Strike on North Korea

[Oberon]

Originally Posted by mapuc

Then the questions will be:

1. Where will he strike first ?

Hard to say for certain, I think a lot will depend on how damaging the strike is. If it's just a single missile destroyed then he might be content with just some firing over the DMZ. If it's a decapitation attempt then you can be sure that the response will be a lot stronger. The problem with asymmetric escalation is that it starts the nuclear ball rolling at a very early stage, but it is also a greater deterrent because your opponent doesn't have many ways they can strike at you without risking immediate full nuclear retaliation.
So the options range from shells across the DMZ, to a conventional explosive warhead on Guam, right up to the Grand Tour which will come in one of two ways. Either he'll launch all but the ICBMs, hitting targets in South Korea, Japan and Guam, and then threaten the US with the ICBMs if they don't end the war now, or he'll fire everything in a use it or lose it style scenario.

2. When will he make this strike ?

Again, hard to be certain, but two scenarios come to mind. It'll either be before a US strike or after one. If North Korea figures that the US is about to start hitting its nuclear infrastructure then it may well decide to act first in order to get its punches in while it still has them. You see in the stand-off in Korea whoever goes first gets an advantage, so it's in the best interests of all the players to be the first one to fire...but there's the knowledge that when they do fire they will create a firestorm that will be hard to stop.

3. What kind of weapon will he use ?

If it doesn't escalate then it'll be conventional weaponry, but it's more likely to be nuclear, biological and chemical. So your standard nuclear fare plus 2,500 to 5,000 tons of nerve and blister agents, and then there's anthrax, VX, Smallpox, Cholera, the plague, and all other kinds of lovely stuff. All of which will be sprinkled liberally over Japan and South Korea, quite possibly over Guam, Hawaii and the US too for that matter.

If KJU decide to use nukes another question comes into my mind

What will USA response be ?

Well, it will probably start with a gravity dropped thermonuclear device over Pyongyang, and the permission for forces bombing North Korea to use nuclear 'bunker buster' weapons against hardened sites.

Will they response with Nukes ?

Very likely.

Will they increase their bombing campaign against NK using both smart and dumb bombs ?

Definitely. They will throw the whole kitchen sink at North Korea.

The key question which remains after all the missiles have flown though is 'what next?'. Will the US have to march to the Yalu in order to end the war? Will China get involved in order to prevent the US from going that far?

It could be that the opening millions of deaths are just the first casualties in a drawn out war and occupation which would last for decades.