UK Politics Thread part II

[MGR1]

STURGEON RESIGNS AS FIRST MINISTER OF SCOTLAND:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-64647907

Sighs of relief from the Pro-Union side, sighs of disbelief on the Pro-Independence side.

For my part, I disagree with her aims although I will give her her due, BUT she's taken up a lot of bandwidth politically so it's really not clear who will succeed her. Most of the top candidates aren't exactly dynamite or that well known.

If anyone's thinking about what Alex Salmond might do, he is NO LONGER part of the SNP, he leads the Alba Party and isn't currently elected to Holyrood. He's also a very divisive figure.

Mike.

[Jimbuna]

I certainly won't miss her.

[Jimbuna]

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

I certainly won't miss her.

Neither do I, but I have to give her credit for one thing: In the end, she succeeds in something that many of her colleagues and also in London fail at: she manages her own exit with a minimum of decency. At least in direct comparison.


Just some years too late.

[Jimbuna]

Originally Posted by Skybird

Neither do I, but I have to give her credit for one thing: In the end, she succeeds in something that many of her colleagues and also in London fail at: she manages her own exit with a minimum of decency. At least in direct comparison.


Just some years too late.

Never forget the fact she failed miserably in her greatest ambition....independence.

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

Never forget the fact she failed miserably in her greatest ambition....independence.

Yeah, but she walked out walking herself, they did not bring her out of her room with feet first - different to three or four London prime ministers in a row.

[MGR1]

Certainly in comparison with the post-2016 Tory circus at Westminster the SNP have been positively boring (although not very effective), even if badly distracted by their main issue of independence, when it comes to actually running things on a day-to-day basis. The Gender Recognition Bill was a major mis-step so it's going to be very interesting to see what comes next.

One of the possible contenders is Joanna Cherry, if you didn't like Sturgeon you won't like this one at all. Very much in the Salmond mold politically whilst being socially conservative.

The major problem for the Unionist/Pro-UK side still remains the same: a lack of organisation, vision and, crucially, having a vote split between three different parties which don't like each other.

In addition, the Pro-UK side isn't just faced with "selling" the Union only to Scotland, it now has to do the same in all four home nations. So far none have managed to come up with a positive or inspiring message as to why the UK should still exist beyond simple inertia and money.

Mike.

[MGR1]

Cherry has ruled herself out (Yay!)
Here's the BBC news article on possible contenders to succeed Sturgeon:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotla...itics-64648987

I've only heard about Forbes, Robertson and Yousaf, McAllan and Grey I didn't know existed whilst I recognise Brown's face, but that's it.

Humza Yousaf 'seriously considering' SNP leadership bid

Meanwhile Anas Sarwar and SLab think they may have an opportunity:

Anas Sarwar urges SNP voters to back Labour as Nicola Sturgeon quits

Can Scottish Labour mount a post-Sturgeon revival?

What that second question actually means is "Can they get the Clyde Valley constituencies back?" Of that, I am not so sure.

Mike.

[Jimbuna]

Can Scottish Labour mount a post-Sturgeon revival?

Nicola Sturgeon is the name on everyone's lips in Scottish politics this week, after her surprising and abrupt decision to call it a day as first minister.

It was no different at the Scottish Labour conference in Edinburgh, with members striking a less than sombre tone.

"We're coping OK," Jackie Baillie joked in her opening address.

That might be understandable when you consider the destruction wrought on Labour by the outgoing first minister.

The SNP had already supplanted them as the party of government at Holyrood, before Ms Sturgeon took the reins from Alex Salmond.

But her immediate project in the aftermath of the 2014 independence referendum was to shift the SNP to the left, and to consume Labour's traditional base.

The following year she seized 40 of the party's 41 seats at Westminster. In 2015 Scotland went straight from being a Labour stronghold to them clinging to a single seat, a position which persists today.

During Ms Sturgeon's remarkable run of electoral successes, the SNP's heartlands have mapped almost perfectly on to those which were once Labour red - across the central belt and particularly in Glasgow and Fife.

So you could forgive Labour for holding some hope that the departure of their nemesis could spark a revival in those areas and beyond, as part of the wider project to retake Downing Street.

James Kelly, who lost his Holyrood seat in 2021, issued a direct message to the SNP from the conference stage: "We're coming for ye."

But his party will need to target a turnaround almost as abrupt as the 2015 landslide which heralded the SNP's complete capture of Scottish politics.

At present, there are only four seats where Labour can target an SNP majority of under 10%.

Two of them have since seen the sitting MP defect to the Alba Party, while another is held by an independent - Margaret Ferrier.

There are a few others where there is a feeling that the SNP vote, while broad, may be soft.

But for all the talk of the road to Downing Street running through Scottish constituencies, it will take huge swings for Labour to make many gains. Gains anywhere near approaching double figures would look like a huge win.

Ms Sturgeon's departure could be a bonus for the party in its campaigning in the rest of the UK too, though.

Sir Keir Starmer - expected to address the conference on Sunday, fresh from a trip to Ukraine - will now face less competition as the face of left-leaning politics on the UK stage.

It will enable his party to campaign as a more straightforward choice for those who want to see the Conservatives turfed out of power.

And it will blunt the attack line which the Tories have been workshopping about the SNP wielding influence over him in a hung parliament.

You could already picture the campaign advert, with Sir Keir peeping out of Nicola Sturgeon's pocket.

But that is unlikely to have the same impact with voters in England and Wales under a new leader, who will not have anything like the profile of Ms Sturgeon.

She was first minister before Mr Starmer or indeed Rishi Sunak were even MPs, and whoever replaces her will take time to build the same level of recognition with the wider electorate.

Looking further down the road, will Anas Sarwar hope for a boost in his bid to be first minister some day?

In the last Holyrood election, Scottish Labour was pitching itself as a "better opposition" - but may want to go one better next time.

Mr Sarwar may have a better shot at winning the Glasgow Southside constituency, once Ms Sturgeon relinquishes her grip on it.

She intends to sit on the back benches at Holyrood in the immediacy, but she is unlikely to settle there for the longer term. Given her profile and talents, it is frankly hard to picture her whiling away her time as deputy convener of the public audit committee into the 2030s.

It is of course her seat in Bute House that Mr Sarwar really craves, and that would again require a massive turnaround in fortunes.

Labour still sits in third place at Holyrood behind the SNP and Conservatives, and has lost seats at every single election since devolution with a shrinking share of the vote.

To spring from that right back into government would be a huge ask, and Mr Sarwar may have to settle for arresting the long-term gradual decline.

But all of that said, the political world could look very, very different come the 2026 election.

Sir Keir may be settling in to Downing Street, and the prospect of an independence referendum could be even more distant - neutering two of the SNP's favourite electoral arguments, about ditching the Tories in favour of constitutional change.

If the binary question of Scotland's future somehow isn't the top priority in the campaign, Labour might hope to regain votes lost in recent years to both the SNP and the Conservatives.

And if independence is still a key issue - as is entirely probable - the brew of ideas bubbling up in the SNP about the best way forward means Labour's own constitutional proposals might get more of a hearing.

Nothing can be taken for granted - and Mr Sarwar has fronted up to that, telling delegates that "we've still got a lot of work to do to regain the trust of the people".

But Scottish politics as a whole is entering a period of massive uncertainty after decades of stability in the leadership of the SNP.

Labour will hope they can emerge from the whirlpool in a stronger position.

As with everything else in politics, it remains to be seen if reality actually delivers on those expectations.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotla...itics-64680291

[MGR1]

Same article as the bottom link in my last post.

Mike.

[Jimbuna]

Never realised

[Jimbuna]

Humza Yousaf and Ash Regan launch bids to become SNP leader

Scottish Health Secretary Humza Yousaf and former minister Ash Regan have announced they will stand to take over from Nicola Sturgeon as SNP leader and Scotland's first minister.

The pair, who revealed their plans to run in the Sunday Mail, are the first to declare their candidacy.

Other candidates tipped to stand are Finance Minister Kate Forbes and Justice Secretary Keith Brown.

The winner of the race is due to be announced on 27 March.

Meanwhile Neil Gray, the minister for culture, Europe and international development, has ruled himself out of the leadership race, and given his backing to Mr Yousaf.

Announcing his leadership bid in the Scottish newspaper, Mr Yousaf says he had been through a "rollercoaster of emotions" since the longstanding first minister and SNP leader Ms Sturgeon announced her shock resignation on Wednesday, after eight years.

He says: "You've got to put yourself forward if you think you're the best person for the job. And I do. This is the top job in the country, and it needs somebody who has experience."

Mr Yousaf, who first became an MSP in 2011, has been a prominent figure on the SNP frontbenches in every Scottish administration since and has been considered a strong leadership candidate for many years.

But the 37-year-old's time as justice minister saw him bogged down in controversy surrounding the Hate Crime and Public Order (Scotland) Bill - which faced backlash over its impact on freedom of expression.

He has also been criticised for his running of the NHS in Scotland, which experienced the hardest winter in its history in recent months.

Ms Sturgeon has faced repeated calls from opposition parties to sack Mr Yousaf, with waiting times at record highs and doctors warning that the country's hospitals are not safe for patients.

On Friday, Mr Yousaf pointed to the record pay offer he made to NHS staff, which he said was likely to avoid strike action for the next financial year.

For her part, Ms Regan tells the Sunday Mail the SNP "need to bring back unity, draw a line under certain things and move past them", adding her belief that she is "the person to do that".

This statement is a reference to her views over the controversial the Gender Recognition Reform (Scotland) Bill, the SNP's proposed reforms to how people can change their legal gender in Scotland - which was subsequently blocked by the Westminster government.

Before it was approved by a majority in Holyrood, the SNP's former community safety minister had quit in protest over it and became an outspoken critic of the legislation.

Writing in the Sunday Mail, Ms Regan says: "The electorate expect the Scottish government to focus on things that are important to them.

"That means the NHS, which is still struggling to get back on its feet after the pandemic. People expect a first minister to concentrate on boosting the economy, creating jobs and helping them deal with the cost-of-living crisis."

In a later post on Twitter she outlined a plan to call for independence convention to be held to "create a new vision of an independent Scotland".

And she backed proposals to use either a Westminster or Holyrood election as a de facto referendum on Scottish independence.

After Ms Sturgeon's announcement, Ms Regan, 48, called for SNP members who left the party in the past year to be given a vote in the leadership race.

But this proposal was described as "preposterous" by Deputy First Minister John Swinney - who has already ruled himself out of the contest.

In a post on Twitter, Neil Gray said it had been "incredibly flattering" to have been suggested as a candidate to succeed Nicola Sturgeon as first minister.

But he added: "I have seriously considered, with family and colleagues, whether I am the right person to do that job.

"I have concluded that with my children the age they are, and given I am relatively new to government, now is not the right time for me."

He said Humza Yousaf had the "skills and experience" for the job and he was giving him his full support.

The SNP's Westminster leader Stephen Flynn and high-profile MP Joanna Cherry have also said they will not run for the leadership.

Other potential candidates said to be weighing up whether to throw their hats in the ring are Finance Secretary Kate Forbes - who is currently on maternity leave - and SNP deputy leader Keith Brown.

Nominations for the leadership contest will close at noon on Friday.

A party conference scheduled for 19 March to discuss the SNP's strategy for winning Scottish independence has been postponed.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-64693915

[Jimbuna]

UK in surprise boost after record tax payments in January

By Michael Race
Business reporter, BBC News

The UK government saw a surprise surplus in its finances in January despite "substantial spending" to help with energy bills and EU payments.

The highest self-assessed income tax receipts since records began in 1999 boosted the UK's coffers.

It meant it spent less than it received in tax, leaving a £5.4bn surplus.

Economists said the figures showed a "mixed picture" with public finances still weaker than this time last year ahead of next month's Budget.

Chancellor Jeremy Hunt will set out his plans for tax and spending on 15 March.

Martin Beck, chief economic advisor to the EY ITEM Club which is a UK economic forecasting group, said the figures gave Mr Hunt "some positives to work on" in his Budget.

Mr Beck said the fall in cost of wholesale energy meant the government's spending on support for bills "will be a fraction" of what was officially forecast last year.

However, because the government's self-imposed fiscal rules around debt relate to five years in the future, he said short-term movements in UK's finances "don't have much bearing" on policies.

Public borrowing in the financial year to date is £30.6bn less than predicted by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), the government's official forecaster.

Michal Stelmach, senior economist at KPMG UK, said this could "tempt the chancellor to offer a pay increase to public sector workers as part of his Budget next month" in a bid to prevent further strikes.

But Mr Hunt said debt was still at the highest level since the 1960s.

"It is vital we stick to our plan to reduce debt over the medium term," he added.

"Getting debt down will require some tough choices, but it is crucial to reduce the amount spent on debt interest so we can protect our public services."

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's spokesman later indicated the surplus did not mean it would announce tax cuts at the Budget.

"We shouldn't place too much emphasis on a single month's data. Borrowing remains at record highs and there is significant uncertainty and volatility, both clear risks to the fiscal position," the spokesman said.

Every January, the government tends to take more in tax than it spends in other months due to the amount it receives in self-assessed taxes, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

But most economists had expected borrowing to rise this time, in part due to the large amount the government is spending on supporting households with their energy bills.

It is limiting the average household energy bill to £2,500 - although it says this will increase to £3,000 from April due to the high cost of the support.

In addition, the ONS said the government had faced "large one-off payments" in January relating to historic customs duties owed to the EU.

In the end, though, these costs were largely offset by record self-assessed income tax payments of £21.9bn in January, which left the government with a surplus.

But despite the surprise figures, January's overall surplus was still £7.1bn smaller compared to the same month in 2022. Interest repayments on government debt also hit their highest level for January since records on that data began in 1997.

The ONS said the rise in debt repayments, which totalled £6.7bn in January, was "largely" because of inflation.

This is because many UK government bonds, or "gilts", which the government sells to international investors to raise the money it needs, are "index linked", meaning the government's repayments rise in line with the Retail Prices Index (RPI) measure of inflation, which is currently at double-digit levels.

Of the interest payable in January 2023, some £3.3bn reflected the impact of inflation, the ONS said.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-64705051

[Jimbuna]

Asylum backlog at record high, Home Office figures show

By Mark Easton
Home editor

The number of asylum seekers waiting for a decision on their case in the UK has soared to record levels, with about 166,000 people in the backlog.

Almost 110,000 have been waiting for six months or more, according to Home Office data published on Thursday.

The new figures show about 89,000 people claimed asylum in the UK in 2022, the highest for 19 years.

On Wednesday the Home Office announced plans to streamline the system by scrapping interviews in some cases.

The move aims to reduce the asylum backlog which Prime Minister Rishi Sunak wants to see largely eradicated by the end of this year.

Instead of a face-to-face interview, some 12,000 asylum seekers from Afghanistan, Eritrea, Libya, Syria and Yemen will fill in a 10-page questionnaire in English.

Applicants from these countries already have 95% of their asylum claims accepted, says the Home Office.

Officials say claimants will undergo a face-to-face interview if caseworkers are not satisfied with the information provided in the questionnaire.

The new figures show that, overall, more than three quarters (75%) of asylum decisions made in 2022 were in favour of granting asylum, the highest in more than 30 years.

However the actual number of decisions made in 2022 was 10% below the level before the pandemic.

The 166,000 backlog includes people waiting for the outcome of appeals as well as for initial decisions. This figure is a rise of 60% on last year and is more than 160,000 for the first time.

Of those whose applications were refused last year, 3,531 people were returned by the Home Office, either voluntarily or forcibly, in the year to the end of September, marginally higher than the previous year.

However these figures are far lower than for 2012 when there were 15,000 returns, and 2004 when there were more than 21,000.

When forcible returns are considered separately, the figure for last year was just 489, compared with almost 6,800 in 2010.

Conservative party chairman Greg Hands said: "We need to get to grips with the backlog... Absolutely we're committed to the safety and security of this country.

"There's still a very strong process in place. We're talking here about cases that would be granted, we're just going to do it more quickly in a more streamlined way whilst making sure that public safety is secure."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-64744553

[Jimbuna]