Constitutional reform in Russia announced. - Page 2

Onkel Neal · 01-15-20, 07:01 PM

Basically Putin is setting things up so he can retain the same power when he becomes PM again or if he decides to lead the new State Council. He has never been a "President", and Medvedev is doing as he is told, he knows he will be killed if he opposes Putin.

ikalugin · 01-15-20, 11:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Onkel Neal

Basically Putin is setting things up so he can retain the same power when he becomes PM again or if he decides to lead the new State Council. He has never been a "President", and Medvedev is doing as he is told, he knows he will be killed if he opposes Putin.

I think Putin is de-facto retiring and not moving around as you would seem to imply. So doing the same thing Yeltsin did in one speech ("I am tired I am leaving") but in a more graceful and gradual way. Another example of a similar transition would be what Kazahstan is doing now. The whole "you would get killed if you oppose" is being over dramatic (and ignorant of specifics of Medvedev's term, particularly at it's start, of relationships within the state).

The key here is distribution rather than movement of power - the reform ensures that there is no seat within the state where it concentrates like it does currently with Presidency. This is done by moving significant powers of President, such as appointing PM and cabinet from President to Parliament, as well as other similar changes.

Moreover under those reforms Putin can no longer hold Presidential office (even with it's powers significantly decreased and moved to Parliament) and Medvedev can hold one term.

Catfish · 01-16-20, 02:39 AM

We will see.. at worst nothing will change. As i said before, always read between the lines, and do not put too much trust in speeches.

The international press does not see it as a retreat:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-r...-idUSKBN1ZE15J

ikalugin · 01-16-20, 06:53 AM

The reform has been discussed for over a decade now, because post 1993 super presidential republic that Yeltsin built as the result of 1993 constitutional crisis and that Putin modified for hands on management style is not sustainable in the long term.

Back in 2007 there was a plan to get the younger generation Gorbachev style and enact big reforms, but due to economic crisis, protests and geopolitical tensions only the military and later pension reforms were enacted, the rest were postponed till better times (which do not seem to be happening) and Putin got back to micromanage the situation again.

Now with no real solution perceivable in short term that Putin actually works with (he solves problems as they come - hence hands on management style) and 2024 retirement (even under current rules Putin can’t run in 2024) pending the time is pressing, so the whole bunch of things that there is an internal consensus on (note for example who worked on so called Kudrin’s plan/strategy) because if he doesn’t pass them now and create a safe/stable system that does not depend on a single individual both Russia and himself, his circle, would be in trouble.

Onkel Neal · 01-16-20, 08:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ikalugin

I think Putin is de-facto retiring and not moving around as you would seem to imply. So doing the same thing Yeltsin did in one speech ("I am tired I am leaving") but in a more graceful and gradual way. Another example of a similar transition would be what Kazahstan is doing now. The whole "you would get killed if you oppose" is being over dramatic (and ignorant of specifics of Medvedev's term, particularly at it's start, of relationships within the state).

The key here is distribution rather than movement of power - the reform ensures that there is no seat within the state where it concentrates like it does currently with Presidency. This is done by moving significant powers of President, such as appointing PM and cabinet from President to Parliament, as well as other similar changes.

Moreover under those reforms Putin can no longer hold Presidential office (even with it's powers significantly decreased and moved to Parliament) and Medvedev can hold one term.

Possibly. But in any democratic government, there is competition between politicians at the top. In Russia's govt, no one disturbs the master, no one challenges him too effectively, or there are consequences.

Quote:

In the 1990s, Nemtsov was a political star of post-Soviet Russia's "young reformers." He became deputy prime minister and was, for a while, seen as possible presidential material - but it was Putin who succeeded former president Boris Yeltsin in 2000. Nemtsov publicly supported the choice, but he grew increasingly critical as Putin rolled back civil liberties and was eventually pushed to the margins of Russian political life. Nemstov led massive street rallies in protest of the 2011 parliamentary election results and wrote reports on official corruption. He also was arrested several times as the Kremlin cracked down on opposition rallies. In Feb. 2015, just hours after urging the public to join a march against Russia's military involvement in Ukraine, Nemtsov was shot four times in the back by an unknown assailant within view of the Kremlin. Putin took "personal control" of the investigation into Nemtsov's murder, but the killer remains at large.

ikalugin · 01-16-20, 08:53 AM

In a way, in many cases there is not real competition for the Head of State, for example in UK. And there is plenty of competition for the posts below that in Russia, as you can see with rotation of members of Government, presidential admin and so on.

As to Nemtsov - it was an action of a rogue actor and at the time Nemtsov possessed no threat to the established power. In fact he relied on support from Putin&co to get into the public office due to his own poor electability.

And people like Navalny (and others) are still alive if with criminal convictions that would preclude them from running in 2024, which they wisely got under the advise of their political consultants, as this would absolve them from any responsibility while generating martyrdom status and thus unaccountable funding (that say Navalny spends on lavish vacations instead of legal help for his supporters).

Skybird · 01-16-20, 08:54 AM

That sounds quite self-rightous a bit. But in America there is a senate whose Republican majority leader does comparable service to Trump like Medwedew does to Putin. Mitch OConnel said he will prevent any proceedings leading to the kicking of Trump NO MATTER WHAT and no matter the evidence and no matter the guilt proven. He does not care for neither laws, nor justice, that means, and I do not even dare to mention taste and style. He said he will closely coordinate his task to defeat impeachment with the WH, in other words he said he will conspire with the accused and will not allow that evidence leads to a vote that would fire the ruling boss at the top.

Its all a joke.

I see no difference in moral claim - or lack of it - there. Both the lil boy in the white house and the chess player in the kremlin play foul and bring their pieces into influential positions where they will support their grab to power best and will help them to work around laws and rules.

If the one has his Trump, he has no claim against the other's Putin. Putin is just playing the game with much more raffinesse, whereas the lil boy acts with the subtelty of a collapsing bridge pillar.

ikalugin · 01-16-20, 08:55 AM

But, hey, the reform would open up this competition by dismantling Yeltsin’s 1993 vintage super presidential system and transferring power from President to Parliament, reinforcing juridical review and so on.

The only real spicy element is the ban of people who had at any point in the past dual citizenship or residency permit from running for high offices.

Jimbuna · 01-16-20, 09:29 AM

As I've said on this forum in the past....Putin, simply put, is a democratically elected dictator.

Catfish · 01-19-20, 01:32 PM

All this here should go to the Russia politics thread

"Liberalism has outlived its purpose" — Putin
What an idiotic statement, liberalism has no other "purpose" than to give power to people. Instead to dictators. Putin would like that of course, as would the chinese "leader".
They do all to take the power away from the people, regardless what so-called newspapers or websites or the media may say.
Of course, looking at the US and brexit, he has a point. Internationalism can be destroyed, a fallback to the bad old times is possible anytime. Did the EU pocket England by force, like Russia did with Poland back then?

Translation from german:

" [...] The dismissal of the government and the changes of the basic constitutional law has caught Russians pants down. The political scientists have long tried to understand what was going on, but meanwhile it is quite obvious.

The process of the transfer of power has begun. Power is the holy grail in Russia, filled to the brim with the magic potion of omnipotence. The "transfer" of power will take place in 2024, from Putin to Putin, without wasting one drop of this holy grail.

What russian politics perform is master class in thimblerig. It does not matter where the ball is or which is its surname, the only important thing is that the hand of the player remains the same. Smokescreen genades are being fired, new names come up just like that, the "new" prime minister has worked in the treasury before.
The old prime minister will not be thrown overboard though, he will remain in the national security council as a substitute for the number two of the state.

Power remains in the hands of the former soviet secret police. They are the last of their breed. Such people are not created anymore, the works for the production of KGB-officers are wrecked, but the people with the narrow eyes and grey suits still hold the reigns of power firmly in their hands.

Russia is surrounded by enemies, populated by thieves, one should be ever so alert.
At one point 30 years ago they only left the room for a smoke, and immediately their state was gone, stolen, torn apart, betrayed and sold. This will not happen again, those officers think.
But maybe, just maybe, their time is running out."

ikalugin · 01-19-20, 07:10 PM

I like how old quotes are being taken out of context

As to the liberalism - what is currently called liberalism is more like anti-liberalism, with group rights being promoted at the expense of the individial rights and this is not the path that we want to go down (even though we did introduce various groups rights protections on the lines of the western hate speach laws).

As to the German article - that is an existing view, sure, that there would be a new position built up for Putin to transition to without loosing power, however in my opinion it is a part of confirmation bias, ie where events are being nitpicked and fitted in to work with a preconceived notion.

Note how while Medvedev is still being somewhere he lost any power that he has because the position he got moved into is advisory at best, with no real power. The comment about Mishutin is even sillier - what did you expect, a person with no experience? And Mishutin was a last minute choice based on competence, he is one of the best technocrats out there, with plenty of good reputation built on the tax system reform.

ikalugin · 01-21-20, 11:28 AM

https://www.rbc.ru/business/21/01/2020/5e27138d9a79479259b3e57d

So this guy Borisov, who used to be deputy MoD for procurement under Shoigu and moved up to be deputy PM for MIC under Medvedev now broadened his horizons with a general industry portfolio and the energy-transport complex portfolio (in addition to the MIC one).

Catfish · 01-21-20, 01:38 PM

Hm i have no idea what is really going on, but it is not completely delusional to expect Putin to remain at the helm, whatever this 'governmental position' will be called then

"... the president would retain control over appointing the heads of the security services, foreign ministry, and judiciary, among others, and be able to fire ministers and judges. Unless future revisions go substantially further, this plan is well short of real redistribution of power."

"All of this underlines just how powerful Putin is today. He alone decides what changes and what stays the same. Everyone else responds. But if Putin is calling the shots and his plans remain open to interpretation, what should we expect going forward? [...]
Putin understands that widespread frustration with economic stagnation and growing inequality means that any future government, whether helmed by him or someone else, will have to temper public discontent."

https://www.gq.com/story/putins-latest-power-grab

https://www.rferl.org/a/with-sweepin.../30381533.html

https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-medve.../30379502.html

01-16-20, 02:39 AM	#18
Catfish Dipped Squirrel Operative Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: ..where the ocean meets the sky Posts: 16,897 Downloads: 38 Uploads: 0	We will see.. at worst nothing will change. As i said before, always read between the lines, and do not put too much trust in speeches. The international press does not see it as a retreat: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-r...-idUSKBN1ZE15J __________________ >^..^<*)))>{ All generalizations are wrong.

01-16-20, 06:53 AM	#19
ikalugin Ocean Warrior Join Date: Aug 2014 Location: Moscow, Russia Posts: 3,212 Downloads: 8 Uploads: 0	The reform has been discussed for over a decade now, because post 1993 super presidential republic that Yeltsin built as the result of 1993 constitutional crisis and that Putin modified for hands on management style is not sustainable in the long term. Back in 2007 there was a plan to get the younger generation Gorbachev style and enact big reforms, but due to economic crisis, protests and geopolitical tensions only the military and later pension reforms were enacted, the rest were postponed till better times (which do not seem to be happening) and Putin got back to micromanage the situation again. Now with no real solution perceivable in short term that Putin actually works with (he solves problems as they come - hence hands on management style) and 2024 retirement (even under current rules Putin can’t run in 2024) pending the time is pressing, so the whole bunch of things that there is an internal consensus on (note for example who worked on so called Kudrin’s plan/strategy) because if he doesn’t pass them now and create a safe/stable system that does not depend on a single individual both Russia and himself, his circle, would be in trouble. __________________ Grumpy as always.

01-16-20, 08:53 AM	#21
ikalugin Ocean Warrior Join Date: Aug 2014 Location: Moscow, Russia Posts: 3,212 Downloads: 8 Uploads: 0	In a way, in many cases there is not real competition for the Head of State, for example in UK. And there is plenty of competition for the posts below that in Russia, as you can see with rotation of members of Government, presidential admin and so on. As to Nemtsov - it was an action of a rogue actor and at the time Nemtsov possessed no threat to the established power. In fact he relied on support from Putin&co to get into the public office due to his own poor electability. And people like Navalny (and others) are still alive if with criminal convictions that would preclude them from running in 2024, which they wisely got under the advise of their political consultants, as this would absolve them from any responsibility while generating martyrdom status and thus unaccountable funding (that say Navalny spends on lavish vacations instead of legal help for his supporters). __________________ Grumpy as always.

01-16-20, 08:54 AM	#22
Skybird Soaring Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: the mental asylum named Germany Posts: 40,486 Downloads: 9 Uploads: 0	That sounds quite self-rightous a bit. But in America there is a senate whose Republican majority leader does comparable service to Trump like Medwedew does to Putin. Mitch OConnel said he will prevent any proceedings leading to the kicking of Trump NO MATTER WHAT and no matter the evidence and no matter the guilt proven. He does not care for neither laws, nor justice, that means, and I do not even dare to mention taste and style. He said he will closely coordinate his task to defeat impeachment with the WH, in other words he said he will conspire with the accused and will not allow that evidence leads to a vote that would fire the ruling boss at the top. Its all a joke. I see no difference in moral claim - or lack of it - there. Both the lil boy in the white house and the chess player in the kremlin play foul and bring their pieces into influential positions where they will support their grab to power best and will help them to work around laws and rules. If the one has his Trump, he has no claim against the other's Putin. Putin is just playing the game with much more raffinesse, whereas the lil boy acts with the subtelty of a collapsing bridge pillar. __________________ If you feel nuts, consult an expert.

01-16-20, 08:55 AM	#23
ikalugin Ocean Warrior Join Date: Aug 2014 Location: Moscow, Russia Posts: 3,212 Downloads: 8 Uploads: 0	But, hey, the reform would open up this competition by dismantling Yeltsin’s 1993 vintage super presidential system and transferring power from President to Parliament, reinforcing juridical review and so on. The only real spicy element is the ban of people who had at any point in the past dual citizenship or residency permit from running for high offices. __________________ Grumpy as always.

01-15-20, 07:01 PM	#16
Onkel Neal Born to Run Silent Join Date: Jan 1997 Location: Cougar Trap, Texas Posts: 21,284 Downloads: 534 Uploads: 224	Basically Putin is setting things up so he can retain the same power when he becomes PM again or if he decides to lead the new State Council. He has never been a "President", and Medvedev is doing as he is told, he knows he will be killed if he opposes Putin.

01-16-20, 09:29 AM	#24
Jimbuna Chief of the Boat Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: 250 metres below the surface Posts: 181,120 Downloads: 63 Uploads: 13	As I've said on this forum in the past....Putin, simply put, is a democratically elected dictator. __________________ Wise men speak because they have something to say; Fools because they have to say something. Oh my God, not again!! GWX3.0 Download Page - Donation/instant access to GWX (Help SubSim)

01-19-20, 01:32 PM	#25
Catfish Dipped Squirrel Operative Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: ..where the ocean meets the sky Posts: 16,897 Downloads: 38 Uploads: 0	All this here should go to the Russia politics thread "Liberalism has outlived its purpose" — Putin What an idiotic statement, liberalism has no other "purpose" than to give power to people. Instead to dictators. Putin would like that of course, as would the chinese "leader". They do all to take the power away from the people, regardless what so-called newspapers or websites or the media may say. Of course, looking at the US and brexit, he has a point. Internationalism can be destroyed, a fallback to the bad old times is possible anytime. Did the EU pocket England by force, like Russia did with Poland back then? Translation from german: " [...] The dismissal of the government and the changes of the basic constitutional law has caught Russians pants down. The political scientists have long tried to understand what was going on, but meanwhile it is quite obvious. The process of the transfer of power has begun. Power is the holy grail in Russia, filled to the brim with the magic potion of omnipotence. The "transfer" of power will take place in 2024, from Putin to Putin, without wasting one drop of this holy grail. What russian politics perform is master class in thimblerig. It does not matter where the ball is or which is its surname, the only important thing is that the hand of the player remains the same. Smokescreen genades are being fired, new names come up just like that, the "new" prime minister has worked in the treasury before. The old prime minister will not be thrown overboard though, he will remain in the national security council as a substitute for the number two of the state. Power remains in the hands of the former soviet secret police. They are the last of their breed. Such people are not created anymore, the works for the production of KGB-officers are wrecked, but the people with the narrow eyes and grey suits still hold the reigns of power firmly in their hands. Russia is surrounded by enemies, populated by thieves, one should be ever so alert. At one point 30 years ago they only left the room for a smoke, and immediately their state was gone, stolen, torn apart, betrayed and sold. This will not happen again, those officers think. But maybe, just maybe, their time is running out." __________________ >^..^<)))>{ All generalizations are wrong. Last edited by Catfish; 01-19-20 at 01:41 PM.*

01-19-20, 07:10 PM	#26
ikalugin Ocean Warrior Join Date: Aug 2014 Location: Moscow, Russia Posts: 3,212 Downloads: 8 Uploads: 0	I like how old quotes are being taken out of context As to the liberalism - what is currently called liberalism is more like anti-liberalism, with group rights being promoted at the expense of the individial rights and this is not the path that we want to go down (even though we did introduce various groups rights protections on the lines of the western hate speach laws). As to the German article - that is an existing view, sure, that there would be a new position built up for Putin to transition to without loosing power, however in my opinion it is a part of confirmation bias, ie where events are being nitpicked and fitted in to work with a preconceived notion. Note how while Medvedev is still being somewhere he lost any power that he has because the position he got moved into is advisory at best, with no real power. The comment about Mishutin is even sillier - what did you expect, a person with no experience? And Mishutin was a last minute choice based on competence, he is one of the best technocrats out there, with plenty of good reputation built on the tax system reform. __________________ Grumpy as always.

01-21-20, 11:28 AM	#27
ikalugin Ocean Warrior Join Date: Aug 2014 Location: Moscow, Russia Posts: 3,212 Downloads: 8 Uploads: 0	https://www.rbc.ru/business/21/01/2020/5e27138d9a79479259b3e57d So this guy Borisov, who used to be deputy MoD for procurement under Shoigu and moved up to be deputy PM for MIC under Medvedev now broadened his horizons with a general industry portfolio and the energy-transport complex portfolio (in addition to the MIC one). __________________ Grumpy as always.

01-21-20, 01:38 PM	#28
Catfish Dipped Squirrel Operative Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: ..where the ocean meets the sky Posts: 16,897 Downloads: 38 Uploads: 0	Hm i have no idea what is really going on, but it is not completely delusional to expect Putin to remain at the helm, whatever this 'governmental position' will be called then "... the president would retain control over appointing the heads of the security services, foreign ministry, and judiciary, among others, and be able to fire ministers and judges. Unless future revisions go substantially further, this plan is well short of real redistribution of power." "All of this underlines just how powerful Putin is today. He alone decides what changes and what stays the same. Everyone else responds. But if Putin is calling the shots and his plans remain open to interpretation, what should we expect going forward? [...] Putin understands that widespread frustration with economic stagnation and growing inequality means that any future government, whether helmed by him or someone else, will have to temper public discontent." https://www.gq.com/story/putins-latest-power-grab https://www.rferl.org/a/with-sweepin.../30381533.html https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-medve.../30379502.html __________________ >^..^<*)))>{ All generalizations are wrong.