The CHN/ China thread

[em2nought]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

Xi Jinping humiliated as overseas attack exposes 'painful' military weakness

Luckily for them their likely opponents only major concerns are wokeness and diversity hiring with a bit of transgenderism thrown in for good measure.

[Jimbuna]

[em2nought]

Chyna just missed their golden opportunity to "rain" those missiles down with our Secretary of Defense being AWOL in the hospital four days without anybody in the chain of command even knowing about it. Maybe Dr. Jill knew?

[Jimbuna]

[Jimbuna]

[Jimbuna]

[Skybird]

If sober rationality forms the Chinese government's (=Xi's) thinking, this ^ might have a chance to get true. One would need to trust them that they do nto crack down on Taiwan as they did with Hongkong. Is there something indicating that they wouldn't? No. But assume for a moment they would nto use the Hongkong method on Taiwan.

Then one would still need to assume that Xi's is not an old man driven by basic stubborness to enforce his nationalistic irrational history-drunk dream for merely principle reasons. He as well as the whole state of China shows an outstanding desinterest and disrespect for human dignity and human rights, and I mean general human rights and not just some Western set of values. Just look at how they deal with dissent internally in their society, how cold and inhumae and draconic the regime treats its own citizens.

I think I cannot make myself believe in the goodness of the Chinese regime that is preconditions for the Yeo-model to have a chance to become true without later disgusting consequences. Or in brief: I just cannot make myself trusting China.

My idea would be to give Taiwan nuclear weapons. And THEN try the Yeo model.

The outlook on how the bomb is ticking and the US wont be able to wage war against China in a few years I share. I warned of the balance shifting against the US since years, didn't I.

Maybe Yeo believes in Xi's reasonability like the West trusted in Putin's.

If Taiwan would not have that chip industry, I would say we should not get overly engaged. Its all just about that damn chip industry. If it falls to China, then Bejing has the West finally completely by its balls. And it would give China's further technological boost and military capacity a turbo boost.

[Skybird]

Counting is under way in Taiwan. Lai from the DPP leads with 40%. That would be a blow to China who tried to prevent him with aggressive campaigning since he is a representative of the political camp propagating strong independence for Taiwan.
Bejing will be angry, that much is certain.

Interesting, and frustrating. International press and media report on this, in parts on page one. In Germany: almost no word on it, all media are focussed on endless German "Nabelschau" (navel gazing?). And this while the Taiwan issue is at least as relevant for all of us as the Ukraine war.

[Jimbuna]

Voting has ended and counting is under way in Taiwan's presidential election, in a vote which will determine the territory's future ties with China.

Counting so far shows the candidate from the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which is seeking a third term, leading the main opposition Kuomintang, or KMT

DPP candidate William Lai has been labelled a troublemaker by China, who warned people against voting for him, while KMT is promising better ties with Beijing and peace in the Taiwan Strait.

Taiwan is a democratic island that governs itself - but it is claimed by mainland China and has no international recognition as a country.

A third party, the Taiwan People's Party, is on the ballot but opinion polls which ended two weeks ago showed a tight race between the DPP and KMT
A total of 113 legislative seats are also being contested today.

Taiwanese voters, however, are more concerned about the economy than they are about China.

[Jimbuna]

[Skybird]

Ah, now the press wakes up a bit. Maybe I was just too early.

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

Taiwanese voters, however, are more concerned about the economy than they are about China.

So were most Ukrainians before February 24th 2022. Eyes wide shut, heads erected deep into the sand.

[Dargo]

The Taiwanese politician Lai Ching-te has for years been reviled by China’s Communist Party as a dangerous foe who, by its account, could drag the two sides into a war by pressing for full independence for his island democracy. Right up to Saturday, when millions of Taiwanese voted for their next president, an official Beijing news outlet warned that Mr. Lai could take Taiwan “on a path of no return.”

Yet, despite China’s months of menacing warnings of a “war or peace” choice for Taiwan’s voters, Mr. Lai was elected president.

Mr. Lai, currently Taiwan’s vice president, secured 40 percent of the votes in the election, giving his Democratic Progressive Party, or D.P.P., a third term in a row in the presidential office. No party has achieved more than two successive terms since Taiwan began holding direct, democratic elections for its president in 1996... https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/13/w...&smid=tw-share

[ET2SN]

This will take a while, but its worth it for the war gamers out there.

Some things I'm wondering about (you really want to watch the full vid, first):

-I like the idea that they ran the game something like 25 times but it doesn't sound like they varied it much. In other words BOTH sides kept repeating the same mistakes.

- There were a couple of times when I thought "OK, that was just BS" but the more I thought about it, the more I would concede the point. Don't be in a hurry to make rash decisions.

[Dargo]

I suggest reading the full report https://csis-website-prod.s3.amazona...hFolxC_gZQuSOQ
That it will cost dearly on both sides is common with an amphibious invasion, war gaming like planning an invasion are not always the outcome it takes several plans that all can go wrong in real time.

[Jimbuna]