The Concentrated Fire Problem

crackaces · 02-09-11, 10:44 AM

In thiis forum there was a posting about concentrating fire and wondering about would not more ships concntrating fire even if there is a penalty be better since it would at least insure a hit?

I propose that the problem might be reduced into a "NOT" equation. That is what is the probability that my ships will miss instead of calculalting hits. Bullethead has posted that ships at range have a general base probability of 5%. I do not have access to the code so I am making up numbers, but you can see the trend. If the model is posted someday you can fill in the numbers.. Let us say there is a 50% penality for more than 2 ships so the probability to hit goes from 5% to 2.5%. That means that every shot has a 97.5% chance of missing. So the probaility of missing is (97.5% * 97.5 * 97.5) since every shell must miss else there is at least one hit. Thus in this model 50% penality for multiple ships means three ships firing have a about a 93% chance of missing or 7.3% chance of hitting. In a way we have reduced the effectiveness of each round to about 2.4% chance of hitting although we have increased the probability of any of the shells hitting by a mere 2%. Four ships brings this number to an overall 90% chance of missing or 10% chance of hitting at the cost of 2.5% for each shell. That does not consider the extraneous variables such as the penality for being under fire vs. not.

Maximzing the effect of each round is particularly important with the light ships since the loadout is so limited. If only 5% of the shells are hitting and the ammo load for each gun starts at 100 rounds it is clear that about 5 rounds per gun under the best of conditions on average are going to possibly cause damage.

One additonal thought is that the long campaign game is a war of attrition. Maximizing the effect of each shell, each ship, each division, each task force so you inflict the maximum gain for the war effort at the minimum cost. Like any long project where things go wrong one day at a time until one day disaster .. the long campaign game is a culmative summation of decisions. Spread the fire out

Thoughts?

02-09-11, 10:44 AM	#1
crackaces Watch Join Date: Jan 2011 Posts: 25 Downloads: 0 Uploads: 0	The Concentrated Fire Problem In thiis forum there was a posting about concentrating fire and wondering about would not more ships concntrating fire even if there is a penalty be better since it would at least insure a hit? I propose that the problem might be reduced into a "NOT" equation. That is what is the probability that my ships will miss instead of calculalting hits. Bullethead has posted that ships at range have a general base probability of 5%. I do not have access to the code so I am making up numbers, but you can see the trend. If the model is posted someday you can fill in the numbers.. Let us say there is a 50% penality for more than 2 ships so the probability to hit goes from 5% to 2.5%. That means that every shot has a 97.5% chance of missing. So the probaility of missing is (97.5% * 97.5 * 97.5) since every shell must miss else there is at least one hit. Thus in this model 50% penality for multiple ships means three ships firing have a about a 93% chance of missing or 7.3% chance of hitting. In a way we have reduced the effectiveness of each round to about 2.4% chance of hitting although we have increased the probability of any of the shells hitting by a mere 2%. Four ships brings this number to an overall 90% chance of missing or 10% chance of hitting at the cost of 2.5% for each shell. That does not consider the extraneous variables such as the penality for being under fire vs. not. Maximzing the effect of each round is particularly important with the light ships since the loadout is so limited. If only 5% of the shells are hitting and the ammo load for each gun starts at 100 rounds it is clear that about 5 rounds per gun under the best of conditions on average are going to possibly cause damage. One additonal thought is that the long campaign game is a war of attrition. Maximizing the effect of each shell, each ship, each division, each task force so you inflict the maximum gain for the war effort at the minimum cost. Like any long project where things go wrong one day at a time until one day disaster .. the long campaign game is a culmative summation of decisions. Spread the fire out Thoughts?