Here we go again-Ukraine once again

[Jimbuna]

[Rockstar]

Putin cuts off gas to Finland and says Finns will freeze to death this winter.

Finns be like..

[Jimbuna]

At beginning of November, Iran plans to send Russia shipment of more than 200 combat drones, - Defense Intelligence

At the beginning of November, a batch of more than 200 combat drones Shahed-136, Mohajer-6 and Arash-2 is planned to be sent from Iran to the Russian Federation.

This was reported to the Ministry of Education and Culture of the Ministry of Education, Censor.NET informs.

"It is known that the UAVs will be delivered via the Caspian Sea to the port of Astrakhan. The drones will arrive in a disassembled state. In the future, they will be assembled on the territory of the Russian Federation, repainted and applied with Russian markings, in particular "Geran-2", the message says.

Since September 13, when the occupiers first used Iranian kamikaze drones against Ukraine, the Ukrainian Defense Forces have shot down more than 300 such UAVs. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3377602

Russia plans to place Iranian missiles on northern border of Ukraine. We have no protection against them, - Ihnat

Iranian ballistic missiles, which Russia plans to purchase from Iran, will probably be placed on the northern border of Ukraine.

This was announced by the spokesman of the Air Force Command Yurii Ihnat during a briefing at Media Center Ukraine - Ukrinform, Censor.NET reports.

"The range of one missile is 300 km, the other is 700 km. These are ballistic missiles. It is theoretically possible to shoot them down, but in fact it is very difficult to do it with the means we have in our arsenal. We have air defense means, not anti-missile ones." - he said. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3377604

[Jimbuna]

Military aid that Ukraine received in 2022 is 14% less than Russia’s military budget, - Kyslytsia. INFOGRAPHICS

The total military aid provided to Ukraine by Western allies in 2022 is 41.3 billion euros.

This was announced by the Permanent Representative of Ukraine to the UN, Serhii Kyslytsia, Censor.NET informs.

"Military aid that Ukraine received in 2022 is 14% less than Russia's military budget. This and other information by country, including the % of their own military budget allocated to Ukraine, according to data from the Kiel Institute of the World Economy as of October 2022. We appreciate every hryvnia, pound, dollar and euro," the message reads.

Thus, according to published data, the total military aid from Western partners for 10 months of this year exceeded Ukraine's military budget for 2022 by 7.6 times. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3377591

[Jimbuna]

Lukashenko handed over 20 more units of military equipment to Russian army, - "Belarusian Gayun". VIDEO

The ruling regime of Belarus handed over another batch of military equipment to the Russian army. We are talking about 20 BMP-2 units.

This was reported by the "Belarusian Gayun" monitoring group, Censor.NET informs.

According to her data, on October 21, the 7th group of loaded platform wagons with deconserved military equipment of the Armed Forces of Belarus left the Uryche railway station.

"This time, 20 BMP-2 units taken out of conservation from the 969th tank reserve base went to the Volokonovka railway station (Bilhorod region, Russian Federation) and further in the direction of Luhansk," the message says.

According to the group's calculations, over the past month, the ruling regime of Belarus has handed over at least 94 T-72A tanks, 36-44 Urals and 20 BMP-2s to the Russian army. Source: https://censor.net/en/v3377610

[Jimbuna]

US will provide Ukraine with VAMPIRE air defense systems in addition to eight NASAMS, - Pentagon

The US intends to transfer to Ukraine eight NASAMS air defense systems, as well as VAMPIRE anti-drone installations.

As reported by Censor.NET with reference to LIGA.net, this was reported in the Pentagon.

A high-ranking employee of the US Department of Defense said at the briefing that it is about "eight NASAMS air defense systems with the corresponding ammunition", and specified that "two of them will be in Ukraine in the near future, and another six will be transferred somewhat later."

He added that the military assistance will also include air defense equipment aimed at countering drones, in particular VAMPIRE, and other radar systems, since "the threat of UAVs is now very serious" for Ukraine. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3377638

We are fully mobilized to increase military support for Ukraine as soon as possible, in particular, air defense, - Macron

In a telephone conversation with the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, French President Emmanuel Macron stated his readiness to increase military support to Ukraine as soon as possible.

This is reported by Censor.NET with reference to Interfax-Ukraine.

"I confirmed this to President Zelensky this morning: we are fully mobilized to increase our military support to Ukraine as soon as possible, including air defense," Macron wrote on Twitter.

In addition, the French president stated the need to help Ukraine's electricity and water supply infrastructure affected by the Russian Federation.

"Ukraine's electricity and water supply infrastructure has been seriously damaged by Russian attacks. We must act before the onset of winter. We are quickly mobilizing the international community and the private sector," Macron promised. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3377633

[Jimbuna]

Russia has damaged about 40% of entire energy infrastructure of Ukraine, - Zelensky

President Volodymyr Zelensky spoke about the consequences of Russia’s energy terrorism.

He stated this during a meeting with the European Union energy commissioner Kadri Simson, Censor.NET informs.

"Unfortunately, due to the strikes of missiles and kamikaze drones by the Russian Federation on our energy system, we suspended this process. But I am sure that we will restore everything, and in a calmer time, when the situation in our energy system will be stabilized, we will continue exporting electricity to Europe," the head of state said.

Zelensky informed the European Commissioner about the consequences of energy terrorism on the part of Russia, which has already seriously damaged about 40% of the entire energy infrastructure of Ukraine, in particular thermal power plants, thermal power plants and hydroelectric power plants, as well as about the measures taken by our state to stabilize the operation of the energy network. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3377656


In November, we will have more progress in strengthening air defense than in last eight years - Shmyhal

The Prime Minister of Ukraine, Denys Shmyhal, announced that progress in strengthening air defense in October-November will be greater than in eight years since the beginning of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine.

The Prime Minister of Ukraine, Denys Shmyhal, announced this while opening the government meeting, Censor.NET reports with reference to Ukrinform.

"Part of countering Russian plans is strengthening air defense. In October-November, we will make more progress on this issue than in the last eight years. We thank our partners for finally hearing our arguments," Shmyhal said.

He also expressed hope for speeding up the delivery of the promised systems for the protection of all energy facilities of our state. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3377648

[Jimbuna]

No ship will go through "grain corridor" tomorrow: Ukraine, Turkey and UN have decided to suspend its operation

Ukraine, Turkey and the United Nations decided to suspend the "grain corridor" within the Black Sea Grain Initiative on Wednesday, November 2.

This is stated in the statement of the UN representation in the Joint Coordination Center (JCC), published on Tuesday, reports Censor.NET with reference to "European Truth".

"The delegations of Ukraine, Turkey and the UN at the JCC agreed not to plan any movement of vessels within the Black Sea Grain Initiative on November 2," the message states, emphasizing that the suspension is temporary and emergency.

It also states that during Tuesday UN and Turkish inspectors carried out 36 inspections of ships in Ukrainian ports, and reports on them were handed over to the Russian and Ukrainian delegations. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3377680

[Jimbuna]

[Jimbuna]

[Skybird]

Gunnar Heinsohn writes at Achse des Guten about war demographics in Russia. He is the master of this art, I have quoted him repeatedly over the years.



Gunnar Heinsohn (*1943) directed Europe's first institute for comparative genocide research at the University of Bremen from 1993 to 2009. In 2011, he introduced the subject of war demography at the NATO Defense College (NDC Rome) and taught it until 2020.

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Putin overthrow by returning troops?

Wars of conquest from a nation as demographically desolate as Russia have not happened before. Putin knows this, too. His miscalculation regarding the motivation of his own troops and the Ukrainian spirit of resistance could cost him power.

Angry soldiers returning from the Ukrainian war could - as in St. Petersburg in 1917 - turn their disappointment into a rebellion that leads to Russia's collapse. We are familiar with such considerations not only from military analyses - for example, by the astute Ben Hodges - but also from Russian soldiers who were able to flee to the West and from there want to win over their comrades for an uprising. But how likely is such an action?

From 1800 to 1900, Russia consistently recorded 45 to 50 newborns per 1,000 population. In 2000, when fighting and falling men are now born, the figure is 8.8, and even in 2021 the country reaches barely 10, with ethnic Russian women even lower.

The military stalemate of 1917 between Berlin and Petersburg, which brings the abdication of the Tsar in February, leads to the largest ever accumulation of soldiers and sailors in the centers of Russian power. The tsardom had grown from 70 to 142 million inhabitants between 1870 and 1914, more than the other European powers. The peasant families with six to ten children needed only a fraction of the young men who had not yet been demobilized to work in agriculture. For their supply it becomes additionally tight, because the hoped-for conquests for the supply of non-heir brothers failed to materialize. Moreover, with Finland, the Baltic States and Poland, important territories are lost in which Russians used to occupy the most attractive posts.

This affects the career expectations of the aristocratic and bourgeois families, who also have a large number of children. Thus, it is not surprising that, due to defections, 90 percent of the Red commanders eventually came from the tsarist officer corps. The situation partially resembles that of the Turkish upper class, which almost simultaneously loses the Ottoman Empire and rescues itself to Anatolia, where it takes over lands and posts of the native Greeks and Armenians by extermination or expulsion.

No more demographic vitality

The Bolsheviks' 1917 promise of bread, i.e., work, is thus met by millions of desperate expectations for the future. The resulting upheaval, or civil war, with the murder of the tsar's family cost about 1.5 million people killed and executed by 1923. In addition, up to 5 million people died as a result of displacement, epidemics and hunger. The victims are mourned in the families, but in the end they are endured like a slightly increased and soon temporary infant mortality. Even the approximately 800,000 victims of Stalin's "Great Purge" in 1936-38 remain demographically undramatic. Only sons are almost never affected. The enormously strong 1880s/1890s cohorts die, with family formation and procreation behind them. Unlike Hitler's Germany, which also murders the children of Jews and Polish intelligentsia, the offspring of those executed by Stalin are allowed to live and, through ideological zeal, to rise to the top. Still in 1937 to 1939 Russia reaches 40 newborns per 1,000 inhabitants. The tremendous human losses from Germany's attack in 1941 to the end of World War II are balanced by 1955.

None of this demographic vitality exists in Russia today. Life expectancy, which rose from 65 to 73 between 2010 and 2018, slipped back to 70 by 2021. The numerically weakest age cohorts of all are the current 15-29 year olds, from whom active soldiers and prospective recruits must be drawn. Even in absolute numbers, the country has never had fewer 15-29 year olds available than today, at least since 1870.

Those who perish among them are statistically their mother's only son or even only child. Where, then, were their avengers to come from? And how could gunmen reach Moscow and then penetrate into the heart of the dictatorship, which is guarded not by the army but by the elite Dzerzhinsky Division of the Interior Ministry?

An action that is bloodless and yet topples Putin?

Conspiracy is hardly to be expected even from those who have been forcibly recruited since September 2022. They have an average age of 35 and come from the last cohorts - in 1987 there were 2.2 children per woman - just above the net reproduction of 2.1 children. Those who fall and have not yet reproduced will wipe out their family line just like the 90,000 who have already fallen or become disabled. Applied to the German population, which has an even higher average age, that would be 55,000; in Austria or Switzerland, it would be a tenth of that number. For the USA, which has suffered 102,000 casualties in real terms in all wars since 1945, the shortfall would be as high as 214,000 dead and wounded.

Putin's quite high birth premiums - paid from 2007 onwards - increased the number of births to 12 to 13 per 1,000 inhabitants in the short period from 2008 to 2016. However, even this only achieves 25 percent of the tsarist-era volumes. In any case, those born in 2008 will still be far too young for the army in 2022. Moreover, they are studying on at least 400,000 recruitment refugees how to get to safety in time. Now, precisely among the talent that has now escaped are the minds that are needed not only to organize an upheaval, but also to start anew. Will my homeland come back up if I stay or return? This fundamental question of potential emigrants is asked by them in their emergency domiciles. If it is answered negatively, there is only permanent decline for Russia.

Wars of conquest from a nation as demographically desolate as Russia have never been seen before. Putin knows that, too. He had planned only invasion, capitulation and the eradication of Ukrainian nationalism. He did not expect resistance from his aging opponent. The fact that even the aging defend themselves when threatened with genocide was his decisive miscalculation.

Of course, the army and the Interior Ministry, i.e. the secret services, are also aware of Russia's demographic fiasco and the immense loss of competence due to the death or emigration of the rare youth. They do not fear a civil war army marching against Moscow, but they do fear the ruin of the nation and thus the loss of their own prosperity. They are therefore likely to plan an action that will be bloodless and still topple Putin. In this staging, they will proceed in such a way that he - for health reasons - will be allowed to announce his resignation personally and also to introduce his successor into office, but not select him himself. In return, he is left with the assets, palaces and residences of his mistresses. This will not protect him from international prosecution, but it will protect him from extradition to the appropriate authorities.
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German: https://www.achgut.com/artikel/putin...hrende_truppen

[Jimbuna]

Total combat losses of Russian Federation since beginning of war - about 73,270 people (+800 per day), 1,438 UAVs, 2,714 tanks, 1,733 artillery systems, 5,525 armored vehicles

The Russian occupiers, who invaded the territory of Ukraine, continue to suffer losses. As of the morning of November 2, the loss of enemy personnel are approximately 73,270 people.

This is reported by Censor.NET with reference to the press center of the General Staff.

The total combat losses of the enemy from 24/02 to 02/11 are approximately:

73,270 (+800) personnel were liquidated,
tanks ‒ 2714 (+16) units,
armored fighting vehicles ‒ 5525 (+24) units,
artillery systems – 1733 (+3) units,
MLRS – 387 (+4) units,
air defense equipment ‒ 198 (+1) units,
aircraft – 277 (+1) units,
helicopters – 258 (+1) units,
UAVs of operational-tactical level - 1438 (+23),
cruise missiles ‒ 397 (+0),
ships ‒ 16 (+0) units,
automotive equipment and tank trucks – 4153 (+10) units,
special equipment ‒ 154 (+0).
The occupiers suffered the greatest losses in the Avdiivka and Lyman directions. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3377757

[Jimbuna]

Iran’s "Arash-2" drones carry five times more explosives than "Shahed". This could be turning point in war - CNN

Russia’s use of the "Arash-2" drone has the potential to become a "major turning point" in the war against Ukraine.

CNN writes about it, Censor.NET reports with reference to Lb.ua.

"Any deployment of the "Arash-2" drone by Russia in the war in Ukraine may cause additional pressure on the country's air defense," the publication notes.

It is known that the combat drone "can carry five times more explosives than the Shahed".

The existence of "Arash-2" first became known in 2019, but its exact capabilities remain unknown.

The drone is named after Arash the Archer, a heroic character from Iranian mythology who was the most skilled archer. Legend has it that he fired an arrow that flew all morning and fell at noon 2,250 kilometers away. When Arash released his bow, he allegedly fell to the ground and died," CNN writes. It should be noted that since September 13, when the Russians first used attack drones against Ukraine, the air defense forces of the Ukrainian Armed Forces have shot down more than 300 drones, but dozens managed to hit their targets and destroy vital energy infrastructure.

We will remind, according to the reports of anonymous officials of the Western country, Iran plans to send to Russia a thousand units of weapons by the end of the year, including short-range ballistic missiles of the "surface-to-surface" class and combat drones.

The Defence Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine reported that Iran should send a batch of more than 200 "Shahed-136", "Mohajer-6", and "Arash-2" combat drones to the Russians in early November. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3377764

[Jimbuna]

Ships under our flag will continue to move through "grain corridor", - Ministry of Defense of Turkey

Within the framework of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, there are no problems with the exit of vessels under the Turkish flag, they will continue to exit.

As Censor.NET informs, Ukrinform reports this with reference to the Ministry of National Defense of Turkey, the head of this ministry, Hulusi Akar, told journalists.

"As of yesterday, ships that left Ukrainian ports and are going by sea continue their journey. There are no problems with the departure of ships under the Turkish flag. They will continue to leave," the Minister of Defense said.

Akar noted that more than 10 million tons of food have already been exported from the ports of Ukraine. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3377766

[Skybird]

DER TAGESSPIEGEL writes:
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Military apparently discussed nuclear attack on Ukraine - authorities in Moscow upgrade protective bunker

According to the New York Times, Putin's generals discussed the use of tactical nuclear weapons. Meanwhile, preparations for population protection are underway in the Russian capital.

Senior Russian military officials recently held talks on the use of tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine, according to a report. The discussions have led to heightened concern in Washington, it said. The New York Times (NYT) reported this, citing several senior U.S. officials.

The talks specifically revolved around a possible timing for the use of nuclear weapons, the report said, revealing how "frustrated Russian generals are with their failures on the ground." Russian President Vladimir Putin, however, reportedly did not attend the meetings. The Kremlin leader, however, has threatened to use nuclear weapons on several occasions in the recent past.

U.S. officials declined to comment further on possible attack scenarios. CIA Director William J. Burns, however, had previously expressed speculation that Putin's "potential desperation" over setbacks in the Ukraine war could prompt him to use a nuclear weapon.

At present, however, there is no evidence that the Russian army is deploying its nuclear weapons, officials told the NYT. "We continue to monitor this matter as best we can, and we see no indication that Russia is making preparations for such a deployment," the newspaper quoted U.S. National Security Council Communications Director John Kirby as saying.

Shelters in schools and clinics are being tested for functionality

The New York Times article is given further urgency by reports from Russia. For in mid-October, when U.S. intelligence agencies became aware of discussions in the Russian military leadership, preparations began in Moscow to prepare bomb shelters and bunkers.

On October 24, the exiled Russian investigative portal "Meduza" had reported, citing local Russian media, that authorities were inspecting shelters in schools.

According to the local newspaper, an employee of one of the companies involved said, "Of course, no one has given us a concrete order [on paper], but we have been told verbally that there are instructions to put the shelters into operation. Currently, we are preparing sewers and installing power supply in four schools in the center of Moscow." The shelters are currently not in good condition it was added.

As early as October 14, the first property managers in Moscow reportedly told tenants that the shelters were being repaired.
Signs reading "Shelter" have appeared at Moscow Children's Polyclinic No. 110. They point in the direction of the basement. This is reported by the Baza news portal.

On October 19, there was a report that numerous clinics in Moscow were equipping their bomb shelters. However, the Moscow Health Department later denied a report that there were instructions to prepare the bunkers for use.

Civic office in Moscow confirms preparations

Work on population protection is also underway outside public facilities. In Moscow, according to information from the Tagesspiegel, the authorities are in the process of inspecting the air raid shelters in the city and checking whether they are still operational. In everyday life, however, Muscovites have not noticed this so far.

A citizens' office in Moscow confirmed the preparations to the Tagesspiegel. The addresses of the bunkers, however, have so far been kept secret and will not be passed on to citizens. However, those who present themselves at the office with their ID and can prove an address will be given the address of the local shelter.

Russian whistleblower Maria Dmitrieva recently reported in a detailed interview with the Tagesspiegel that the Russian leadership is discussing the use of nuclear weapons.

"A nuclear attack is obviously being prepared because preparations for nuclear safeguards are in full swing," Dmitrieva confirmed the reports from Russia. "Moscow is preparing very actively. Doctors, soldiers, everyone is preparing. I witnessed this before I left. I saw arrows marked 'place of protection.' The arrows were reprinted, according to a report.

Dmitrieva's partner, who works for the FSB intelligence agency, also told her shortly before she left that the government planned to resort to tactical nuclear weapons in case of defeat.

"He said that our country is losing the war right now, and if Surovikin doesn't achieve what he was tasked with, acts of terror and sabotage are planned in Russia so that the Ukrainians can be blamed - and have a justification for the use of nuclear weapons."

"The likelihood of the use of tactical nuclear weapons is very high because on today's day Russia fell face down in the dirt. It started the war and lost it. And now they are threatening the whole world," Dmitrieva said.

"There is a probability of using nuclear weapons and it is very high - but whether Putin uses them depends on the situation in Ukraine." A use of nuclear weapons can only be prevented within Russia, within the circle of power, Dmitrieva believes.
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