UK Politics Thread

[STEED]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

Corbyn must be rubbing his hands with glee.

Now that report has come out in full and the response from the deputy leader of the DUP calling it devastating it looks clear PM May days are on thin ice. Without the DUP vote next Tuesday I just can not see how May is going to get brexit passed.

I don't see us going to WTO rules by walking out outright, I would say we are going to stay in the EU. This could save May's bacon for now, saying that I would say a internal vote against her will bring her down around a year before the general election.

Tuesday vote will be a interesting 48 hours for May.

[Skybird]

I put my money on early elections. But I do not have an idea what their outcome will mean for Brexit or non-Brexit.


Dreamdancing in the past 18 months, and continuing to do so when thinking she could get away with that legal report. You cannot accuse her of not being consistent.

[STEED]

Originally Posted by Skybird

I put my money on early elections.

PM May's ace card old Jezzer could be enough to prevent one. The fear of Jezzer and his front bench in No.10 could keep May in power for now.

[Skybird]

But what else could happen after Brexit deal rejection in the House, if not new elections? It would equal a no-confidence vote, the government would be at an end (although maybe in a Merkelian interpretation of "end").

[STEED]

Originally Posted by Skybird

But what else could happen after Brexit deal rejection in the House, if not new elections? It would equal a no-confidence vote, the government would be at an end (although maybe in a Merkelian interpretation of "end").

Well all sorts things have been popping up in the news like....

we tear up Article 50 and stay in the EU.

The EU gives us a even longer time...What that is not sure.

Both those two above came from the EU.

There is or so..

Norway and Canadian ideas back on the table.

As for the vote of no confidence which Labour and the SNP could push hard if the Brexit vote is lost for the government. The Tory MP's would back May to the hilt as she is the lesser bitter pill to swallow. The last thing they want is for that vote to win leaving a door open for Labour. As for the DUP I bet they will get paid off for their vote.

PM May will still have 21 days to come up with something new if she looses, what that will be who knows.


Just spotted this..

The Democratic Unionists will back Theresa May's government in any vote of no confidence should her Brexit deal be rejected, its Westminster leader says.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46461880

[Jimbuna]

The chickens are coming home to roost

[STEED]

Brexit vote: What could happen next?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46393399

[Jimbuna]

Theresa May says she "is talking to colleagues" about their concerns over the Northern Ireland "backstop" ahead of a crucial vote on her EU deal.

She suggested MPs could be "given a role" in deciding whether to activate the backstop, which is designed to stop the return of a physical border.

But she told the BBC there could be no deal with the EU without it.

No 10 has said the Commons vote will go ahead on Tuesday, despite claims it could be delayed to avoid defeat.

And in another development, the European Court of Justice said it would deliver a ruling on Monday on whether the UK could unilaterally cancel Brexit by reversing Article 50 - the day before the MPs' crunch vote.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46463326

Too many conundru,s to overcome me thinks.

[STEED]

The leaders Brexit debate is off, first BBC now ITV.

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by STEED

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46393399

Well, I had all those theoretical options on the list, but realistically, and if going by a.) the rules outlined from the beginning on, and b.) realism, there is just the fact that the government is at an end. Anything else is unrealsstic, or a bending of the rules. Which of course is the daily bread in politics, thats why you do not trust it.

If one honours that referendum, takes the EU by its word, sticks to the previously outlined rules, then there cannot be a second referendum, the EU will not negotiate and make greater concessions, and there cannot be a second vote (you do not senmd them vpt9ng until they are tired and give you what you want, that is not the idea behind such votes, but is the explicit abuse of the idea).

Leaves you with leaving with no deal, which is realistic, or the government getting the boot. In case of leaving with no deal the goivenrment still must be held responsiboe for not having negotiated more successfully, which maybe was impossible indeed sinc ethe EU was out to crack the UK anyway, or for the fact that the dela implied the total surrender of the UK and trying to sell this is a victory to the Breitish people, which is a lie and simply: betrayal. Which leads me to concluding in this scenario the government as well is at its end, and must be fired.

Fire it anyway, becasue their attempted coup of hiding the legal report borders, as I said, conspiracy and treason. For this alone the government must be fired already.


Want some wise words from a German? Andreas Brehme, football world champion 1990: "Haste Scheiße am Fuß, haste Scheiße am Fuß."

[Jimbuna]

Well, absolutely no surprises here. I can now foresee the possibility that Brexit will be cancelled and the downfall of the PM

A government bid to find a compromise to win over rebels before the Commons Brexit vote has run into criticism.

A Tory backbench amendment - understood to have No 10's backing - offers MPs more of a say over the contentious issue of the Northern Ireland backstop.

DUP leader Arlene Foster dismissed it as "legislative tinkering" while Tory Brexiteers said it was "desperate".

Many MPs have expressed concerns about the backstop, aimed at preventing a "hard border" on the island of Ireland.

It would mean Northern Ireland staying aligned to some EU rules, which many MPs say is unacceptable.

The UK would also not be able to leave the backstop without EU agreement.

Cabinet ministers are travelling around the UK on Friday as Theresa May continues to seek support for her Brexit deal.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46477036

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

Well, absolutely no surprises here. I can now foresee the possibility that Brexit will be cancelled and the downfall of the PM

And I think this has been May's plan since 18 months. To make it such a bad deal that nobody would complain if the referendum gets ignored. Its also what the EU always has been planned for: to make it such a bad deal that the Brits would finally agree to not respect their own referendum. Mind you, all concessiosn were made by the UK. Not a single one, not a single single single one by the EU - NONE. Thats what negotiating from a position of weakness is like. TBH, I think the whole negotiating joke should have been skipped unilaterally by the UK. And I think back in 2017 I already said so.


Conspiracy prevails. Its politics, mind you. Its easier to kiss a rattlesnake without getting bitten. I know why I despise these crooks so fullheartedly. They pull you down to their low level, and then beat you with experience (Mark Twain).

[Jimbuna]

Originally Posted by Skybird

And I think this has been May's plan since 18 months. To make it such a bad deal that nobody would complain if the referendum gets ignored. Its also what the EU always has been planned for: to make it such a bad deal that the Brits would finally agree to not respect their own referendum.


Conspiracy prevails. Its politics, mind you. Its easier to kiss a rattlesnake without getting bitten.

You could very well be correct Sky

I wonder if May is in any way related to Chamberlain

[STEED]

I hear the government's chief whip has said the government is facing a impossible task and will most likely loose the vote next Tuesday.

[Jimbuna]

Time to commence the scare mongering tactics?

Dover and other Channel ports face disruption for up to six months if the UK leaves the EU without a deal, ministers have said.

The warning comes after analysis of likely traffic flows, if customs checks are delayed.

It is regarded as a worst-case scenario but the public sector is being asked to rewrite its contingency plans.

Lorries carrying medicine could get priority at ports and planes used to fly in drugs, ministers said.

The PM's claim that the alternative to the withdrawal agreement she has negotiated with the EU is a no-deal Brexit, has so far failed to convince many of her own MPs.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46480374