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Old 03-06-21, 02:36 PM   #1
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Default China's navy battle force has more than tripled in size in only two decades

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/03/05/c...dst/index.html


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China's shipbuilding numbers are staggering -- dwarfing even the US efforts of World War II. China built more ships in one year of peace time (2019) than the US did in four of war (1941-1945).

A - rapidly decreasing - technological advantage gets you so far only, and not further. From one point on, superior numbers and the capability to compensate losseds by factors quick than the enemy, simply overwhelm said enemy by force of much bigger numbers.



In the 70s and 80s many said NATO would have gained air superiority due to tehcnically advanced ifhgers, compensating for superior numbers of the Warsaw Pact. But there are quite some veteran pilots from that age that both say the technological upper hand of NATO was being overestiumated, and that it thus would not have been sufficient to compensate for the numerical superiority of the WP.



And different to the Warsaw Pact back then, China is of equal technological capability, and superior economic power, and more favourable logistics lines.



It does not look good. The outlook looks even worse.
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Old 03-06-21, 04:39 PM   #2
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Originally Posted by Skybird View Post
https://edition.cnn.com/2021/03/05/c...dst/index.html





A - rapidly decreasing - technological advantage gets you so far only, and not further. From one point on, superior numbers and the capability to compensate losseds by factors quick than the enemy, simply overwhelm said enemy by force of much bigger numbers.



In the 70s and 80s many said NATO would have gained air superiority due to tehcnically advanced ifhgers, compensating for superior numbers of the Warsaw Pact. But there are quite some veteran pilots from that age that both say the technological upper hand of NATO was being overestiumated, and that it thus would not have been sufficient to compensate for the numerical superiority of the WP.



And different to the Warsaw Pact back then, China is of equal technological capability, and superior economic power, and more favourable logistics lines.



It does not look good. The outlook looks even worse.
The CCP are very good at stealing and copying technology. *Every* chinese person in a foreign country should be considered a spy - whether a willing or unwilling participant.
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Old 03-06-21, 04:51 PM   #3
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The CCP are very good at stealing and copying technology. *Every* chinese person in a foreign country should be considered a spy - whether a willing or unwilling participant.
Let's just push attacks on people of Asian Descent shall We?
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Old 03-06-21, 04:58 PM   #4
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Let's just push attacks on people of Asian Descent shall We?
The CCP ensures that all Chinese students are sending back anything useful during their studies.

They entice academics and those working in industry to steal research and products.

They lean on immigrants who still have family in China.

https://www.newsweek.com/china-invol...-theft-1255908

No one is calling for attacks on asian people. People however, do need to be vigilant that their valuable IP isn't going to wind up being exploited.
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Old 03-08-21, 06:53 PM   #5
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There is a cyber war being waged against the US by China and other countries, and the US-instigated this by hacking the Iranian nuclear program back in 2008 or something. The US also fights back with computers, this is a war that hasn't erupted into military war yet. And the fact that China is building up their ships and military seems to say to me that they are preparing for war.
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Old 03-11-21, 01:56 PM   #6
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I think we are missing one huge point and a few small ones here and it is something both the USN and PLAN are very aware of.

While China in terms of hull count does have the largest navy in the world it does not have the largest logistics network.
Ultimately NATO has the largest logistics network spanning the entire globe with members and associate members (Sweden Singapore India Malaysia Thailand Japan South Korea Australia and New Zealand to name a few)

With the current incapability to keep multiple battlegroups supplied on an indefinite time frame away from friendly ports this means the only thing china has actually built is a blue water capable navy that's very strong regionally (Similar to Russia), Basically what we are looking at is a sea denial force.

The other pressing matter is the USN even with having less numbers in its fleet can overwhelm the Chinese in the use of battlefield missiles, the USN is capable of sending more ordinance down range than china, the gap is substantial.

The type 055 DDG for example fields a 112 cell VLS in theory at least that's 112 missiles it can use offensively (you never would because you need some for defense).
16 are planned and 2 are built and either active or on sea trials, this doesn't hold a candle to what the USN has.

The Ticonderoga class which would be considered its peer competitor, has 122 VLS cells and theres currently 22 of them active (yes i know a few will retire soon) but even if you cut the fleet down to 16 to match the type 055 plan you still have 160 more missiles than your opponent.

The current 67 active Arleigh burkes also field 90 VLS cells (Batch 1) and 96 VLS cells for newer Batches, China is reliant on its corvettes and frigates to bridge that gap.

Currently the ratio of missiles to field in battle between the USN and PLAN is a factor of 2 to 1 in the USN favor.
Oh and we haven't even got to the carriers or submarines !

A friend of mine Commander Keith Patton wrote this article it may interest some of you.

http://cimsec.org/battle-force-missi...rOUeKYxpTDXtfc
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Old 03-11-21, 06:43 PM   #7
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Kapitan, you said it yourself: China is a regional access denial force, but with the clear aim to become internationally potent as well.



You must count their coastal foiri8ng assets as well, p0lus their loandbased airforce, and their enormous landbased numbers of coastal anti-ship missiles.


If a DDG empties its vertical laucnh tubes, it mist go home and reload and come back, andntzat takes long time. The supply chains for China are very, very much smaller.



Their focus currently probably is the South Chinese sea, and the waters around Taiwan.


The US navy is set up globally, and even if they focus on a war zone and send most shiops there, they will nevertheless maintain significant ressources for other global reigons - and for protecting their long, long long supply lines. Which are very vulnerable.


So, I must stay more sceptical than you. Even mnore since mentally the Chiense state and people and their huge numbers in platform and missiles allows them to digest significantly heavier losses, than the US home crow or military numbers.



Only one factor speaks against a war, and that is the fact that the war idnex of China is as low as that of the US. Both nations demographically are kind of unlikely, form that index' logic, to easily stumble into a h8ige, assive war with high losses.


The war index makes a statement on the ratio between very old, combat incapable men in as society, and young, combat-capoable and aggressive men. An index og one means that for 1000 old men dying, 1000 young men are there to take their place in the demogroahci structure. Both the US and China are short of 1 only (US 0.96 and China 0.99), whereas the countries where wars have occured in the past 40 years all have (had) indices as high as 4-6.5, means for thousand old men dyiong, 4-6.5 thousand young men are there to repoalce them in socity. A low war index means it is an old, overaged, not-eager-to-conquer and not-wanting to-suffer society.



Afghnaistan, both for the USSR and the US, were wars that they could not have won from the start on, becasue they were fighting aganst a hopelessly high war index, which over the wars even raised further.



The US has since WWII not taken on an real equal enemy anymore, it may have started wars against enemies it underestimated, but not knowingly against enemies of equal capability and striking power. And the US must pay more attention to the mood of the public at home, than China.


These considerations are decisive to make and to understand. Its the one thing that speaks against China going bollocks all of a sudden. On the other hand, like Western and Russian nations before, they too may not pay attention - or do: and start a war before their age structure in society detoriates even further against war - and start something because they think they can get away with it. This is an aspect I find impossible to make any predictions on. They politically now act far more aggressive than ten years ago I would have thought to be realistic to expect then. And they clearly plan to dominate the world, economically, logistically, and militarily, they build networks of alliances and bases all around, whereever nations are stupid enough to let them in.
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Old 03-12-21, 04:31 AM   #8
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Today I know of three german/international companies, whose computer systems have now failed due to the chinese "Hafnium" exploit, one has several server farms controlling CAD machines in other countries – all stopped now. No autofallback or failover saved them.

edited: The chinese exploit opens the innards of MS Exchange mailing systems and other data so emails, calendars and project data can be read and copied. Once identified and resistance being ramped up, it is expected to open the door for worse and real damaging action, like encrypting data and harddisks so they become unreadable, with no chance to get it back or working. There is a patch out now, but there are some preconditions to be met, like certain updates installed before and so on. Certain older versions of Exchange cannot be fixed, but those have not been targeted (yet).

This is known as to be running since january, 2021. Smells like a declaration of war..
https://nycboss.com/2021/03/10/china...ts-escalating/

Would not agree with Kapitan's take on the naval situation, thanks to developing and installing airports and harbours along the african coast their naval capaility is not entirely restricted to the mainland. Also https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/String..._(Indian_Ocean)

I always wonder why someone would make deals with a dictatorship that has aggressive world domination written all over its banners. Western companies should not be allowed to produce there, from VW to Apple, and whatnot.
And of course no telecommunication bought or installed, by, or from them.
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Old 03-12-21, 11:52 AM   #9
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https://edition.cnn.com/2021/03/11/a...hnk/index.html
The light and the shadow.
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Old 03-14-21, 11:38 AM   #10
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Kapitan, you said it yourself: China is a regional access denial force, but with the clear aim to become internationally potent as well.

This is true that is correct they are predominantly a regional denial force

You must count their coastal foiri8ng assets as well, p0lus their loandbased airforce, and their enormous landbased numbers of coastal anti-ship missiles.

Very much so however I was focusing purely on Naval only peer to peer, with the Airforce it does add an entirely new dimension to the frame, it also closes the BFM gap that's very correct.
However; your also now having to factor in 5 or 6 aircraft carriers plus assets land based in Japan Guam Philippines and South Korea for the Americans which doesn't quite match the Chinese but it certainly decreases the numbers they would be able to use against a USN Fleet.
This will tie up a large resource pool for the Chinese, also the United States currently has the capability to launch a lot of Tomahawk missiles targeting the land bases and systems something the Chinese A) Don't Have and B) Cant reach.


If a DDG empties its vertical laucnh tubes, it mist go home and reload and come back, andntzat takes long time. The supply chains for China are very, very much smaller.

That is true it does have to return as do the Chinese assets, your also failing to realize that South Korea, Guam and Japan are huge weapons caches for the USN which in turn shortens that chain dramatically, these ports will be open to the USN in the event of war with China.


Their focus currently probably is the South Chinese sea, and the waters around Taiwan.

That is their stated aim


The US navy is set up globally, and even if they focus on a war zone and send most shiops there, they will nevertheless maintain significant ressources for other global reigons - and for protecting their long, long long supply lines. Which are very vulnerable.

The supply lines your talking about and this is something I work in, they are long however the threat level is actually quite low.
A scenario is likely to play out that the USN will contain China in the SCS and it will air lift weapons over land while commercial and MSC vessels will re supply the main fleet bases in Japan Guam and South Korea.
Its only when the asset gets close and the estimate they put on it is 300nm from the base (mainly Guam) that the asset becomes in scope of being targeted.



So, I must stay more sceptical than you. Even mnore since mentally the Chiense state and people and their huge numbers in platform and missiles allows them to digest significantly heavier losses, than the US home crow or military numbers.

China like to Soviet Union of WW2 has the capability to take more casualties than the USA not just physically but in public opinion as well.
A war with China is not just going to be a war with huge material loss either it is going to be basic economic suicide for both parties.
I have more optimism that the USN can hold its own simply because of its resource pool, the quality of training, the fact that its troops are battle experienced (china's are not) and all of this has shown to make a difference even when numbers are against you (take a look at the battle for goose green 1982)


Only one factor speaks against a war, and that is the fact that the war idnex of China is as low as that of the US. Both nations demographically are kind of unlikely, form that index' logic, to easily stumble into a h8ige, assive war with high losses.


The war index makes a statement on the ratio between very old, combat incapable men in as society, and young, combat-capoable and aggressive men. An index og one means that for 1000 old men dying, 1000 young men are there to take their place in the demogroahci structure. Both the US and China are short of 1 only (US 0.96 and China 0.99), whereas the countries where wars have occured in the past 40 years all have (had) indices as high as 4-6.5, means for thousand old men dyiong, 4-6.5 thousand young men are there to repoalce them in socity. A low war index means it is an old, overaged, not-eager-to-conquer and not-wanting to-suffer society.



Afghnaistan, both for the USSR and the US, were wars that they could not have won from the start on, becasue they were fighting aganst a hopelessly high war index, which over the wars even raised further.



The US has since WWII not taken on an real equal enemy anymore, it may have started wars against enemies it underestimated, but not knowingly against enemies of equal capability and striking power. And the US must pay more attention to the mood of the public at home, than China.


These considerations are decisive to make and to understand. Its the one thing that speaks against China going bollocks all of a sudden. On the other hand, like Western and Russian nations before, they too may not pay attention - or do: and start a war before their age structure in society detoriates even further against war - and start something because they think they can get away with it. This is an aspect I find impossible to make any predictions on. They politically now act far more aggressive than ten years ago I would have thought to be realistic to expect then. And they clearly plan to dominate the world, economically, logistically, and militarily, they build networks of alliances and bases all around, whereever nations are stupid enough to let them in.

Indeed I think we can assume that no one wants a war regardless of age group, personally I couldn't see the snowflake generation going off to fight like they did in 1939 it would be all about understanding and peace love caring and don't want to offend anyone.

I can see exactly why you made the statements you did, with the belton road and silk road initiative China is trying to replicate the same hold the west has over the world.

I stress this point though, right now the Chinese while rapidly advancing do not yet have the logistical capability the west does, it also does not have all the areas of the globe covered like the west does.
China would find it hard if not impossible to re supply areas of operation in combat conditions simply because of location and size of the supplies needed.

Do i think that eventually they will get there? Yes I do probably by my estimate around the mid 2040's. but as of today in 2021 they don't have the capability.

Nations that have let the Chinese in are generally odd ball, 3rd world or need huge investment and that's something China is willing to do and the west is not.
There is also a cultural dimension notice how China moves in and out of Muslim states while the west is vilified this is because IMHO China goes in and does not want to change their culture as they have no interest in religion.
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Old 03-14-21, 11:58 AM   #11
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Would not agree with Kapitan's take on the naval situation, thanks to developing and installing airports and harbours along the african coast their naval capaility is not entirely restricted to the mainland. Also https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/String..._(Indian_Ocean)
My first comment on the threat was looking at it from a pure Navy v Navy

As I said above in reply to Skybird, when you add in the air force you change the dimension of the war.

We should also factor in the the USA will operate from Guam, South Korea and Japan giving them a similar reach.
I also pointed out that while these overseas territories exist for china the biggest problem it would have is re supplying them during combat.

In order for China to get to the African coast and Indian ocean there's only one route really open to them, and all the USN has to do realistically is park a few SSN's and a couple of DDG's and the merchant ships wont be going much further.
The supply lanes from the west coast USA to various spots near China are move secure because they have a lack of land mass, if you think nations like the Philippines, Vietnam, Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia are going to sit back and not feed information about shipping movements to the five Eyes your heavily mistaken.

At any given day coast watchers post on facebook and other media outlets movements of ships, and at some point the Chinese supply ships will have to pass through close to land some where to make it into the Indian Ocean.
If its not the coast watchers it will be the VTS system and any ship not displaying AIS your likely to trigger a response from that countries maritime patrol system (especially Singapore)


The west will try to blockade the Chinese in the SCS this means re supply could only realistically be done via air which is unlikely.
Any supply ship heading down into the Indian ocean is likely going to be intercepted detained or sunk and that will mean any forces in that area will end up out of supplies.

As I said to Ikalugin in another thread the reason why France and UK are tier 2 blue water navies (China and Russia are Tier 3) is because both have the ability to operate indefinitely beyond their borders and have friendly ports in every corner of the globe (China doesn't have this yet) so its down to supply chains (which is what I work in).

The Islands the Chinese are building are vulnerable and they know it (history has shown us this) its more of a tactic to slow down and deplete rather than use a serious main force base.

China can absorb massive losses and still fight and the big thing is Chinese troops are not battle trained like the US forces and that really does matter and the reason it matters well again look back in History to 1982, take a look at the battle of goose green Argentina out numbered the British almost 2 to 1 and still lost.

In reality though I do strongly believe that any war between the USA and China will not be limited to just these two parties.
I do think that The USA will be allied with Japan, South Korea, UK, France and Australia (the exercises and foreign polices denote this)

I also strongly doubt Russia will want to be involved and I don't think it will come in on the side of the Chinese at all, the Iranians might but then that would also provoke the Gulf States.

Either way the outcome for both is clearly going to be Economical Suicide.
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Old 03-27-21, 07:48 AM   #12
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More sobering news, fully supporting my growing scepticism on the US being capable to defend Taiwan. (If they even would be willing to embark seriously on this self-destructive task, which I am not convinced of).

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/nat...could-n1262148

Some people think the future by terms from the past (a mistake militaries make time and again: assessing the expected next war by the standards of the last war which they had won), and necessarily conclude that things are okay, kind of.

US alliances and bases throughout Asia will not help it there. It will not last long enough. Plus they will be busy with mere own survial. Just this: mere own survival. And I think quite some will not. China has the means in missiles to just overflood any technologically advanced defence. America is too overconfident.
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Old 03-28-21, 04:17 PM   #13
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Implications of growing Chinese internal and external challenges

July 8, 2020, 11:55 AM IST SD Pradhan in Chanakya Code, World, TOI

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/...al-challenges/

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China which has expansionist approach of the 18th Century, keeps its military budget fairly high. For the last several years its defence budget was increasing in double digit. Even now when the economy is suffering, it is kept high. At the National People’s Congress in May this year, Beijing announced a military budget of $178.6 billion for 2020 and said it would grow by 6.6 per cent year-on-year. The military budget stood at $175 billion in 2018 and $177.5 billion in 2019. The aim is to deter US as it considers that if it has to establish its hegemony in the world, it must have parity with US militarily. It is pushing the Chinese economy further downwards.
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Old 03-28-21, 04:39 PM   #14
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Isn't it more than the quantity of how many ships, subs, bombeplane and regular troops a country have ?

Shouldn't things like technologies be part of it.

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Old 03-28-21, 06:18 PM   #15
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Isn't it more than the quantity of how many ships, subs, bombeplane and regular troops a country have ?

Shouldn't things like technologies be part of it.

Markus
I said it often already: technological quality can copensate for numericla inferiorit yonly to a certain degree - and not further.

Also a technologicla platform still cannot be in severla places simultaneously.

It also does not have a cat's nine lives. If you only have limited numbers of platfoms, every saingle loss weighs the heavier, is more difficult to replace, and increases the risks for the so far surviving platforms.

BTW, i wold not tak eit for granted anynore that the Chinese militarey is technologically so inferior as many still seem ti imply. That was twenty years ago. Today they drive many technological innovations instead of just stealing and robbing them from others. In some high tech fields they dominate, I think. Due to the US pressure and sanctions and the Huawei row launched by the US, they have multiplied their efforts to become independent from Western and US chip production.
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