Strike on North Korea

[Delgard]

So long as KJU is leading, it will not be conventional. On day one, NK infiltrators will release gas at sea ports, air ports, military bases and military facilities that support the fight or support the arrival of U.S. supplies/troops. The chemicals will be persistent in that they won't dissipate very quickly.

If any targets are not hit, due to defenses, missiles will be used to hit the target.

This all being against South Korea. But, what if the "fight" is just against the U.S., then the issue changes. North Korea knows that an offensive attack on SK is not really beneficial.

The danger is more likely to be Guam with a nuke, if they can do it. That will tell everyone in the region, China, Russia, Japan, and SK that they WILL do the same if attacked. The target being an isolated U.S. base does not affect any other country.

The reason I say Guam is that it is an isolated U.S. military facility. Our bases in Japan are a consideration next. A small warhead with an airburst would lessen the fallout, but still have the EMP effect.

I assume that the Japanese, South Koreans, and Americans are working feverishly to develop ways to stop the various types of missiles that NK has.

Just thinking. I don't think KJU will play war nicely. I wouldn't.

Finally, I am off to play CW.

[Oberon]

Originally Posted by mapuc

Wonder how I shall explain this.

I truly hope all this will end in a diplomatically agreement.

Should it however turn into a war I would if the war stay conventional throughout the whole conflict not be worried.

I know USA would as far as possible try to avoid civilians.

When it comes to NK I fear they will start sending lots and lots of shells towards the Capital of SK. or even worse, when they are pressed up in a corner and see no other way than sending what they have of ICBM and other missiles against SK, JP, USA and Guam.

It would be over in about 2-3 weeks if stay conventional or less than that. If it turn into something more terrible thing the war will be very short.

Markus

The DPRK has no interest in letting the US stomp it into the dirt by playing to the Americans strength. They will go special weapons first, because if they sit around and wait, their weapons will be picked off one by one until there's nothing left for them to use and their one ace is gone.
No, I can see two battle tactics for them to use.

1) They launch a nuclear strike on US and South Korean airfields across South Korea, Japan and Guam. Ports are also hit but the primary targets are airfields. There is the risk of Seoul getting hit as well, especially as the ROK would likely start shooting across the DMZ as the Scuds come in, so the DPRK will fire back.
The DPRK will then remind the US that it still has an ICBM capability, and if the US does not accept their offer of an immediate ceasefire and negotiated settlement of the conflict then they will launch their ICBMs against the American mainland. The US will then have to take the decision to risk the nuclear destruction of its cities or to honour its commitments to Japan and South Korea. The classic 'Paris for Washington' dilemma which inspired Charles De Gaulle to develop Frances own nuclear deterrent.

2) They go all in straight off the bat. ICBMs and all. The rapid breakdown of order in such a scenario means that it would be difficult to bring the war to a close, particularly as all efforts will be being made to kill Kim Jong-un, who is best placed to end any North Korean military actions (see the film 'By Dawns Early Light' for why decapitation strikes on the enemy military in war-time can extend a war rather than end it). This may result in the US having to slog its way to Pyongyang, and perhaps onward to the Yalu providing China does not get involved. The final death toll will be very high*.

I don't think we're there yet. I think there's more escalation to go before war becomes likely. The next missile test will give us an idea of their plans, it will, by my guesswork, either be Juche-bird (a live nuclear warhead detonation in international Pacific waters) or the Guam mission (a non-nuclear bracketing of Guam), or potentially the prelude to Guam which would entail a salvo firing of Hwasong-12s on a similar trajectory to the last test.

We'll see. With both sides committed to escalation though, at some point a war becomes extremely likely unless one side backs down, but I think it would cost too much face for either side to do this. So that's fun.



*And the award for understatement of the year for 2017 goes to this sentence.

[Mr Quatro]

Originally Posted by Platapus

From https://www.reuters.com/article/us-n...-idUSKCN1C026A

Concerning our bomber flights

“That operation was conducted in international airspace, over international waters, so we have the right to fly, sail and operate where legally permissible around the globe,” Pentagon spokesman Colonel Robert Manning said on Monday.

So I guess then North Korea operating/testing in international air/sea space is OK. Right?

So that means that NK can send a diesel submarine to the Gulf of Mexico and refuel it with a NK freighter visiting Cuba that is really a submarine tender in disguise ... come on man

[Rockstar]

The idea of firing a nuclear tipped warhead over another sovereign nation does raise some concerns or at least it should. But probably wont because it isn't happening to anyone one of us.

[Rockstar]

Originally Posted by Oberon

The DPRK has no interest in letting the US stomp it into the dirt by playing to the Americans strength. They will go special weapons first, because if they sit around and wait, their weapons will be picked off one by one until there's nothing left for them to use and their one ace is gone.
No, I can see two battle tactics for them to use.

1) They launch a nuclear strike on US and South Korean airfields across South Korea, Japan and Guam. Ports are also hit but the primary targets are airfields. There is the risk of Seoul getting hit as well, especially as the ROK would likely start shooting across the DMZ as the Scuds come in, so the DPRK will fire back.
The DPRK will then remind the US that it still has an ICBM capability, and if the US does not accept their offer of an immediate ceasefire and negotiated settlement of the conflict then they will launch their ICBMs against the American mainland. The US will then have to take the decision to risk the nuclear destruction of its cities or to honour its commitments to Japan and South Korea. The classic 'Paris for Washington' dilemma which inspired Charles De Gaulle to develop Frances own nuclear deterrent.

2) They go all in straight off the bat. ICBMs and all. The rapid breakdown of order in such a scenario means that it would be difficult to bring the war to a close, particularly as all efforts will be being made to kill Kim Jong-un, who is best placed to end any North Korean military actions (see the film 'By Dawns Early Light' for why decapitation strikes on the enemy military in war-time can extend a war rather than end it). This may result in the US having to slog its way to Pyongyang, and perhaps onward to the Yalu providing China does not get involved. The final death toll will be very high*.

I don't think we're there yet. I think there's more escalation to go before war becomes likely. The next missile test will give us an idea of their plans, it will, by my guesswork, either be Juche-bird (a live nuclear warhead detonation in international Pacific waters) or the Guam mission (a non-nuclear bracketing of Guam), or potentially the prelude to Guam which would entail a salvo firing of Hwasong-12s on a similar trajectory to the last test.

We'll see. With both sides committed to escalation though, at some point a war becomes extremely likely unless one side backs down, but I think it would cost too much face for either side to do this. So that's fun.



*And the award for understatement of the year for 2017 goes to this sentence.

That's one heckuva imagination you have there

[Oberon]

Originally Posted by Rockstar

That's one heckuva imagination you have there

What would you do if you were Kim? Let the US smash you into the dirt?

Originally Posted by Mr Quatro

So that means that NK can send a diesel submarine to the Gulf of Mexico and refuel it with a NK freighter visiting Cuba that is really a submarine tender in disguise ... come on man

There's no law against it, they could even send their SSB.

You could bet that it wouldn't be alone though.

[Jimbuna]

I think one could also predict it would be a one-way suicide mission.

[Delgard]

For NK infiltrators. But that is an acceptable cost for their mental conditioning. They will do their job.

Ammo, bombs, military equipment just can't be flown in. Ports will be contaminated also.

[Mr Quatro]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

I think one could also predict it would be a one-way suicide mission.

The leader of NK is their god ... they would die for him which is why we should be more concerned (which I'm sure we are) about sleeper cells inside the USA that could cause a huge problem if they so desired.

Found this interesting information on ABC this morning: http://abcnews.go.com/International/...lanes-50096380

Moon Seong Mook, a former South Korean military official and current senior analyst for the Seoul-based Korea Research Institute for National Strategy, said it's highly unlikely North Korea has the real-world capability to match Ri's words. North Korea's aging MiG fighters won't stance a chance against much more powerful U.S. fighters escorting long-range bombers. And while North Korea touted in May that it's ready to deploy new surface-to-air missiles that analysts say could potentially hit targets as far as 150 kilometers (93 miles) away, it's questionable how much of a threat the unproven system could pose to U.S. aircraft operating far off the country's coast, Moon said.

It's also unclear whether North Korea would be able to even see the advanced U.S. warplanes when they come. South Korea's National Intelligence Service told lawmakers in a closed-door briefing on Tuesday that the North's inadequate radar systems failed to detect the B-1B bombers as they flew east of North Korea.

[Oberon]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

I think one could also predict it would be a one-way suicide mission.

Yup, the whole North Korean strategy is basically taking as many with them as they can. If you know you're going to die, then you have nothing to lose.
In regards to the North Korean populace, there's only so much we can truly know, but I think that it wouldn't be a bad idea to at least make a comparison to the Japanese of World War II, in particular how they viewed the American attackers.
Recall the Battle of Saipan:



I would wager that similar propaganda, if not worse, is at play in North Korea.

[mapuc]

I have, through my taxes, helped NK in their effort to develop Nukes, ICBM and so on.

Background story-The Danish Government decide some years ago to build a new warship. The Ship yard who got the order was Danish who used a polish Ship yard.

Now a in turned out that this Ship yard have used NK slave worker.

From a Danish Article about this subject.

(Used translate)

North Korean forced workers have helped build the Danish armed Forces newest warship, new documents are revealing. Thus, Danish tax crowns have gone to the North Korean regime.

The Danish Navy's latest inspection vessel, Lauge Koch, to be put into service in December this year, is partly built on a Polish shipyard that has used North Korean workers. And according to contracts, receipts and eyewitnesses, the North Koreans have participated in the construction of the Danish ship.

North Korean workers abroad are an important source of hard currency to develop the North Korean nuclear and missile program, says the South Korean ambassador in Denmark, Jai-chul Choi

If Danish taxpayer's money is spent on nuclear and missile programs, then it's catastrophic.

The total price of the ship Lauge Koch is over half a billion, and the Armed Forces have hired the Danish Karstensen Shipyard to build the ship.
Karstensen has assigned a part of the construction of the shipyard Crist in Poland, where labor is cheaper. Crist has hired a Polish subcontractor who has used North Korean workers, employed via the company Rungrado. The state-owned North Korean Rungrado is now hit by sanctions, partly because of illegal trafficking in missile technology."

So some of us have without our knowledge helped or may be helping the regime in NK

Markus

[Platapus]

Originally Posted by mapuc

It would be over in about 2-3 weeks if stay conventional or less than that. If it turn into something more terrible thing the war will be very short.

Markus

The war will be over in a few weeks. Now where have I heard that before?

[blackswan40]

Billy Bragg said it best in this song
Help Save the Youth of America

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Platapus

The war will be over in a few weeks. Now where have I heard that before?

I'm not expert in military history

I wrote it with my mind on what have been written here on subsim, and other places like the news article.

I have from all this got following input

Thou longer it goes on thou more likely China will get involved.

It's not in USA's interest to wipe NK from the map-Only to stop or cripple its nuclear program and to decrease its military possibility to strike back

Therefore keep it so short as possible and destroy as much as possible with conventional weapon in a short time as possible.

Today I read in an article some military expert said- A war between NK and USA could give/cost about 20.000 dead each day and 90 % of these will be North Koreans (military and civilians)

He said the chances for at war is 50-50 % and a nuclear war is about
10 %.

Markus

[eddie]

Don't worry Oberon, our Commander-in-Chief will handle North Korea without a problem! I mean, what could go wrong!?!