments

The Chinese army has reportedly deployed 150,000 troops to the North Korean border to prepare for pre-emptive attacks

That is what we have been told or we think that is the case

Have anyone of us, ever been thinking that they are positioned there. to prepare an friendly invasion to help NK in case of an end of the cease fire between USA and NK

Markus

[Jimbuna]

The Chinese are keeping their options open and their cards close to their chest.

What happens next if anything, is anyones guess.