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Old 03-27-23, 06:30 AM   #10486
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Old 03-27-23, 06:41 AM   #10487
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Old 03-27-23, 06:45 AM   #10488
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Russia is slowly advancing from air dominance to acchieving air superiority.

https://abcnews.go.com/International...ry?id=98133444


Su-35's are very capable fighters. Their radar combined with their long range missiles make them a threat old Ukrainian Mig-29s cannot deal with. Not to mention the numerical ratio of 10:1 to 12:1 in favour of Russia.
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Old 03-27-23, 07:30 AM   #10489
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I hope this man is right and I am wrong. It would be better for the cause.



https://www.nzz.ch/feuilleton/marcus...&_x_tr_sl=auto


Quote:
(...)
If the propaganda is supposedly catching on so well, could it not also be that politicians in the West are losing patience, seeking an early peace, and thus thwarting your military scenario of a Russian defeat?

The military situation documents a brutal, objective reality that does not submit to political discourse. The balance of power is negotiated on the battlefield. The result is measured in destroyed systems and dead people. It sounds cruel, but that's how it is. It does not depend on the Germans or on the French, at least in the political sense. Both Scholz and Macron come from a long tradition of friendship with Russia, even though both states now support Ukraine with weapons. I don't even listen to the political discourse anymore. What counts for me are the objective facts. And I observe them in the actual fight. There is no evidence at all that the military support of the West would diminish, even if the appeasers are disproportionately received in the media.

You give the impression in this interview that Europe is very Russia-friendly. But it's the other way around: large majorities in the West are behind Ukraine.

Not yet in Germany and France. But one should not overestimate that, because Germany is not a militarily decisive power. On the contrary. Germany would do best to hand over its weapons systems in full to Ukraine. Then Russian aggression would be neutralized in reverse, and today's ailing Bundeswehr could be turned into an army for the 21st century. Fortunately, Europe's security does not depend on Germany, otherwise we would have long been part of the neo-Russian empire.

Do you see yourself as an outsider in Germany?

Fortunately, I can say that I have not spent most of my adult life in Germany and am therefore immune to the strangely emotional discussion culture there. I am alternately called a hyper-realist and a Nato warmonger. I can live with that. I think in twenty years we will look back with horror at some German politicians and the Schröder and Merkel governments. We will shudder with pleasure and say, "Thank God that turned out well.

What do you mean exactly?

Just think what would have happened if the war hadn't come for another ten years: even more Russian money in Europe, Nord Stream 2 completed, Germany getting 70 percent of its energy from Russia. Would the Germans still have supported Ukraine then? It sounds cynical, but fortunately this war is taking place now.
(...)
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Old 03-27-23, 11:41 AM   #10490
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Vladimir Putin is offering Russian soldiers £500 for every kilometre of territory they steal from Ukraine as he frantically bids to increase his depleted army.
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Old 03-27-23, 12:50 PM   #10491
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Both the German chancellor and the defence minister confirm that 18 Leopard-2A7s and 40 Marder 1A3 have arrived in Ukraine.
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Old 03-27-23, 12:57 PM   #10492
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Skybird View Post
I hope this man is right and I am wrong. It would be better for the cause.



https://www.nzz.ch/feuilleton/marcus...&_x_tr_sl=auto
Quote:
Originally Posted by Marcus Keupp
Marcus Keupp uses a tank calculation to explain how he came to the conclusion that the war was decided in October. In an interview with the "NZZ" he talks about estimates by western military analysts. Accordingly, at the beginning of the war, Russia had 2,900 deployable main battle tanks. He offsets these against estimates from the Oryx collective . This uses visual evidence to estimate the casualties suffered by Russians and Ukrainians in the war. "Here we are today at 1845 tanks that Russia lost - so about 5 per day of the war," Keupp explains. "The remaining reserve of 1055 pieces is enough for a maximum of 211 days of the war." The end of October is in 211 days - if Keupp's calculation comes true, Russia will finally run out of tanks in October. And in his opinion, the calculation is “still conservative”, the military economist explains to the “NZZ”. As soon as Western tanks arrive at the battlefield and the Russian army has to resort to older models at the same time, the technological advantage is likely to increase the casualties of the invaders, according to Keupp.

Russia was capable of producing about 100 battle tanks per year before the war - but under better economic conditions. However, at the current attrition rate of five tanks per fighting day, they would have to produce 1,500 tanks per year to compensate for attrition alone. Moreover, Western battle tanks will soon appear on the battlefields - this will once again fundamentally change the situation in Ukraine's favor. Western battle tanks can shoot down Russian ones from a distance. With this combat power, the Ukrainians will split the Russian front. Then it will be quite dramatic for the Russian troops, because the Ukrainian army will systematically attack their supplies. Wars are not decided by major battles, but by reserves and logistics. How can I ensure the best possible long-term supply of my troops? That is the all-important question. Russia's army is pretty bare, there is nothing left to take. The border with Finland, Kaliningrad, even the Far East has been stripped bare: everything Russia has in the way of operational material is in Ukraine. There will be a point where the front simply collapses, as it once did in the First World War.

Russia is a large Potemkin village that has been able to successfully fool the West into believing that it is strong and powerful. Anyone who has ever looked at the country outside the glittering metropolises of Moscow and St. Petersburg got an idea of this. But few Western politicians have ever gone there.
The revolution of 1917 began because the Russian soldier mostly came of regions outside Russia itself, treated like untermench they wanted to go home to support their families because they starved to work the land to survive. if you talk to Russian outside Russia you learn they know they are being used this was also before this war they never had any hope that Moscow will ever help them they know they are the ones that make Russia rich without they will ever get it better. there comes a time they gone walk home and Putin can not stop this he has not the power or force to stop them.
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Old 03-27-23, 01:16 PM   #10493
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The Kremlin-installed leader of Crimea has reportedly formed a pro-Russian mercenary group named "Convoy," which was inspired by the notorious Wagner Group. According to reports, Sergey Aksyonov's group has already been dispatched to occupied areas of southern Ukraine's Kherson region.
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Old 03-27-23, 01:58 PM   #10494
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There was a link to an English article about the same-It was behind a paywall, so I translated the Danish text with deepL.

Quote:
Since leaks were discovered on the Nord Stream 1 and 2 gas pipelines, there have been many different theories about who was behind it.

Russia, Ukraine, the US, the UK and Norway have at various times been accused of being behind or complicit in the sabotage, all countries have denied the accusations.

Now The Times reports that new information has emerged - pointing to Denmark.

Danish naval vessel deviated from route
Four days before the gas pipeline explosions, the Danish naval vessel P524 Nymfen, which monitors Russian shipping, was said to have deviated from its normal patrol route.

Something that has not happened for many years.

'For the first time in many years, it sailed along Bornholm and further north-east to the outer edge of Denmark's estimated radar range. It stopped for half an hour, switched off its transponders and disappeared from international tracking systems for several hours,' writes The Times.

The Times claims to have verified the information about the Danish ship's unusual activity in the days before the sabotage operation in the Baltic Sea, which was first noted by Danish analyst Oliver Alexander.

Why the ship deviated from its normal patrol route is still an unanswered question.

- "It seems that the Danish surveillance vessel was circling the site of the explosion for a reason," says Jacob Kaarsbo, senior analyst at think tank Europa, without elaborating further.

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)
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Old 03-27-23, 03:07 PM   #10495
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^ Thanks! Still not sure what this means –


Meanwhile in russiophile circles:
https://www.newsweek.com/california-...kraine-1759400



"Far-right groups and individuals participated in the Russian aggression. Antisemitism was an important factor of the anti-Ukrainian (and indirectly anti-Western) propaganda and social mobilization in the Russian-occupied parts of Donetsk and Luhansk regions (so-called DPR and LPR)."
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Old 03-27-23, 05:06 PM   #10496
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Old 03-27-23, 08:13 PM   #10497
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Old 03-28-23, 07:10 AM   #10498
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Skybird View Post
Both the German chancellor and the defence minister confirm that 18 Leopard-2A7s and 40 Marder 1A3 have arrived in Ukraine.
Challenger 2 tanks have also arrived but the precise number is currently unclear.
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Old 03-28-23, 07:24 AM   #10499
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Old 03-28-23, 12:44 PM   #10500
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Russia's spring offensive is all but stalled. Attacks have not stopped, but the Russian army is hardly making any more progress in eastern Ukraine. Many military analyses speak of a culminating offensive. That is military jargon for an attack that has passed its peak, explains Peter Wijninga. The former colonel is attached to The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies: "The offensive is going to end like a candle."

Han Bouwmeester nuances this picture. According to the brigadier general and professor of military operational sciences, the Russian offensive never peaked and therefore cannot culminate. According to him, the attacks have "lost their momentum". The Russian attacks have failed, he thinks, because "there was no surprise, they never gained speed and all creativity was missing. Always the same frontal attacks."

Former Colonel Wijninga explains the jamming largely from the organization of the Russian army: "Poor coordination and poor management. It is far too hierarchical. For every problem, they have to call Moscow, so to speak. The Ukrainians are much more flexible, their decision-making is faster. There is much more responsibility at the low level, so they are more creative." The Ukrainians' information position would also be much better. "Because of all the help they get from the West, they see exactly what is happening on the battlefield, while the Russians are often behind."

Wijninga "does not want to be too adamant". Bouwmeester also warns that the attacks have not yet stopped. "Russian troops are still being moved and replaced. They haven't given up yet. But the question is how to proceed," said the HCSS analyst. Ten thousand troops have recently been trained in Belarus. How many of them have already been deployed is unclear. Some are probably already fighting in Luhansk province. These troops are better than the untrained mercenaries of the Wagner army, which tried to take Bakhmut, though. They have since been relieved by elite troops, but they are not successful either. Another sign that the Russian offensive has failed are the rumors surrounding the general staff. Another round of resignations is said to be imminent. It is likely that two sub-commanders will have to leave the field. "Because of the failures," states Wijninga.

The gigantic losses near Voelhedar are heavily blamed on local commander Colonel General Rustam Muradov. His days would therefore be numbered, assumes the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US think tank. The ISW notes that critics of the Russian military are always more interested in punishment than in solving the problems facing the army.

Those Russian critics, the military bloggers, are also skeptical about the plan to station nuclear weapons in Belarus. President Putin announced that last weekend. He would do so at the request of the Belarusian president. Russian bloggers note that those nuclear weapons will not change anything about the situation on the battlefield in Ukraine. The nuclear weapons for Belarus are seen mainly as a signal to the West. Putin is said to want to instill fear so that the West stops supplying weapons. Bouwmeester says the deployment of the nuclear weapons is not so simple, either. "There is no suitable storage in Belarus," he says. Wijninga believes "in all cases there is symbol politics. Putin is also trying to appease his critical supporters in this way".

Putin has ordered his generals to control the entire Donbas region by 1 April. "That will not succeed anyway," Wijninga knows. The northern part of this region, Luhansk province, is almost entirely Russian. But the southern province of Donetsk is still one-third in Ukrainian hands. Missing the deadline is unlikely to affect Russian army commander-in-chief Valery Gerasimov. Meanwhile, the centre of gravity of the Russian effort has shifted somewhat to the south, from Bakhmut to Avdiivka. That is an attempt to encircle the rest of Donetsk province. A tank regiment, just trained in Belarus, is said to have lost much of all its tanks there. As a result of "frontal attacks", the British Ministry of Defense reported in its daily briefing. And so the Russian failures continue to string together for now. https://nos.nl/artikel/2469250-russi...en-zich-aaneen


The picture shows the state of this war, the failure of Putin and his gang of criminals.
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