GER politics thread

[Skybird]

We have one for the US, we have one for the UK - but none for Germany, the only remaining most important player in the EU after Brexit?

I get it started here, and we start with this article on the current voters' mood in Germany and the chances of the two candidates for the German general elections in six months.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/...302-druck.html

P.S. Too bad that German media in past years have dramatically reduced their translation services and international (=English) media representation. Input from non-German media and international sources is thus welcomed.

[Oberon]

Schulz? Does the Luftwaffe have enough private charter flights for him?

I really can't see him with his EP record being any more popular than Tante Merkel, but at the moment I think a bag of concrete is probably more popular.
Still, either are better than Meuthen, Petry or Bachmann.
Whoever gets it though has their work cut out though, no mistake.

[Skybird]

Latest polls two days ago or so gave Schulz a 13 or 15 point lead over Merkel... Currently. And I think the absolute majority.

Its like it was in the US: Germans are called to choose between pest and cholera.

[Jimbuna]

Originally Posted by Skybird

Its like it was in the US: Germans are called to choose between pest and cholera.

LOL, isn't that the usual choice in many an election these days.

I wouldn't bet against Merkel, she is a survivor.

The question I pose is.....are the right in the likes of Germany, France, Holland etc. yet strong enough to build a majority or have the ability to find sufficient coalition partners to gain power?

At the present time I think not but there is growing support for such factions.

[Skybird]

Le Pen in France may have a realistic chance to become first already this coming election. Whether that automatically results in the FN forming a government coalition under its lead, is something else. But with so many people being fed up by the state of things in the West in general, anything is possible now.

[Skybird]

Germany finds it hard to adapt to the apparently coming age of tax wars. But with its strong export focus it is depending on an international system that both Trump and May openly threaten to destroy.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/...a-1134668.html

I often said that I consider a country whose economy is too dependent on exports and thus factors outside its influential reach, is not really strong in economics, but weak, because it is highly dependent and vulnerable. As every martial arts athlete knows: solid stand and flexible, dynamic body tension is everything. The German stand is anything but that strong as it seems.

[Skybird]

Quote: "A stream of euphemisms...hollow structures and a military that is slowly wearing out."

http://www.spiegel.de/international/...a-1136140.html

But the openly left-ocnrfessing SPD already tries to suffocate any further raises of defences by demoinosing it as a "rearmament spiral".

[Oberon]

Well, I imagine it is a bit of a twitchy subject in Germany, all things considered, bit like Japan (who spends 1.0%) but, certainly a measured increase would not go amiss. It's just a matter of framing it in a manner that doesn't stir up old ghosts.

[Jimbuna]

That is an interesting article Sky and I suspect, accurate and indicative of more than a few NATO members.

[ikalugin]

It is the problem of mass.

I am not sure if any NATO member (with exception of the US) can muster sufficient mass for independent operations. For example European old core members (France, UK, Germany) at best could assemble a light mechanized corps each (2 mech divisions, UK can no longer do this), meaning that they are unable to conduct independent operational level warfighting.

Thus, paradoxically European nation-states would have to either do something revolutional or to transfer their national soverenity to some third party. In my opinion it is in the interests of those nation-states and their people to transfer their soverenity to an entity answerable to them.

[Oberon]

Originally Posted by ikalugin

In my opinion it is in the interests of those nation-states and their people to transfer their soverenity to an entity answerable to them.

You'd need to erase two millennia of history to get that to happen.

[ikalugin]

Originally Posted by Oberon

You'd need to erase two millennia of history to get that to happen.

I disagree - there were moments in history when nation-states have merged for the purpose of security.

The key here, in my opinion, is making EU structures democratic - ie answerable to the people of the EU and elected by the people of the EU.

[Skybird]

http://www.dw.com/en/report-germany-...sis/a-37817614

"No leading German politician was willing to take responsibility for the possibly illegal decision at the end, "Welt am Sonntag" said in its report."

So they have chosen for a fully legal disaster instead.

"(Merkel) also reportedly wanted to limit bad press that would have arisen from pictures of German authorities enforcing the border closure and their interactions with refugees."

Clear case of personal failure(s) then.

Or as Hayek said so nicely: In government, the scum raises to the top.

[Skybird]

After the state of Hesse announced that Erdoghan is no longer welcomed in Germany, the AKP let announce via her platform UETP that until the referendum no more Turkish ministers will try to come to Germany to hold rallies. Originally around 30 more of such visits were planned.

Erdoghan meanwhile had started to not just attack Germany and the anonymous political scene in general, but has become poerosnalyl offensive again merkel and repeatedly defamed her personally.

Since a few days however the number of migrants arriving in grecce and coming from Turkey, has dramatically grown. It seems Turkey has opened at least some flood gates.

Recent publications in newspapers and book form lay out the case of that in 2015 the German government was indeed quite prepaaredf to close the borders when the mirgants storm began. But cabinet members feared the bad images of migrants becoming violent and borde rguards needing to act resolute in defending the border and refusing them to pass. So Merkel, the inteiror mionister and all others as well capitulated to the cirucmstance and said: let them pass. This so is a total government failure, and an irresponisble neglect of duties of all according ministers and Merkel herself. Nobody wnated to take the responsibility.

[Skybird]

Merkel is facing consevatives in her own party organising and unifying, forming a new front against her left-leaning policy.

http://www.dw.com/en/merkel-and-the-...ght/a-38075019

Merkel has stayed in power for over a decade because whenever a poltila opponent showe dup, she annexed his agenda and made it her own. By that she now stands for all and nothing, for the only principle of that no principle shall come in her way. 100% opprtunism. Within her own poarty, all poltical heavy weights that at the beginning of her reign were not in line with here, have been mobbed out, promoted out of the way, frustrated until they voluntarily quite. The personnel pool of he rparty is comp0letely eroded, exhausted, empty. Which explaisn why the CDU is so desperately sticking to her - they have no alternatives anymore.

However, I think that Merkel will not win elections again this year. Which will give us the great ego of Martin Schultz, one of the worst left populists and agitators there are in Germany, and Europe. Unbearable.

So better Merkel? Unbearable as well. Mass migration that she channeled to Europe and Germany and her unwillingness to fulfill the constitutional duty of the govenrment to secure the borders - these two things have broken the people's loyalty for her. Plus a subjective feeling that she already is in office since 20 years. Germans grow tired of her.