GER politics thread

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by ikalugin

Outright or how we did it?

If I can trust the media, German tourists have significantly dropped Turkey, but Russians have almost completely skipped it, or not?

[ikalugin]

I meant in terms of the state regulation, ie Russian State didn't ban travel to Turkey, but banned charter flights (you could still use regaular sheduled ones) and tourist company packages (you could still book the hotell and buy tickets yourself).

But I think the effect of regulation would depend on the market structure.

[Skybird]

I put this here, since it is in German, but it deals with why the Western military made a terrible mistake to not take into account the overwhelming power of demographics when assessing and dealing with the wars in Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, since the 70s. Rise and increase in powers of the militias still are a secret for many Wetswern analysts, it seems. It is no secret at all, but a result of tunnel viewing.

Link: 50 years of war in Iraq would not be a surprise at all

Demographics - that is a huge nuclear bomb without needing to have a nuclear bomb in it to be of devastating, overwhelming power.

[Skybird]

It started as the Dieselgate for VW in the US over one year ago. And since then, it has become worse and worse and worse.

http://www.dw.com/en/new-report-mass...ers/a-39793521

In no other industrialised nation, car making is of that financial and economic paramount importance, than in Germany. The powerhouse Germany is unthinkable without the car making sector.

And these traitors ruined it, and continue to cheat and lie, to delay and to obscure. This is not just a costly damage to Germany'S reputation and image - it simply is outright dangerous, since the mess has some potential to send the whole German economy into a steep dive. It simply is very dangerous on an existential level.

In the past I repeatedly said I disagree with the characterisation of Germany as an economically powerful nation. Due to its high dependence on exports, to me it is terribly vulnerable. And that it is focussed to so far-reaching degrees on just one single industrial branch, is another major vulnerability. Not chemistry and not machine building are as important for the social and financial basis in Germany, than car making and all its sub-contractor networks are. Additionally the car makers heavily depend on these sub contractors who deliver parts to the various car systems - of all brands. Competences and expertise has been outsourced that way, and now would cost many years and heavy monetarian investments to regain - and years of time . One small company dropout some months ago sent the factories into a standstill and workers back home for several days.

Dangerous. Some giant is standing on feet made of clay here.

Additionally, the EU and France want to sharpen regulations for car makers even more, with conditions that strengthen French car makers and weaken German ones, due to the different design philosophies.

Really, dangerous. German politics try to remain remarkably silent over the issues. It touches industrial Germany's life arteria.

[Catfish]

Yes tragic, who would have ever thought the automobile industry could be lying. After the horse dealers, gold rush, oil industry and all that.

All do it. Also BMW, Peugeot, Fiat, GM.

I'm sure all others do it, too. Just wait a bit...

[Schroeder]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

One quick and potentially quite effective non-military action would be to stop tourism in Turkey from German nationals.

Forget it. Turkey is cheap and why would I care for democracy and human rights..../sarcasm.
Sad but it's true with a lot of German tourists.

[Skybird]

Fact is, Schroeder, that there was a decline of over 40% last year in German tourist numbers, and this year it promises to be even more. Many hotels were not booked to even just 25%.

The question is whether it remains like this over the years. It would create immense inner pressure for Erdoghanistan. Which I want.

Russians also are very important for Turkish tourism industry. Last year, the numbers of Russian tourists dropped by over 90%.andrd warning there is now.

I think there should be a full, formal travel warning instead the lower standard formulation there is in place now.

I also think that states should be freed of legal/diplomatic responsibilities for taking care of private tourists travelling to places for which formal travel warnings exist, and then get into trouble there for reasons the travel wanrings mentioned. Everybody has the right to be stupid, but he has no right to demand that others must come to his rescue when he acts intentionally stupid. The stupidity of the few should not make the many vulnerable for blackmailing.

[Skybird]

Hm, it seems to be the Russians already coming back. They are the second biggest tourist group after the Germans. German tourists still stay away, numbers decline.

http://www.dw.com/en/as-german-spat-...ere/a-39813794

Not that I think Erdoghan cares at all as long as his pockets fill up. This German article says since last year he has confiscated private property worth 60 billion Euros. Reminds me of the confiscation of Jewish wealth by the Nazi regime.

http://www.huffingtonpost.de/celal-f...hp_ref=germany

[ikalugin]

http://carnegieeurope.eu/strategiceurope/71590
mmmm libruls mmmm

[Schroeder]

Originally Posted by Skybird

Fact is, Schroeder, that there was a decline of over 40% last year in German tourist numbers, and this year it promises to be even more. Many hotels were not booked to even just 25%.

That means that 50+% of us still don't give a sheet.

[Jimbuna]

Originally Posted by Schroeder

Forget it. Turkey is cheap and why would I care for democracy and human rights..../sarcasm.
Sad but it's true with a lot of German tourists.

Probably the same with Brits and most other western countries

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by ikalugin

http://carnegieeurope.eu/strategiceurope/71590
mmmm libruls mmmm

Yes, a typical evasion strategy project. The plan is to compensate for lacking German personell to hold crew and troop levels even at their current levels by letting people from other nations manning the platforms and doing the fight. I mean the non-fight, and with platforms not being there. Nothing against the concept of a German foreign legion. This project is that not.

I alkso think it will not work, becasue what this plan wants to try on international level, alreacy has been tried in Germany on national level: the clustering and equipm ent sharing thing, that is. It is a disaster, and resulted in budget cuts leading to a threatneing lack of equipment on all levels and the inability to properly all troops according to their total strength of paper. Two soldiers share one rifle, so to speak.

Anyway, I see a huge lack of fighting willingness in the West, slightl yless extreme in states like Britain, the US, maybe France, but generally very high in the remainign Western states, so that I think it doe snot matter that much anyway. See the book I recommended in the thread "Pussycats", it illustrates perfectly the core of the problemn. And that problem will not be solved at all by more technology research, raises in defence budgets, and clever plans. Its a mentality problem, a cultural problem.

And I stick to it what I said before on some occaisons. I see no reason in installing parallel military structures and "doubling" the costs, when there already is one military defence conception/structure: NATO. If states underfound their commitment to NAOT, why does one want to assume that suddenly they invest money into defence that the save regarding NATO, just becasue they now run a second defence structre parallel to the first? Better idea is to boost the spending within the NATO framework, and national defence budgets in general , and by that also riasing claim for less American influence in NATO (at the cost of more European responsibility).

Lets face it, this new plan is just Germany dancing pirouettes aroudn the simple fact that Gertmans are not willing to join the armed forces in sufficient numberts. Thats imple the real reason is. Now we expect the people from other states to fill the gaps.

The last big wars and military adventures by Wetsern militaries, all had been handed away, were turned into defeats and strategic losses, especially Iraq and Afghanistan. The West excel in the paradoxy ofg being tehcnically hopelessly superior - and loosing its military interventions with sleepwalking security. As I said: the problem lies in the field of culture, mentlaity, a general softening of mind and attitude, a creeping feminization of the male culture (by now not that creeping at all anymore, but disturbingly open and brutal already). Give a pussycat a hightech weapon, and what you get is not a warrior by magical transformation, but just a pussycat with - well, with a hightech weapon. The mindset is the decisive difference, also and especially on the political level.

And that is the devil of it.

[Skybird]

From an economic point of view, dual military structures make no sense to me. I would accept the idea of forming purely european structures only if we save ourselves from further keeping NATO alive. Lets dismantle NATO then, and fulfill Moscow's wet dream of getting the US out of its European engagement. If it is about keeping the US, then the answer is NATO. And NATO alone, and fully supported even more, but with reduced US political command influence in it. To justify that demand, Europe has to engage itself much more in NATO.

What the Germans imagine now, imo only is managing the deficits without needing to invest themselves too much. I seriously doubt that a Russia suddenly going into amok mode would be very impressed, not to mention: deterred. Brute force and unscrupulous use of it have their own convincing value, not easy to be impressed by European piety and sensible concerns. These structures the Germans envision: to me they look too dependent, too fragile, too unfit to survive the brutality and losses of a real war. Its a nice construction for policing, maybe. Not for warring.

More troops, and more equipment. Rotating equipment amongst units is not creating additional strength. Worse: you have no reserves to compensate for losses in man and material, in case of fighting breaking out.

It reminds me a bit of attempts on how to tackle the financial crisis by trying to hand out more credits.

[ikalugin]

I think the core problems for armed forces of European nation-states are:
- limited budgets. (need for social spending, etc)
- low purchasing power. (high wages, expensive arms)
- manpower shortages. (few people willing to serve per wage offered)

This cooperation model adresses them, however it creates problems:
- lack of unity of command. (in wartime this whole structure must act as one)
and/or
- transfer of soverenity to a third party. (nation-states would not be able to mount defense independently or to operate out of area)

Note that the "NATO" model also creates the very same problems, the difference is that soverenity is transfered to US rather than a European nation-state or organisation of European nation-states.

The way the cooperation model can be improved, in my opinion, is by adressing it's problems - by forcing unity of command, yet creating a common democratic authority behind that unity of command.

[mapuc]

Or companies taking advantage in a contract with the government-know this from my own life and experience-A building company wrote a contract with the Danish government on a construction the added some extra to the prices and talked the politicians down-Just like a saleman does with an ordinary person.

Remember a politician is an ordinary person who have been elected in an election and are susceptible as any one else-when some salemen start talking warmly about the product.

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