There goes Hong Kong

[Rockstar]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...d=premium-asia

“Xi feels threatened, the leadership feels threatened -- this is a crisis,” said David Zweig, an emeritus professor at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology and director of Transnational China Consulting Ltd. “This is, ‘We’re not going to give an inch, we’re going to tighten up, and Hong Kong’s national security as a potential subversive center is greater than its economic value.’”

[Aktungbby]

THEY GET HONG KONG, THEY'LL GO FOR TAIWAN NEXT....METHINKS WERE IN WWIII AND DON'T KNOW IT YET.

The world by 2049 will be defined by the realization of Chinese power. China will be the world’s greatest economic and political force, including alliances and global presence. While its power will make it the dominant state in international politics, the central issue is how China will use its power. Will China join the liberal world order or will it transform Western rules, norms, and institutions?
China’s grand strategic vision is primacy — China will and should be the dominant force in international politics. China’s vision is defined by Xi Jinping’s phrase “One World, One Dream,” which is a modern form of tianxia, or “all under heaven.” This concept serves as the foundation of China’s imperial ideology — the Chinese conception of how the world should be ordered.
The concept of “all under heaven” is the genesis of the Chinese worldview with respect to how China ought to be ruled, its position in international politics, and the subordinate role required of other states. It implies, first, an ethnic Han polity, which is inherently authoritarian. Second, it requires that a single powerful monarch, the Chinese emperor (“Son of Heaven”) should rule the entire civilized world — which by definition should be unified under the emperor’s control so that disorder and chaos may be avoided, and reason and just rule may triumph https://thediplomat.com/2018/10/the-world-according-to-china/

THE KAISER'S "SEEKING GERMANY'S PLACE IN THE SUN" AND THE 35 YEAR WAR THAT FOLLOWED, RUINING THE 20TH CENTURY(WWI & WWII AS ONE CONFLICT) COMES TO MIND...

[Rockstar]

The Thucydides Trap: Are the U.S. and China Headed for War?

In 12 of 16 past cases in which a rising power has confronted a ruling power, the result has been bloodshed.


https://www.theatlantic.com/internat...s-trap/406756/

[Jimbuna]

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has condemned China's plan to impose a new security law in Hong Kong, calling it a "death knell" for the city's freedoms.

China is seeking to pass a law that would ban "treason, secession, sedition and subversion" in Hong Kong.

Critics say the law would strip Hong Kong of the rights it currently enjoys, that are not seen in mainland China.

Mr Pompeo said the decision to bypass Hong Kong's lawmakers ignores "the will of the people".

"The United States strongly urges Beijing to reconsider its disastrous proposal, abide by its international obligations, and respect Hong Kong's high degree of autonomy, democratic institutions, and civil liberties," Mr Pompeo said in a statement on Friday.

Mr Pompeo's intervention is likely to infuriate the Chinese government, whose relations with the US have been strained recently by disputes over trade and the coronavirus pandemic.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-52771718

[Skybird]

Anyone here who seriously believed (when the Brits gave JHongkong back to China) that the Chinese would forever stick to their candy-sweet promises?

Honestly said I am surprised that they held themselves back this long.

Its not fair, but Hongkong is doomed. It always was.

Taiwan probably is next. It wants to press for WHO membership "after" the Corona crisis, but the WHO is its archenemy's playground. The Europeans play a very shameful role in it, but the US does not play much better. It only hides its indifference better.

And then there is the SouthChinese Sea.


These crisis have the potential to shake the world. But there are more, but issues like Tibet, beside being genocide, just do not impress the world. Business makes the coins rolling around. Until China starts to dictate terms and conditions.

[mapuc]

As Jim answered me in our Wuhan-thread.

(from my memory)
And who shall make them pay

Which country or countries would be interest in a confrontation with China ?

Markus

[Skybird]

Germany stopping to pay them development aid (yes, we still do that, its true...) and the West stopping to invest in China inj general, cancelling trade treaties, would be two things for a start. Massivbely boosting military defences of neighbpourign states like Phillipines, Vietnam, Japan, Australia. Establishing standing military presences in the SouthChinese Sea. Forcing Western companies to abandopne Chinese production sites. Boycotting Chinese trading goods. Putting diplomatic relations on ice infinitely.

For over four dercades we have played the soft balkl. Nursed thenm, help them growing, transferred know-how, made them strong.

Maybe its finally a clever idea to stop all these follies? If not some political idiot would immediately start yelling again that this would be "provoking" to them, and an affront, and a financial loss...?! And starting to build hurldes to the Chinese taking over Africa?

The problems we have with China today, to major shares have been fostered and grown by ourselves. and nthat includes America AND Europe.


I must admit that years ago I woke to the unpleasant reality a bit late, too. But at least finally I did woke up. Most of the West still seems to want sleeping.

[Rockstar]

Originally Posted by mapuc

As Jim answered me in our Wuhan-thread.

(from my memory)
And who shall make them pay

Which country or countries would be interest in a confrontation with China ?

Markus

I posted an article earlier in another topic. Which said Greece was relieving U.S. missile defense crews in Saudi Arabia. It then alluded to the idea we might be moving our crews/assets to the Pacific.

[Skybird]

Its through their "parliament". So, autonomous Hong Kong now is history, practically. The top godfather Xing will not stop it.

Interestingly, not a word on it in most of the German press. The Germans. Well.

Since there is no serious will displayed by the West to call China out over this, and the West already fell back from their "land taking" in the south chinese sea, and their haughty arrogant threats towards Australia, Vietnam and Japan also have not triggered a clear reaction by the West, I think the signal of Hong Kong now is that it is only a question of time before they turn against Taiwan.

With all violence as needed.

Five years, ten years, I dont know. But it will happen. The Chinese have learned since decades now that nobody will dare to stand up in their way.

Meanwhile the Germans warn against reversing globalisation and that they want to stick to their illusory "strategic partnership" with China. As if China takes Germany serious, or would need to. They are beyond that point where they needed to, since many years.

Europe's China-policy always was a most stupid and clueless one. America's as well. Reminds of the tale of the sorcerer's apprentices.

[Onkel Neal]

My simplistic (as usual) solution: all we need to do is stop trade with China cold. No more Chinese goods coming in to the country, period. Start off with federal guarantees that new companies investing in American/Canadian factories will have market subsidies and be shielded from foreign competition for 4 years. If we switch our economy over to producing the goods needed for public consumption, China will be back to a third world country.

[Catfish]

^ i guess what Skybird and Neal propose is already too late, they build their own processors and smartphones, and are in a lot of ways ahead of "the west". Sure, in capitalism they need to sell their stuff, on the other hand do they? A communist dictatorship like that? Maybe they come up with another solution..

The least thing we can do is producing own medicine and other important basic stuff, this imho includes an entirely "western" 5G network. And tighten the srews of getting our technology robbed and copied.. they have copied a whole VW car factory without the company's knowledge, and it works.

[Skybird]

Yes, I see it like Neal a bit. But the Germans with their extreme export orientation and very heavy investments in China will not do it, even less so since Covid 19 has worked as a catalyst to bring to light the inherent weakness of the German eocnomy: that Germany always consdered its export-driven model a strength while in fatc this dependecny is a wekaness and vulnerability. Germany also hate-kills its key industry: cars, first prefering electrification, then crashing the Diese,l then demonising all gasoline driven cars in general. And all the entrepreneurs who spend mone yin China to help them getting knbpoweldge transferred to them sdo that the ybecome competetive, will demand that these investements are not ust written off. Whcih woudl again be a damage to the tx payer, too.

Catfish also is right. The Chinese in many areas are no longer just second or third grade quality producers. In computers, but also othe rbranches, they set the trends, they rival for the top ranks in yearly innovations in tehcnoloigy in general, in medicine. Catfish points at something correct: China doe sno longer benefit from innovaitons made by foreign nations/eocnomies, but it drives innovations. And once again the Us is better suited to confront this, if it wants, than the EU states. Its universities and its technological corproations loike Amazon, FV, Goodle, Apple etc, are maybe capable to face confrontation with chinese and even rigged competetion: what ahs Europe here? SAP maybe, but then nothing, and the certain "Excellence" universities are internationally - sorry, more or less irrelevant.

The only otpion the Eu states seem to have is: making big-mouthed words and appealing to the Chinese not being so compettiotve. I know how this will end.

And I did not even mention to compare European and American banks. Look at the list of the biggest 100 baks in the world, and then you know what role the Europeans play in this sector: none you want to base your fate on. Plus the Euro collapsing in slo-mo.

Maybe some Europeans know what should be done. Its just that the EU now is so dependent and weak that it cannot do them. Look at the big wonderplan Super-Uschi has unveiled, 750 billion Euros for post-Corona rebuilding. Its just thatthat the EU'S share of that, 250 bn, bases on tax schemes that do not even exist and that are so quastionable that legal experts and economy experts doubt that they ever could be turne dinto reality, and that they would work as planned.

Chaising phantoms once again.

If the Chinese have to fear one thing, than it is the Americans. The Europeans are not only harmless in will, but also impotent by ability: financially, economically, culturally, educationally, and militarily anyway.

The French lost their Napoleonic grandesse. The Dutch lost their trading empire. The Brits loost their empire. The Italians lost their glorious Roman past. The Greek their ancient heritage. The Spanish thei rEuropoean dominance and South America. The Germans lost two big wars. And now it is the EU loosing its claim for relevancy. Europe, after three millenia of dramatic and fantastic history, is exhausted, is old, tired, and weak. Play again in some centuries maybe, if the human world still lasts that long. But not in the coming spans of generations. And befiore it gets there, it must survive the Chinese and the Islamic challenge. Both will last for centuries.

[Jimbuna]

Originally Posted by Onkel Neal

My simplistic (as usual) solution: all we need to do is stop trade with China cold. No more Chinese goods coming in to the country, period. Start off with federal guarantees that new companies investing in American/Canadian factories will have market subsidies and be shielded from foreign competition for 4 years. If we switch our economy over to producing the goods needed for public consumption, China will be back to a third world country.

Quite possibly but there are too many greedy business folk in the west who are always looking to maximise profits by buying from the cheapest source.

Only government legislation would have a chance of overcoming that.

[mapuc]

I guess a majority of the people in Hong Kong are hoping the west will help them.

It's China...any help is out of the question...some diplomatically pressure may come..up to a certain level.

Markus

[em2nought]

Hong Kong, Taiwan, and a return to the status quo are probably what was promised to the Chinese by the democrats in exchange for releasing the virus in order to take down Orange Man Bad. They might be jumping the gun a bit because I'm not sure they're gonna take the guy down, although those mail in ballots are distressing in a stolen election sort of way.