The energy thread

[Rockstar]

It’s been said there was an explosion in the vicinity of the leaks. I suppose sabotage is a possibility however what would be the point? Though it was filled in anticipation of its use it was shut down and nothing was flowing to Germany. I’m inclined to think it probably had something more to do with the crap ton load of unexploded ordinance and mines littering in the Baltic Sea.

[Jimbuna]

Originally Posted by Rockstar

It’s been said there was an explosion in the vicinity of the leaks. I suppose sabotage is a possibility however what would be the point? Though it was filled in anticipation of its use it was shut down and nothing was flowing to Germany. I’m inclined to think it probably had something more to do with the crap ton load of unexploded ordinance and mines littering in the Baltic Sea.

The only thing I'm certain of is the Russians won't admit to it even if they were responsible.

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Rockstar

It’s been said there was an explosion in the vicinity of the leaks. I suppose sabotage is a possibility however what would be the point? Though it was filled in anticipation of its use it was shut down and nothing was flowing to Germany. I’m inclined to think it probably had something more to do with the crap ton load of unexploded ordinance and mines littering in the Baltic Sea.

You can safely assume that ww2 ordnance has nothing to do with it. There were 3 explosions, damaging 3 pipes on the day a danish polish new pipe was opened and crosses the ns1 and 2 in vicinity of the explosions.
It was a threat, demonstrating to the eu how vulnerable its lifelines are.

[Jimbuna]

Originally Posted by Skybird

You can safely assume that ww2 ordnance has nothing to do with it. There were 3 explosions, damaging 3 pipes on the day a danish polish new pipe was opened and crosses the ns1 and 2 in vicinity of the explosions.
It was a threat, demonstrating to the eu how vulnerable its lifelines are.

Agreed

[Rockstar]

Well maybe it was Biden “If Russia invades…then there will be no longer a Nord Stream 2. We will bring an end to it.”

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Rockstar

Well maybe it was Biden “If Russia invades…then there will be no longer a Nord Stream 2. We will bring an end to it.”

Possible but unlikely. Occam'S razor, Catfish mentioned it, to me points at Russia. The US would risk tremendous damage if it becomes known that ther attack was done by the US.



Russia just ticks all the boxes. And it has strong motives. In the main, to maixmise energy crisis in Europe in order to destabilise the public and make iot reovlting against the policy of its government. Heck, that motive is so strong and logical, it radiates so intense that it blinds the eye.



90+% likelihood that it was Russia. Less than 5% that it was the US. 2% Ukraine, 1% Poland and Germany each, and the rest for alternative explanations.



Its not impossible that it was the US. But very unlikely.

[Rockstar]

Originally Posted by Skybird

Possible but unlikely. Occam'S razor, Catfish mentioned it, to me points at Russia. The US would risk tremendous damage if it becomes known that ther attack was done by the US.



Russia just ticks all the boxes. And it has strong motives. In the main, to maixmise energy crisis in Europe in order to destabilise the public and make iot reovlting against the policy of its government. Heck, that motive is so strong and logical, it radiates so intense that it blinds the eye.



90+% likelihood that it was Russia. Less than 5% that it was the US. 2% Ukraine, 1% Poland and Germany each, and the rest for alternative explanations.



Its not impossible that it was the US. But very unlikely.

Hell it could be anyone or anything. Russia could have just as easily kept the valve closed until a later date. It doesn’t make sense to me that Russia would destroy the one and only real piece of leverage it had over Europe. The one bargaining chip worth a damn is now gone forever.

The only alternatives for Russia is continue waging a losing and increasingly unpopular war or withdraw.

[Skybird]

Putin struggles to merely survive in the present. He needs the Europeans to collapse in thei unity and solidarity NOW. What wilkl be in the far away future is not his interest aqnmyore. Immediate survival - thats the new name of the new game for him.

And this event shocks the Europeans. Thats why it was done. It shows them thbeir vulnerability, on the day they open a new pipeline.

He is desperate. If he cannot wear out European support and unity, he is toast. He must bring the European societies into rebellion mode against the Russia-hostile policies of their governments. And the best chance for that is in the energy game. He has especially Germany in his sights, though not only, but especially Germany. The public mood here is in a shift, in Russia's favour and against supporting Ukraine. If he can overturn the German policy - and Bubble Olaf must look like a promising candidate - than likely other Europeans will follow.

Its maybe his last escalation of threats before nuclear escalating. I mean he is runnign out of threat options now.



And mark my word, I said it often enough: Putin always choses escalation, if being called for his cards. Its a pattern throughout his political "career". Always escalating, never falling back, for that is a sign of weakness in his book that would see him being overthrown at home.


Also, I am not certain that he really is fully rational anymore. He looked changed already before the war. Paranoid. Disconnected. Drifting into the realm of nationalistic mysticism. They say its due to his isolation during two Corona years, and that he has so redeuce docnbtacts that he necessarily gets a distorted feedback about the reality outside. I doi not know if this is true, but the Putin I saw playing the West against the wall for 20 years this is oto anymore - he makes unbelievable big mistakes now.

Reminds me terribly of Hitler's last weeks.

[Rockstar]

I’d have too ask. Why is Russia simply shutting the valve off on the remaining gas lines and not blowing them up?

I think the destruction of NS 1&2 has more to do with preventing Germany from becoming an energy hub for Russian gas. It would have minimized Ukraine’s place in the world and allowed it to be easily swallowed up by a strengthened Russia. Moving Russia even closer to Poland and Baltic states who Incan assure you do not like that idea in any way shape or form. They’ve very vocal about that for close to twenty years.

Reading some of AfD, Die Linke, party goals and even Olaf’s history. All are far from being NATO friendly. Far left, far right what ever you want to call them I think have a nationalist bent and are not very good European neighbors. They want to build back better but they want to do that with Russia and that’s not going happen.

[Skybird]

I have repeated it often enough now.



https://www.subsim.com/radioroom/sho...postcount=6745

[Jimbuna]

Nord Stream: Sweden finds new leak in Russian gas pipeline

Sweden has found a new leak in a major undersea pipeline carrying Russian natural gas to the EU - making it the fourth discovered this week.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63071552

[Skybird]

Gas consumption in German pirvate households in September was 14.5% higher than September last year.

Plans say to avoid gas e,mergcny escalation over th wwinter, instea dthere should be savings of at least 20%.

Means reality and theory are ~35% apart. Does not look as if it will work out well. I think it was illusory anyway, probably. When people are cold in their flats, they turn up the heating if they can afford it, thats natural. And the government has just decided to raise national debts by another 200 billion Euros to pay gas compensations to keep gas affordable. That reduces the incentive to save gas, and it pushes inflation.


Everything financed on more credit.

I said yesterday or the day before that we now have a meta-crisis where the critical symptoms are cascading. It will get worse and worse, I fear, I do not see how we get off this trip anymore, ever. Not in my lifetime at least.


This song from the old movie "Wargames" matches and describes our situation well, I feel and think. Its not about the movie and its world war looming, but just this song and text.





Standing together, at the edge of the world

Nowhere to go from where we are

Sharing a secret at the edge of the world

This time we may have come too far

From the life we’ve known, from simple things and peaceful days

Come too far, too far from old familiar ways

Standing together, at the edge of the world

No turning back from where we are

Searching for answers at the edge of the world

And though we’re standing on it - we never know how close we are.

[Jimbuna]

Energy prices in the UK go up again tomorrow.

[Jimbuna]

The UK is facing "a significant risk" of gas shortages this winter, according to the industry regulator, which could impact electricity supplies.

Ofgem said due to Russia's war with Ukraine, there is a possibility the UK could enter a "gas supply emergency".

This would lead to supplies being cut to power stations which use gas to generate the country's electricity.

It places firms at risk of running out of money because of huge charges they pay if they cannot deliver electricity.

Ofgem wrote a letter in response to SSE, which operates four gas-fired power stations in the UK which produce electricity.

SSE is concerned that operators of gas-fired power stations faces millions of pounds worth of penalties if it is unable to fulfil promises to supply electricity "caused by events outside their control".

Ofgem said: "Due to the war in Ukraine and gas shortages in Europe, there is a significant risk that gas shortages could occur during the winter 2022-23 in Great Britain. As a result, there is a possibility that Great Britain could enter into a gas supply emergency."

If this happens, supplies would be cut to "the largest gas users" which will likely be "large gas-fired power stations which produce electricity to the National Electricity Transmission System".

In the event electricity supplies are disrupted, generators would have to pay what are known as "imbalance charges". These cover the cost of National Grid having to find electricity from elsewhere to meet demand.

Ofgem said this "could result in potential insolvency of gas-fired generators if a gas supply emergency occurs".
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-63118574

[Jimbuna]

Which countries are doing the most to tackle energy bills?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/61522123