Malaysian Airlines MH317

[Torplexed]

Originally Posted by August

That is my wish as well but I fear that the the truth has been obfuscated to the point that I doubt any of it will ever be settled.

JFK, blown away, what else do I have to say?

Yeah, conspiracy theories will always linger even on those rare occasions when you have ironclad proof, because there is always a eager built-in audience for the 'alternative' narrative.

Originally Posted by Oberon

Ah yes, the Su-25 space shuttle...glad to see that one has been given the boot.

I was waiting for the heavily edited Wikipedia article that stated they could dock with the ISS in a pinch.

[CCIP]

And a more skeptical view of the leak (provided by a few Russian opposition gives in the past few days): after months of spin and selling conspiracies, it's likely that the Russian military has realized that with the evidence that it as a Buk at hand, the official EU/Malaysian investigation of the crash was going to release a damning report soon. The leak was likely intentional, to pre-empt official reports and fall back to the next line of defense, retreating from "it wasn't a Buk" to being a jump start in the argument over "whose Buk". It's likely that you'll be seeing a lot of "investigative reporting" from Russian sources trying to establish that the missile was launched from Ukrainian-controlled territory.

On the other hand, one thing this report does seem to point to is that the Russian military must not have had any actual operational control over whoever launched the missile, if they need to commission an internal investigation to figure out what it even was. Considering how sophisticated Russia's air defense forces are, it would be very difficult for one of their units to go rogue and start shooting at airliners, particularly by mistake. The PVO would be very well-aware of everything in that airspace.

[NeonSamurai]

Originally Posted by CCIP

I'm not overly familiar with that weapons system, but the originating location makes absolutely no sense to me. The damage is on the opposite side of the plane to the proposed launch location, as to get a damage pattern like that the only point of detonation that makes sense would be to the low front left of the plane (from the pilot's perspective). As just about all ATA/ATG missiles follow a lead (or pure) pursuit course, wouldn't the missile have to have come from the opposite direction to be able to detonate in that location?

[CCIP]

From what I understand that missile is designed to arrive exactly in that way, from the 3/9 o'clock position and slightly above the target. The warhead is set up in a way that most of the explosive force (and shrapnel) is released in a sort of ring pattern, expanding sideways relative to the missile's flight path rather than forward or in a "ball". It's basically intended for kills on maneuvering targets (which will try to defeat the missile by putting it on the beam and pulling high G's), and also to focus the blast and shrapnel in a much smaller area, so it is essentially supposed to "slice" through just part of the target with a lot of fairly small but very high-energy fragments, rather than try to fill it (or the sky in front of it) with shrapnel at lower density and energy. It looks like it did exactly what it was meant to - and that's actually the main reason they conclusively identified the warhead. It was slightly off the 90-degree axis, so rather than going through the fuselage, the "ring" of shrapnel sliced through the cockpit and hit the engine on its way it.

[Mr Quatro]

I don't think God is into shooting down passenger planes to prove His point of don't mess with Israel, but there is a point to be made that the God of Israel was not to pleased with Hamas terror cell groups getting there training in Malaysia.

Hamas terrorists received training in Malaysia and Gaza to infiltrate Israel by air to kidnap and murder Israelis

In 2010, the prisoner was enlisted into a special force sent to Malaysia for parachute training, in preparation for a cross-border kidnapping attack on Israel. He and ten other terrorists from across Gaza spent a week receiving training in Malaysia.
After returning to Gaza, the cell was given additional weapons training. They were warned to maintain secrecy, and not to reveal details of their Malaysian training to anyone

https://www.idfblog.com/blog/2014/07...ning-malaysia/

Yes the article was written the end of July last year, but is just now chronicling the actual truth that Hamas is training in Malaysia.

What if MH-370 was an act of God and a sign to leave Israel alone?

I know it sounds strange, but God has a way of getting his message across to His followers and His enemies.

[Jeff-Groves]

[Torplexed]

Originally Posted by Mr Quatro

I know it sounds strange, but God has a way of getting his message across to His followers and His enemies.

By allowing large numbers of innocent Dutch citizens to die apparently.

[NeonSamurai]

Originally Posted by CCIP

From what I understand that missile is designed to arrive exactly in that way, from the 3/9 o'clock position and slightly above the target. The warhead is set up in a way that most of the explosive force (and shrapnel) is released in a sort of ring pattern, expanding sideways relative to the missile's flight path rather than forward or in a "ball". It's basically intended for kills on maneuvering targets (which will try to defeat the missile by putting it on the beam and pulling high G's), and also to focus the blast and shrapnel in a much smaller area, so it is essentially supposed to "slice" through just part of the target with a lot of fairly small but very high-energy fragments, rather than try to fill it (or the sky in front of it) with shrapnel at lower density and energy. It looks like it did exactly what it was meant to - and that's actually the main reason they conclusively identified the warhead. It was slightly off the 90-degree axis, so rather than going through the fuselage, the "ring" of shrapnel sliced through the cockpit and hit the engine on its way it.

It still doesn't make sense though. Due to momentum, the shrapnel ring would travel outward and forwards from the missile. So to get that kind of fragmentation pattern, the missile would have had to been coming in from the front and to the port side of the plane, yet the launch location from that information claims the launcher was the on the starboard side. Which would mean the missile would have had to fly ahead of the target, then turned to intercept head on (a launch profile that makes absolutely no sense for a SAM or AAM missile, as head on is the hardest kind of missile shot to connect with due to relative velocity, plus it would waste a lot of the missile's kinetic energy with all those turns).

I think what is most telling is the semi circle cut into the cockpit, along with the damage to the tail (it is all forwards and on one side), plus the main body and entire starbord side was not damaged. There is no way you could get that fragmentation pattern from a missile coming in from 3 o'clock. A more logical launch point is from a cone about centered on 11 o'clock. Also from digging around for info about the SA-11's warhead. Also in addition to the ring shape, there would also be fragmentation from the head of the missile in the shape of a shotgun blast (but not very powerful, as it is not purpose built to project shrapnel forward). I drew in green what I think would be the likely angle of detonation. The lines represent a very rough direction of travel of the fragments.



I'm not sure though if the missile detonated above, center, or below. It could not have been too high or low though, or you would expect to see some fragments hitting the wing on the other side.

This article also talks about the type of fragmentation found and the missile(s) in question.
http://www.whathappenedtoflightmh17....hot-down-mh17/

A problem though, is that the missile could have been either a BUK-M1 (SA-11) or a BUK-M1-2 (SA-17), as both use the same warhead with the same type of fragments, but one is only in use by Russia (the BUK-M1-2), where as the BUK-M1 is used by both Russia and the Ukraine.

[Betonov]

There's a word miss in missile (Falcon 4 manual), joke aside, missiles are made to detonate near the target, not by impacting.

The missile could have arrived from the right hand side of the plane, had a trajectory that intercepted in the front of the plane, armed itself somewhere near the nose and detonated on the left hand side like in the picture because even a split second means a few metres to a missiles speed.

[NeonSamurai]

No it couldn't have. I am not talking about the missile itself impacting, I am talking about the shrapnel pattern on the plane, and where the missile must have been relative to the plane for the shrapnel to hit the plane in that pattern.

The fragmentation pattern of this missile is ultimately cone shaped, kind of looking like a bullseye from the front with an outer ring of ballistic fragments, and an inner cone of missile bits, and follows along the missiles plane of movement. The reason for this is that the Missile's momentum is added to the momentum generated by the warhead (in this case blasting outwards sideways). Most SAM's tend to be flying at supersonic speeds when they detonate, which carries the shrapnel forward along the path of the missile.

Most modern AAMs and SAMs are designed to detonate before reaching the aircraft because of all this stuff, as the chances of taking down a plane once it has passed is almost nil, as shrapnel does not fly backwards very well when projected from a supersonic missile. You also do not want a wide fragmentation ring because otherwise you risk the cone going around the plane.

P.S. I've been flying Falcon 4.0 on and off since it was released in 1998 (and Falcon 3.0 before it). I remember that quote

[Catfish]

Several german pilots were informed and able to see the wreck pieces, they agreed that it most probably has been bullet fire. There is a regular pattern along with typical 'inbent' metal marks.

german:
https://www.freitag.de/autoren/hans-...g-abgeschossen

english link:
http://www.anderweltonline.com/wisse...alaysian-mh17/

" ... Wenige Sekunden später begann dann der direkte Beschuss von rechts hinten, der den Flügel streifte, die vordere Sektion – und hier vor allem das Cockpit – traf und die Piloten sofort tötete. Wie jetzt durch die Untersuchung der Wrackteile belegt ist, fand dieser Beschuss statt mit der zweiläufigen 30-mm-Kanone einer SU 25, Typ GSch-302 /AO-17A, aus einer Entfernung von etwa 500 Metern. Obwohl die Piloten bereits tot waren, ist die B 777 nicht sofort abgestürzt, sondern mit niedriger Geschwindigkeit steuerlos in einer Sinkflugkurve weitergeflogen. Daraufhin erfolgte ein zweiter Anflug der SU 25 und Beschuss der vorderen Sektion von der anderen Seite.
Dieser zweite direkte Angriff führte zum Auseinanderbrechen der Struktur. Das Cockpit und Teile der vorderen Sektion fielen der Schwerkraft folgend nahezu senkrecht zu Boden, während der mittlere und hintere Teil mit dem Flügel erst in etwa 25 Kilometer Entfernung auf dem Boden aufschlug. Um die volle Grausamkeit dieses Massenmordes zu illustrieren stelle ich hier fest, dass die Mehrzahl der Passagiere mit höchster Wahrscheinlichkeit den gesamten Vorgang bei vollem Bewusstsein miterleben mussten. Seit einigen Monaten liegt der Augenzeugenbericht eines Bodenmitarbeiters der ukrainischen Luftwaffe vor, der den Piloten der SU 25 nach der Landung als völlig verstört beschreibt. Er hat gestammelt, dass „es das falsche Flugzeug war“. Dazu später mehr. ..."

Another part:

" ...Entry And Exit holes from bullets in the area of the Cockpit. This is not speculation, but analysis of clear facts: the cockpit
shows clear evidence of bullet holes. You can see the entry holes and some exit points. The edges of the bullet holes are bent inwards,
these are much smaller and round in shape. A 30mm calibre. The exit holes are less well formed and the edges are torn outwards.
Furthermore it is visible that the exit holes have torn the double aluminium skin and bent them outwards. That is to say, splinters from
inside the cockpit blew through the outside of the cabin. The open rivets have also been bent outwards….There is only one conclusion one can make, and that is that the aircraft was not hit by a missile. The damage to the aircraft is exclusively in the cockpit area….

Another investigation has found the 30mm bullets that are usually carried by Suchoj Su 25 jets, a type the ukrainian air force is equipped with.

Very interesting is also this:
http://www.anderweltonline.com/wisse...und-kein-ende/

Other US investigations say they have identified shrapnels to belong to a Buk missile. They have said this a day after the shotdown, though. Not much evidence then. Now they say it again.

In december, 2014, an ukrainian pilot (a Mr. Woloschin) admitted that he fired his MG "in error". Another said "...it was the wrong jet"



The possibility that the passenger jet has been shot down to discredit Russia, is as possible as the contrary opinion.

I meanwhile refuse to believe any of this propaganda B.

[Betonov]

@ NeonSamurai: I see, I had an image in my head that the warhead throws shrapnel in a circle outward, not forward in a cone shape.

Still, is it possible that the missile exploded in front of the nose on a rght to left path and the shrapnel ''cloud'' moved a little bit to the left until the airliner moved into it with its left wing.

[NeonSamurai]

Originally Posted by Catfish

Several german pilots were informed and able to see the wreck pieces, they agreed that it most probably has been bullet fire. There is a regular pattern along with typical 'inbent' metal marks.

The thing though is that shrapnel would produce the bent-in metal holes. Missiles used against air targets do not generally cause damage from the explosive charge (unless the missile hits the target before detonating).

This is the warhead from a BUK-M1/BUK-M1-2. You can see the shape of the shrapnel in the bottom area. On some of wreckage photographs you can clearly see holes of the same shape as this shrapnel (and almost all the holes are angular).

Plus, aircraft cannons use explosive shells, and fighter pilots are trained to shoot at the main body of an aircraft from the rear (head on gun 'snapshots' are extremely difficult) so you would expect to see damage on the body of the plane.

Originally Posted by Betonov

@ NeonSamurai: I see, I had an image in my head that the warhead throws shrapnel in a circle outward, not forward in a cone shape.

Still, is it possible that the missile exploded in front of the nose on a rght to left path and the shrapnel ''cloud'' moved a little bit to the left until the airliner moved into it with its left wing.

No not really, as the shrapnel pattern doesn't fit that which is the whole point of my initial argument, the missile could not possibly come from that direction, and have it's shrapnel hit in the pattern that it did. It is not physically possible). Also a Boeing 777 cruses at 900kmph, The 9М38 flies at Mach 3, or about 1 kilometer per second.

[Catfish]

^ yes i have seen this, too. But does it explain two separate attacks ?

and this:

[NeonSamurai]

Well that warhead contains 7600 fragments. Plus also don't forget that bits of the head of the missile will also get thrown forwards (the warhead is towards the front middle section of the missile) from the warhead detonating. So you will end up with all sorts of different patterns.

The first photo you posted looks like part of a wing or a tail section, and that fragments hit it at a shallow angle, which caused deflecting tears. The second two photos are the same piece, which would have to come from the cockpit, based on the shape of the window mounts on the top section. The cockpit btw took the brunt of the shrapnel ring at closer range. So it would look like Swiss Cheese, as it probably got hit with about 300-800 fragments. Your forth photo is the first photo you posted, just flipped upside down.

I'm not sure where on the plane that last photo is from, but if i had to guess it is probably from the cockpit (it looks like fuselage skin). If you look closely at the holes, most of them have highly angular shapes, a few are even square, which you could not get from bullet shrapnel .

As for the theory that this was caused by an aircraft cannon (say the GSh-302). You would expect to see some pretty large holes that would match with a 30mm round. Also they found fragments just like the ones from the photo in my last post inside the aircraft (and inside some of the passengers), which clearly identify which sort of missile caused the damage. They have not found any cannon shell fragments. Plus it is clearly obvious that the vast majority of the holes are much smaller than 30mm. As with this high res photo

Also check out this link if you want to see what damage looks like from different weapons systems (the 30mm example is not overly accurate as those were DU rounds fired against an armored target).

http://www.whathappenedtoflightmh17....e-downed-mh17/