Saudi oil fields on fire, but who did it?

[Catfish]

^ or, according to this opinion piece link, Bolton was right.

quote from above link: "[...] showed to be a bully right since Khomenei's times when it scored the first victory against the US during the hostage crisis. It then stubbornly refused to get defeated by Saddam durign the first Gulf war against Iraq. [...]"

Lol. "Stubbornly refused to be defeated" after Saddam's attack. How could they.
Poor Saddam sure did not know what happened when he did like he always had done, to suddenly become the pariah of the US. Only showed the middle east, that siding with the US is a two-sided sword.

[Jimbuna]

IMHO it was Iran.

[Jimbuna]

The United States has issued satellite images and cited intelligence to back its allegation Iran was behind attacks on major Saudi oil facilities.

One official said there were 19 points of impact on the targets and the attacks had come from a west-north-west direction - not Houthi-controlled territory in Yemen, which lies to the south-west of the Saudi oil facilities.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-49712417

The case is in the process of being built.

[ikalugin]

It is a lengthy proxy war that just got to Saudi oil industry. May be related to the return of oil related sanctions on Iran.

[Skybird]

I am not saying it was not Iran, but the impact direciton and suggested flight paths concluded form them, means nothing. Both drones and cruise missiles can be programmed to follow preset flighttracks that - if wanted - let them running circles around a location, zig-zag, or approach from right the opposite direction at where the attacker originally launched the weapons.

The impact positions are no hard evidence.

I assume it was Iran indeed.

Russia: possible, it has a motive (pushing oil prices upwards, unsettling the West, supporting its ally Iran), but its very unlikely and wopuld be a daring game even for Russia's standards: thats why I say No.

China: not really any motive of theirs, they depend on oil imports.

Turkey: has a motive (local rivalry and seeking regional dominance, unsettling Europe), but then has also motives not to escalate this tremendously and piss the US, EU: No to Turkey.

Israel: possible, but has no real motive I am aware of, and its against their sober sense of pragmatism - so why pissing the Saudis?

Egypt: no motive I am aware of, and probably also lacking the options (I do not know the Egypt military).

Iraq? They have other things on their mind, are busy with keeping floating, and probably have not the needed hardware.

Yemen? Definitely a motive - its war - , but not without foreign help: see above list of candidates.

So I assume it was Iran. They have several motives, and the skill and technological options.

The mine attacks also were not proven to have been conducted by Iran, and still I assume it was them.

Pompejo needs to learn the difference between "evidence" - and "motive" and "hint", however. Talking about evidence to the public but not revealing said evidence due to protecting secret sources, does not count.

[Skybird]

Just in: a speaker of the military coalition said in Riad that they have evidence that the weapons used in the attacks originate from Iran. Early news says nothing on whether they know who fired them: Houthi or Iranians. Is of little interest to me anyway.

If true, I think we are heading for a a retaliatory air strike against Iranian oil facilities and air defences, maybe also naval bases and vessels. The US and its geostrategic claims cannot afford to let this go by unanswered. If they want to be taken serious anymore, they must retaliate. "Empires cannot afford to not act".

[Catfish]

Iran is the most probable candidate, but retaliating is the problem. It is all quite asymmetrical. Certainly the US could destroy military installations, ships, whatever, but what hinders anyone to use drones frome wherever, for whatever purpose?

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Catfish

Iran is the most probable candidate, but retaliating is the problem. It is all quite asymmetrical. Certainly the US could destroy military installations, ships, whatever, but what hinders anyone to use drones frome wherever, for whatever purpose?

It has already been done. Same with mine attacks - it has already been done. The escalation already has been staged.

Lets show Iran that they are extremely vulnerable and have plenty of space and shorreline and oil harbours and refineries to protect, too. Plus the other civilian industry that is there. Not to mention nuclear research sites.

They got away with several attacks by now. They got away with hijacking, and lying about Syria embargo breaking. Should they also get away with a ful blown military attack, against another huge nation?

The red line has already been overstepped several times. Washington makes itself laughable if they do not react. None of their "allies" in the region who already were alienated by Obama, will believe them and trust them anymore. Which opens the door for China, and widens it for Russia.


The test of brute force is simple. Who breaks fist, looses.

[Mr Quatro]

After years of the SA military spending billions of dollars on SA defenses they sure do look soft and weak to me.

[kraznyi_oktjabr]

Originally Posted by Skybird

Yemen? Definitely a motive - its war - , but not without foreign help: see above list of candidates.

Another option is doing it like the Daesh did: use agents abroad to acquire necessary components. Minor problem is acquiring skilled personel capable of assembling and operating your new drone fleet. Major problem is how to get hard currency to pay for all that expensive stuff.


All above assuming, that Iran has nothing to do with this. If it provides solutions to "minor" and "major" problems, then there is no need to tarnish their own hands.

[Skybird]

Apparently it is not as easy as the US and SA claim to identify who fired the "things" and from where. Its not even clear beyond doubt, despite the press conference in Riad, what the "things" actually were.


https://translate.google.de/translat...a-1287091.html

[Skybird]

Technology transfer as well as the wide distrrubution of needed components and knowledge on the worl market and via internet, make it only a question of time until weapon-carrying drones will be used by criom inal cartels as well, and organised crime, for assassination, for terror, for blackmailing. And the use of self-made weapons to deceive own identity of ther attacker will allow states to increasingly strike without needing to fear that the world public will point finger at the responsible attacker.



The fun with it has only just started.



On a side note, the Patriot system once again has worked not well, as the article I linked shows. The system is being criticised and under suspicion by some experts already since the second Gulf war. It probably is "too conventional" in design and thinking/doctrine behind it.

[mapuc]

If they are going to retaliate this attack on SA soil

I would not be surprised if USA helped SA, by taking on the Iranian defense and airsupport and then let the Saudis do the bombing of well picked targets.

Markus

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by mapuc

If they are going to retaliate this attack on SA soil

I would not be surprised if USA helped SA, by taking on the Iranian defense and airsupport and then let the Saudis do the bombing of well picked targets.

Markus

I am not certain that SA has the capacities to do this.


BTW, I have my doubts that the attack in SA indeed was carried out by drones. When looking at the tanks that have those holes in them, these holes are all right in the centre of mass, the targets where hit with tremendous precision. I think it were cruise missiles of any kind.

[Mr Quatro]

Originally Posted by Skybird

I am not certain that SA has the capacities to do this.


BTW, I have my doubts that the attack in SA indeed was carried out by drones. When looking at the tanks that have those holes in them, these holes are all right in the centre of mass, the targets where hit with tremendous precision. I think it were cruise missiles of any kind.

I was thinking the same thing, plus 19 targets hit blamed on 10 drones ???