Strike on North Korea

[Platapus]

If Kim launches one of his missiles at Guam won't the island tip over?

[Platapus]

Originally Posted by Onkel Neal

I've never been optimistic even when we had better leaders (Clinton, Bush). Everyone seems content to issue warnings and declare NK will not be allowed to have nukes without actually doing anything other than making treaties that NK easily breaks without significant consequences.

The problem is that there is not a lot of ways to prevent a country from developing nuclear weapons.

We can try to convince them that it is in their best interest not to develop nuclear weapons or we can bribe them, but in either case they would have to decide not to develop nuclear weapons. We can't force them to make that decision

We can talk to the other nuclear powers and persuade them not to share their nuclear technology with North Korea but that won't prevent them from developing nuclear weapons themselves. Again, we can't force the other nuclear powers not to share.

We can attempt to destroy the North Korean capability of developing nuclear weapons. That is not easy to do without destroying most of the country. North Korea is pretty rude and still refuses to concentrate their nuclear weapon development capability in isolated but clearly labeled buildings. It is not only dispersed but deeply underground.

Besides what better motivation for developing nuclear weapons can there be besides the threat from us that if you are developing nuclear weapons we will attack you. That just motivates them to develop nuclear weapons faster.

So while it is easy to blame past administrations, especially ones of of the other party, there really is nothing we could have done to prevent North Korea from developing nuclear weapons. The best we can do now is convince then that they should not use them.

There is simply no way we can convince North Korea that their possessing nuclear weapons is not in their best interest when it is clear that it IS in their best interest to have nuclear weapons.

Nuclear weapons are still one of the best defensive weapons ever devised.


As Plato once said "Do not forbid that which you lack the power to prohibit.

We need to ratchet back the rhetoric against North Korea. Let him rant.

Kim needs to appear to his people to be standing up to the US... let him If we challenge him on this we risk pushing him into a political corner. The last thing we need to do is put Kim into a position where he feels he as nothing else to lose. Then we all lose.

Kim Jong Un is a little dog yapping and snapping in a little yard surrounded by bigger dogs. He is not going anywhere. But on the other hand, you don't want to go into that yard and push him into a corner.

This is not a time for decisions to be based on national pride.

[Skybird]

Once Kim has nuclear ICBMs, he is not only untouchable, but can blackmail and raise troubles as he pleases, he has card blanche then.

Carthaginem esse delendam. Nunciam. If the Japanese are right, then time can run out just any day now.

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Skybird

Once Kim has nuclear ICBMs, he is not only untouchable, but can blackmail and raise troubles as he pleases, he has card blanche then.

Carthaginem esse delendam. Nunciam. If the Japanese are right, then time can run out just any day now.

I thought that NK already had ICBM, since some month back ? And from what i remember mentioned in this thread NK have probably increased the nukes so they fit inside the top of the ICBM.

Blackmail and raise troubles... Someone wrote that we should not press Kim Into a corner where he sees no other way out than start a war.

If Kim does as you wrote, then he are pressing other countries into a corner, where they see no other way out than a preemptive strike on NK.

(Some thoughts from an amateur)

Markus

[Skybird]

Kim already has nuclear bombs/devices since quite some time. Since years. We know that from international seismographic analysis when they tested their "toys".

His missiles however had not gotten the leg to reach out for the Northamerican continent so far - until now. In two or three years it could - it will - be Europe as well. China seems to have had a major hand in boosting the speed of the Northkorean development recently, maybe Russia as well.

He then had to miniaturize the nuclear bomb so that they fit on the tip of a long range missile. That then is called an ICBM, an intercontinental ballistic missile with nuclear warhead.

The endless appeasers and always reasonable oh so concerned philantropists assumed that NK still is some time away form miniaturizing the warheads for the needs of an ICBM. They never said however what to do once we would have been there. They hoped that this time would be delayed endlessly into the future, so that they could avoid forming tough decisions themselves - or would not be needed to explain their people why nuclear blackmail by a nuclear armed NKorea all of a sudden has become acceptable for the US and the West.

Japanese sources in the defence ministry now revealed that according to their information the Koreans are extremely close to completing their ICBM, much closer than was hoped by said philantropists.

Kim'S record of deeds and crimes, and that of his whole regime and the regime before him, is known. How anyone still could bet his money on him being reasonable and responsible and interested in the wellbeing of mankind, is beyond me. Such people to me are simply insane and dangerous.

There is a story from WWII that even got repeated in several novels, that famous it is . That is that when the first photographic evidence for the existence of Nazi death camps in Poland got smuggled to England, the representative of the British government should have said something like that he could not believe his eyes. When being asked whether he wanted to say by that that the photos are forged, he should have said that No, he did not believe somebody intentionally forged them or that they did not show the truth - only that he could not believe what his eyes were telling him, it was too horrific.

Thats is the attitude many Westerners are caught in today. They simply cannot imagine that somebody could be so insane that he intentionally presses the red button, or risks to have his country and people annihilated, or becomes a state leader without indeed being insane. Even when you tell them that Hitler ticked like this, and others as well - they refuse to learn the lesson. They just refuse to learn the lesson. They do not want to understand how nasty and dirty the world can be, and they think they collect heavenly scoring points for the afterlife if believing in the good of all men. Even in the good in the Hitlers and Kims, Saddams and Stalins of this world.

How infantil. I dispise such attitude to the max. It makes me sick.

[mapuc]

About 10 minutes ago I heard an military expert on Asia and NK saying on Danish news. In June NK fired two missiles, which later was
known(not correct word, but I forgot the word I had in mind) as ICBM.

He is not the only one saying these things about NK having or not having ICBM


Markus

[Gargamel]

Originally Posted by Platapus

We can talk to the other nuclear powers and persuade them not to share their nuclear technology with North Korea but that won't prevent them from developing nuclear weapons themselves. Again, we can't force the other nuclear powers not to share.

It's well beyond the point of not sharing. Yes, getting the expertise needed to make nuclear reastors or weapons is a huge accelerant to any program, but even if you don't have access to people or organizations that have already been there, there is always the library. The technology to make nuclear material is very simple, on paper, and is well documented publicly. It's just refining the process to get it right is what takes the time. So withholding the info just slows down a determined party. With enough money and resources and being left alone long enough , even an individual has the ability to start their own nuc program.

[vienna]

Originally Posted by Mr Quatro

NK is now threatening Guam where a couple of FBM submarines are in port at all times ...

The best thing for Trump is for NK to make the first move and blow him out of the skies and the water and launch an all out attack.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't the POTUS have to get Congress to agree to a first strike? Would it be the entire US Congress or would just a few on the intelligence committee be enough?

Good question with a tricky answer. Due to The War Powers Act passed in 1973 by Congress in an effort to curtail then President Nixon's ability to unilaterally to act militarily without prior counsel with or consent of Congress, the President does have a relatively wide degree of latitude regarding military action, but the extent of that latitude has been open to debate for a long time:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_Powers_Resolution

(Nixon vetoed the Act when it was passed, but Congress overwhelmingly overrode the veto.)

I would think (and hope) any possible use of US nuclear armaments would be subject to at least review by Congress, but, with the yahoo in the Oval Office, who knows; it is difficult to gauge the possible actions of someone who, during his campaign for office, repeatedly claimed he knew more than any of the US military's generals...





<O>

[Rockstar]

Originally Posted by Mr Quatro

NK is now threatening Guam where a couple of FBM submarines are in port at all times ...

The best thing for Trump is for NK to make the first move and blow him out of the skies and the water and launch an all out attack.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't the POTUS have to get Congress to agree to a first strike? Would it be the entire US Congress or would just a few on the intelligence committee be enough?

Mr Quatro doctrines regarding U.S. nuclear first strikes are already in place and at times they are changed to meet current needs. I seriously doubt that any desire to use such weapons will be made into a public spectacle between houses of government.

IMO the decision to launch will be in accordance with those doctrines and if its going to happen we will be the last to know.

[ikalugin]

Originally Posted by Rockstar

And why not others dont seem to have no problem selling NK everthing need to arm themselves with nuclear weapons.

I vote we equip Japan an South Korea with nuclear weapons immediately.

You probably mix up Iran and DPRK?

As to Japan and ROK, them going nuclear, especially Japan, would be messy (because everyone in the region hates Japan). Not that Japan could not start their own nuclear program with their developed nuclear industry.

[ikalugin]

I repeat: there ahve been reports saying that the Nkorean quick advances in their program would not have been possible without help from Russia or China, and that the equipment used in those missile developnments and as carrier platforms, bases on Chinese material.

Anything specific post 1991?

Once Kim has nuclear ICBMs, he is not only untouchable, but can blackmail and raise troubles as he pleases, he has card blanche then.

I disagree - ICBMs unlike research and produciton fascilitiies is something you can counter. DPRK would need a strong ICBM force (on the scale of PRCs') to penetrate the BMD of CONUS or the new -totally actually not against Russia- European BMD.

[Jimbuna]

Well, either way, matters should come to some sort of conclusion in the next few days or so.

North Korea says a plan that could see it fire four missiles near the US territory of Guam will be ready in a matter of days.
State media said Hwasong-12 rockets would pass over Japan and land in the sea about 30km (17 miles) from Guam, if the plan was approved by Kim Jong-un.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-40883372

I'd much rather said launch did not happen but if it did, I'm wondering if the capability is out there/in a prepared position to shoot them down.

[Schroeder]

Originally Posted by Skybird

Once Kim has nuclear ICBMs, he is not only untouchable

The Kims have been untouchable ever since China became their big buddy in the 1950ies....

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Schroeder

The Kims have been untouchable ever since China became their big buddy in the 1950ies....

No, untouchable they were not - just that the costs for touching them were considered to be too high when seeing that the possible gains were what they were: not compensating enough. But today, the stakes are much higher, and I doubt that China would go to nuclear war with the US if the Us strikes Korea. They want Korea as a sting in the US' pacific flank. They do not want Chinese cities being wiped out over Korea. Bejing is a tough political opponent, but rational. Pyöngyang is inhumane, and not rational at all. A rabied dog. Kim is trying to hold a razorknife at America's throat, right over the carotid, and he says he wants to cut it. No major power of imperial status with a selfunderstanding like the US has can afford to ignore that and let it go by unanswered.

Furthermore I consider that North Korea must be destroyed.

[Mr Quatro]

Originally Posted by ikalugin

As to Japan and ROK, them going nuclear, especially Japan, would be messy (because everyone in the region hates Japan). Not that Japan could not start their own nuclear program with their developed nuclear industry.

Japan's best kept secret is that they already have a nuclear weapons program, for defense only of course ... they just don't advertise it the way NK does.

Look how long it took for the world to find out that Israel had nuclear weapons to defend itself.