Russian Politics Thread

[ikalugin]

S400 is a mature system. We would sell them to US if US was buying.

[Rockstar]

Well, then it probably boils down to missed business opportunities.

[ikalugin]

Originally Posted by Rockstar

Well, then it probably boils down to missed business opportunities.

US alleges that Turkish use of S400 is going to compromise US&co security.

[Rockstar]

From what I've read about it. Some say no matter how mature it is, the S-400 system is continually upgraded and is still very capable and dangerous weapon, difficult to locate and deactivate. However on the flip side countermeasure systems are very closely guarded secrets. People like us will not know what can be done about the S-400 until the shooting starts.

The main argument against Turkey having them seems to be the S-400 detection system can transmit data about our newest aircraft. Problem I see with that argument is Turkey isnt the only one in the area with a S-400. I've read Saudi Arabia, India, China have spent multi-billions of (U.S.) dollars acquiring them. Belarus got there's for free!

General Joseph Votel told a Congressional hearing that certain allied nations are now looking to fulfill their arms needs elsewhere due to political considerations, cost, or delivery speed. "When our partners go elsewhere, it reduces our interoperability and challenges our ability to incorporate their contributions into theater efforts," he explained. Joint operations become harder to plan and manage, as the difference in weapons’ performances, handling procedures, and training of personnel mounts.

It still seems to me war is big business and for Turkey and others in their eyes it just made good political and business sense. Turkey in a historically deep divide with Russia and pissing off NATO might soon find itself being the target of both.

[Jimbuna]

Originally Posted by Rockstar

There is no rule which prohibits NATO members from purchasing Russian weapon systems. War is big business, and Turkey just gave Russia a truck load of money for these missiles. I'd bet, NATO members are just getting their panties in a wad because Turkey isn't buying their products.

What Russia needs to be wary of is Turkey providing NATO S-400 technology and capabilities. Because lets face it the divide in Turkish Russian relations has run deep for a very long time with no substantial improvements in sight.

Yeah, I suppose winds tend to blow both ways

[Skybird]

The divide in Turkish Russian interests I consider to be less prominent than is claimed. In the end the shared political opponent both want to reduce in infliueunce - Europe - is compensating. And I think Putin is fitter than Europe to handle Erdoghan's overblown ego.

I doubt however that it is strategic or economic calculation that made Turkey go for the Russian system. Its simply about Erdoghan'S blown-up ego. He is a supreme, great, superior leader who knows it all better, who take sno advice, and cannot stand to back down, you know.

As I said in the other thread, I like the way things go. If the Americans stick to their announcement, Turkey is out of the F35 programn, has lost a lot of money that Trump will not pay back, Erdoghan will be pissed, turkey is closer to leaving or getting kicked from NATO, and Europeans will need to finally realise that they have a big problem with Turkey, and with their southern military flank. I like any of these details, and if becoming real in a pack, the better! The louder the wakeup call to the EU and NATO, the greater the chance that finally somebody will wake up. Merkel has pushed Europe into great dependency from Erdoghan's good will in the migration route issue. I will find the sight of Europeans squirming and writhing before Erdoghan and then paying him more money and concessions, most entertaining.

[ikalugin]

S400 is a capable, but as I have said, a mature system. The data argument is weak because as a rule we provide source codes for software our equipment runs.

[ikalugin]

 

Ukrainian parliamentary elections. The green party is the one that is run by the current president - Zelensky and is named after the TV show he stared in (he was playing the role of Ukrainian president).


I wonder if they are the democratic regime with checks and balances that the Western nations seeked to build .

[Jimbuna]

Surely can't be any worse than that in Russia, surely

[Skybird]

In several places in Europe parties of non-established newcomers are blossoming. The Ukrainian result could become a problem for the EU if Selenski accepts to normalise relations with Russia at the price of accepting the russian strategy in the Donbass region, which would in fact be a justification for Putin's strategy. Selenski campaigned with the slogan of wanting to end the war in the East. The EU cannot like it, although the EU lacks the power and tools to challenge Putin over his way of playing the big game. It seems that Selenski's fans are a very diverse group, from Europe-friends to people who want a stronger tie with Russia again.

The general orientation is something that the Ukrainians must settle amongst themselves. And I am the last who argues on behalf of EU interests - I only recognise them as what they are, not more. That I do so does not mean I sympathise with them.

Selenski will become very uncomfortable for the EU, I think. Not because he is so strong, but because the EU is so weak.

[ikalugin]

The issue for Zelensky is in Crimea, not in Donbas. While there are plausible ways to get Donbas back in some capacity or another (though even that would be hard considering mutual de-humanisation between Kiev loyalist and Donbas separatists), Crimea is not going back into Ukraine.

[ikalugin]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

Surely can't be any worse than that in Russia, surely

Same patern that is developing across the whole Eastern Europe really. Except that in some cases (Ukraine) it is supported by the West and in some (Hungary) it is not.

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by ikalugin

The issue for Zelensky is in Crimea, not in Donbas. While there are plausible ways to get Donbas back in some capacity or another (though even that would be hard considering mutual de-humanisation between Kiev loyalist and Donbas separatists), Crimea is not going back into Ukraine.

Indeed, thats why I do not even mention Crimea any more here. He cannot win anything on the Crimea issue, but he could maybe get a peace deal with Russia over the Eastern Ukraine, with Ukrainian people probably being very tired of the ongoing war there. If he gets it, it would be a de facto recognition of the Russian strategy on both Donbas and Crimea - and in stark contrast to the official position of the EU which sees both areas as Russian annexations and does not want it getting recognised for that reason. If Selisnky gets a poecae in the east anbd leaves the Crimea as it is, Russia wins and the diplomatic psotiion of the EU is in ruins.



Another EU diplomatic strategy disaster, after Syria, Egypt, Libya, Turkey, migration, Iran, Trumponomics, and no resistance worth the name to China.

[ikalugin]

The issue is not so much with Russia - the issue is with the locals in Donbas, as Russia has already agreed on a path we would follow if Kiev does it's part. Ofc that path was unacceptable to Poroshenko's regime, which relied on the war for justifying it's actions.

If you deny their agency (that they themselves desired to rebel over legitimate cause), if you de-humanise them (by calling them drunks and drug addicts), punish civilians materially by denying pensions etc (and I am not even mentioning dubious behaviour by various non state actors like the infamous rape mansion) they are going to resent you.

And that resentment is not going to go away easily or quickly even if there are established pathways ie the Minsk set up.

[Skybird]

That clean the issue is not, the separatists in the east are far more pro-Russian and Russia-supported and -controlled than you want to admit. Moscow probably is as deep into the Donbass story as it was and is into the Crimea story. Many names that emerged over the past years as associates of the separatists or leading personnel of theirs, had very close ties to Moscow, and the Russian intelligence services, also organised crime. Even when consideri8ng the weklaness of the Kiev governments and their own corruption problems and links to organised crime in the Ukraine, I doubt there would have been a big rebellion in the Donbass like there was (and still is) without strong Russian motivation and assistance.


Putin just days ago outlined his udnerstanfing of that Russia and Ukraine, Russians and Ukrainians are practically just onew people, Western media reported. For Ukrainian ears this must sound like an unhidden threatening with things to come in the close future.