The CHN/ China thread

[Skybird]

Oh-oh...

https://warontherocks.com/2024/04/ch...m-over-taiwan/

In view of the massive problems that Russia has caused for itself with its war against Ukraine, there was hope that China could relinquish its covetousness towards Taiwan. Xi, however, has only learned that he needs to prepare better.

The fall of Taiwan, which to me is the most likely outcome of a war (say chances are 60-40 or even worse), would be a catalyst dramatically accelerating the fall of the West. Even if Taiwan does not get conquered in full, its economy and industry would be obliterated.

So much for computer chips "made in Taiwan".

Worse it would be if the chip industry ends up in Chinese hands, more or less intact. Thats the worst case scenario. Then they would have the whole world by its balls.



Missiles, missiles, missiles to Taiwan, please. Stockpiling them in amounts so high like the Chinese wall. Not ships and tanks and planes, they all will get picked away by the Chinese, one by one. Missiles of all sorts: AT, AS, AA. Every citizen with a load of missiles in his home, so to speak. A Javelin in every cradle, a Stinger in every cab. And air defences, so tight that it borders hilariousness. The Chinese will bombard the island from a distance like crazy.

And the US better dramatically beefs up its miltary bases' air defences and ammo stores for these in the region.

[em2nought]

Jeez, I really wanted to move to Asia.

Maybe I should look at Paraguay instead, nobody seems to care to bother with them, for now anyway. There's even an interesting little colony of Swiss, Austrians, and Germans that I might fit in with. El Paraíso Verde.

https://paraiso-verde.com/en/el-para...t-of-paraguay/

Maybe I'll move to Asia, but set Paraguay up as my "Plan B" along with
"The Republic of Texas".

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by Skybird

Oh-oh...

https://warontherocks.com/2024/04/ch...m-over-taiwan/

In view of the massive problems that Russia has caused for itself with its war against Ukraine, there was hope that China could relinquish its covetousness towards Taiwan. Xi, however, has only learned that he needs to prepare better.

The fall of Taiwan, which to me is the most likely outcome of a war (say chances are 60-40 or even worse), would be a catalyst dramatically accelerating the fall of the West. Even if Taiwan does not get conquered in full, its economy and industry would be obliterated.

So much for computer chips "made in Taiwan".

Worse it would be if the chip industry ends up in Chinese hands, more or less intact. Thats the worst case scenario. Then they would have the whole world by its balls.



Missiles, missiles, missiles to Taiwan, please. Stockpiling them in amounts so high like the Chinese wall. Not ships and tanks and planes, they all will get picked away by the Chinese, one by one. Missiles of all sorts: AT, AS, AA. Every citizen with a load of missiles in his home, so to speak. A Javelin in every cradle, a Stinger in every cab. And air defences, so tight that it borders hilariousness. The Chinese will bombard the island from a distance like crazy.

And the US better dramatically beefs up its miltary bases' air defences and ammo stores for these in the region.

The invasion of Taiwan wil mainly be a naval, air operation missiles will help but will not decide the outcome. Combined warfare is the answer here make sure that Chinas' invasion force is destroyed before it reaches the beaches.

[Skybird]

No, it will begin with a barrage of missiles and drones and jamming attempts and more missiles to destroy as much of the defences as possible. Maybe with a navel blockade forgoing this, but that is not a must since it would kill the element of surprise. Aircraft will attack, too, if they get through, else: missiles.



An invasion force will start to move only when they see a chance to get enough of it onto the beach to keep their chances. Until then they will bombard Taiwan and will not stop any time soon. Obviously they will bombard with missiles, drones, cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, from air, from land, from ships. The goal is both to reduce defences and to destroy industrial capacity and critical infrastructure.



The attack will start relatively suprisingly.



Taiwan needs air intercept missile to reduce the aerial and missile bombardement, and then needs anti ship missile to reduce the invasion fleet, and then needs ground missiles and Javelin-style missiles and Stinge rmissiles (shoulderpad-style missiles) to deal with whatever makes it onto land.



The numbers are against Taiwa and its allies, if there will be any. Thats why it is not promising to invets ehaiuvl,y into expensive big targets like tanks and ships. Missiles of all sorts and ranges, and drones. But these in abundance. Lessons from Ukraine.


Xi is very well accepting to not wage a war of traditional conquest but a war of subjugation: which could very well be a war of annihilation if resistence is too stiff. And then taking the emptied island and moving conmtinatal Chinese in as settlers. Population exchange - also a form of conquest.

[Jimbuna]

Highly likely

[Dargo]

In most scenarios, the United States/Taiwan/Japan defeated a conventional amphibious invasion by China and maintained an autonomous Taiwan. However, this defense came at high cost. The United States and its allies lost dozens of ships, hundreds of aircraft, and tens of thousands of servicemembers. Taiwan saw its economy devastated. Further, the high losses damaged the U.S. global position for many years. China also lost heavily, and failure to occupy Taiwan might destabilize Chinese Communist Party rule. Victory is therefore not enough. The United States needs to strengthen deterrence immediately.

[mapuc]

My thoughts on this tension between China and USA over Taiwan.

1. Within the furesable future it's not in Chinas interest to invade Taiwan
2. It will be a direct conflict between China and USA where Taiwan is watching from the side
3. Taiwan will as in point 2 be the battleground-Not taking part.
4. The Chinese invasion will set the region on fire.

Markus

[Jimbuna]

China confronts Japanese politicians in disputed East China Sea area

BEIJING/TOKYO, April 28 (Reuters) - China's coast guard confronted Japanese lawmakers in waters claimed by both countries in the East China Sea, China's embassy in Tokyo and Japanese media said on Sunday, the latest in a series of maritime disputes involving China and its neighbours.
Chinese vessels took unspecified law enforcement measures, the embassy said in a statement, adding that it had lodged solemn representations for what it called "infringement and provocation" by Japan near tiny, uninhabited islands that Beijing calls the Diaoyu and Tokyo calls the Senkaku.

The Japanese group, including former Defense Minister Tomomi Inada, was on an inspection mission organised by the city of Ishigaki in Okinawa prefecture, according to the Chinese embassy and Japanese public broadcaster NHK.
Japan and China have repeatedly faced off around the Japan-administered islands. China also has escalating run-ins with the Philippine navy in disputed areas of the South China Sea, where Beijing's expansive maritime claims conflict with those of a number of Southeast Asia nations.

Inada's group spent three hours near the islands on Saturday, using drones to observe the area, and the Japanese coast guard vessel sought to fend off the Chinese coast guard, NHK said.
"The government and the public are aware of the severe security situation," said Inada, a senior official of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, according to NHK. "The Senkaku are our sovereign territory and we need to go ashore for research."

It was the first such inspection trip to the area involving a member of Japan's parliament since 2013, NHK reported.
Officials of Japan's foreign ministry were not immediately available for comment outside of working hours.
China strongly urged Japan to abide by what it called a consensus reached between the two countries, stop political provocations, on-site incidents and hyping up public opinion, the embassy said.

It asked Japan to "return to the right track of properly managing contradictions and differences through dialogue and consultation, so as to avoid further escalation of the situation".
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-p...ea-2024-04-28/