A new slant on RIMPAC Naval politics/The Fight To Control The South China Sea

[Onkel Neal]

The video that accompanies the article tells it all


How long until somene gets killed over this BS?

[Onkel Neal]

http://foxtrotalpha.jalopnik.com/loo...out-1691571576

The reality is that under the UN's Law and Sea Convention, an island, even a small one, gets 12 nautical miles out to sea of territory to call its own and another 200 miles in any direction of mineral and fishing rights. You can imagine that if China has a string of these reefs-turned-sea-base-islands, they can claim a continuous swath of control ranging over hundreds of miles. With proven oil reserves measured in the billions of barrels and trillions of cubic feat of natural gas, China's man-made island chain also could end up greatly offsetting its ferocious appetite for energy, the vast amount of which the Chinese are relegated to importing.

[Jimbuna]

Originally Posted by Neal Stevens

The video that accompanies the article tells it all


How long until somene gets killed over this BS?

My thoughts exactly....the closer to their homeland meaning their boldness will become greater.

This area will fast become a no-fly zone at this rate and it was quite concerning to learn that civilian flightpaths are practically right above them.

[Onkel Neal]

The Fight To Control The South China Sea


Plus, threads merged, thanks Aktung.

[Aktungbby]

An aerial photo taken though a glass window of a Philippine military plane shows the alleged on-going land reclamation by China on mischief reef in the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea, west of Palawan, Philippines, May 11, 2015.
"The U.S., which said that the man-made islands cannot be recognized as sovereign Chinese territory, may be expecting that any possible deployments of military units in the region would impact the Chinese aggression. However, the move could also backfire if China decides to double down its efforts in defiance of the U.S., the Journal reported.
“The risk of this is that China may use such deployments as a reason to try to challenge or confront U.S. forces,” Rory Medcalf, head of the National Security College at the Australian National University, told Reuters.
Meanwhile, Chinese embassy spokesman Zhu Haiquan told Reuters that China had “indisputable sovereignty” over the Spratly Islands, and that the country’s construction in the area was “reasonable, justified and lawful.”
China has expanded the artificial islands in the Spratly Islands to 2,000 acres of land, which is significantly up from 500 acres last year, according to a February estimate by experts who studied the images released by IHS Jane’s, a defense intelligence provider." http://www.ibtimes.com/us-military-mulls-sending-planes-navy-ships-counter-chinese-expansion-south-china-sea-1919959 It is well past time to forge a pact with Viet-Nam, Japan, Brunei and Malaysia and put an extremely forceful halt to this expansion.

[Aktungbby]

ahem: http://www.subsim.com/radioroom/showthread.php?t=214616 POST #17 [QUOTE: me]One things for certain: it's a' comin' They're not 'rattlin' the sabre'yet! but they're sure forging it![/QUOTE] http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-32331964 Nothing like a 10, 000 ft runway built on a reef in the middle of the 'Cow's Lick' of Chinese expansion. It's capable of accommodating military aircraft...and like Midway in WWII, is in reality a 'carrier you cannot sink' this one will bear monitoring. The slow trudge of Sino-dominance in the Western Pacific is well underway.

[Onkel Neal]

China says changing position on sea dispute would shame ancestors

Changing position on China's claims over the South China Sea would shame its ancestors, while not facing up to infringements of Chinese sovereignty there would shame its children, Foreign Minister Wang Yi said on Saturday.

China has become increasingly assertive in the South China Sea, building artificial islands in areas over which the Philippines and other countries have rival claims, sparking alarm regionally and in Washington.

"One thousand years ago China was a large sea-faring nation. So of course China was the first country to discover, use and administer the Nansha Islands," Wang said, using the Chinese term for the Spratly Islands, which together with the Paracel Islands form the bulk of China's claims.

[Aktungbby]

That's right up there with Mussolini trying to 'rebuild the Roman empire'...in Ethiopia. And Keeping the Confederate battle flag flying in the US perhaps(heritage???) Hey, when you're guilty, you're guilty IMHO “The Fascist movement, under the authoritative dictator Benito Mussolini, saw in many ways an ideological return to the ways of Ancient Rome and all for which it stood. Facism revived consciousness of the ancient glories of Italy, of the Roman Empire...continuation of this tradition by...the Fascisti struggle for a new Imperial Rome.”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Italo-Ethiopian_War That exposed the weakness of the League of Nations at the time. War crimes, mustard gas , castration of prisoners, this war had it had it all. Fair enough, the Sinos can have anything that doesn't have oil. Their ancestors were not interested in oil. We really need to slap 'em up along side their ears though and free Tibet first. This latest aggression is movement against perceived economic weakness in the West coupled with a serious case of 'victory fever' over the absorption of Tibet which has gone unchallenged. First strike will be against the Three Gorges Dam...Dambuster style; and we'll reclaim Hong Kong...(allright re-lease for another 99 years) and keep Formosa. The question really becomes one of: do we deal with Putin first; a man with a mission, hopelessly trying to recapture the glories of the Soviet Empire in Ukraine. Which at some point will re-include Russia's loss-of-face in Afghanistan (and a lot of dead ancestors)...again. Bottom line: are we still fighting WWI post-colonial crap or is it WWIII.

[ikalugin]

War, war never changes.

However your post implies that you could ocupy areas of PRC. What kind of military force would such an action require? At what kind of cost? What I am saying is that unless PRC implodes it would still grow up as a viable challenger in Asia-Pacific area, simply because it's economic power would allow it to.

And this is b/c USA has to project power globaly and not in that specific region, EU states though wealthy are divided and individually are loosing meaningfull ability to project power into Asia-Pacific.

[Aktungbby]

This latest aggression is movement against perceived economic weakness in the West

Precisely! That's why China and Russia are rattling sabres now. Formosa and Hong Kong are not tough areas to encompass (Naval) and certainly do not have entirely pro-Beijing leanings to begin with. As with ol' Adolf marching into the Rhineland, we're being tested. Let's hope we don't make the same non-proactive response of postwar 1939 Britain and France and not let more Tibets go unanswered. Sooner is better than later as history, miserably, has proven. Formosa would force the Sino response as the Doolittle Tokyo raid did the Japanese in WWII...imho. The political and legal statuses of Taiwan are contentious issues. The People's Republic of China (PRC) claims that the Republic of China government is illegitimate, referring to it as the "Taiwan Authority". The ROC, however, with its own constitution, independently elected president and armed forces, continues to view itself as a sovereign state. The present territory of the state has never been controlled by the PRC. Internationally, there is controversy on whether the ROC still exists as a state or a defunct state per international law due to the loss of membership/recognition in the United Nations and lack of wide diplomatic recognition. In a poll of Taiwanese aged 20 and older taken by the TVBS in March 2009, a majority of 64% opted for the status quo, while 19% favored independence and 5% unification. In an impending confrontation Formosa is the #1 big chink in Sino armor, politics and 'face saving-wise'. And for all their present land grabbing shows their temerity in really pushing hard for now... Bully's are all alike-never satisfied...and 1/7 of the world's population is hungry and bullish!

[ikalugin]

I think that it is a matter of perspective. Ie recent expansion of NATO and coup in Kiev are bad, bad things from our stand point - threats that require reaction. Thus Russian actions are not driven by perceived weakness and lack of deterence, but by perceived threat, thus increasing deterence measures leads to escalation and not balance.

Going to war against Russia or the PRC would be most unwise, as both countries have significant nuclear arsenals (ie US does not enjoy nuclear monopoly of the WW2). This is the only real existential threat US has ever really faced.
Morever a war against either of the countries, even should it stay conventional, would imply significant coasts.

The war in both cases (more so in case of the PRC) would be impossible without decisive US comitment.

[Onkel Neal]

Two interesting, contrasting articles

China hits back at U.S. criticism over South China Sea 'restrictions'

China committed to uphold peace, stability in S. China Sea

[Aktungbby]

I'm beginning to wonder if all of this isn't to develop a 'bargaining-chip' for the formal reacquisition of Taiwan/Formosa which is the big objective over all. Present Formosa is a 'big cork' in their bottle. The other big problem is that all conflict takes place in time; China is in no hurry which is at odds with Western culture. We, in the West, like to settle things more quickly than 50 years+ down the line. The Sino power establishment understands it has no equivalent navy capable of head to head conflict at sea, yet, and is biding its time to develop its military infrastructure to maintain what it is continuing since the illegal acquisition of Tibet...over 50 years ago

[Aktungbby]

http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/05/15/china-russia-navy-joint-sea-2015-asia-pivot-blowback/ On May 11, nine ships from the Russian Navy and China’s People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) kicked off 10 days of combined exercises in the Mediterranean Sea, for their first joint naval war games in European waters. What does this nautical confab, dubbed “Joint Sea 2015,” entail? “Maritime defense, maritime replenishment, escort actions, joint operations to safeguard navigation security as well as real weapon firing drill,” according to Sr. Col. Geng Yansheng, a spokesman for China’s Defense Ministry. The aim of the exercises is to “further deepen friendly and practical interaction between the two countries,” maintained the Russian Defense Ministry. Moscow added that the drills “are not aimed against any third country.”

[Onkel Neal]

Here we go....

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-34529863

China has been worrying its neighbours - and the US - by enlarging the series of tiny islands, reports the BBC's China analyst Michael Bristow.

Washington believes Beijing is constructing military facilities, designed to reinforce its disputed claim to most of the region - a major shipping zone.

The row began when US officials said they were considering sending warships inside the 12-nautical-mile zones that China claims as territory around the Spratlys.

That sparked strong words from China, with Ms Hua warning: "We will never allow any country to violate China's territorial waters and airspace in the Spratly Islands, in the name of protecting freedom of navigation and overflight."

On Tuesday, US Defence Secretary Ash Carter expressed "strong concerns" over island-building, and defended Washington's plans.
"Make no mistake, the United States will fly, sail and operate wherever international law allows, as we do around the world, and the South China Sea will not be an exception," he said at a news conference with the Australian foreign and defence ministers.

"We will do that in the time and places of our choosing," he added, according to Reuters news agency.