UK Politics Thread

[Catfish]

^^ yes looks like May is set for a "hard" brexit.
"Theresa May is ready to turn the UK into a low-tax, low-regulation haven after Brexit, her spokesperson confirmed today."
From all we are able to read over here it seems that May wants England to become a tax haven, instead of cranking on production.

Also here:
http://www.businessinsider.de/theres...17-1?r=UK&IR=T

Funny enough it is not the EU that kicks out England from the single market, but May now does it herself. Of course this is what the brexit is all about. Providing a tax haven for business means they will not pay much taxes, but where does the money for social services and maintenance come from then.. demand high taxes on foreign products? Serious price rises in England would be a direct consequence

^ Worker’s rights, such as paid holiday and maternity leave were also protected by the EU, could be eroded on withdrawing if big business has its say.

[Oberon]

Originally Posted by Catfish

^ Worker’s rights, such as paid holiday and maternity leave were also protected by the EU, could be eroded on withdrawing if big business has its say.

I'd be tempted to put money on it, but I think it would be better to put it under the mattress...

[Skybird]

A clear cut - if that is not what Brexit means: what does it mean then? Either you're in, or you're out. Seen this way, May is close to the matter, and honest.

German press still reacts with quite some angry arrogance, still angry for the British daring to put the wonderful and phantastic EU into doubt and not wanting to give up self-responsibility and sovereignty, but to even demand it back from foreign bureaucratic offices.

There are only two armies in the EU that are indeed war-capable and war-willing any time: France and - Britain. Also, these are the only two armies that have nuclear deterrances. Militarily, I see Britain as Europe's lead nation. Not France. Not Germany. Its Britain. We should not forget this in a time when Russia has opened a new kind of war against Europe, and Trump indicates that he expects the Europeans to take care for themselves.

I stick to what I predicted months ago: the Brexit, once reality, will see troubles and disadvantages for Britons in the short and medium term, but I see good chances for improvements beyond the current status quo in the long run. But that will need unconventional measures that will be hated by the EU (serves them right). And these measures are the more likely to be taken the cleaner the cut is. Therefore, I welcome May's position, if her speech is telling the truth about what she thinks.

Let nobody conclude by this post that I think it will become easy for Britain. It will not. But it has my sympathy, and my support, for I think the basic decision is the right one. I wish Germany would do the same and show the EU the middle finger. But this is hyper-morally socialist Germany, this is the GDR 2.0, so my wish will forever remain a fantasy only.

If May puts her trust into Trump'S promise for a quick trade deal, Trump is Trump and thus an completely unpredictable variable. Its dangerous to hold any expectations regarding Trump. And one thing is clear: if NATO wants to keep US power in its favour, than Europe will need to accept quite some disadvantageous deals with deal-maker Trump. Lesson from this to be learned for Britain is that Trump will not care for "special relations", if he sees no good deal for America in it. For him, America (and himself) goes first. Even if that means it is at the cost of Britain. May should never forget that.

P.S. Often ignored or overlooked: if May installs a new low tax regime as it was threatened recently, this will mean a confrontation with the G20 and the WTO as well, where Britain is member, and both organisations have certain expectations on avoiding dumping taxes. I cannot assess however to what degree these are legally binding, or just are a non-binding "code-of-gentlemen" (politics - gentlemen...?). Both organisations could become sideshows in Britain's clash with the EU (I think of the coming negotiations as a clash indeed).

[Catfish]

May only tries to threaten to get the best out of this brexit, that most and especially the younger people obviously did not want, maybe not even May. But she is now in charge, and has to do what the people seem to demand of her. As some say it would be better to deliver instead of campaigning.

And Skybird what the hell is so bad about the EU that England "has to leave"?
This is so ridiculous, are those 50 percent just bored by so much decades of prospering and peace?

Really i ask you, what is so [insert term of abuse here] bad that you throw away decades of treaties, and advantages gained by negotiating hard and long, to throw it all away now?
Securing the borders? The UK?? Centuries of colonial past, with millions of people moving to and from England, and now because of half a single digit percent of immigrants who cannot even cross the channel to get there? Get real, the immigration is almost over.

I still wait for the ruin of the european occident by means of "islam" and those baaaad foreigners. Islaaam lmao, are you any bader off than say two or three years ago, now? Did you have to sell your Mercedes, did Islaaam steal it? Or could it be it is your own decisison or fault you don't have one?
Did they take away your villa in the Toscana?

Envy? Patriotism? Yeah right. You can reason as much as you want, following your Cassandra crys we should be dead since at least ten years.

It was good as long it lasted, before racist demagogues like Nigel Farage became socially respected.
If Europe goes down it is because of those people, because of Berlusconi, LePen and those other all-the-rage nationalists in Poland, Hungary and Romania.

If England decides to lower its taxes to threaten others it can take a look at Ireland lowering their taxes back then with exactly this intention, and what England and the EU had to do to bail them out. People forget quickly.
Whatever happens, the rest of Europe can now say farewell to a small and angry island, and we will see how it turns out. I would not bet my money on the EU failing, the future is in international science and trade, and not isolation and nationalism, and cannon boat diplomacy.

And if we fall back into that we deserve no better, and can die out without anyone shedding a tear about it.

[/rant]

[STEED]

I'm not that interested what the PM said as that is always for the benefit of the party and media. Heard it all before in the past over this and that from former PM's and party's, as the old saying goes the proof is in the pudding. I will watch and see how this unfolds.

[MGR1]

That I agree with and I think many up here will of a like mind.

Anyway, latest from Holyrood - Scottish Labour and Green Party vote with the SNP in a bid to save Scotland's place within the single market: LINK. Scottish Conservatives and Lib-Dems vote against. 86 for, 36 against thus a clear majority for the pro-EU side.

Since the vote is a majority of MSP's it represents the opinion of the Scottish Parliament, not the SNP. I'd say that the Tories will expect this and have countermeasures in place.

Mike.

[MGR1]

Oops, nearly forgot this bit - Northern Ireland.

Who wants to lay odds that because free movement has to be maintained between NI and the Republic (Good Friday Agreement etc, etc) that there will be border controls between the Province and the rest of the UK?

I can see the UUP and especially the DUP being unhappy about that.

Mike.

[Oberon]

Norn Iron will need a leadership first. They seem to have accidentally broken it.


And I have to ask, primarily of Skybird, but also of others of the same mind. There's been a lot of talk about Russia and Putin trying to enforce his will upon Europe and the West, for what gains remains to be seen. Surely the dissolution of the EU, which is still a real risk if the coming elections see the likes of Le Pen and Wilders get majorities, will leave Europe in a much weaker position and open for Russia interference and exploitation?
The EU isn't perfect, it's a bureaucratic nightmare, but it is an organisation which bands together western and part of eastern Europe in both economy and defence. Now, we can't always count on NATO any more, not since the Yanks went and elected a man-child for President. We basically have to write America out of the picture for European defence affairs for the foreseeable future. Which means that Europe must project its own defence or be seen as ripe for exploitation by outside powers. The EU is the perfect vehicle for this, and I can't see how its destruction can bring any good to Europe in the short and even in the long term. There's no point Europe going back to the days of the early 20th century, each individual nation building up its own seperate economy and military, because we're all pathetic weaklings in comparison to America, Russia and China, heck, even India! Any one of those nations could kick Germany, France or Britain around the field like a football and there'd be nothing they could do about it. However, together, in a union, the European Union is one of the most powerful entities in the world. Economically, Militarily and Technologically there are few other nations that can challenge us. And we want to just throw that all away.
When you look at the demographics of the people that voted for Brexit, well...you see a clear trend towards Remain the younger the people are. It seems that people voted based on nostalgia, or a belief that Britain is stronger than it really is. I mean, sure, we do have a good hand to play, but we're playing it in a terrible game.
A couple of paragraphs ago I made a jibe at the Americans for electing a manchild...but their troubles will only last eight years maximum...Britains troubles are going to last a lot longer.

[Skybird]

No EU is better than a weak or too centralised planned-economy-EU. Just look at it. See how it erodes more and more, and how more and more people abandone it. It looses "hearts and minds", faster than I hoped it could be possible.

And more of that should be a plan for strong resistence ot Putin's Russia? China'S rolling economy challenges?

You have manouvered yourself into a corner there. And now you wonder what to do if you have no walls that cover your back. I say: get out of that damn corner which you never have allowed to manouver into in the first.

Of course, other factors increase these negative effects, namely the arrogance of the elites which more and more realise themselves as well how helpless and clueless they are in reality, and the ever growing debts and the inflation of paper money. It takes a fool to believe we have low inflation only, it takes a fool to beleieve there is low inflation if year for year an additional trillion of paper dollars and almost as much in additional paper Euros get added to the money pool. The mere fact that these things happen IS inflation. Its effects just hides in other aspects of the economic events. Negtive effects, of course.

Take away all that cultural paternalism of the EU, leave all that socialist spending frenzy out, leave peopel and states alone, return to what the EU of the 6 originally has been. More is not needed. More does not contain Russia or China or Erdoghanistan. Just an aid for economic cooperation - without replacing economic and financial competition. The Euro has made that impossible, thats why it is such a monstrous problem. Innovation cannot be planned by "elites". Planned economies never have functioned, and never will. Creativity needs freedom. Regulations can suffocate all this. There is too much regulation, way too much. Too different economies need different currencies to balance these differences.

And last but not least: if you endlessly continue with the horror show the EU now is, people will turn away at ever growing speed.

As I see it, with the end of 2016 the EU has to realise that it is not just in a crisis that needs to be "managed". It is in a desperate struggle for survival, and since I cannot see it that the elites are chnaging their petrified self-gloriousness, I full-heartly welcome this.

This EU can only deepen its weaknesses and internal problems. How that could be mistaken for a string EU able to compete with China and Russia, is beyond me.

And then, there are strong developements for growing totaliariansim and centrlaism and princple socialism in the EU. I will never accept any of these voluntarily. if this needs to allow even the breaking out of armed conflicts to destroy these developements, then so be it. "Democracy [which in modern time is nothing else but ochlocracy, means: socialism] is when two wolves and a lamb have a vote on whats up for lunch. Freedom it is when the lamb contest the vote and arms itself up the teeth."

I explained this many times. Why do you guys think people like me will change ourselves if only you ask the same questions again and again, every time as if it were the first time ever you ask it? Same question triggers same answer, as long as nothing fundamentally changes meanwhile.

This is more comparing to a broken record. Marx & Keynes and their Planned-Economy-Big Band playing evergreens from the past 100 years of socialist disasters. Well, my musical taste is way different.

[Catfish]

^ The sky is falling!


"No EU is better than [...]"

Than what? Than national "patriotic" leaders cooking their own soup trying to hold their own people under their thumb ignoring international standards, workers rights, trade, to be better off than their neighbours? Like in the first half of the last century?


"And more of that should be a plan for strong resistence ot Putin's Russia? China's rolling economy challenges?"

China's economy is already on the brink of breaking down. Maybe there will even be a war about resources in the south China sea at some point.
Resistance against Putin?
Where do you see invasion plans? I take it that armament industry needs him to tear money from their respective governments, but i square don't see any invasion plans, not in the baltic nor in Poland, and especially not with Russia's faltering economy. What i see is child's play and willy-waving by all, and the NATO is indeed becoming obsolete by the way it acts and reacts.

Do you remember the "Petersburger Dialog"? This has been so undermined and destroyed in fear of a serious european trade with Russia, that it had to be abandoned through transatlantic pressure, the US fearing their own precious sales waning in Europe with Russia becoming a serious trading partner.
There's always the hate, fear and patriotic card being played, why tf don't we just sit down with them and do trade if it is about peace and economy?
It is not of course, but this is not the fault of the EU. The fault of the EU is to let itself being led by the nose by their transatlantic 'partners'.

Do you really feel threatened by Russia, personally or nationally? Invasion of Germany? Does Poland fear that, really? Isn't it more like the good old nationalist card being played with Kaczinky and the National right party?


The arrogance of the elites, well you have me there. Trump meant a slap in the face for the self-contented conservatives, or the democrat's political correctness gone wild, and i could almost love him for that.
Only that he also belongs to the elite, he just acts like an elephant in a porcelain store and has obviously fun doing.
Those who were for brexit were not the "elite", if you do not count Farage to that. But the new brexit leaders do, with May at the helm. Those are not educated ordinary people, they are elite caste again caring for themselves first and foremost.

I could argue that the EU is not elitist at all, indeed all idiots that national governments want to get rid off, are being sent there

But the EU is socialist? Have you somehow inherited the american virus of National socialism= socialism=democracy and the moon is being made of green cheese? All you don't like is "left", from spiders to earth quakes?
And the EU "cultural paternalism" is not so bad when it comes to human rights as a requirement to become a member, by certain standards to be held up by all members, by reasonable loans, by affordable health care, by criticism against dictators, by helping each other in case of crisis, sharing science projects, students exchange, by sharing intelligence information internationally against terrorists and. so. on.

You think you can have that all without treaties and without being a member in an international community? Wash me but don't make me wet?

Yes, the EU is by far not perfect. But it is better than all we had before.
Oh, and the sky will not fall. See you here in ten years once more.

[Jimbuna]

Some truly great posts here, both detailed and accurate (depending on what side of the fence you're standing) but allow me in the most simplistic terms to explain how I see it.

Britain had a referendum and that went approximately 52% to 48% in favour of leaving.

Using the broadest of brush strokes I believe the two major factors in the vote outcome were the requirements of the British population to retake control of their borders and to have the age old right to create and be governed by their own laws.

There are more than ample examples of media involvement and hype out there regarding hard, soft or whatever kind of Brexit we will witness.

My main concern is the potential 'punishment' often made reference to toward the UK when she (as the PM has recently admitted ) leaves the Single Market. The threat of added tariffs/financial penalties etc.

The UK imports more from the EU than she exports and should said tariffs be imposed, a mirrored response would no doubt be the immediate result/consequence and I can't see BMW or Mercedes car workers (as an example) warming to Merkel for allowing this to happen. You could of course site a great many industries to the same test.

I truly believe that common sense will prevail in the end because neither side will benefit as a result and in addition, would only serve as further proof to those larger economic players in the world (Russia, China, America) just how poorly prepared western Europe are to defend themselves economically and possibly even militarily.

The UK has steadfastly maintained that her wish is to remain in close contact both economically and militarily with her friends and allies in Europe but that does not include membership of the union.

[MGR1]

Originally Posted by Oberon

Norn Iron will need a leadership first. They seem to have accidentally broken it.

Mainly due to the corruption and stupidity of the DUP's current leadership. Now that NI Secretary Brokenshire's called another election it's back to square one - barring a miracle for the SDLP and the Ulster Unionists, Sinn Fein and the Democratic Unionists will still be the two largest parties after any vote. Even though Brokenshire's said that NI's devolution settlement is the best way forward for the province there's still the prospect of a prolongued period of direct rule until SF and the DUP compromise. It depends on how long the leadership of the two parties can bear to be separated from the financial gravy train of Stormont.

Moving back to Scotland, there is a possibility that if the SNP's budget doesn't get through Holyrood it would also bring down the current devolved administration in Edinburgh. This would then trigger elections in Scotland too. Unlike NI, our lot do seem to be able to compromise, so it doesn't look too likely. At least for now.

Mike.

[Oberon]

Originally Posted by Catfish

Yes, the EU is by far not perfect. But it is better than all we had before.

Agreed, although it perhaps would have been better staying as the EEC.
Yes, the EU does need a major restructuring, and reorganisation. I think the original plan was for some kind of United States of Europe but there's been a bit too much top down management.
What also hasn't helped has been the sheer amount of complete rubbish that has been propagated by anti-EU groups over the years which the public has latched on to. For example, people in the UK might cite to you the whole banana issue, that the EU has made a law about how bendy a banana can be.
The truth is more complicated than the Daily Express would have you believe and is actually designed to improve the quality of banana that the general public receives.
http://www.europarl.org.uk/en/media/...dybananas.html

Take a look at some of the hyperbole cited in this Guardian article:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics...ams-to-condoms

And the sheer amount of times the Daily Express comes up in this link:
http://www.europarl.org.uk/en/media/euromyths.html

There has been wave upon wave of negative press about the EU, in this country at least, for decades and it has poisoned the mindset of people I think.

Still, we made our bed and now we'll have to sleep in it I guess. Not that the amount of people in the nation in favour of a hard Brexit is particularly high.

[STEED]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

I truly believe that common sense will prevail in the end

I agree jim, there is far too much BS on the Internet and media put around by who ever is standing on the stay in and leave the EU. I keep telling people politicians are a right royal pain in the backside but don't get whipped up by the BS on the Internet and mass media which is making them focus on that. Stuff that and get your focus on your MP and government of the day.



Moving on to PMQ's

I have noticed old JC can deliver a blow but he always fluffs up his follow up allowing PM May to rally from his blow and come out punching all the way resulting in a knock out every week. JC is weak bloody minded numskull that just can not see he and his loony lot have wrecked the Labour party.

[STEED]

David Cameron and George Osborne cash in with big-money Davos visit
The former prime minister and chancellor are understood to be charging fees "in the high five figures" for private speeches.

http://news.sky.com/story/david-came...visit-10732792

A leopard may be able to change its spots but a pig only goes on to be a fat cat pig.