From single market to tragic farce

[Skybird]

This does not really fit anywhere, so a new thread.


https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitic...t-tragic-farce


He speaks my mind.

[Jimbuna]

Good article and one I tend to agree with

[Catfish]

^ no surprise here to both

Also from the article:
"Five hundred years from now, when historians look back on the COVID era, they will say that America's "Operation Warp Speed," under President Donald J. Trump, was a triumph of science and logistics."
Or maybe not.

[Kapitan]

Personally while I don't like Donald Trump he did have some good policies and did achieve a peace settlement in Korea something that has eluded many presidents since the end of the Korean war.

History has taught several things first that free trade agreements don't work and they benefit only one party.
We can see that clearly in Europe the common steel policy favors Germany the common agricultural policy favors France both negatively affected the United Kingdom and put tens of thousands of people out of work.

Free trade deals do a lot of harm to an economy but don't take my word for it DW a German media outlet did a whole 45 minuet documentary on the subject of free trade, doesn't this fly in the face of what the EU wants?

Documentry can be found here:

What Trump wanted was an America that could compete on the world stage, NAFTA had already stripped many industries from the USA such as the steel industry, much of the agricultural base as well.
So by putting tariffs up on certain things he has ensured that American jobs have been saved and that the American product is now viable on the domestic market.
Australia does the same as well with a 40% duty on imported steel from China (the USA had if I recall a 225% duty on imported steel at one stage)

Protecting ones domestic jobs and industries should not be viewed as a bad thing in fact it should be seen as a good thing and this is where the free trade deals go very wrong and we have seen it over the decades.

The European union will fail it is only a matter of time, the working population will eventually want out and yes we saw this in the UK after all who was the majority leave voter? the worker.

The European union wants to create this socialist paradise and its rapidly becoming a dictatorship, I'm not alone in that view and all I can say is within the next 40 to 50 years the European Union like the Soviet Union in my view will cease to exist as the population becomes disillusioned with all the goings on.

I am happy to debate and provide sources links and detailed descriptions and viewpoints if anyone whishes to engage.

[Skybird]

What have free trade zones to do with lobbyijf cartels and tarriffs and corrupt political backroom deals?


In Asia they have just formed the biggest free trad zone of the entir eplanet, bringing together so very different and in parts quite "hostile" to each other actors like China, Australia, Korea, Japan, Vietnam... They ignore the differences betwene their social ordrs and pltlicla animosities, worldviews and forms of government, and instead focus on - trade. First statistics they have published two weeks ago or so indicate that it seems to work for the benefit of all.



A free trade zone is not the same like globalization. I think much of what yoiu say is true for globalization, and I tend to thinki of globalization benefitting the few at the cost of the many, doing mroe harm than good. I think in Europoe we must cut it back. Tremedoeusly. Our dependency on India and China for producign medical goods and vaccines is just the latest illustrating exmaple how depending it has made us, and how vulnerable. And i do not want a free trade zone covering the whole globe, but think of it as local, regional zones, like the old EEC was. Thats was a good diea. The bad stuff started when it wanted to be much more than just a trade zone.

[Kapitan]

Originally Posted by Skybird

What have free trade zones to do with lobbyijf cartels and tarriffs and corrupt political backroom deals?

Is this exactly what the EU is all about ?

[Catfish]

Good documentary, but thngs have changed again already with the eastern trade zone. And it tells exactly what China wants to hear ...
But a good documentary. The trusty old Singer sewing machine b.t.w. was made in Japan not Germany, but doesn't matter.

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Kapitan

Is this exactly what the EU is all about ?

Yes it is, my point is one should not sink the idea of free trade zones due to the EU having corrupted the concept of it (and in main parts abandoned the idea of free trade in the wake of it, repalcing free trade with its lobbyistic regulations).

Free trade zoines of course need transparency also, so that all participants can check and see the free trade thing does not get hijacked. Another thing where the EU has horrific deficits: transparency.

[Catfish]

Originally Posted by Kapitan

Is this exactly what the EU is all about ?

I don't think so.

"Punitive tarriffs on whatever are of course protectionist measures but they keep people in jobs and help push for better production and environmental standards. If you produce something that has to meet certain standards you have to comply, you have to fulfill all local requests, which does not apply for products from abroad.

Without protective measures western producers would not hold out long against chinese competition. If they would not do it a lot of european production would vanish. And all protective measures of the EU have been accepted by the WTO."

The finance sector profits on a vast scale from free trade (read: London). "Problem is there are no global rules for taxation, allowing big companies to park their capital in offshore tax havens like Cayman islands, or Panama." An idea invented in England, but gladly followed by others. And the ten percent that hold 99,5 percent of the world capital will see to, that this never changes. And b.t.w. they are not the "left" for sure.

So this is why just of all the EU will fail? The EU is after all more behind the idea of equal rights and sometimes idiotic idealism, if it fails it is because of that. So I agree the EU does a lot wrong and has to change, but why do you think that England did, does or will do any differently? Because of what? Fairness? The UK? Towards Africa? Good luck explaining sustainability and intelligent protectionism to the banks.

[Kapitan]

One of the reasons i am sure the EU will fail is oddly not totally because of financial reasons personally I think ideology also plays a big role.

The EU loves big business and multinationals it does not care for the small guy, the corner shop owner the lone truck driver they couldn't care less about these people.

For me personally a guy who had the initial funding and wanted to start my own business, to have banks turn around and flatly say to me they wouldn't give me start up capital for running costs because the European grants I was going for were made not for new companies but for existing companies that employ 50 or more people in my industry (transport and logistics and this was 2012).

This is one subsidy the EU is making in order to increase rail freight traffic which is admiral but, the road industry suffers substantially and the other key thing is while yes you move it to rail in reality only around 70% of goods moved can actually be moved by rail and will require a truck at each end usually anyway.

https://www.joc.com/rail-intermodal/..._20190716.html

The amount of European red tape you also had to go through in order to start up is phenomenal, its not just simply apply for the O license you have to meet European legislation on financial standing (changes every January) before you even think about applying.

To get one truck on the road in the UK the capital needed in 2012 figures was £60,000 minimum of which at the time you had to prove £8,500 in financial standing in order to obtain the O license, which you need to have a European licensed transport manager (which I am)

The Crunch for me came in 2013 when the EU prohibited the UK from stopping foreign hauliers doing in excess of the agreed European Cabotage regulations, the UK was told not to interfere. I was on the RHA board at the time and was one of those who wrote a letter of protest to the government we were told there was nothing that could be done.
But here's the real crux the UK driver if found in contravention of cabotage in the EU could be fined substantially.

Another big deal for me was the European road taxes, so in Holland, Luxembourg and Belgium you have the Vignette system, in Germany the Maut, France they Payage.
Each country collected road tax from me but foreign hauliers didn't pay to use UK roads, a matter which the UK government finally in 2016 sort of sorted this out which ended up meaning non UK registered trucks had to pay £10 per day to use the UK roads (which is roughly the same as other EU countries)

UK carriers do not get a tax refund and the tax reduction was for lower emissions standards as the UK does not have a road tax (the car tax you pay is an emissions tax)

A 2019 article with the EU challenging the UK
https://www.politico.eu/article/brus...tte-directive/

The 2016 article when it all began
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...ay-Europe.html

Did you ever wonder why between 2004 and now that around 60% of the heavy goods vehicles that are on the roads in the UK are foreign registered?
The fact the UK carrier cant compete with cheaper Eastern European carriers means that even the domestic work that a lot of UK carriers require to keep busy end up going to foreign companies and they can charge extremely low rates to do it.

I always remember this one phone call I got in 2018 "can you do a Silvertown to Hoddesdon" now id charge £220 for that run which covers waiting time, fuel and drivers wages and a 1% profit.
the lady on the other end told me that a company had bid £90 for that run and she was seeing if I could beat that price.
You can imagine I told her that I couldn't and asked who was it going to and she quite loosely told me a Lithuanian company.

Now since leaving the EU I have been watching the market closely and freight rates have come up, this is in part due to foreign hauliers now being penalized for undertaking illegal cabotage.
I have also seen the increase in unaccompanied freight being transported which is a great thing for both the EU and UK it also cuts down on road levies for foreign carriers and provides work for truck drivers on both sides of the border I would say that’s a win win, before it was cheaper to ship over a truck, driver and goods keep them in the UK for about 4 to 6 weeks undertaking domestic loads as well then cycle them back to home country, A lot of this has now stopped.

Fuel in the UK is known to be one of the highest in Europe so the oil companies and petrol stations in the UK (most of which are franchised) are now benefiting from the up surge in domestic fill ups of heavy good vehicles.
Before foreign trucks would fill up in places like Luxembourg or Belgium come over work for a couple of weeks on the twin tanks (around 1,500L) bunker off another dedicated fuel supply truck therefore never paying UK fuel duties or taxes and undertaking work in the UK for extended periods.

Do you see now why they can haul freight so cheaply?

You may think this is fanciful but there’s over a decade of video and written evidence that was passed to the UK government by both the RHA and FTA on this matter and this is partly why the levy came in.
Drivers were also the target of unfair wages usually working for half what the UK driver was working for hence why in the UK there was a massive influx of Polish, Romanian, Bulgarian and other Eastern European drivers driving in the UK, the other side to this is our own fault because companies would employ them at a lesser rate usually around £80 - £100 per day (sometimes below minimum wage when doing a full 15hr shift) where a UK driver is usually on £120 - £150 per day.

Now again you may say yeah right that’s fanciful however I was a transport manager for a company that did this (I withdrew my licence in 2018) most of them drivers lived in the truck and sent money home. It is illegal to live in the truck and again yes that’s the UK fault and yes the company I worked for was part of the problem not the solution.

The drivers coming over from Eastern Europe to work allowed us to compete a bit more but not a great deal and very limited in the international market to other European countries, it got to such a point that our largest carrier Eddie Stobart ended up out flagging 1/3 of his fleet to foreign plates just so he could stay in business (at the time the company nearly went bankrupt because of this).

So that’s an oversight into just one UK industry strangled by Europe and European legislation theres others, the steel industry and also agricultural industry that were hugely negatively affected by Europe and its legislation.

The biggest beef Brexiteers had was with immigration numbers, while yes granted a lot of migration came from Europe we also took outside EU as well so I don’t share the total sentiment on this subject.
My friend and former driver Marius (Romanian) expressed to me a few years ago about how his village went from over 10,000 people and now only 1,500 are left because they have moved.
So for me there is a tale of two sides, clearly this is not good for Romania because of the brain drain nor is it good for the UK with cheap unskilled unregulated labour coming in to the market place.

I am one of these unique people that hold both UK and Canadian citizenship, however to get my Canadian citizenship I had to prove I would be benefiting the Canadian economy and that I am qualified to undertake any role I am employed to do otherwise id not be granted it.

If we look at numbers we can see that in 1950 the UK population stood at 50,616,014, in 1993 (when the EU became what it is today) that number was 57,602,284 in 2000 the number was 58,923,309 then in 2004 (when Poland joined the EU) 59,872,753 the number in 2007 when Romania and Bulgaria joined 62,145,092 and today 2021 the number stands at 68,207,116.
Admittedly these are not all from the EU I just used the date points, and this also doesn’t include the births increasing the population.

So since 2000 there is 10 million more people in the UK, that’s more growth in population in 21 years than the 43 years between 1950 the baby boomer generation and the inception of the EU in 1993 the figure for that is 6,986,270.

https://www.macrotrends.net/countrie...dom/population

This kind of population growth isn’t realistically sustainable, and the UK is not alone in this Germany, France, Spain and Italy have all had similar waves of immigration.

Ask yourself why did Sweden and Denmark suspended the Shengen arrangement in 2016? Bear in mind my former companies head office was in Copenhagen and I used to travel there and to Sweden a lot, every time I went across the Oersund I had to produce my passport both sides and if I travelled down to Germany as well, this has been on going since 2016 and no one will be letting it up any time soon.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...-a6796696.html

A lot of my former Co workers in the EU countries (mainly Denmark, Sweden, Germany and Holland) have started turning against the EU and their reasoning is that it doesn’t support the little guy any more its not the human rights its they are working more now than ever, being slapped with red tape they don’t need or want, being forced to comply with regulations that are not needed or wanted and their own government is powerless to stop it all being introduced.

The EU does have some good points its not all bad I admit that, I love the idea of moving around no borders, and being able to work in other countries but you know I can still do that even after Brexit (I’m doing it now)

So one of the points you made was the financial sector, and yes a lot of companies off shore, pretty simple tax avoidance, well from a layman’s view point and as some one who is a retail trader on the markets I can see why.

So in the UK I was a 40% tax payer my last P60 I earnt £122,636.21, so I paid 40% on every £1 above £50,001 so in 2019 I paid £29,054.48 for earnings above that figure, I paid 20% tax on £60,066.21 (allowing for £12,570 before taxation starts) so I paid £12,013.24 , combine that together with the 40% I paid in 2019 a total of £41,067.72 in income tax (this doesn’t include National insurance or pension contribution).

Can I see why people use tax avoidance schemes absolutely and there is a definite market for them, I didn’t earn enough to warrant using one as I was below the 45% bracket.

When the UK left the EU it didn’t really dent our financial sector which is still even after the vote and Brexit the second largest financial sector in the world (behind New York and only became second in 2013) it did de value our currency by around 16% which was to me anyway expected (yes I made a few quid on that one) in reality the UK pound sterling needs to be close to the Euro to compete post Brexit so goods and services can be more competitive.

https://www.longfinance.net/programm.../gfci-29-rank/

https://www.cityam.com/innovation-is...ncial-capital/


Overall in conclusion the EU will fail for many varied reasons most of it will likely be down to ideology and cultural difference not business, it will eventually come down to the people like it did in the Soviet Union and former Warsaw pact countries .

You can already start seeing cracks in the system, one such crack we can look at is Denmark in 2015 the country rejected the new Europol amendments a vote of 53% said no to it.
Don’t forget that Denmark also in 1992 voted against the Maastricht treaty which was to formulate the EU, they only voted to accept it in 1993 after substantial concessions.

This was something our then prime minister John Major never even gave us the vote on ! thus the UK population never voted to enter into the EU only the European Common Market in 1975 which are two different things. (by its own admission the European Union was founded November 1st 1993 switching from a Trade and Economic Union into a full Political Union)
Also note Major led us into the ERM and subsequently caused a huge financial crisis in doing so, this led to Black Wednesday and the UK having to leave the ERM.

So when I look over things the UK will compete against the EU in a lot of areas, over here in Canada they are already talking extending trade deals to the UK, Canada is also talking about leaving the trade arrangement with the EU as its costing Canada money.

When you say fairness no business is not fair never has been never will be and as a block you are slightly more hindered especially when you consider you have to include all the other member states in your negotiations.

Now its more gloves off and I do honestly see bigger and brighter things happening for the UK, and in the transport industry at least I am starting to see this.

The banks hold all the cards and they are the most important sector in a capitalist society, if you look back through history there is a financial cycle of boom and bust it always made me chuckle when Gordon Brown stood up and said “ Sustainable financial industries, there will be no more boom and bust” here is a man who does not understand finance, the financial sector or indeed economics (something I have studies myself)

There is a boom and bust it takes place usually every 20-30 years the last one was 2008 the previous one was 1987 (small one in 1993) before that was 1975 minus the war and rebuilding years the depression of 1929 prior to that 1907.

The capitalist system is based on debt and debt leveraging, also buying on margin as well as fractional reserve banking being the now standard practice.
There is no currency including the world reserve currency (US Dollar) that is back by anything tangible and if you don’t believe me pull out a bank note from you wallet you will see “I promise to pay the barer the sum of” written on it, all this is is a promissory note that the government will pay to the value of in goods. up until 1972 the US dollar was backed by Gold Nixon suspended that and created what we now have which is the FIAT currency system

Will the banks want to change this of course not so in or out of the EU the system is unfair agreed, but I don’t think this will be the cause of the EU collapse, I believe it will be ideology and cultural differences.

[Skybird]

Heeh...!!! Stop stealing my trademark!

[mapuc]

To your information I can tell you that the leaders in EU has a dream

Europe today.....the world tomorrow

Markus

[Jimbuna]

Originally Posted by mapuc

To your information I can tell you that the leaders in EU has a dream

Europe today.....the world tomorrow

Markus

Maybe and if so, not the US or UK

[Catfish]

Originally Posted by mapuc

To your information I can tell you that the leaders in EU has a dream
Europe today.....the world tomorrow
Markus

Did you visit some conspiracy sites lately?

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

Maybe and if so, not the US or UK

What?

Ah i see. You wrote "If so" which is of course nonsense. And "if not so", certainly the US or UK ?

[Catfish]

@Kapitan i think your naval reports are better researched, but i already wrote i am not interested in writing my mind or correct others any more about politcal views, even or especially when i think they are wrong.

But since i already wrote this an hour ago.. you base your opinion on driving a truck through Europe, sorry but this does not hold water. There may be a lot of problems from fuel prices to unfair conditions, but then just wait how this will develop from now on. You can blame it all on the EU, this is of course the easiest thing to do, and from the molehill outlook it may even make some local sense. But i think you can blame certain bloody companies and greed, not the EU - the latter provides some framework but not all, it does not dictate fuel prices, also those special energy taxes are added by the nation's governments.
I only need to look at the 20ieth century and the lies that are official "truth" now; if certain people think that concocting facts, conspiracy theories, believing in royal supremacy or Quanon or whatever will help them on their way to their special success, be it to rule the world, destroy it, or thinking they are doing something positive by being aggrressive, no one can hold them back. No post here will change anything.

@Mapuc Europol is not a bad thing, and its data bases are of course also used by the UK (treaty from february 2021) even after leaving the EU. The new proposal that has been rejected by Denmark is about privacy protection in the digital age of encryption and anonymity to fight terrorism, and this is what a politically left majority in Denmark rejected for whatever reason.
IMhumblestO Denmark was quite dumb to reject the Europol idea, after all Europol is like Interpol not a bad thing, Denmark only rejected the new idea about privacy and defending anonymity in the new environment of social media while still trying to fight terrorism across borders – and it looks like fighting terrorism across borders was the reason for the politically left danish majority to reject it. Was that necessary, or good? Doesn't matter, their decision, alright.

But then suddenly Denmark still wanted to take part in it without being a member, even thought about a referndum to reverse the decision to get out of Europol.
But "European Commission Vice President Frans Timmermanns has advised Danes to forget a cross-border policing deal after quitting the European police agency, Europol.
“I’m afraid not,” he told Danish broadcaster TV2. “You can't be slightly pregnant, you're either pregnant or you're not. If you vote to be out of Europol, you're out of Europol. I don't see on the basis of the legal situation any alternative for that.” Last December, Danes voted in a referendum to reject a government proposal."

Some new treaties from this year see to correct it, but it's of course not worth a line in the sensational yellow press.