Here we go again-Ukraine once again pt2

[Jimbuna]

[Dargo]

Russia Inflation Accelerates to 6.7%

Russia's annual inflation rate accelerated to 6.7% in October, the country's federal statistics agency said Friday, as a weak currency and surging military spending push prices higher across the economy. Rising prices have caused concern for the Kremlin and Russia's Central Bank, which has raised interest rates to 15% in a bid to battle inflation. Earlier this month, President Vladimir Putin urged his government to "reduce" inflation in a televised meeting. October's annual inflation rate of 6.7% was up from 6% in September and is the highest level since February. Russia officially targets an inflation rate of 4%.

Putin and Russian officials have hailed Russia's economic performance since it sent hundreds of thousands of troops into Ukraine last February. Economy Minister Maxim Reshetnikov said Friday that Russia's GDP will expand by 3% this year. But independent economists say high inflation is just one symptom of deeper economic problems. Last month, Russia reimposed some currency controls after the ruble fell below the symbolic level of 100 against the U.S. dollar over the summer. It has since recovered to around 92. A huge increase in spending on the conflict in Ukraine, which looks set to drag into a third year, is also limiting Russia's ability to tame rising prices.

Moscow will raise its defense spending by 70% next year to a post-Soviet record of 6% of GDP, according to an annual budget approved by lawmakers. Meanwhile, record low unemployment after hundreds of thousands of workers have been called up to the army, fled to avoid being drafted or been redirected to work in arms factories, has created labor shortages across the economy. https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/...s-to-67-a83074

NATO’s European member states spend 5.75 times as much on defence as Russia ($276bn compared to $48bn.) Not only are those alliance numbers set to rapidly increase, but they also take no account of Canada or the enormous US defence budget. Russia too is increasing spending, but its anaemic economy simply cannot compete. Comparing Russia’s economy to that of NATO countries using purchasing power parity, the ratio is a huge 1:10. Non-NATO countries — Australia, Japan, Sweden, and Finland as examples — support Ukraine as well. Additionally, Russia is heavily sanctioned and has had at least $300bn international assets frozen. The Russian economy (GDP) from Kaliningrad to Sakhalin is smaller than the Italian economy in GDP terms. Russian military salaries are lower than NATO, but combat aircraft will cost the same for Russia, Italy, or whoever buys it because technology is increasingly expensive. If an airplane costs $30m, the pilot and ground crew costs do not matter; they are marginal. For Russians with any doubt about state propaganda, it will now be obvious that the economic costs of funding a war with too little productive capacity are enormous. The undersized economy is already apparent for the soldiers on the frontline, made plain by intermittent logistics and deteriorating competitiveness on the battlefield, older equipment, and the artillery’s shell famine. Continued Russian offensives can guarantee only increased Russian casualties, beyond the 200,000 already suffered. A larger Russian army in Ukraine will only worsen the logistics crisis. There is no Russian victory in sight. https://cepa.org/article/why-russia-will-lose/

There is no way that Russia can maintain their production levels without western expertise and technology (An oil well depleted by about 6% per year if you don't keep drilling, production falls. It takes money and know-how to maintain and grow production.), the bigger risk is the failure of equipment. They may have some repair supplies available from before the war, but do they know how to install them, and what happens when they don't have the needed repair parts? Winter is coming and that will take its toll on infrastructure. They are also handicapped by chronic corruption and an appalling safety culture, it can only get worse from here. Russian oil industry collapsed in 1992 the wells froze over or collapsed and all the pipelines burst. They didn’t get back to Soviet level production until 2019! That was with nearly unlimited financial and expertise from the West. All that is gone now, and it’s going to collapse again the majority of Russian oil and gas is located in Siberia this costs Russia a fortune to extract and maintain (the most expensive in the world to get) with the state of the Ruble (1 Russian Ruble equals 0,010 Euro), selling at discount also, export ban on refined products and petroleum shortages Russia is eating itself. All you have to do is study Venezuela's decline to see Russia's future.

Ukraine's inflation has fallen to 5.3% Year-Over-Year from 7.1% in September and a high of 26.6% Year-Over-Year last December Ukraine excels in good macroeconomic management in the midst of the war.

[Dargo]

A frozen front line looms in Ukraine, but success is not measured only in ground gains

As winter approaches, the front line in Ukraine appears to be moving even less than in recent months. The hope of Ukraine and the West was precisely that considerable ground would have been gained by this time. Has the Ukrainian counteroffensive failed? Not only in the Netherlands, but also in Ukraine, the autumn has been wetter than usual. Therefore, the muddy season on the war front, instead of at the end of November, is already here. This will make it even more difficult for tanks and heavy vehicles to make progress. Without leaves on the trees, infantrymen will also find it harder to hide. With that, the dry summer and fall periods are coming to an end. Some ground gains have been made in some places, particularly on the southern front, but the hoped-for breakthrough has not materialized. A frozen situation on the front is looming. The longer the Russian army holds out, the better it can dig in, after which it becomes even more difficult to breach the defences. So has the Ukrainian offensive achieved anything?

Expectations were overblown in the spring, says Professor of Military Science at Leiden University, Frans Osinga. 'But I am less pessimistic about progress than the small ground gains suggest,' he says. 'For example, Ukraine is very successful in taking out Russian artillery and also manages to take out operational centres of Russia far behind the front.' Former Commander of the Land Forces Mart de Kruif acknowledges that the advance is slow, but sees equally positive trends. 'Ukraine still has the initiative and repeatedly forces the Russian army to move troops to put its defences in order. The front has also not yet settled down, so there is no question of a frozen front.' In recent weeks, for example, Ukraine managed to station army units on the right bank of the Dnipro River, east of the city of Kherson. Ukraine had been handing out pinpricks here for some time, but now manages to settle permanently on this bank near the village of Krynky. 'The operation is part of a larger chess game to continuously force Russia to move troops,' De Kruif said. 'The bridgehead offers some perspective of getting closer to Crimea,' Osinga stated. 'It is part of the war of attrition.' Fighting also continues on the southern front. There was some hope that Ukraine could make a breach there, especially after the army penetrated the Russian army's first line of defence around Robotyne and Verbove in September. But after this line there are more trenches and the Ukrainian army has to repeat the breakthrough each time. The hope that undermanned and exhausted Russian army would be vulnerable, and the advance would be faster did not materialize.

'Russia dug in firmly, and the many mines and barbed wire made it difficult for Ukraine to deploy heavier equipment,' Osinga said. Moreover, Ukraine lacked good air support and Russia managed to mobilize more soldiers.' 'Soon in the summer, therefore, Ukraine opted for a different tactic,' says De Kruif. 'Not with a massive attack with tanks, but by taking trench by trench with infantrymen.' Even at the front in Robotyne, the Ukrainian army is still making some progress, only it is moving very slowly, Osinga and De Kruif say. That offensive could also continue into winter. 'Especially during the night, infantrymen can try to make a breach,' says De Kruif. 'Of course, logistics become more difficult and the cold and rain make it less easy for soldiers to operate, but tanks with rubber tires are precisely made to drive through the mud.' 'Even more important than the steady progress is the gains made by the Ukrainian military at the operational level,' Osinga believes. 'Every day, Ukraine manages to take out 20 to 40 artillery pieces with modern precision weapons.' That gives Ukrainian soldiers more freedom of movement, as Russia is less able to bombard its positions. However, Russia has hefty supplies and Ukraine does not know when they will run out. Restraint in the deployment of tanks and other heavy equipment is therefore important, adds De Kruif. Even next year and in the years after, the Ukrainian army must keep that equipment available.

Whether Ukraine can sustain this war of attrition will depend on the extent to which the country succeeds in keeping up the supply of modern Western weapons. Precisely about developments on the strategic battlefield, De Kruif and Osinga are less positive. Because of the focus on Israel and the lack of successes on the front, politicians' interest in helping Ukraine with lots of weapons and money is declining. Osinga: "Viewed this way, the perception of stagnation on the front lines is to Ukraine's disadvantage. https://www.volkskrant.nl/nieuws-ach...inst~b1deae76/

[Jimbuna]

[Skybird]

https://www-dw-com.translate.goog/de..._x_tr_pto=wapp

Is the West prepared for a trench war in Ukraine?

The West is not prepared for this because the West has been glossing over the situation for 20 months and because it believes that Ukraine is able to use morale to defeat this Russian bear. It does not work like that. In my view there are two options. One is to go all-in. But four to five loaded military trains would have to travel to Ukraine every week. The other thing is to self-critically admit that it is not possible. Then you have to tell that to the Ukrainians. You may then have to start negotiations, but with the admission that Ukraine will no longer exist as a state because Russia will destroy it.

What is your forecast for 2024?

We are approaching a culmination point where the situation is on the brink and will be decided - in one direction or the other. We have multiple crises and attention to Ukraine is becoming increasingly difficult to maintain. If Ukraine does not manage to remain in the spotlight of the world and, above all, make it clear to the European side that the war for Europe may be decided in Ukraine, then things will be difficult for Ukraine. If Ukraine manages to do the opposite, then the conflict could develop in this direction. We don't know whether this is possible. We experience history in the making. That's why Saluzhny's article is so important.

[Exocet25fr]

[Catfish]

^ Are you happy in St. Petersburg?

[mapuc]

Would it come to such a situation, where Nato/US is questioning Ukraines process in the war, despite Nato's and USA promises to stay with Ukraine to the end ?

Of course not now and not the first 6-9 month next year, it's thereafter Nato/US will start to questioning the Ukrainian process at the front. I think

Markus

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by mapuc

Would it come to such a situation, where Nato/US is questioning Ukraines process in the war, despite Nato's and USA promises to stay with Ukraine to the end ?

Of course not now and not the first 6-9 month next year, it's thereafter Nato/US will start to questioning the Ukrainian process at the front. I think

Markus

When you do not send/delay the needed tools for a successful Ukraine offensive, you have nothing to demand or question do not think NATO will they know how the fighting is going and know what Russia has lost why would you question the one fighting for you when he is the only one that has weakened Russia for decades no NATO or member of it has pulled this off in the history of NATO. That said, you can not expect it to go your way wars never go your way there are always things you can not foresee all the plans you make can fail because of numerous reasons, certainly in a David vs Goliath war.

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Dargo

When you do not send/delay the needed tools for a successful Ukraine offensive, you have nothing to demand or question do not think NATO will they know how the fighting is going and know what Russia has lost why would you question the one fighting for you when he is the only one that has weakened Russia for decades no NATO or member of it has pulled this off in the history of NATO. That said, you can not expect it to go your way wars never go your way there are always things you can not foresee all the plans you make can fail because of numerous reasons, certainly in a David vs Goliath war.

I know that- Nato/US military is controlled by the politicians and they are elected by ordinary citizens.

You and I are strong supporters of Ukraine. But there are those who isn't that strong in their support and when there's no huge advancement at the front these people will start to ask whether their country should continue supporting Ukraine.

It's fear I have-As someone wrote here in this thread-Time is on Russians side

I truly hope I very much wrong.
I hope that time is in Ukrainian side and they soon will make huge advancement in some areas.

Markus

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by mapuc

I know that- Nato/US military is controlled by the politicians and they are elected by ordinary citizens.

You and I are strong supporters of Ukraine. But there are those who isn't that strong in their support and when there's no huge advancement at the front these people will start to ask whether their country should continue supporting Ukraine.

It's fear I have-As someone wrote here in this thread-Time is on Russians side

I truly hope I very much wrong.
I hope that time is in Ukrainian side and they soon will make huge advancement in some areas.

Markus

Why is Time is on Russians side? Are their vast stock they let us believe usable? No, why else would Russia ask North Korea for shells and barrels. Is Russia's economy strong enough to support a war production successful? No for various reasons Russia does not get enough for its exports they need because of sanctions Russia sell at discount imports is much worse the Ruble is so low their import cost them hugely, and they had and with this war more of a lack in work force you can say they have vast resources to dig those up you need a workforce that you just send into war this is also the case for other production. I do not think time is on Russia they can have a bigger army, but wars are not only fought on the front the bigger numbers are not always guaranty a win. For the support for Ukraine I see minority countries not wanting to support all countries that already did not support Ukraine much the general trend is we stay on this path to supporting Ukraine.

[Dargo]

The Czechia's Defence Ministry has released a list of military equipment transferred to Ukraine from the army's stocks, which was previously classified. The document, dated November 6, shows the cost of the aid - 6.2 billion Czech crowns (more than €250 million). According to the document, between February 24, 2022 and October 9, 2023, Czechia transferred:

- 4 helicopters manufactured in 2005 and 2006;
- 62 tanks from 1968, 1977, 1985-1989, 1993;
- 131 IFVs from 1973-1989, 1993, and 1999;
- 16 air defense systems from 1973-1993;
- 47 vehicles from 1977-1993, 1997;
- 13 self-propelled artillery howitzers, 1980-1986;
- 84,860 shells for cannons and gun howitzers 1986-1992, 1999-2002;
- 12 rocket systems from 1977-1985;
- 4,900 rockets for rocket launchers 2016-2019;
- 645 anti-tank guided missiles from 1988;
- 8,022 anti-vehicle launchers from 1991;
- 128 mortars from 1971-1979;
- 17,400 mines for 1992-2004 mortars;
- 4.2 million rounds of handgun ammunition;
- other equipment.

Some of the equipment was supplied from Czech warehouses, some of it was provided by arms companies. https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/11/...sian-invasion/

[Eisenwurst]

https://abcnews.go.com/blogs/headlin...care-young-boy

10 years ago? But still relevant.

[Jimbuna]

[Jimbuna]