US Politics Thread 2016-2020

[JU_88]

Double post - sorry mods!

[Onkel Neal]

Originally Posted by vienna

In 2016, the GOP had the Clown Car. In 2020, it will be the DEMs with the Clown Car. However, a few points need to be considered that make the 2020 situation for the DEMs different than the 2016 GOP situation...



The DEM primary process is very different. The DEMs have a proportional system for their primaries: the candidates get a share of the delegates at the National Convention based on the percentage of the votes, in each state; if a candidate gets 25% of a state's primary votes, they get 25% of the delegates; if they get 47% of the votes, they get 47% of the delegates. Gaming the primaries is a non-issue under the proportional system...

Don' forget the biggest difference: the DNC actually picks the winner in the end. they rig their process. Jus ask Bernie.

[JU_88]

Poor old Bernie, first he got stitched up by Clinton and co, and now he is getting stitched up by inter sectional identity politics (which he did dabble with until he realized it was a fatal mistake).
Hes too fringe for the old Skool Dems, Too old, white and male for many of the new ones.

[vienna]

Originally Posted by Onkel Neal

Don' forget the biggest difference: the DNC actually picks the winner in the end. they rig their process. Jus ask Bernie.

The big difference for the GOP is the 'winner-takes-all'; that system is ridiculously easy to 'game' and, for the GOP, usually has resulted in the RNC pet candidate getting the nomination. What happened in 2016 was the GOP leadership didn't think Trump was a viable threat to be dealt with; desperately needing to keep the more 'wingnut' segments of the party in line, they gave Trump a long leash and he came back to bite him. Remember, even against a very poor candidate like Hillary, Trump got beat in the popular election by some 3 million votes. It was mainly due to Clinton also not taking Trump as a serious threat that also cause her not to campaign in several of the 'swing' states, losing her the Electoral College. Trump wasn't the best candidate in 2016, and, as events have unfolded since, he has not gained at all as a candidate; there's also the case to be made that whoever the DEMs run in 2020, the DEM Party will not allow their candidate to make the same mistakes(s) Clinton made...

AS for Bernie, I kinda think he's had his day in the sun. There's still nearly two years to go till the 2020 election and I have a feeling he, along with not a few of the DEM hopefuls/possibles being handicapped in the press at this time, will be less of an influence than they are now; and the incessant GOP baiting of a 'socialist/liberal' swing to the DEMs could also backfire on them and cause the DEM Party to field a more centrist candidate more appealing to the wider voter population. This also goes back to Mapuc's inquiries: if the DEMs do run a candidate with wider appeal, would the RNC counter by a mutiny against Trump and field their own more center candidate in Trump's place?...








<O>

[JU_88]

Originally Posted by vienna

and the incessant GOP baiting of a 'socialist/liberal' swing to the DEMs could also backfire on them and cause the DEM Party to field a more centrist candidate more appealing to the wider voter population.
<O>

Quite plausible - but the question is, who?
Ill just add that 'half term' presidency cycles seem to be pretty rare the past few decades, Bush Sr being the last one.

[u crank]

Originally Posted by vienna

...would the RNC counter by a mutiny against Trump and field their own more center candidate in Trump's place?...

I'm gonna say no for a number of reasons but the main one is Trump's base which hasn't gone south yet and probably won't. According to an NBC News–Wall Street Journal poll released Sunday Trump enjoys an 88 percent approval rating among Republicans. There is a lot of bad news in that poll for Trump but going against that kind of base support would be suicide for the party.

and the incessant GOP baiting of a 'socialist/liberal' swing to the DEMs could also backfire on them and cause the DEM Party to field a more centrist candidate more appealing to the wider voter population

And of course the Dems have their own problems. A war is brewing between the moderates and the new hard lefties. The hard left/progressive wing of the party had to take it on the chin once when the DNC anointed their preferred candidate. Hard to say how they would react this time but I don't think it will be good. I hope CNN and MSNBC are up to the challenge.

[vienna]

Originally Posted by u crank

I'm gonna say no for a number of reasons but the main one is Trump's base which hasn't gone south yet and probably won't. According to an NBC News–Wall Street Journal poll released Sunday Trump enjoys an 88 percent approval rating among Republicans. There is a lot of bad news in that poll for Trump but going against that kind of base support would be suicide for the party.


...

That's going on the assumption the base will hold. Nixon also had a firm base and polled well among GOP voters up until Watergate made Nixon untenable to the Party and his base and support dissolved; the fallout was such that Ford, who other than pardoning Nixon, really didn't have a whole lot of negatives, did not enjoy any of the benefits of the then GOP 'base'. If Trump is impeached or resigns, and if he pardons himself or if Pence pardons Trump, there might be an equivalent defection as with Nixon/Ford...

Also, the core base, those who are not voting GOP because they don't like a DEM candidate or just because they habitually vote for whoever the GOP runs, is only about roughly 32%-34% of the total registered electorate and it's kinda hard to win with only about a third of the vote...

There is also recent history to consider: the midterms saw the GOP take a real slap to the face when they lost the House and saw a very large number of areas they thought were secure become nail-biting races; and that reversal came only two years into Trump's terrm; such a situation usually only occurs in the second term midterms when the voters have six years to develop any distaste for and administration and its party; could they also suffer from such defections of support in 2020? And the House races are very significant in that they are 'closer to the ground' in terms of measuring voter sentiment; for the DEMs to take back about 10% of the total House seats in 2016 seems to indicate the natives are restless and unhappy...

If the GOP has to field an alternative candidate, who would it be? Maybe someone I find to be viable as someone not a wingnut, but not so centrist as to alienate the Far Righter, yet with an image of stability that may appeal to Independents like myself: Paul Ryan leaps to mind. Depending on who eventually ends up driving the DEM clown car, I could see myself voting for him...

Originally Posted by u crank

...

And of course the Dems have their own problems. A war is brewing between the moderates and the new hard lefties. The hard left/progressive wing of the party had to take it on the chin once when the DNC anointed their preferred candidate. Hard to say how they would react this time but I don't think it will be good. I hope CNN and MSNBC are up to the challenge.

I think too much is being made of the DEM Left; they make the most noise, and get a lot of the media attention, but do they really hold as much sway as the GOP wants voters to believe? The DEM Left was just as active and visible in 2016, but in the end they were all "sound and fury, signifying nothing". The DEMs knew a Bernie wouldn't be palatable to a broad spectrum of voters and scuttled him; a wise move. I think, as with the GOP 2016 'clown car', a lot of the less acceptable DEM candidates wil be weeded out; Bernie is a non-starter (age and the stigma of a 'loser') and a lot of the others will either dropout once they realize the DEM voters don't give a rat's about their running or they will just not have enough resources to sustain a full run. The key element is the large possibility of a dark horse getting the nod, much in the way Obama got his nomination...

Once Super Tuesday is over the vision will be clearer. Now all we really have is a lot of chatter and smoke and mirrors. Things and people worried about with such fervor now may turn out to be "sound and fury, signifying nothing"...









(Shakespeare quotes: just tryin' ta give a lil' cultcha and class to the thread and us mugs... )









<O>

[u crank]

Originally Posted by vienna

I think too much is being made of the DEM Left;

Possibly. But it isn't the stated position of the candidate that matters here. It may be the necessity to defend certain hard left positions by moderate (or so that they claim to be) candidates that will be a problem. Failure to do so could be an issue . The Democratic party has to appeal to an ever increasing broad base of special interest groups. The GOP doesn't have that problem.

The Democratic party has a clear path to victory in 2020. Trump's numbers right now do not suggest his reelection but then there are the incredibly stupid things that the Dems do. And they just keep doing them. Their increasingly extreme position on abortion is one. A large part of their base is African American and Latino. That is evangelical Christian or Roman Catholic and they are usually opposed to abortion or at least the extreme measures passed by some states recently. That will leave Democratic Presidential candidates possibly having to defend those positions and risk offending those voters. Most polls show about 60 percent of Americans support abortion in the first trimester. But the numbers drop off significantly for second and third term abortions. Just 28 and 13 percent. And you can bet that Trump and the GOP candidates will remind voters of that and who voted how on that issue.

Then there is the recent antisemitism debacle going on right now. Pretty awkward to say the least. Nancy Pelosi and some Dem Presidential candidates have actually defended Rep. Ilhan Omar's comments about Israel. It's going to be hard to keep up the claim that Trump is somehow a white supremacist and at the same time defend this woman's blatant antisemitic comments. Jews have traditionally supported the Dems. It wont matter much in California or New York but in a swing state like Florida.....

Another problem will be the final Dem ticket and the growing demand for diversity. There is no way that two white guys can be on that ticket without offending an increasingly diverse Dem base. So then the inter sectional shuffling of chairs will begin. Race and gender, a Democrat minefield. Someone is gonna be triggered.

And then there is the Trump investigations and possibly impeachment. In my humble opinion this is a dangerous road to go down. A diverse ticket with a moderate and appealing presidential candidate would easily beat Trump. But I don't see a Barrack Obama on that declared list. Instead the ridiculous amount of congressional investigations suggest (possibly suggest) that the DNC thinks Trump can win. The wise thing to do would be to let it go and concentrate on winning an election with policy and an appeal to a broad base. And finding a candidate who can do that. That other path, if it fails will play right into Trump's wheelhouse.

[Mr Quatro]

https://www.thewrap.com/donald-trump...s-impeachment/

Will Donald Trump complete a full term as POTUS?
Yes -275 (4/11)
No +180 (9/5)

***Note: Must be President for full term (4 years) in office for ‘Yes’ to be graded a win. If deceased during incumbency, wagers are graded a push.

https://www.aol.com/article/news/201...dent/21873044/

The latest line is: "Will Donald Trump complete a full term as POTUS? Yes: -105, No: -130

That means, if you placed a $105 bet on Trump to remain in the White House, you'll only earn back $100. If it's the other way around (10/13), and you wager $130, you'd take home $100.

[August]

Originally Posted by JU_88

Quite plausible - but the question is, who?

My guess is it will be Biden with Harris as a running mate.

[Obltn Strand]

How about Donald "the God Emperor" Trump vs. Dwayne "the Rock" Johnson

[Platapus]

I think Biden is a good guy, but I am not sure he is the best candidate to beat Trump. Just being the incumbent gives Trump a considerable advantage. Elected Presidents tend, with few exceptions to be re-elected to a second term.

[August]

Originally Posted by Platapus

I think Biden is a good guy, but I am not sure he is the best candidate to beat Trump. Just being the incumbent gives Trump a considerable advantage. Elected Presidents tend, with few exceptions to be re-elected to a second term.

Very true but in this case a sizable part of Trumps victory was that it was against Clinton, a person loathed by millions for decades. Biden on the other hand, while he has a reputation as a doofus is not so hated.

IMO Biden's big weakness will be his temper. I think he can be chivied into saying something that will sink himself.

[Platapus]

Originally Posted by August

Very true but in this case a sizable part of Trumps victory was that it was against Clinton, a person loathed by millions for decades. .

I can certainly agree with that.

Putting Hillary will rank up (down?) there with the decision to run Palin as VP. Makes you wonder "what were they thinking???

[Mr Quatro]

Originally Posted by August

Very true but in this case a sizable part of Trumps victory was that it was against Clinton, a person loathed by millions for decades.

True August, but it is just now coming to light on why the right hates the left and why the right came out to vote for Trump in 2016.

The Supreme Court nominees will make a difference for decades to come and even if the Democrats retake the WH they can't control our nation at the Supreme Court level anymore.

This new wave of late term baby killers won't overturn Roe vs Wade. Women will always have that right to terminate their babies, but when and how will be a Supreme Court issue soon and very soon.