US Politics Thread 2016-2020

[MaDef]

Originally Posted by Oberon

Well, it's early days at the moment, the Dems are headless and trying to find a new ground to stand on torn between the Bernies and the Clinton wings. Eventually things will coalese into a more coherant strategy, but honestly I wouldn't expect a Democratic victory in 2020 unless Trump really screws things up. The comeback will be in 2024. Probably around the time that the Labour Party in the UK makes its comeback.
The Republicans also have their civil war to fight, between the Tea Party and the Neo-Con sections, but the victory in the election has postponed that war for now.

Actually, the Tea Party/ Old Guard Republican is over and the Old Guard lost, If you don't believe me, look at who the Republicans elected to President, Their influence is waning, guys like Graham, McCain, McConnel, they'll be retiring soon.

The Democrats on the other hand, have an uphill battle, they suffer from group-think, and they tend to let emotions cloud their judgement. I don't see them being able to field a viable national candidate until 2024.

[Sailor Steve]

Originally Posted by eddie

And he was on ABC this morning making wild comments about voter fraud again.

Not too long ago I saw comment on that which made me laugh: "You won! Get over it!"

[Bilge_Rat]

Originally Posted by eddie

"The end result of this, though, is that our opponents, the media, and the whole world will soon see, as we begin to take further actions, that the powers of the president to protect our country are very substantial, and will not be questioned."

well actually, he is correct as a statement of both the President's powers under the Constitution and immigration laws.

President Obama took the same position and also argued his immigration EOs were not subject to review.

And he was on ABC this morning making wild comments about voter fraud again. Problem is, he can't provide any evidence of that! I guess if you repeat it enough , it has to be true,lol

well actually according to at least one academic study between 1.2 million and 2.8 million non-citizens may have illegally voted in the 2008 election:

Taking the least conservative measure e at
least one indicator showed that the respondent voted e
yields an estimate that between 7.9% and 14.7% percent
of non-citizens voted in 2008. Since the adult noncitizen
population of the United States was roughly
19.4 million (CPS, 2011), the number of non-citizen
voters (including both uncertainty based on normally
distributed sampling error, and the various combinations
of verified and reported voting) could range from just
over 38,000 at the very minimum to nearly 2.8 million at
the maximum.

The adjusted estimate of 6.4 percent for 2008 is quite substantial,
and would be associated with 1.2 million noncitizen
votes cast in 2008 if the weighted CCES sample is
fully representative of the non-citizen population

(pp152-153)

http://www.judicialwatch.org/wp-cont...hman-et-al.pdf

There is a large potential for voter fraud under the current U.S. system and the "evidence" is there. Of course, no one on the left wants to even admit that possibility, because there would then be a push to "fix" the system.

Personally, I think the raising of the "voter fraud" issue has more to do with mobilizing the GOP base and discrediting the mainstream media in the eyse of the Base. Notice how the media goes ballistic whenever the issue is raised.

[AVGWarhawk]

Originally Posted by Bilge_Rat

Personally, I think the raising of the "voter fraud" issue has more to do with mobilizing the GOP base and discrediting the mainstream media in the eyse of the Base. Notice how the media goes ballistic whenever the issue is raised.

Of course the media goes ballistic, it is good fodder to point out Trump is losing it mentally.

[Rockin Robbins]

Originally Posted by Bilge_Rat

well actually, he is correct as a statement of both the President's powers under the Constitution and immigration laws.

President Obama took the same position and also argued his immigration EOs were not subject to review.

And President Obama's orders nullified settled and in-place laws pertaining to illegal aliens: those redefined by the press as "immigrants" who are nothing of the kind. But defining them as "immigrants" allows liberals to say "America is a nation of immigrants" and other true statements, now rendered untrue by their unilateral redefinition of the term "immigrant." There is no equivalency between the immigrants of the past and the illegal aliens of the present, any more than there is an equivalency between immigration through Ellis Island and the Normandy Invasion during World War II.

President Obama, in violation of his oath of office and constitutional duties to enforce and administrate the laws passed by Congress, unilaterally sought to void those laws, declaring that his actions were above review. I would argue that he committed an impeachable offense there, but we don't give the constitution anything but lip service any more.

President Trump, on the other hand, did not seek to invalidate any law, just to declare a 90 day moratorium on travel from seven countries officially recognized by the Obama Administration and Congress as state sponsors of terrorism, who have announced their intent of mingling terrorists with legitimate refugees, and who have successfully implemented that threat in Europe. Trump, acting in the spirit of any government's first duty: to shield its citizens from harm, merely wants to take sensible steps to ensure that we have processes in place to more solidly validate refugees as "not plants of terrorism sponsoring countries."

Same defense. Two starkly different actions and motivations. One sought to defy the courts and Congress to institute open borders without any restrictions. The other seeking to temporarily restrict travel while we get our crap in order to restore the travel process as before. The same arguments used against Trump's action could be used against airlines restricting travel due to a snowstorm.

It is impossible to attack Trump's order without admitting that Obama's were magnitudes worse, seeking permanent change of settled American law, passed by Congress and adjudicated by the courts for decades before, without any due process, by decree and in violation of Obama's oath of office and the US Constitution.

If you excuse Obama's gross application of executive orders, you must permit Trump's much lesser application of that same power.

[Skybird]

The bill for the Trump effect starts to get footed.

Two years ago, the share of foreign, non-US holders of US treasuries, was around 55 or 56%. In the past weeks since the election and again since the inauguration, the biggest debtors of America, Japan and China, have started to sell their US treasuries drastically. By now, the share of foreign non-US holders of US treasuries has dropped to I red around 45, 46% . And this although US treasuries currently offer better interests than most other state's treasuries!

The US is dramatically depending on foreing money flushing into the debt-ridden US market. If this flow of fresh capital bogs down, Trump - and America - get problems. Serious problems.

I predict when US citizens in four years wil look at the financial math of their election decison last autumn, they will either not understand why what happened - or they will stare at it in shock and awe and will not believe it.

And let nobody tell you that the stockmarket are skyrocketing and the price indices are in stellar orbit. If you seriously believe that within a couple of years the value and worth of the real economy's companies and factories, services and products has multiplied by several factors like the stock values seem to imply, than nobody can help you.

Bubble game, round - which round are we in by now? I forgot.

Market is overheated, and hopelessly so. The central banks are pushing the bubbles around the globe like they play a ball on a football field, increasing them all the time. As I see it, by now anythign can happen just any time, in ten days, ten months or ten years - predictions have become impossible. Which describes a state of maximum uncertainty and unpredictability. And that means where you act on the grounds of what you believe is your stock market strategy, you indeed gamble. You can still win great money, yes - but not by reasonable long term strategy anymore, basing on past experiences that lead to the rules you read about - but mere luck.

And this is is not even already calculating in the crisis of the debt-papermoney as a failing system.

Trump may pull his show off, but in the end there will be coming a horrendous bill, much worse than the bill presented at the end of Reagan's reign - just on a much lower total level back then. Trump will add an exponent to it - or he crashlands already in the first half of his first term.

I recommend to stop investing for profit, and start to plan under the premise of that now is the time to start saving, protecting and conserving what you already have - to save it over the crisis coming, if possible. Small losses due to inflation you probably cannot void. Risk-free options are no longer existent as well. Have reserves so you can afford losses. If you haven't, may the Force be with you.

Once the shells start falling and the ground starts shaking, there is no safe place on the battlefield anymore. Nowhere.

Maybe it is just fair and just: those who have given Trump their vote, will most likely get hit the hardest by what is about to come down on America, and us all.

[AVGWarhawk]

Originally Posted by Skybird

The bill for the Trump effect starts to get footed.

Two years ago, the share of foreign, non-US holders of US treasuries, was around 55 or 56%. In the past weeks since the election and again since the inauguration, the biggest debtors of America, Japan and China, have started to sell their US treasuries drastically. By now, the share of foreign non-US holders of US treasuries has dropped to I red around 45, 46% . And this although US treasuries currently offer better interests than most other state's treasuries!

The US is dramatically depending on foreing money flushing into the debt-ridden US market. If this flow of fresh capital bogs down, Trump - and America - get problems. Serious problems.

I predict when US citizens in four years wil look at the financial math of their election decison last autumn, they will either not understand why what happened - or they will stare at it in shock and awe and will not believe it.

And let nobody tell you that the stockmarket are skyrocketing and the price indices are in stellar orbit. If you seriously believe that within a couple of years the value and worth of the real economy's companies and factories, services and products has multiplied by several factors like the stock values seem to imply, than nobody can help you.

Bubble game, round - which round are we in by now? I forgot.

Market is overheated, and hopelessly so. The central banks are pushing the bubbles around the globe like they play a ball on a football field, increasing them all the time. As I see it, by now anythign can happen just any time, in ten days, ten months or ten years - predictions have become impossible. Which describes a state of maximum uncertainty and unpredictability. And that means where you act on the grounds of what you believe is your stock market strategy, you indeed gamble. You can still win great money, yes - but not by reasonable long term strategy anymore, basing on past experiences that lead to the rules you read about - but mere luck.

And this is is not even already calculating in the crisis of the debt-papermoney as a failing system.

Trump may pull his show off, but in the end there will be coming a horrendous bill, much worse than the bill presented at the end of Reagan's reign - just on a much lower total level back then. Trump will add an exponent to it - or he crashlands already in the first half of his first term.

I recommend to stop investing for profit, and start to plan under the premise of that now is the time to start saving, protecting and conserving what you already have - to save it over the crisis coming, if possible. Small losses due to inflation you probably cannot void. Risk-free options are no longer existent as well. Have reserves so you can afford losses. If you haven't, may the Force be with you.

Once the shells start falling and the ground starts shaking, there is no safe place on the battlefield anymore. Nowhere.

Maybe it is just fair and just: those who have given Trump their vote, will most likely get hit the hardest by what is about to come down on America, and us all.

Spoken like Deutsche Bank.

[Skybird]

The Deutsche Bank's reasoning, and my reasoning, couldn't be any more different.

Or any bank's reasoning, for that matter.

What they want, I fight against. What I want, is their worst nightmare. What I argue against, is their air to breathe.

25.000 postings. All beers on me!

[Oberon]

Originally Posted by Skybird

those who have given Trump their vote, will most likely get hit the hardest by what is about to come down on America, and us all.

It's not as if there weren't warnings, but since they came from 'experts' and 'fake news' then it doesn't matter. If and when it does happen it'll all be the fault of Liberals / Muslims / Mexicans / Illegal immigrants / Canada / Saturday Night Live [Delete as appropriate] anyway.

[AVGWarhawk]

Originally Posted by Oberon

It's not as if there weren't warnings, but since they came from 'experts' and 'fake news' then it doesn't matter. If and when it does happen it'll all be the fault of Liberals / Muslims / Mexicans / Illegal immigrants / Canada / Saturday Night Live [Delete as appropriate] anyway.

Now you're thinking straight!

[vienna]

A glimpse back in history on the subject of blind obstructionism:

http://www.politico.com/story/2010/1...-pledge-044311

Stone, glass houses, pots, kettles, etc, etc. ...



<O>

[Jimbuna]

Originally Posted by Skybird

25.000 postings. All beers on me!

You'll do for me bonny lad!!

[Oberon]

Originally Posted by MaDef

Actually, the Tea Party/ Old Guard Republican is over and the Old Guard lost, If you don't believe me, look at who the Republicans elected to President, Their influence is waning, guys like Graham, McCain, McConnel, they'll be retiring soon.

The Democrats on the other hand, have an uphill battle, they suffer from group-think, and they tend to let emotions cloud their judgement. I don't see them being able to field a viable national candidate until 2024.

Then it's a rather sad state of affairs for the party of Lincoln, if rather than 'Four Score and Seven years ago' we get 'One Hundred and Forty Characters ago."

I agree with your assessment on the Dems though, they are going to take a while to repair, so unless Trump really drives the US into the dirt, they'll not be back to contention until 2024. In the meantime I think their goal will be to try and get one of the Houses back so they can play the Obama GOP game.

[Rockin Robbins]

Originally Posted by Skybird

The bill for the Trump effect starts to get footed.

Two years ago, the share of foreign, non-US holders of US treasuries, was around 55 or 56%. In the past weeks since the election and again since the inauguration, the biggest debtors of America, Japan and China, have started to sell their US treasuries drastically. By now, the share of foreign non-US holders of US treasuries has dropped to I red around 45, 46% . And this although US treasuries currently offer better interests than most other state's treasuries!

The US is dramatically depending on foreing money flushing into the debt-ridden US market. If this flow of fresh capital bogs down, Trump - and America - get problems. Serious problems.

I predict when US citizens in four years wil look at the financial math of their election decison last autumn, they will either not understand why what happened - or they will stare at it in shock and awe and will not believe it.

And let nobody tell you that the stockmarket are skyrocketing and the price indices are in stellar orbit. If you seriously believe that within a couple of years the value and worth of the real economy's companies and factories, services and products has multiplied by several factors like the stock values seem to imply, than nobody can help you.

Bubble game, round - which round are we in by now? I forgot.

Market is overheated, and hopelessly so. The central banks are pushing the bubbles around the globe like they play a ball on a football field, increasing them all the time. As I see it, by now anythign can happen just any time, in ten days, ten months or ten years - predictions have become impossible. Which describes a state of maximum uncertainty and unpredictability. And that means where you act on the grounds of what you believe is your stock market strategy, you indeed gamble. You can still win great money, yes - but not by reasonable long term strategy anymore, basing on past experiences that lead to the rules you read about - but mere luck.

And this is is not even already calculating in the crisis of the debt-papermoney as a failing system.

Trump may pull his show off, but in the end there will be coming a horrendous bill, much worse than the bill presented at the end of Reagan's reign - just on a much lower total level back then. Trump will add an exponent to it - or he crashlands already in the first half of his first term.

I recommend to stop investing for profit, and start to plan under the premise of that now is the time to start saving, protecting and conserving what you already have - to save it over the crisis coming, if possible. Small losses due to inflation you probably cannot void. Risk-free options are no longer existent as well. Have reserves so you can afford losses. If you haven't, may the Force be with you.

Once the shells start falling and the ground starts shaking, there is no safe place on the battlefield anymore. Nowhere.

Maybe it is just fair and just: those who have given Trump their vote, will most likely get hit the hardest by what is about to come down on America, and us all.

Wow, that is just pessimism from Mars having nothing at all to do with reality. We've heard from chicken littles for ten years now and they all just stop talking about their doom and gloom after awhile.

The fact is, all our nations are coming out of a time when socialists sold them a very smelly fish: that people could be GIVEN a standard of living. In fact everything is earned and NOTHING is given. Nothing is worth more than what you pay for it. Health care given to you is worthless, as millions of Americans and others around the world are realizing. Owning a house is not a right, and being given a loan against the evidence that you are unable to afford to pay it results in nothing but losing the house and some of the things you earned before you accepted the "loan."

So the economies of the West have had to recover from the "right to home ownership," "right to free health care," scams and have narrowly escaped the "right to free higher education" scam. All that needs to be paid for before our economies can again begin to grow.

But grow they will. No nation has recovered from a blow as serious as Germany, who opened their border with the former GDR, incurring tremendous expense. But now they are realizing the benefits of their reunification. Investment and expense comes first. Benefits follow later. There is no free lunch.

The future is bright. Following Germany's example, we will pay the price of prosperity.

[Mr Quatro]

Originally Posted by Oberon

I agree with your assessment on the Dems though, they are going to take a while to repair, so unless Trump really drives the US into the dirt, they'll not be back to contention until 2024. In the meantime I think their goal will be to try and get one of the Houses back so they can play the Obama GOP game.

That's all they can do ... have you noticed that the pre-election DNC with Hillary and the after election DNC without Hillary is basically the same?

All they can do is boo hoo what Trump is doing without any alternate choices