Strike on North Korea

[Platapus]

Originally Posted by eddie

North Korea hasn't shown that they have developed a nose cone on their missiles that can stand the heat of reentry. Till then, their warheads won't survive the reentry phase.

That is one of many aspects of weaponizing nuclear weapons that North Korea has not demonstrated the ability of having.

There are many very difficult steps between going from having a nuclear device to having a nuclear weapon that can be use on a rocket.

[Jimbuna]

The POTUS is 'tweeting' again.

President Donald Trump says the US military is "locked and loaded" to deal with North Korea, ramping up the rhetorical brinkmanship.
"Military solutions are now fully in place, locked and loaded, should North Korea act unwisely. Hopefully Kim Jong-un will find another path!" he tweeted.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-40901746

[Mr Quatro]

Some of you don't understand the oriental mind ... Fat boy Kim has promised to send four (4) long range missiles towards Guam (a US protected territory) with 7,000 military men and women stationed there.

He has even stated when they are going to do this, sometime during the middle of August. They fully intend to do what they say they are going to do.

For NK to back down now would be a loss of face ... they think the world will be on there side due to it's claim that they are just testing for the day that NK would be able to do the same thing with nuclear tipped missiles launched against the USA proper.

Trump has not spoken ill-rationally ... he fully intends to respond to NK threat and destroy NK ability to launch anymore missiles using EMP bombs with B-1, B-2 and B-52 bombers and 100's of tomahawks fired from surface and submarine launched subs and ships.

No nukes will be used unless Kim does get one off, which I doubt any electronics needed to complete that process will still be available. That leaves a ground war with South Korea in his war path.

I hope he gives in or gives up, but I don't think he will until he is dead. Surely a large sum of money offered to do him in would work better than letting him rant and rave at our side anymore.

The war drums are beating like they were between UK and Argentina.

I'm watching all of this happen just like y'all from my arm chair

[Jimbuna]

An article dating back to 2013 regarding NK's EMP capability.

https://www.extremetech.com/extreme/...orth-korea-emp

[Rockstar]

I wonder how much of this, as Skybird says 'thunderstorm of words' we hear everyday is infiltrating the DPRK? Is this thundestorm meant to encourage a coup d etat?

[ikalugin]

https://missilethreat.csis.org/missile-defense-2020/
I think people need to reread this.

[eddie]

Originally Posted by Platapus

That is one of many aspects of weaponizing nuclear weapons that North Korea has not demonstrated the ability of having.

There are many very difficult steps between going from having a nuclear device to having a nuclear weapon that can be use on a rocket.

Oh I agree with that! I can't imagine what is involved in putting a warhead on a missile. Including the safe guards needed to keep the warhead from exploding prematurely! The sudden jolt from the ignition of the rockets could set it off. Would serve him right if it exploded right on the launch pad!

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Platapus

Today marks the 72nd anniversary of an event that could be considered the start of this whole Korean mess.

I have a half facetious hypothesis that if there is a messed up place in the world, if you delve into its history you will find a British guy, a map, and a pencil arbitrarily drawing a border. In many cases it has proven true.

But the event of 10 Aug 1945 refutes that hypothesis slightly. In this case it was not a Brit, but two Americans with a pencil and a map .... of Korea.

The following is an abbreviated synopsis of what happened.

As WWII was ending the Soviet Union and the Americans were in agreement about what was going to happen with Korea. Neither Japan nor China would get it, nor would it be left alone to be gobbled up by either. There was no way the Soviet Union would allow the US to control all of Korea and there was no way that the Americans would allow the Soviet Union to control all of Korea, so it was tentatively agreed that the two nations would split Korea into two areas with the good guys on one side and the bad guys on the other side. But where the actual division would be was TBD.

On 10 Aug 45 two US army officers Dean Rusk and Charles Bonesteel were ordered to designate the division. There was little expectation that the Soviets would accept this so it was just an initial negotiating point.

Neither Rusk nor Bonesteel had any experience with Korea and its culture or history, nor did they consult any Korean experts or anyone from Korea. They did know that they wanted Seoul to be in the South portion.

So they took an old National Geographic map of Korea and roughly measured out two somewhat equal size portions of land. This incidentally fell on the 38th parallel. which matched a previous agreement concerning the disposition of Soviet forces.

Since Korea is more a NW/SE oriented country, they slanted their division line SW/NE.

They did not consider geography, population nor culture in this division. It was just a line for initial negotiations.

It came as a surprise when the Soviets accepted this division line. The US really expected a dispute.

Unknown to Rusk and Bonesteel, The Russian Empire in 1905 had negotiated with Japan about dividing Korea and independently came up with a similar division of a slanted line around the 38th parallel.

So this spur of the moment initial draft suddenly became a fact.

Korea was divided, but hardly equally. While the general land masses were similar, the geography was very different. North Korea had most of the mountains and the minerals and the South had the most of the arable fields.

The south had approximately twice the population of the North. But the majority of the Japanese nuclear weapon program facilities were in the North and that was a very attractive prize for the Soviets.

So two guys just drew a line on a map with no real research on what they were doing or what the effect might be was a big starter in this North/South Korean issue. What could possibly go wrong?

I might have to modify my hypothesis to read a foreigner with a map and a pencil making arbitrary borders.

The attempt to draw parallels to the splitting of ethnic groups by line-drawing in the ME, and by forcing together ideoliogy camps that do noit match, does not work here. You did not had that in case of the split of Germany, and you did not have that in Korea. What separates the South and the North, as it separated the East and the West of Germany, was not ethnciity, nor religion, but political ideology of those in power, and the dramatic differences in economic policies resulting from that. It were the Northkorean regime being responsible for the short supplies and lacking food that spelled esaster repeatedly.

I know it from first hand that the ethnic argument does not work that well inc ase of Korea becasue I once had tweo friends from soiuthkorea, who studied Germanistik in Germany. When we had one of the many histoir and poltical discussions at long nights around the kitchen table, they often were asked to tell about Korea, and they saw no reason why not to do so.

The major difference in both Koreas that decides everything else beyond, is not differfent tirbal cultures or ethncities or relgions, but - polticla dieology by the governments. Communism versus Capitalism. It was like this in Germany as well.

Of course it also became a proxy war between the major powers, too.

Interesting sidenote: until today, there is no peace treaty in place. Officially, formally, both Koreas still are at war with each other.

[Aktungbby]

Originally Posted by Platapus

There are many very difficult steps between going from having a nuclear device to having a nuclear weapon that can be use on a rocket.

http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2017/07/north-korea-missile-tests-170706081545433.html

[Skybird]

Yesterday media reports popped up that internally the US seems to assume that Northkorea already has functional nuclear missile warheads.

If true, then its already game over for the West anyway. As predicted, I would not be surprised. You do not launch a war against a nuclear power. Los Angeles is of much higher value than Pyöngyang.

I strongly assume that the show is over. Inm the future however, things will become much less instabile and predictable now. This event - nuclear armament if NK - should have never been allowed to happen. But the West is a childish kindergarten mistaking well-meant hopes with valid strategies. The big show of the future will the American-Chinese collision. And then America will pay the price for its shyness regarding Korea. Going into Iraq was so much more important...

[ikalugin]

The reports discuss DPRK having ~60 deliverable warheads?

If true, then its already game over for the West anyway. As predicted, I would not be surprised. You do not launch a war against a nuclear power. Los Angeles is of much higher value than Pyöngyang.

Depends on the US capability to conduct a valid first strike on said nuclear power.

[Catfish]

The longer the non-NK rest of the world waits... i wonder what China thinks about all that.

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Catfish

The longer the non-NK rest of the world waits... i wonder what China thinks about all that.

China? Is digging sand, building beach castles - while US generals are busy with not getting fired for "anti-feminist resistance" against lowering the performance statistics of combat units with females in them. We must have completely lost our marbels. The data that van Creveld laid out in his book that I referred to last weeks, holds some devastating messages.

[mapuc]

This is what I'm convinced of

If and when USA attack NK whether it's a preemptive strike or due to NK making real of the threats and send these 4 missiles/ICBM towards Guam

The President or some other in charge will draw a red line and see to its military:

This is a restricted area-No attacking are allowed, unless you are being attacked by some SAM or a SAM have locked onto you and you are only allowed to engage enemy fighter craft AFTER having made 110 % positive ID that it is a NK fighter Jet.

I would have done this, take every step to prevent a bomb, missile or other thing, which could by some mistake could hit and explode in China and kill innocent Chinese people.

As the President I know as long the war with NK goes, the chances for China getting involved increase, therefore it's important they don't get involved from start.

Markus

[Skybird]

I fear you are very unrealistic there, mapuc. Thats not how things get done.

Nor does it win you wars. You cannot expect to fight and surive, even win, if you have your hands bound on your back. And China - would not have been impressed.

Declare the combat zone (all of North Korea, surrounding waters, military approach lanes and travel routes for your logistics). Give neutrals some hours time to get out, then declare everything moving inside that area a valid target. You do not be picky in what SAMs to take out and what not, this is no basketball, a win 86:83 is not good enough: you want a 100: nil, if possible: for every basket the enemy scores, your buddies pay in life and blood for. 86 SAMs taken out but 83 attack fighters lost? With modern military numbers, not even the US can afford such loss ratios. You instead kill every defence you find - preferably BEFORE it gets a shot off at your buddies. Different to normal wars where you first take out air defence and then go after ground forces, you must simultaneously go after the nuclear armed weapon options of Korea from first hour on as well, so that they cannot get a single shot off. That is extremely difficult, and will likely cause own losses, with air defences still intact mostly. But what do they have those stealth airplanes for. And if China mucks up, you have to throw them a fist into the face the very first moment they show up, so that they get the message that they will start to loose own cities if they start to defend North Korea by n culear exchange. Brutality is the only way here. I do not think the Chinese will risk nuclear exchange with the US over North Korea. They are ambitious, but also rational. Not only Los Angeles is more worth than Pyöngyang: Hongkong and Shenzhen and Suhai are more valuable and costly to lose than Pyöngyang, too.

All this ^will not happen. The US have not even close the needed ammount of military capacities in the region around North Korea currently, and we see no American manouvering to bring massive reinforcements in. The carrier the Donald send some weeks ago, already is back in port again, I read. Just 6 B1's alone at Guam cannot win a war. You need the better part of the Pacific fleet if you want to do a sustained, ongoing offensive and also want to minimise the North's ability to pay back against South Korea as much as you can prevent it. Its about logistics, and stockpiles of smart ammo.

Once again the Donals speaks with thunder and fury. I only wonder whether he indeed speaks to Kim, as is claimed, or to his fanpool in the US who needs to be entertained.