Here we go again-Ukraine once again pt2

[Jimbuna]

[Jimbuna]

[mapuc]

Listen to what he have to say in second part of his video



Markus

[Reece]

Like WOW!! I'm shocked but quite believe it!! Selling machines to Russia for making bomb shells!!
The issues on fuel pricing/sales and sanctions is totally unbelievable, I hope things change for the better soon.

Good luck Ukraine you need it!!

[Rockstar]

Originally Posted by mapuc

Listen to what he have to say in second part of his video



Markus

How are we supplying machining tools and such to Russia? Easy, only sanctions that can really work well are the ones which have minimal or no effect on your own labor force and economy. If your company relies heavily on one customer and was suddenly told it could not sell their products, your economy suffers, people are out of a job and go homeless and hungry. Then they start rioting in the streets over government policy.

As for delays in support and countries seemingly dragging their feet. I don’t think a quick win was ever the objective. I believe the objective is to drain Russia’s economy, its ability to wage war, occupy satellite states and destroy its regional influence. Doing that will provide Ukraine greater long term security and open up central Asian states to trade without Putin getting in the way ever again.

After Biden’s and Xi’s exchange it appears Russia is no longer considered a global power and is now just a pawn.

[Reece]

Originally Posted by Rockstar

As for delays in support and countries seemingly dragging their feet. I don’t think a quick win was ever the objective. I believe the objective is to drain Russia’s economy, its ability to wage war, occupy satellite states and destroy its regional influence. Doing that will provide Ukraine greater long term security and open up central Asian states to trade without Putin getting in the way ever again.

After Biden’s and Xi’s exchange it appears Russia is no longer considered a global power and is now just a pawn.

I hope you're right Rockstar, if Ukraine looses it'll be bad for everyone, especially Europe!!

[Jimbuna]

[Jimbuna]

[Skybird]

https://www-fr-de.translate.goog/pol..._x_tr_pto=wapp

In war, big numbers have their own charmes.

Somewhere else I read that Ruassia's war has pulled ove rone million men from Russia labour force at home, due to death, serving, and fleeing from Russia.

But with their huge human ressporuces, these losses in war do not deicide it for Ukrioanwe. And Ukraine, on the other hand, by now already has very serious problems to recruit sufficient new soldiers.

Its as I predicted last year. Potential man power reserves will likely decide the war. The Russian huge losses do not mean too much. 2022 ended with a win by points for Ukraine. 2023 is a clear win for Russia. And for 2024 I see no prospects for Ukraine. They have not yet lost. But they are now clearly on the path to loosing.

[Jimbuna]

[Dargo]

You can not verify the price of oil in an oil tanker, an oil tanker is a floating storage facility on route from A to B it is resold many times before it reach destination.

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by Skybird

https://www-fr-de.translate.goog/pol..._x_tr_pto=wapp

In war, big numbers have their own charmes.

Somewhere else I read that Ruassia's war has pulled ove rone million men from Russia labour force at home, due to death, serving, and fleeing from Russia.

But with their huge human ressporuces, these losses in war do not deicide it for Ukrioanwe. And Ukraine, on the other hand, by now already has very serious problems to recruit sufficient new soldiers.

Its as I predicted last year. Potential man power reserves will likely decide the war. The Russian huge losses do not mean too much. 2022 ended with a win by points for Ukraine. 2023 is a clear win for Russia. And for 2024 I see no prospects for Ukraine. They have not yet lost. But they are now clearly on the path to loosing.

War is also economics if one million men from Russia labour force is gone it will hurt the production hugely of the all not so big work force. Russia's stock was big very big now we see shortage and its need to go to North Korea this is the same for human resources sending them without anything to survive has no use it is counterproductive you do not win battles with this tactic. Russia has no ability to create any change on the fronts for years in Ukraine, it can only hope for Trump to win the next election.

[Rockstar]

Originally Posted by Reece

I hope you're right Rockstar, if Ukraine looses it'll be bad for everyone, especially Europe!!

Like others here have said I believe Ukraine does not have the manpower for decisive breakthroughs against Russian minefields and fortifications. But then I’m pretty sure Ukraine already knew that. They do strike where they can when they can attempting to inflict as much pain as possible without risking everything. I think Ukraine forces have higher morale are better equipped and some even better trained, they have proven capable of holding the line and are, I think, patiently waiting it out as Russias economy, ability to wager war and supply its troops continue to dwindle.

Crimea is a target and according to reports becoming untenable for Russians. The Kerch bridge is still a target, Russian personnel are facing yet another winter, without any dependable supply chains, armed with 70 plus year old equipment like the d20 below without wheels, firing shells from WWII, using a tree branch for a rammer and a summer camo net in winter. What defeated Hitler at Stalingrad was the lack of fuel and supplies to his soldiers in the field, starvation and disease killed more Germans soldiers than Russian bullets and IMO it will be what defeats Putler’s army as well.

[Dargo]

Russia has sustained casualties of between 300,000 and 400,000 killed and wounded in the war in Ukraine so far, and in the heaviest fighting at Avdiivka is losing between 500 and 1,000 a day according to a briefing by western officials.

The officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, nevertheless acknowledged that Ukraine's counter offensive on the Zaporizhzhia front has essentially culminated, although "three brigades" are believed to have made it across the Dnipro river near Kherson.

"Neither side is capable of mounting a decisive operation on land," one of the officials said, and it appeared that "a prolonged conflict" was likely to follow in which long term US and European military aid would be crucial.

A significant force, described as three brigades, had established a position across the Dnipro that the Russians have proved unable to dislodge, although it was unclear, they said, how much armour the Ukrainian military had been able to get across the river.

But despite the cross-river success, the officials said they expected that Ukraine would most likely only be able to make incremental "village at a time" progress, a similar pace to summer efforts south of Orikhiv and Velyka Novosilka. https://www.theguardian.com/world/li...08d1d922ef82e8

[Skybird]

Russia must not win offensives it further mounts. It just must hang on to what it has already occupied. The defences of these have stopped the Ukrainian offensive, and the failed offensive 2023 will hardly ever be repeatable again, material-wise. With what would Ukriane do it? It will not et sucha moutn dsof materia., again, and it lacks even more recruits in the forseeable future, than there were in winter and spring this year.

Next year will be easier for Russia than this year was. This year was easier for Russia than last year. For Ukraine, it was exactly the other way around.

Its a dicatorship in Russia, not a democracy. Its easier to simply use a command top down to deal with the hardship of war. The majority of Russian people support the war, I red some weeks ago. Again: the majority of the civil Russian population was reported back then to support the war. Unbelievable, but still... There will be no revolution or uprise in Russia.

Wishful thinking leads nowhere. The support volume from the West that Ukraine would need to win the war, I do not see materialising, no matter who wins the US elections. And European nations alone will not be capable or willing to do it. We have now 21 months of experience with how the West handles the war. And these 21 months of experience are not encouraging. Wishful thinking dominates the perception and decision making. Wishful thinking will not win the war.

There is a lack of political will and determination in the West to really win the war and see Russia lose it. In fact the West is afraid of Russia loosing it. And Paris and Berlin do not want Ukraine to clearly win it.