The CHN/ China thread

[Jimbuna]

[Jimbuna]

[em2nought]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

When you say "The big guy" I'm not sure who you are referring to.

"The Big Guy" is how his brother, Frank, referred to him. aka Joe Biden, aka sleepy joe, aka Brandon.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/polit...uy/ar-AA1eEhWC

[Jimbuna]

Originally Posted by em2nought

"The Big Guy" is how his brother, Frank, referred to him. aka Joe Biden, aka sleepy joe, aka Brandon.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/polit...uy/ar-AA1eEhWC

Ah right

[Rockstar]

Looks like the other global power is taking advantage of Russia’s weakness and kicking Putin hard when he’s down. This goes hand in hand with the idea western powers are not interested in a quick victory in Ukraine. But weaken Russia and use Ukraine as a springboard into Central Asia while China takes advantage and squeezes Russia in the far east. That’s my take on it, I could be wrong.

ExclusiveChina wielding ‘bargaining power’ with Russia over Power of Siberia 2 natural gas pipeline

Construction of the Power of Siberia 2 natural gas pipeline is likely to be slower than expected despite the ‘no limit’ strategic partnership between Beijing and Moscow

Russian President Vladimir Putin has promised to export at least 98 billion cubic metres per year of gas from Russia to China

https://www.scmp.com/economy/global-...l-gas-pipeline

Construction of one of Russia’s key natural gas projects to ensure a financial lifeline overseas is likely to be slower than expected as China seeks to leverage its “bargaining stance”, according to a Russian source and Chinese analysts.

The discussions with Beijing over the construction of the Power of Siberia 2 natural gas pipeline, a long touted signal of bilateral cooperation, have progressed slowly.

The pipeline, if completed, would divert 50 billion cubic metres (1.8 trillion cubic feet) of natural gas per year that previously supplied Europe to north China, offering a significant boost to Beijing’s energy security.

To export at least 98 billion cubic metres per year of gas from Russia to China as promised by Russian President Vladimir Putin, figures from Spanish multinational financial services firm BBVA showed that the new pipeline is needed because the Power of Siberia 1 is limited to 67 billion cubic metres per year.

A source with knowledge of the issue in Russia said China is showcasing a “bargaining stance”.

“[Beijing] understands really well their bargaining power and the country is in a much stronger position,” the source said.

“It’s a specific presidential-level of pressure. It’s about cheaper payment. They can demand deep discounts.”

The source also noted that Putin is under “enormous pressure” to build the pipeline or otherwise “a huge amount of gas” will be wasted and Russia will lose money.

Russian President Vladimir Putin is welcomed by Chinese President Xi Jinping at the Belt and Road Forum in Beijing, China, October 17, 2023. Photo: Reuters
“In terms of construction, [Beijing] wants to make sure that they have no risks and no costs. Russia is the side that foots the entire bill,” added the source, who was unwilling to disclose their name due to the sensitivity of the issue.

The project would be a new test to the “no limit” strategic partnership between Beijing and Moscow, especially after Russia was hit with unprecedented sanctions from Western countries in response to the invasion of Ukraine, which blocked Russian natural gas supplies to Europe.

Li Lifan, a Russia and Central Asia specialist at the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, said the proposed pipeline would be favourable for Russia as it is shorter and construction costs would be lower.

However, Li said that China once insisted on building the pipeline through the Altay prefecture in the Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region as it would not pass through Mongolia.

China has shown a prudent attitude towards the project, with the Power of Siberia 2 seldom mentioned in government documents or state media.

There were talks that a deal could be made during the belt and road forum held in Beijing in mid-October, but Putin eventually returned empty-handed.

During her visit to the Mongolian capital of Ulaanbaatar in October, Russian deputy prime minister Viktoria Abramchenko mentioned that feasibility research had been completed and design work would finish this year.

She estimated that the construction of the Power of Siberia 2 could start after the design work is approved in the first quarter of 2024.

It is estimated that it will take six years to complete. The deal for Power of Siberia 1 was signed in 2014 and it started operations in 2019.

Munkhnaran Bayarlkhagva, a former official at the National Security Council of Mongolia, said that Ulaanbaatar may delay the process as it is not a necessity.

“We haven’t even talked about the pricing, tariffs, taxes, et cetera,” he said. “So [it is] safe to say nothing will happen in the 2024 construction season.”

Bayarlkhagva added that Putin met Mongolian President Ukhnaa Khurelsukh on the sidelines of the belt and road forum in Beijing in October, with the Russian leader saying that “everyone agrees on the project” to obtain a confirmation from Mongolia, but no positive response was given.

The Office of the President of Mongolia declined a request to comment.

“Now the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline is the cooperation of three parties – China, Russia and Mongolia – abundant negotiation is needed by following the general market standard,” said Zhao Long, assistant director of the Institute for Global Governance Studies at the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies.

The project has a medium to long-term value that “[Beijing] has to make decisions based on the country’s actual demands, gas import layout, as well as the international and regional situations”, he added.

Despite the slow progress, geopolitics have reinforced Beijing’s strategy for diversification of imports, said Ma Bin, an associate professor at Fudan University’s Centre for Russian and Central Asian Studies.

With the snowy winter creeping into northern China, its annual natural gas consumption is estimated to increase by 5.5 to 7 per cent in 2023, year on year, to 390 billion cubic metres, according to a report by the National Energy Administration. This would reverse a 1.2 per cent decline in 2022.

“In order to ensure a stable and reliable supply of energy, China imports gas from Australia, Qatar, Central Asia and Russia,” added Ma.

[Jimbuna]

[Jimbuna]

[Jimbuna]

[Skybird]

Of gold and war.

https://www-theeuropean-de.translate..._x_tr_pto=wapp

[Jimbuna]

China issues terrifying retaliation warning as UK slammed over new Ukraine sanctions

China has vowed to retaliate against the West after the UK imposed more sanctions on "individuals and groups supporting and funding Putin's war machine".

China's embassy has accused the UK of violating international law over the new round of sanctions, and issued a terrifying warning that any action harming China's interests "would be met with a firm response".

In a statement the sabre-rattling Chinese authorites said Britain should "correct its mistakes and withdraw sanctions on Chinese firms" after the government here announced 46 new sanctions with targets including businesses in China, Belarus, Serbia, Turkey, the UAE and Uzbekistan.

As well as businesses, 31 people and entities are also on the new sanctions list released today which the government said were linked to the design and manufacture of drones and missile parts and the import of electronic components.

In a statement from the Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office the department said: "Foreign military suppliers exporting equipment and parts to Russia are among dozens of individuals and groups sanctioned today to target those helping Putin's war machine.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...ed13af76&ei=12

[Skybird]

https://www.nzz.ch/meinung/xi-jinpin..._x_tr_pto=wapp

(...) Presidential and parliamentary elections will take place in Taiwan in January 2024. An election victory for the current vice president of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party, Lai Ching-te, is considered likely. Xi will then be over seventy years old. It is unlikely that the dictator-for-life will accept that a potential President Lai will continue to consolidate Taiwan's democracy over the next four years. Xi is not getting any younger and he will soon lack the strength for an aggressive war.
(...)
A war in the Taiwan Strait would cripple global supply chains, trigger a flight of investors into gold and US bonds and lead to a sharp rise in energy prices. A study by the Rhodium Group estimates the economic damage from such a conflict at over two trillion dollars. What can be done to hopefully ensure this scenario never occurs?

Even if Europe does not have its own security policy role in East Asia, the Europeans should keep the USA's back free. This means that much more must be done by the European side to ensure that Ukraine wins the war. A defeat for Putin would show Xi that imperial wars of aggression are not worthwhile. The US needs this division of labor with Europe so that it has enough capacity to maintain the status quo in the Taiwan Strait through military deterrence. This time we shouldn't wait until it's too late again.

[em2nought]

Originally Posted by Skybird

Of gold and war.

https://www-theeuropean-de.translate..._x_tr_pto=wapp

Chyna is too smart for us.

[Jimbuna]

Originally Posted by em2nought

Chyna is too smart for us.

That is my fear as well

[Jimbuna]

South China sea tensions explode as Xi Jinping launches major military operation on Taiwan

Taipei raised alarm bells as it said to have detected multiple Chinese military vehicles crossing the median line in the Taiwan Strait - considered to be the de-facto border between Taiwan and China.

The Taiwanese Defence Ministry said to have spotted in the 24 hours before December 8 at 6am, local time, 26 Chinese military aircraft and 10 Chinese Navy ships.

Of the aeroplanes, a total of 15 crossed the median line, Taiwan claimed. Some, the ministry added, even entered Taiwan's Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ).

Finally, Taiwan also reported to have spotted a Chinese balloon some 101 nautical miles southwest of Keelung, a port city near Taipei, which travelled eastward for about an hour before disappearing.

Taiwanese Defence Minister Chiu Kuo-cheng said it was his government's "initial understanding" the flying object was a "weather balloon", but decided to flag its presence anyway after, earlier this year, global concerns erupted China may be using balloons to spy on other countries.

China, which claims Taiwan as its own territory, has been increasingly stepping up military pressure on Taipei in recent months.

China's military aircraft incursions have become a regular occurrence. Notably, in September Taiwan detected 103 Chinese fighter jets flying near its territory over a 24-hour period, 40 of which entered the island's ADIZ.

These incursions, alongside extremely tense relations between the US and China, have raised fears Beijing may be nearing an invasion of Taiwan.

Beijing's likely goals are to wear down Taiwan's defence, test its own capabilities such as the co-ordination and surveillance of the Chinese force and publicly show its strength and threat.

The latest incursion came almost a month before Taiwan is to hold its presidential election, with Beijing's Taiwan Affairs Office being accused by Taiwan of "blatant" interference.

He said: "They are doing all sorts of things to interfere in our election and we can expect more leading up to our polling date."

Taiwan's Vice President Lai Ching-te and his running mate, Hsiao Bi-khim, both members of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party, are currently leading in the polls.

China perceives these politicians as separatists and has already rejected Mr Lai's calls to initiate talks.

The main political opponents running against Mr Lai and Mr Hsiao support closer ties with China.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...2705b4af&ei=13

[Jimbuna]