Huge pro-EU rally grips Ukraine

[Oberon]

I meant in the future, if the US retreats from Europe then there will be a void of power which Europe itself will not fill because it will be too busy attacking and bickering at each other.

I'm not trying to kick up some kind of Red Scare, although to be honest if you think that Eastern Europe and the Baltics don't suspect Russia of trying to regain its control over them...then I think you should probably talk to some more Eastern Europeans. We've already had one make his views clear in this thread. Rational or not, that is a real fear that they have and no-one is going to tell them otherwise, especially after the Ukrainian debacle.
It would be even worse if the EU and NATO fell apart, because they would see us as having abandoned them...again.

No, Skybird, I probably haven't understood what you've said, and I doubt I'm in the minority here on that, I want a Europe that will stand together, not the Europe of the 19th century which ended up in World War One and World War Two, and you can't tell me that the European Union or America was responsible for that. We've had 2000 years of bloodshed, war, destruction and famine, and I'm not exactly keen on any of them, I rather like peace, I rather like it when members of my family don't die, and I'd much rather that we didn't wind up at war with Germany...again.

[ikalugin]

Well external enemy and reasonable amounts of nationalism is about the most simple to acquire base for state building and is used commonly in the post Socialist Block space.

As to the EU - it could always arm the Eastern (and not so European) Europeans (Poland, Turkey being the two obvious choices), as they appear to be willing to militarise heavily. The issue here is that those parties are influenced heavily by the US and other external sources and thus would not always act in EU interests I think.

The other one would be to befriend Russia, and this would lift most if not all external military threats from EU area proper (as well as making Russian Navy people very happy) but this train is gone now I think.

[Oberon]

Originally Posted by ikalugin

By "bashing doors" I meant the muscle in the EU, ie a party that could execute relevant aggressive foreign policy when need be. The issue here is that the central EU members appear to be reluctant defense spending wise and would prefer not to send their servicemen I to the places of danger.

Currently this role (within the EU) could be taken by the Eastern Europeans, but they are too close to the US and are too pre occupied with counter Russia policy to be used else where.

Agreed, I would not like the EU to take an anti-Russian policy, but just a policy of an independent European entity, so, like as Russia has done, if Europe was pushed it could push back, without having to rely on America to do the pushing.
It's time that Europe as a whole stepped up, stopped being such a petulant child and stood on its own two feet when it comes to its military. It's not as if we don't spend that much on it, the EU military budget is the second largest in the world, and our armed forces are the second largest in the world, with more active personnel than the US.
However, on its own, Germany is the 7th largest spending of money on the military with the 27th largest army. The UK 6th and 25th respectively.

Originally Posted by ikalugin

Well external enemy and reasonable amounts of nationalism is about the most simple to acquire base for state building and is used commonly in the post Socialist Block space.

Aye, sadly so, and it's a shame that this external enemy has fallen back to Russia again in the medias eyes, but if it wasn't Russia it'd be the Middle East and if it wasn't the middle east it'd be China. A sad fact of life that large groups of people need some sort of enemy figure to direct their fear and hate towards.

As to the EU - it could always arm the Eastern (and not so European) Europeans (Poland, Turkey being the two obvious choices), as they appear to be willing to militarise heavily. The issue here is that those parties are influenced heavily by the US and other external sources and thus would not always act in EU interests I think.

Also agreed, I have the greatest respect for Poland and the Eastern European nations, but they are still rather hot-headed, fantastic in a fight, but would they be willing to hold fast in the face of provocation? Not sure they could, and that's the sort of problems that start wars in the middle of deliberate careful sabre rattling.

The other one would be to befriend Russia, and this would lift most if not all external military threats from EU area proper (as well as making Russian Navy people very happy) but this train is gone now I think.

That train left the platform at least a decade ago, sadly, we had our chance and we blew it and now both sides have dug in for round two of the Cold War. The key question is what the US is going to do.
All that I have written above has been written from the viewpoint of a possibility of US ducking back into its shell and going into isolationist mode, which as Skybird has already point out, is a rather naive viewpoint of 'if I don't look at it, it doesn't exist', however in the American mindset this is a very tempting view, and to be honest I can't say I blame them, it's not as if they are showered with praise from their 'allies' any more. In fact, I don't think they have been showered in praise since May 1945...but that's how it goes.
Of course, if the US continues to prop up the EU then we may continue our internal bickering at leisure, knowing that the US will be there to bail us out if it all goes wrong (again), but if it doesn't...then things will have to change.

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Oberon

I meant in the future, if the US retreats from Europe then there will be a void of power which Europe itself will not fill because it will be too busy attacking and bickering at each other.

I'm not trying to kick up some kind of Red Scare, although to be honest if you think that Eastern Europe and the Baltics don't suspect Russia of trying to regain its control over them...then I think you should probably talk to some more Eastern Europeans. We've already had one make his views clear in this thread. Rational or not, that is a real fear that they have and no-one is going to tell them otherwise, especially after the Ukrainian debacle.
It would be even worse if the EU and NATO fell apart, because they would see us as having abandoned them...again.

No, Skybird, I probably haven't understood what you've said, and I doubt I'm in the minority here on that, I want a Europe that will stand together, not the Europe of the 19th century which ended up in World War One and World War Two, and you can't tell me that the European Union or America was responsible for that. We've had 2000 years of bloodshed, war, destruction and famine, and I'm not exactly keen on any of them, I rather like peace, I rather like it when members of my family don't die, and I'd much rather that we didn't wind up at war with Germany...again.

Long live the strong central state then - the great evil that has caused all that you fear so much.

Im preaching like that since years. If you have not understood me in all that time,l then you also will not understand it in the future. Nor will you understand the rational behind liberalism, capitalism, the two thinoling school to which the histoy of your own country and its culture has contributed so incredibly much, and maybe more than any other country.

And the wars even of the recent ten years that broke lose due to people and cultures forced together that did not match and enver should have been forced together - forget it all then,.r efuse to learn a lesson from that.

You actively help by your thinking to achieve right what you want to prevent. And the price will be not different from that that was paid by the people living under such regimes before.

[MH]

Well external enemy and reasonable amounts of nationalism is about the most simple to acquire base for state building and is used commonly in the post Socialist Block space

It definitely is.
Russia is very busy in nation building actually.

[Onkel Neal]

Originally Posted by Skybird

Though I can understand the sentiment behind this, it is not really realistic, but surreal. A world from which you run away, nevertheless can and will reach you, even overtake you - globalised economy and all that, the world good-willingly believing the illusion of papermoney as a precondition of your dollar so that you still can be able to buy at least something with it for some time. You think your government will kleave the world alone? Militarikly, maybe. Financially, US spasms will become bigger and interventions, at least attempts to intervene, more frequent, and more intense. Delayed filing of insolvency - it brings out some of the worst in politics, and nations.

Who said anything about running away? We can still do trade, and our economy would benefit greatly if we cut our defense budget down to the levels of European countries. Heck, I bet that would solve our debt problem in about 10 years.

As for defense, if the US would stop messing around in the ME, and seek an alliance with China, we would be safe with our oceans and nuclear deterrent. Let the Syrians, Russians and Ukrainians work their issues out without us.

Originally Posted by Oberon

Then we must accept the fact that Europe no longer means anything. We have been overtaken, obsoleted, made redundent by the big three, America, Russia and China. If America collapses inward then whither now Europe? There is no single European nation which can challenge Russia either militarily or financially, if there's something the past two centuries have taught Europe it should be this. Only as a single unified force can Europe hope to keep its independence, but sadly I think that petty nationalistic squabbles are going to ruin any chance of this.
Europe can work together, but only if it drags its collective arses out of the last century and into this one, but I might as well wish for the moon while I'm at it. It's shameful how easily people fall for the same cheap nationalistic rubbish that has been spewed out in justification for hatred and wars over the last two centuries.

Ehm, don't worry, the US going back to its roots is just wishful thinking on my part. Our politicians will keep us in every hot spot until we are bankrupt. Then I'm moving to Denmark as a refugee.

[TarJak]

More that the military equipment industry will keep the US politicians on the teat, keeping policy focused on meddling in the ME and anywhere else the can peddle weapons.

[Onkel Neal]

yeah, well, there's that too

[ikalugin]

Originally Posted by MH

It definitely is.
Russia is very busy in nation building actually.

Russia at least has a historic tradition of being a sovereign country and was (and still is) suppressing nationalists via various means. Some of the other ex Soviet members had to start from the scratch, for example the Ukraine and Belorussia.

Belorussia just tried to maintain the Soviet tradition of centralised economy and did pretty well actually, especially in the agricultural and industrial sectors. In fact they have better GDP per capita than a far more fortunate (resources, land and Soviet heritage wise) Ukraine.

Ukraine (and other countries such as Kazahstan) on the other hand tried to create an essentially new nation-state, abusing the rights if the minorities, feeding the local nationalists (for example promoting the NAZI helper organisations, who actively participated in Holocaust and other such NAZI crimes), abusing the rights of local minorities, attempting to create a historical myth of the independence, an independent culture basis.

This process of Soviet dissolution and subsequent state building lead to a number of frozen conflicts, some of which went through their hot phase in the 90s and 00s. Now we see yet another fault line opening and going through the hot phase.

[Oberon]

Originally Posted by Neal Stevens

Ehm, don't worry, the US going back to its roots is just wishful thinking on my part. Our politicians will keep us in every hot spot until we are bankrupt. Then I'm moving to Denmark as a refugee.

Move to Scotland as a refugee, that's what I'm going to do.

In all seriousness though, isolationism as a whole generally doesn't work out in the long term, something somewhere along the line will slip under the radar and catch you out.
Disengagement and refocusing of priorities is perhaps a better idea, certainly getting out of the Middle East would be a good idea, although getting off the oil teat is perhaps the first biggest step to doing that, unfortunately doing such things requires a level of nationalised industry that I don't think the US would fly for due to its viewpoint on the free market...and the free market is going to go where the money is, which means that anyone disengaging from the Middle East and risking their money is going to see their capital take wings and fly off.
So really a very slow, very long term process is what is needed, and I think that such a thing is taking place, but it's going to take at least half a century to do, providing that it isn't reversed by future presidents. In the meantime though, the US is stuck babysitting the Middle East, we in Europe will do what we can to assist, but our voice is fragmenting and unity is dropping so there will come a point in the future where we may be too busy cleaning up an explosion of nationalist tendencies in Europe to be able to help...in fact we may well require your help again to return peace to Europe or what's left of it.

Working with China rather than against it is a good idea, but one that comes with some pretty big pitfalls. It requires drawing back from American interests in the western pacific, places such as Japan, Taiwan, the Philippines, and South Korea. There would be two choices in regards to Japan, either abandon it or help it to ditch Article Nine and re-militarise, either which way if the US draws back from the western Pacific then Japan will re-militarise. It's already slowly heading that way, and that's with the US still around. If you start to work with China, then you face losing Japan, and probably South Korea as friends, the two are just not compatible, which means that eventually somewhere down the line you're going to probably wind up in another war in the Pacific, either fighting with or against Japan.

Like it or not, the US is a bit like the superglue of the world at the moment, it's keeping a lot of things together, the EU, the western Pacific, and when that glue is removed, then there's going to be a lot of shaking up which will probably involve or end in a lot of conflict. It's not the first time this has happened, when Rome fell, Europe spent the next couple of centuries in conflict until states were able to coalesce out of the ruins.

[ikalugin]

This assumes that the conflict of interest is sufficiently big in Europe to lead to an all out European war. Sure some borders may be redrawn (Balkans and ex Soviet states), but I don't see how this would lead to a mass war without the US.

[Oberon]

Originally Posted by ikalugin

This assumes that the conflict of interest is sufficiently big in Europe to lead to an all out European war. Sure some borders may be redrawn (Balkans and ex Soviet states), but I don't see how this would lead to a mass war without the US.

I guess it depends on how the nationalistic propaganda which is being stirred up against the EU develops if the EU collapses, whether it fades out or whether it grows into the ugly sort of fashion that developed in the 19th and 20th centuries. It's easy to create a war against someone if you degrade them into an entity which is considered inferior or a threat.
I could be wrong, the borders of the major European powers may remain static in a post-US post-EU world, it would be nice to think that we have gotten to the point where as nationstates we can actually co-operate enough to avoid such things...but I am doubtful.

[Skybird]

The EU is what makes nationaloiusts and radicals strong with its arrogant and intransparent behavior, its nepotist policies and corrupt lobbies.

It strikes me how one can complain about states and that they would go to war immediately again - and then wanting to install an even bigger, greater, more tyrannic superstate. The states have been at the root of past wars, especially the really big ones. States are monopolists in violating rules and creating these rules afterwards to legalise their doing.

More regulation by those who already messed up until here. Sure, that must be the solution!

My reply is different: not miore but less statehood. Not more but less paternalism. Not more but less regulation. Not bigger, but smaller states. Not more obedience byx citizens towards the feudal elites hijacking states, but states and its administrative leader needing to fear citizens. Less taxing, much less taxing. More taxes staying where they have been risen instead of moviong them to a centralised controlling instance. Well, the classical canon of arguments from the Austrian school and classical libertarianism.

I am not a nationalist. I am a zero-state-agent. And I certainly wnat today'S political caste being line dup against the wall, that is true. Since these antisocial parasites enjoy their ever increasing priveleges by protecting the system that feeds them, they will not let go voluntarily, we see that all the time - but we still must get rid of these. Do not vote for somebody anymore, vote him out of office, and he gets patronaged by his party and pops up somewhere else. The election principle fails in our voter-bribing-democracy (Christoph Braunschweig). Party-dynasties and a cast5e of feudal self-understanding have been installed. Laws and vlaue system have been tailored by these since decades to proptect thjeir interests and their influence and power. Play by their rules - and you are guaranteed to be dominated by them. Faces may come and go and change seats in various offices - the family of theirs, this deeply rotten, corrupted breed, always prevails.

Europe - means plural, not singular. The diversity led to competition and innovation, this is what made Europe unique amongst world culture's place in history, influencing the human global civilsation more than any other. Foster the diversity and allow regional differences to balance themselves out against each other all by private interaction of free private people. Deny a new feudal caste to diactate half a billion people how they have to live, how they have to decide, and how they have to think. The EU has caused havoc with its growing cedntrelaism and increaisng powers. The Euro, forcing incompatible economie sinto the sdame frsamework, has destroyed social peace, has fostered nationbal ressentiments, and mutual abuse. Egoism spikes high again in the EU's European directorate. Old nationalistic trenches are opening up again due to its presumption. Economic lobbies as well as ideological lobbies have become more powerful than ever before under its protection. Bureaucracy is constantly increasing. The market is more heavily overregulated by planned than ever before, maybe with the exception of the planned economies in the USSR'S former sphere of influence. Europe is openly submitting to arch-socialist principles of power and erosion of economic key principles, even the most essential minimum of economic reason.

And btw, the peace in Europe has not been brought and not been protected by the EU or its predecessor, but by the threat from the Sovjet Union, and NATO.

And the citizen'S sympathy for and approval of the eU is declining since years, and is at an all-time low.

More of that, please! More centrlasied power! More monopoly for one state! More planned economy! More regulation! More pltical Führer of thje like we have already and that already cost us dearly! Long live the European superstate! Long live the EUSSR! Do swidanja, liberty! We do not need the Sovjets to repeat their model!

[ikalugin]

Well, how do you deal with market failure and risk seeking behaviour of financial institutions?

What about depressive regions (with high structural unemployement), how do you deal with those?

[HunterICX]

Originally Posted by Oberon

It's not so much us challenging Russia, it's if Russia decides to challenge us. It's about retaining European independence in a Russian dominated market.

Well we never really gave them a chance to challenge us as we usually beat them in that by a punch of some European bastard that decided to kick their door in and comes to the nasty conclussion that it was a bad idea.

Originally Posted by Oberon

It's easy to create a war against someone if you degrade them into an entity which is considered inferior or a threat

It's not just easy, it's all that is needed.
Just goes to show how uncivilized we actually are apart from that we no longer take a crap in the streets (but even that's not the case when people are staggering home after clubbing )

Originally Posted by Oberon

I could be wrong, the borders of the major European powers may remain static in a post-US post-EU world, it would be nice to think that we have gotten to the point where as nationstates we can actually co-operate enough to avoid such things...but I am doubtful.

Well one thing we can be sure of when you read our history is that nothing will last down to our mere existence.