Hamas launches war on Israel

[Dargo]

Iran is sending in cheap drones to bait the Iron Dome into wasting interceptor rockets on those. Iran will be following up with a heavy rocket attack, whilst the Iron Dome needs reloading (which takes ages). Those missiles are now being launched (I thought it was a closed case) Multiple reports that a US Military Base has been attacked with missiles in Erbil, Iraq. Confirmed impacts on Nevatim airbase, southern Israel.

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Dargo

Iran is sending in cheap drones to bait the Iron Dome into wasting interceptor rockets on those. Iran will be following up with a heavy rocket attack, whilst the Iron Dome needs reloading (which takes ages). Those missiles are now being launched (I thought it was a closed case) Multiple reports that a US Military Base has been attacked with missiles in Erbil, Iraq. Confirmed impacts on Nevatim airbase, southern Israel.

The forecast is not looking good at all

Markus

[em2nought]

Originally Posted by Dargo

Nope this how he always operates reacting his politics in threads that have nothing to do with his political view it neither gives any informational insides on the subject discussed.

None of this crap would even be happening if Joe Biden wasn't installed as President, so my view seems to be topical and pertinent. All the useless waste of life that has happened since then can be traced back to that moment.

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by mapuc

Maybe not every Islamic country in the middle east. They even get support from Russia now

It's not a question around what Russia can provide with, but that they are supporting Iran.

Markus

Ok if Russia is so helpful why can Israel bomb Damascus without any Russia anti-air system Putin is too weak that it cannot support a ally that is why I say it can not do anything or win in Ukraine it does not have the means.

Originally Posted by mapuc

Are you saying that WWIII has begun ?

Markus

World wars are not so easily started where is the other global country if you think Russia forget them they can hardly advance kilometres in Ukraine they have their hand full with a david they can not do world wars Russia is a farce always was. And China does not want a war with his biggest markets.

[Skybird]

Iran has launched a second wave. The first seems to be finished now more or less, having been 200+ drones and missiles strong.

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by Skybird

Iran has launched a second wave. The first seems to be finished now more or less, having been 200+ drones and missiles strong.

Do you think Iran planners had planned for so many Western interceptors in the air the plan was to weaken the iron dome, but that plan failed hits will be reported, but it will not be so many they had planned. A US official confirmed to ABC that US forces downed multiple Iranian drones headed towards Israel tonight. There goes the plan, lol. Iran has launched a second salvo of 70 missiles toward Israel, First salvo was 80 missiles per a senior US official. Israel was hit by 7 Iranian Ballistic Missiles. Mainly in the Negev Desert Area an Israeli Base was likely hit by several missiles. Iranian missiles in the skies of Jerusalem are being intercepted, with most of them being successfully countered!

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by em2nought

None of this crap would even be happening if Joe Biden wasn't installed as President, so my view seems to be topical and pertinent. All the useless waste of life that has happened since then can be traced back to that moment.

So Trumpy is an Iran lover, your geopolitics is a bucket full of bull.... Yeah, another war! I mean, oh now thatʼs terrible… how long would it take for the senate to make a decision on 2 wars going on at the same time? Also, are we going to jerk off Iran while figuring out the goals for the military in the Middle East? Let’s not attack their oil refineries as well. Perhaps Israel should only attack Iranian forces on their territory? No? This doesn’t sound like a feasible strategy? Who knew ?! It is all Biden fault! This all would not happen under Trump’s leadership! ” All rise. Loud and prolonged applause, rising to an ovation and faint in awe of our Great Helmsman, exceptional, glorious president. " Oh huh... "No Americans were harmed in last night's attack by the Iranian regime," Trump said shortly after the strike. He added, "We suffered no casualties." But the Pentagon later said that 11 people had suffered TBI. And on Jan. 24, the number jumped to 34. Nearly a week later, the Pentagon said 50 personnel were injured, only to revise the figure days later to 64. https://www.npr.org/2020/02/11/80478...-pentagon-says Oops?

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Dargo

Surprised me that Iran would directly attack it got balls, but they will regret it biggly they have now given Israel and allies all means to strike back hard. Russia will not help them neither China they only got some minor proxies that cannot do much damage.

Iranian regime had to respect pressure from the streets. A full war however may be more dangerous for Iran'S regime than for its enemies, they have reason to be worried about the hostility of significant parts of civil society against the relgious orthodox caste. This is a far bigger risk factor in Iran than oppositional civilian unrest in Russia.

I know iran a bit, I was there, in the nineties, some longer time, not just for vacation. Back then, I saw a society that was surprisingly diverse, from ultra orthodox and hate-dripping anti-West mentality to a moderate and quite burgeoise middle class with high esteem for education and social standing. The youth revolts of that tie m never were about gettign Wetsenr style society and dmeicracy, only about access to free media ause and perkmsision for free travel, some social issues as well like unemployment. However, they all were hot-burning patriots. Go against Iran, and they will in no time rally around their flag despite all their anger for the religious leaders and their differences. It was even more extreme so than in Turkey, and that means something if you came to know rural Turkey away from the West-oriented tourism hotspots and metropoles. From all Muslim coutnries IO was in, I wopuld favour the Iran of the 90s as it wa sback then, before the others. Worst was Turkey, rural Turkey that is, where I was often met with open hostility and ultra-nationalistic sentiment- that happened never in Iran. My antipathy against Turkey not only but also roots in these experiences I made in the country. Even without Erdoghan I would not like it.

However, that were the mid and late nineties. Things may have changed, its one generation later. I hjave completely lost interest in travelling and working oversea, but I would not go back to the ME and Turkey and Iran at all, under no circumstances. And a terrible climate, too hot for me. I always had health issues and practical problems due to the heat.

[Dargo]

Iran is attacking #Israel directly. Normally content with employing proxies to do its dirty work for it, Iran is currenlty launching what appears to be a multi-wave aerial attack with drones and missiles. What might this mean? The U.S. has stated that it will defend Israel, and has the military assets in the region to contribute to this mission. We also might see a rapid airlift of air defence missiles and other materiel from the U.S. to Israel. Besides direct attacks from Iran, the Iranians may also call on its proxies to launch concurrent attacks to overwhelm Israeli sensors, C2 and decision making. Iranian options include massed missile attacks from Hezbollah out of Lebanon (where they have 100-200K missiles), as well as attacks from Syria. Israel has been targeting Hezbollah missiles for a while but won't be able to destroy them all. There are some key questions at this point. First, is this a short 'performance attack' to retaliate for the attack on the Quads force officers, boost Iran's regional reputation and exploit what Iran believe's is Israeli weakness? Or is it someting larger?

Second, what is Iran's ultimate goal here and its strategy to achieve it? This is a shift in the way they have indirectly attacked Israel for years. It should also be noted that these Iranian attacks might generate sympathy for Israel after months of criticism for its Gaza ops. Third, how significant will Israeli retaliation be? Israel has previously rehearsed long-range attacks against Iran before. Could Israel use this as a casus belli to attack Iran's nuclear weapon programs directly? There is much uncertainty about how this will all play out over the coming hours and days. Will this lead to an even larger scale war in the Middle East or is de-escalation possible? This situation will probably dominate the attention of the U.S. administration. It will please Russia and China greatly. And for the Ukrainians desperately seeking more U.S. assistance, the likely step-up in U.S. assistance to Israel will impact the chances of more aid to #Ukraine. https://twitter.com/WarintheFuture/s...86657004667286

IDF Spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari says Iran launched dozens of ballistic missiles at Israel, causing slight damage to a military base. He says most of the missiles were intercepted by the long-range Arrow air defense system. The missiles were mostly downed outside of Israeli airspace, he says. One impact led to the injury of a young girl in the Negev, and additional impacts caused "slight damage to infrastructure" at a military base, Hagari says. He says fighter jets also downed dozens of cruise missiles and dozens of drones. In total, Iran launched more than 200 projectiles at Israel, according to Hagari. He says the incident is not over.

A senior Israel official just told Israeli TV (Channel 12) that an "unprecedented retaliation" against Iran has been authorized in response to tonight's aerial assault. The vast majority of the Iranian missiles that were fired at Israel tonight were intercepted outside Israel borders.

[Skybird]

I say it for the third time: the religous leaders had to pay attention to the angry public mood, which wanted revenge. This time they could not just send in any proxies. The regime has reason to be concerned about the anger on the street, it could turn against the regime. They probably did not want to do this attack themselves, would have preferred to retaliate with proxy attacks. But they could not afford it, the inner political risk was too huge this time. I mean they just destroy the plan they have pursued for months and months now, to divide US and Israel and alienate the one from the other. And now? As you said, the US jump-starts again and comes to Israel's rescue.

I think a huge war is not wanted. But things may involuntarily slide into that direction.

And then there is Russia. It certainly has an interest to have Western attention diverted from Ukraine.

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by Skybird

I say it for the third time: the religous leaders had to pay attention to the angry public mood, which wanted revenge. This time they could not just send in any proxies. The regime has reason to be concerned about the anger on the street, it could turn against the regime. They probably did not want to do this attack themselves, would have preferred to retaliate with proxy attacks. But they could not afford it, the inner political risk was too huge this time. I mean they just destroy the plan they have pursued for months and months now, to divide US and Israel and alienate the one from the other. And now? As you said, the US jump-starts again and comes to Israel's rescue.

I think a huge war is not wanted. But things may involuntarily slide into that direction.

And then there is Russia. It certainly has an interest to have Western attention diverted from Ukraine.

The order to strike back is already approved by Israel war cabinet and for Russia thinking it will divert Western attention will backfire. Of the more than 200 drones and missiles Iran has fired at Israel, the "vast majority" have been intercepted by air defence systems and with help from "partners". The West was prepared and can easily fight two fronts. Nato has the forces in this region and in Europe to counter this kinda attacks this is the purpose of Nato, and it has it proven they can do their job even none NATO members have helped Israel.

Israel has already informed the Americans and governments in the region that its response is inevitable. Its military options include launching drones at Iran, and long-range airstrikes on Iran, possibly on military bases or nuclear installations. Iran says the situation in the Middle East need not escalate further if Israel does not retaliate to this night's attack. But that won't happen, there will be a counter-attack to which Iran will respond again. According to Iran's UN ambassador, with the retaliation as far as his country is concerned, "the matter is finished with this." However, he did promise more violence if Israel responds militarily. "If the Israeli regime makes another mistake, the Iranian response will be decidedly harsher," he said. The Iranian defence minister added that Tehran is also warning other countries not to help Israel. Any country that opens its airspace or territory to an attack on Iran by Israel can count on "a firm response" from Tehran, he told the Mehr News Agency news channel.

This attack also means Netanyahu position is safe:
Iran has set Netanyahu up for what he has been wanting for decades. Will he take the opening and go big against Iran’s nuclear program (capacity dependent) or go for a limited operation aimed at hurting Iran in other ways, especially economically. If the latter, oil infrastructure could be a top target. Hitting stand-off weapons production and installations (much tougher than oil) is another possibility. No way to know but this is new territory. The next 48 hours will be absolutely pivotal. The ball is now in Israel’s court. https://twitter.com/Aviation_Intel/s...23709565853799

[Dargo]

Statement from President Joe Biden on Iran's Attacks against the State of Israel
Earlier today, Iran—and its proxies operating out of Yemen, Syria and Iraq—launched an unprecedented air attack against military facilities in Israel. I condemn these attacks in the strongest possible terms. At my direction, to support the defence of Israel, the U.S. military moved aircraft and ballistic missile defence destroyers to the region over the course of the past week. Thanks to these deployments and the extraordinary skill of our service members, we helped Israel take down nearly all the incoming drones and missiles.

I’ve just spoken with Prime Minister Netanyahu to reaffirm America’s ironclad commitment to the security of Israel. I told him that Israel demonstrated a remarkable capacity to defend against and defeat even unprecedented attacks – sending a clear message to its foes that they cannot effectively threaten the security of Israel. Tomorrow, I will convene my fellow G7 leaders to coordinate a united diplomatic response to Iran’s brazen attack. My team will engage with their counterparts across the region. And we will stay in close touch with Israel’s leaders. And while we have not seen attacks on our forces or facilities today, we will remain vigilant to all threats and will not hesitate to take all necessary action to protect our people. https://twitter.com/danriversitv/sta...43551223992359

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Dargo

Do you think Iran planners had planned for so many Western interceptors in the air the plan was to weaken the iron dome, but that plan failed hits will be reported, but it will not be so many they had planned. A US official confirmed to ABC that US forces downed multiple Iranian drones headed towards Israel tonight. There goes the plan, lol. Iran has launched a second salvo of 70 missiles toward Israel, First salvo was 80 missiles per a senior US official. Israel was hit by 7 Iranian Ballistic Missiles. Mainly in the Negev Desert Area an Israeli Base was likely hit by several missiles. Iranian missiles in the skies of Jerusalem are being intercepted, with most of them being successfully countered!

Iron Dome is a system that had not much to do this night since the incoming targets are not the preferred prey of it, but of Arrow 3 and interceptors in midair.
The Iranians telegraphed intensely in advance that they would do something, giving Israel and its allies the time to prepare. This delay between warnign and action was done by Iran intentionally. They do not really want a further escalation, they had to bow to the pressure form the street, however. They had to do something - without ending up in a total war.

That Israel's air defence are amongst the most formidable in the world, is known. Question is how huge their ammo reserves are. Iranian drones forgoing missiles are meant to deplete the readiness of the firing units and the stockpiled reserves. Ideally the striking missiles arrive when the defending SAMs are empty and undergo reloading. Temporary over-saturation.

A lot now depends on what Israel's coalition government does next. From an Iranian point of view, the issue is - for the moment - settled. The ball is in Israel's field. The Americans want no further escalation, but signalled support for Israel's defensive actions. I dare no prediction what Israel does next. Everything seems possible.

[Jimbuna]

Israel says it and its allies have intercepted the vast majority of more than 300 drones and missiles launched by Iran.

It says there were a small number of hits on its territory, including at an IDF base in southern Israel, while one child has been injured.

Israel's minister of defence, Yoav Gallant, has said the confrontation with Iran is “not over yet"

Iran said the attack "achieved all its objectives" and added it would use greater force if Israel responded in kind.

Iran's unprecedented, retaliatory attack marks the first time it has targeted Israel directly from its own soil.

Tehran's attack is a retaliation for an Israeli strike that killed Iranian military commanders in Damascus earlier this month.

Rishi Sunak confirmed that UK jets shot down a number of Iranian drones and has urged for "calm heads to prevail"

Biden says he told Netanyahu that Israel has demonstrated "remarkable capacity" in defending itself, adding that the US helped "take down nearly all of the incoming drones and missiles"

[Jimbuna]

There's nothing quite like a huge overdose of hypocrisy.

Russia calls for all sides to 'show restraint'

Russia is calling for all parties to "show restraint" and "expressed concern" over further escalation after Iran launched missiles and drones at Israel overnight.

"We are counting on the regional states to solve the existing problems with political and diplomatic means," the foreign ministry has said in a statement.

Moscow added that it has warned numerous times that the UN Security Council was unable to "adequately" respond to a strike on an Iranian consulate in Syria, which killed seven officers from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, including top commanders.

It comes after the United States, Britain and France opposed a Russian-drafted UN Security Council statement that would have condemned an attack on Iran's embassy compound in Syria.

Iran accused Israel of carrying out that attack, but Israel has said it doesn't comment on foreign reports.