Here we go again-Ukraine once again pt2

[Skybird]

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/01/11/w...cmd/index.html

(...) The latest string of Russian attacks was “very well planned,” Oleksiy Melnyk, co-director of international security programs at the Kyiv-based Razumkov Center think tank, told CNN.

The deadly strikes were preceded by flocks of drones and individual missiles along different routes,pawns sacrificed to map Ukrainian defenses and weak spots, he said.

“It is defense industry facilities that are targeted now. And though it is not officially admitted, a substantial share of these missiles reached their targets,” he said, also noting that the effectiveness of each interceptor missile fired at incoming Russian projectiles is high.

The Ukrainian air defense is working “at the edge of its capacity,” Melnyk said, often hitting more than 70% of its targets and sometimes all of them.

Stopping more missiles would require more interceptor missile batteries, which Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Wednesday his country is “sorely lacking.” Ukraine is currently unable to produce modern air defense systems with its partners, he said.

But in order to stem the tide of Russian fire, Ukraine needs to target Moscow’s batteries across the border – a tough challenge, given Kyiv’s limited access to long-range missiles or artillery systems of its own.
“Russia is learning its lessons,” Melnyk said, sending missilesto where it knew they could not be intercepted. (...)

[Jimbuna]

[Skybird]

https://www-bundesheer-at.translate...._x_tr_pto=wapp


Deeply true. The fact remains that for me regarding this war the man is by far the most potent analyst and commentator with a media presence. Not just being a professional soldier and commander, he also has a degree in history. Maybe thats why.

[Dargo]

About the war in Ukraine with Dr Matthew Ford Matthew is a research associate at the University of Sussex and associate professor at the Swedish defence University Matthew is also the co-author of the book radical war and specializes in the data saturated battlefields of the 21st century

[Jimbuna]

[Dargo]

German Aid to Ukraine
https://deaidua.org/en/

[mapuc]

What is the real truth !?-Is Russian soldier being send into a meat grinder or
what ?

I myself choose to believe this is the case, that they are send into a meat grinder, However how truthful is it ?

What about the Russian military have they lost confident in winning the war ?
(Some of my friends says that Ukraine can't win I answer with - Neither can Russia)

Markus

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by mapuc

What is the real truth !?-Is Russian soldier being send into a meat grinder or
what ?

I myself choose to believe this is the case, that they are send into a meat grinder, However how truthful is it ?

What about the Russian military have they lost confident in winning the war ?
(Some of my friends says that Ukraine can't win I answer with - Neither can Russia)

Markus

This Russian winter offensive is an inch by inch offensive, this says it all, Ukraine has dug itself in retreat to better defensive positions. With this weather (frost) you would expect a mobile offensive but that they can not organize after Bakhmut Russia is not able to muster a good army to conduct this kinda manoeuvres. In WWI and WWII German military command knew they could not win, I suspect Russian military command knows this also. But like in Germany, their leader still dreams of victory and their own survival depends on a win for them, there is no other way. If Russia had only done the defence in 2023 to build up a new big good prepared offensive in spring 2024 that they waisted by sending waves of soldiers and armour undefended to a certain destruction reports are that there are 500k Russian in Ukraine with this number they still fail and will fail in 2024.

[Skybird]

^

Same must be said about Ukraine. The offensive has stalled. A new one not in sight this year, they will most likely spend all year hunkering down. They dug themselves in, so did the Russians. They straighten the frontlines to be able to defend them. Ukraine too was not able to conduct huge formation manouvering warfare. Its written that the Ukrainian line troops have started to become quite sober about the Ukrainian chances, the early optimism has long since gone. Realistic disillusionment is spreading. Selenski has changed in the attitude he "radiates" around him, to me he looks differenbt now than one year ago, its becoming more clear when watching and listening to him that he has become somewhat less "enthusiastic, more reflective, gloomy, introvberted to some degree. He is obviously desperate to get more weapons from the West, but doesnt get them, not to mention: in the demanded quantity.

You present the Russian losses as evidence of their failure. But thats the way Sovjet doctrine works. Accept the losses - push on. The producing defence industry and the critical infrastructure of Ukraine already now is severly more degraded than it was last year at this time. Ukraine slowly gets worn out. It gets snuggled on by an anaconda. Russia chews on it like on tough gristle, but it keeps on chewing - and there is no sign at all that it will spit it out again.

Putin sees that the West has become fractured, impatient, and hesitent to pay more, and that military support is waning, and doubt is rising, so is civial oppsoition in Western states to a policy of support. He also sees that the West refuses with great determination to deliver what Ukraine would originally need to survive and be victorious in defending its territorial integrity. And he knows that there will be elections in the US, and that at least until then and probably beyond that date the US will be a non-actor on Ukraine and on support for it. I do not really believe it, but if there is a chance, even a small chance, Putin could consider his course in this war, then this will not be before the US elections and Trump not having won. And even a democratic president after the election agony (which I assume will last for months and months after the election) might be faced with a Trumpist-dominated Congress or Senate blocking him.

Some of you guys still underestimate the Russians. I have no clue how this mistake can so stubbornly persist. The Russians need not higher quality. They have what they need: higher numbers, en masse. Wring your hands, roll our eyes, but they continue showing up with them superior numbers despite your explanations that they could not - they do nevertheless. From Putin'S POV, he simply has to hang on - nothign more. He is convionced that he has the longe rbretah and cna outlast Ukraine and the West.

And with every day passing, a bit more of Ukraine's industry and infrasstructure and survivability gets destroyed. While the Russian system stays unaffected - Western leaders make sure Ukraine cannot reach it. One day maybe they will give Ukraine Taurus and stuff like that. But then like with the ATACMS: only a very low number not to spike too much anger in Russian government.

With every day, Ukraine'S survivability gets by net effect destroyed a bit more. There is more damage done every day than the Ukraine can repair or compensate. Do the math.

If we were honest, we would either throw everythign we can at Ukraione - or tell it it is on its own and better starts facing the bitter reality. What we do now - letting them bleed while pouring sweet words in their ears but not doing what is needed - , is the foulest of all actions we could show up with. We have blood on our hands this way.

Again, this essay:
https://www-bundesheer-at.translate...._x_tr_pto=wapp

The way we behave now and the way things are now, Ukraine cannot win the war and in the long run cannot even survive the war.

The good thing in that would be that then Europe must not invest hundreds of billions to rebuild it. Maintaining it would be a burden on the Russians.

And from my post here: https://www.subsim.com/radioroom/sho...postcount=2284, these paragraphs:
---------------------
In his autobiography "History of a German", Sebastian Haffner describes how, as a ten-year-old during the First World War, he eagerly awaited the final victory of the German troops - "in a dream world of the great game".

He walked to the police station every day to read the Supreme Army Command's victory announcements as a serialized novel on the notice board. "I had no idea what the end of the war would look like without a final victory."

That was to change a little later. On November 9 and 10, 1918, there are still army reports in the usual style, writes Haffner: "Enemy breakthrough attempts rebuffed."

But on November 11, there is no longer a report from the army command on the bulletin board. Haffner can't believe it: "The board yawned at me, empty and black."

In a daze, the ten-year-old drifts through the streets in the drizzle of November until he finally comes across a crowd of people in front of a newspaper kiosk. In the early edition of a newspaper, he reads the words he is not prepared for: "Ceasefire signed."
Beneath it was a long list of the conditions for this armistice, which in reality amounted to an unconditional surrender. Haffner reads, and as he reads, he freezes: "That something like this could happen to us. And not as an incident, but as the end result of nothing but victories and victories. My head couldn't grasp it. The whole world had become strange and scary to me."

Today's Germany could soon face a similar fate.
--------------------
This thread sometimes reminds me of that.

[Jimbuna]

[Jimbuna]

Britain to increase Ukraine support to £2.5bn, Rishi Sunak announces

The UK will provide £2.5bn of military aid to Ukraine over the coming year, Rishi Sunak has said - Britain's largest annual commitment since Russia's invasion.

The PM made the announcement during a rare visit to the country, where he will also sign a new agreement supporting its long-term security.

Officials said the package will provide Ukraine with long-range missiles, air defence and artillery shells.

Some £200m will be spent on drones, most of which will be UK-made.

Officials said the military package - for the next financial year beginning in April - would result in the largest delivery of drones to Ukraine by any country.

Significantly, the prime minister has decided not to make a financial commitment lasting several years.

Some ministers and senior military figures had argued privately this would send a stronger signal to Moscow of Britain's long-term support.

Instead, Mr Sunak has chosen to spend £200m more than the last two years, when the UK's annual military commitment to Ukraine was worth £2.3bn.

Downing Street said the package of support would form the first step in what it called "an unshakeable hundred-year partnership between Ukraine and the UK".

It will also include £18m for humanitarian aid, help fortifying Ukraine's energy infrastructure and more funding for online English language training.

Armed Forces Minister James Heappey told BBC Breakfast the drones will give Ukraine an advantage over the coming years.

He said: "They are drones that are being developed at pace, learning all of the lessons from what we've seen in Ukraine over the last two years."

He added the funding shows the UK is maintaining its leadership position in Europe as the second-biggest donor to Ukraine.

Mr Sunak, who last visited Ukraine 15 months ago in November 2022, said: "I am here today with one message: the UK will also not falter. We will stand with Ukraine in their darkest hours and in better times to come."

He added: "The UK is already one of Ukraine's closest partners, because we recognise their security is our security.

"Today we are going further, increasing our military aid, delivering thousands of cutting-edge drones and signing a historic new security agreement to provide Ukraine with the assurances it needs for the long term.

"For two years, Ukraine has fought with great courage to repel a brutal Russian invasion. They are still fighting, unfaltering in their determination to defend their country and defend the principles of freedom and democracy."

The UK commitment comes after months of pressure from MPs, who argued the government should have given Ukraine greater clarity much earlier so it could develop its military planning.

It also comes as both the United States and the European Union struggle to agree their own packages of support, with Ukraine in desperate need of more shells and missiles.

In the US, Republicans are blocking a $60bn (£47bn) package of support for Ukraine in an attempt to increase spending on tackling migration along America's southern border.

And in the EU, Hungary's prime minister, Viktor Orban, has blocked a €50bn (£43bn) support package for Ukraine in a funding row with Brussels.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-67954152

[mapuc]

Some input to your comments.

Nor can Russia win the war-This stalemate will continue the next couple of years. With huge losses on both side, which in the end will force one of the side to demand a ceasefire

£2.5bn Have a feeling it's far from enough.

Markus

[Jimbuna]

Only bettered by the US and in the past as far as I'm aware.

[Dargo]

The German government spent (2023) an additional 3.2 billion euros in military aid to Ukraine. In the coming years, until 2032, an additional 8.8 billion euros will be set aside for this purpose. The Netherlands now provided €2.63 billion in military support to Ukraine (as of Dec. 4, 2023). The support consists of: Direct delivery: equipment worth €1.10 billion was delivered to Ukraine from its own military stocks. For 2024, the Dutch government has set aside over €2 billion. Believe Denmark give about the same or more other Scandinavian countries are of the same level. French military aid to Ukraine, estimated at €3.2 billion Ukraine will still get its €50 billion aid package with or without the backing of Hungary from the EU. The UK aid of £2.5bn to Ukraine in 2024-2025 an increase of £200m on the previous two years while other smaller countries give this yearly.

[mapuc]

Looks like a part of the weapons who have been send to Ukraine has disappeared

The investigators in the Ministry of Defense have examined 39,139 weapons that the US has sent to the front in Ukraine since the invasion, worth around 6.8 billion kroner.

https://ekstrabladet-dk.translate.go..._x_tr_pto=wapp

https://media.defense.gov/2024/Jan/1...D%20SECURE.PDF

Markus