The all purpose terrorism thread featuring plenty of allah akbar

[Bilge_Rat]

Interesting .... US/UK is accusing Russia of war crimes for allegedly using "Bunker Busting" bombs against targets in Aleppo.

Turns out NATO has also dropped "Bunker Busting " bombs in Libya and the current campaign against ISIS:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016...e-in-isil-war/

http://news.nationalpost.com/full-co...depose-gaddafi

So why is the use of such ordnance now a "war crime"? because the Russians are dropping them instead of NATO?

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Bilge_Rat

Interesting .... US/UK is accusing Russia of war crimes for allegedly using "Bunker Busting" bombs against targets in Aleppo.

Turns out NATO has also dropped "Bunker Busting " bombs in Libya and the current campaign against ISIS:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016...e-in-isil-war/

http://news.nationalpost.com/full-co...depose-gaddafi

So why is the use of such ordnance now a "war crime"? because the Russians are dropping them instead of NATO?

Not to take side

Didn't NATO use their Bunker Buster against the ordinary Libyan army, while Russia/Syria has used it against a non-ordinary army.

Markus

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by mapuc

Not to take side

Didn't NATO use their Bunker Buster against the ordinary Libyan army, while Russia/Syria has used it against a non-ordinary army.

Markus

The Syrians/Russians use them against tunnels and subterranean enemy strongholds and storage sites, apparently. Just saying.

Israel went after such subterranean targets as well during Gaza 2006. The amount of destruction in Aleppo is for the same reasons like in Gaza, I assume: its densely populated, urban environments with buildings standing side by side.

Tell the rebels to line up in the desert so that they can be bombed there, and collateral damages will go down in Aleppo. Also helps to save the amount of atockpiled bunker busters the Syrians got delivered from the Russians (at least I think they got them from them, as long as the Russians do not bomb themselves).

[Bilge_Rat]

the Guardian has a more in depth article on the subject:

Justin Bronk, research fellow at the defence thinktank RUSI, explained that bunker-busters are a very specific kind of destructive precision weaponry. “They show up as very different-shaped craters. They go very deep and explode deep underground so they tend to leave deeper but less wide craters than other bombs.”

He added it was very unlikely Russia would use such specific bombs at random or simply to blitz a city since they are very expensive and require specific targeting intelligence to be worth using. If they hit an underground shelter the number of deaths would be huge, but it would be much lower than other generalised heavy bombs if no specific target had been located.

He added it was quite possible Russia had acquired detailed information on the location of opposition headquarters. Both sides in the conflict are very aware the other is using underground tunnels to fight these quite static battles, and may have good intelligence of the other’s networks.

He added the most likely bomb being deployed was the laser-guided KAB-500L, analogous to the US Paveway series.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...r-bomb-reports

If Russia is using this ordnance, it is presumably to hit underground rebel structures, which are military targets.

If Russia is using the bombs to deliberately hit civilian targets, then yes that would be a war crime, although there are more effective, less expensive way to hit civilian targets then using PGMs.

In 2011, NATO frequently used "Bunker Busting" bombs to hit underground military targets in downtown Tripoli.

This war is getting worse by the day and there is no end in sight.

[Schroeder]

Originally Posted by Bilge_Rat

This war is getting worse by the day and there is no end in sight.

Actually there now is an end in sight. Not in near sight but the Syrian army is gaining ground thanks to the air support they get. Our way of waging that war was just a never ending story. There is no way to win this without boots on the ground which is why our air campaign is about as helpful as Rolling Thunder was in Vietnam IMHO.
The Russian/Syrian way of fighting is dirty and cruel but at least they are making progress so there might be an end to this nightmare somewhere down the road instead of this never ending carnage that we've had until now.

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Schroeder

Actually there now is an end in sight. Not in near sight but the Syrian army is gaining ground thanks to the air support they get. Our way of waging that war was just a never ending story. There is no way to win this without boots on the ground which is why our air campaign is about as helpful as Rolling Thunder was in Vietnam IMHO.
The Russian/Syrian way of fighting is dirty and cruel but at least they are making progress so there might be an end to this nightmare somewhere down the road instead of this never ending carnage that we've had until now.

Could also be the start of the next step in the war.

Markus

[August]

Originally Posted by mapuc

Could also be the start of the next step in the war.

Markus

I'm afraid you're right. This doesn't end with an Assad victory.

[kraznyi_oktjabr]

Originally Posted by August

I'm afraid you're right. This doesn't end with an Assad victory.

Well, at the moment it looks like Russians have decided this won't end to their defeat either.

If someone has Syrian leader candidate in mind who would be palatable for both West and Russia, and who would be willing to provide guarantees for Russia's interests (whatever they may be), then I would like to know who that miracle maker is. Otherwise Assad's victory and iron fist rule looks like best of bad options...

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by August

I'm afraid you're right. This doesn't end with an Assad victory.

It ends with a split Syria if Assad stays. The part he controls as a Russian puppet then, maybe will regain some stability, the rest will drown in civil war between those who now are "united" to fight him.

If Assad's side looses, then all of Syria will drown in such a civil war, not just some part.

The worst is yet to come.

Or in other words: Syria, as a nation with the borders we once knew, is a thing of the past. The stability and predictability that was there before, though enforced with an iron fist, was to be preferred to the unpredictable chaos there is now, and will be for many more years to come - if not for decades.

Winner:clearly Russia. It keeps its wanted naval base in the Mediterranean. And has managed to lure the West again into making a fool of itself.

Lets see if somebody in Europe and Washington learns the lesson this time, finally. By now the lecture has been repeated often enough, one would think.

[MaDef]

Originally Posted by kraznyi_oktjabr

Well, at the moment it looks like Russians have decided this won't end to their defeat either.

If someone has Syrian leader candidate in mind who would be palatable for both West and Russia, and who would be willing to provide guarantees for Russia's interests (whatever they may be), then I would like to know who that miracle maker is. Otherwise Assad's victory and iron fist rule looks like best of bad options...

While I understand the reasons Russia is involved In the Syrian civil war, I don't quite get the reason the rest of us are involved. This civil war is and should remain an internal matter between the Syrian Government and her citizens.

[August]

Originally Posted by Skybird

It ends with a split Syria if Assad stays. The part he controls as a Russian puppet then, maybe will regain some stability, the rest will drown in civil war between those who now are "united" to fight him.

You think that Assad/Putin will stop before they regain control over the entire country?

[mapuc]

If Assad and Putin has decided to go into highest gear, then I predict that USA and NATO will go into the war on the YPG/Free Syrian army's side

If the West somehow get Assad to approve a real free election I predict a new civil war-depending who win this election-This because no side in this ongoing civil war, will recognize the outcome.

So either this civil war will grow or it will go on for decades and if, as Skybird wrote, Syria was divided into several small states there will be war between these.

Markus

[kraznyi_oktjabr]

I don't believe in serious American or NATO intervenition. There are two primary reasons:
1) Most NATO countries are preoccupied with refugee crisis. There is no guarantee that boots-in-the-ground approach against Russia and Syrian government would provide any benefit.
2) It is election year in USA. There are not many people who would benefit from proposing war with Russia, atleast not before election day.

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by kraznyi_oktjabr

I don't believe in serious American or NATO intervenition. There are two primary reasons:
1) Most NATO countries are preoccupied with refugee crisis. There is no guarantee that boots-in-the-ground approach against Russia and Syrian government would provide any benefit.
2) It is election year in USA. There are not many people who would benefit from proposing war with Russia, atleast not before election day.

You could be 100 % right, I'm not an expert on foreign affairs or Middle east politics, I can only give further, what i for about a week ago heard a journalist(some expert on Middle east) saying

(from my memory)
All the effort to come to an agreement on a ceasefire and a solution, seems ineffective and then something about the only solution then would be USA, EU/NATO had to go to war against Syria and Russia.

Markus

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by mapuc

If Assad and Putin has decided to go into highest gear, then I predict that USA and NATO will go into the war on the YPG/Free Syrian army's side

If the West somehow get Assad to approve a real free election I predict a new civil war-depending who win this election-This because no side in this ongoing civil war, will recognize the outcome.

So either this civil war will grow or it will go on for decades and if, as Skybird wrote, Syria was divided into several small states there will be war between these.

Markus

The US and NATO will not confront Russia or syria in major war over Syria. Too much a worry for too little gain.

I do not think Syria will fall apart into several states. Just a reduced core state controlled by Assad, its territories and the population there matching his ethnic background, and the rest will be endlessly fought over by his enemies. Libanon on mind. Assad seems to stay in power, but he probably will not get away with all of the former size of Syria anymore.

However, I already got once proven terribly wrong over Syria. Some years ago I said, before the Russians went serious, that I cannot imagine him to hold out any longer and that he will soon be defeated. How wrong I was. The Russians made all the difference.